Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Is Associated with Lung Cancer Mortality in a Prospective Study of Never Smokers
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Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Is Associated with Lung Cancer Mortality in a Prospective Study of Never Smokers Michelle C. Turner1, Yue Chen2, Daniel Krewski1,2, Eugenia E. Calle3, and Michael J. Thun3 1 McLaughlin Center for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health, and 2Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada; and 3Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia Rationale: Several studies have suggested that previous lung disease may increase the risk of lung cancer. It is important to clarify the AT A GLANCE COMMENTARY association between previous lung disease and lung cancer risk in the general population. Scientific Knowledge on the Subject Objectives: The association between self-reported physician- A number of factors, including a personal history of certain diagnosed chronic bronchitis and emphysema and lung cancer mor- nonmalignant lung diseases, have been postulated to corre- tality was examined in a U.S. prospective study of 448,600 lifelong nonsmokers who were cancer-free at baseline. late with susceptibility for developing lung cancer. Methods: During the 20-year follow-up period from 1982 to 2002, 1,759 lung cancer deaths occurred. Cox proportional hazards mod- What This Study Adds to the Field els were used to obtain adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for lung cancer mortality associated with chronic bronchitis and emphysema as Increased lung cancer risk is associated with nonmalignant well as for both of these diseases together. pulmonary conditions, especially emphysema, even in life- Measurements and Main Results: Lung cancer mortality was signifi- long nonsmokers. cantly associated with both emphysema (HR, 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06, 2.59) and with the combined endpoint of emphy- sema and chronic bronchitis (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.22, 4.90) in analy- ses that combined men and women. No association was observed with chronic bronchitis alone (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.72, 1.28) in the be biased by residual confounding from smoking. Furthermore, overall analysis, although the association was stronger in men (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.95, 2.66) than women (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.58, nearly all previous investigations are case-control studies and 1.16; p for interaction, 0.04). The association between emphysema may be subject to biases in exposure assessment because patients and lung cancer was stronger in analyses that excluded early years with lung cancer may preferentially recall their experience of of follow-up. chronic lung diseases. Because lung cancer is highly fatal, many Conclusions: This large prospective study strengthens the evidence that of these studies use a large proportion of proxy respondents increased lung cancer risk is associated with nonmalignant pulmonary (from 32 to 65%), or surviving cases only (4–6, 8, 10, 11). Patients conditions, especially emphysema, even in lifelong nonsmokers. with symptoms of lung cancer can be misdiagnosed as having other lung disease. Several, mostly small, prospective studies Keywords: lung neoplasms; pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive; including current and former smokers also reported inverse rela- bronchitis, chronic; pulmonary emphysema; United States tionships between lung function and lung cancer incidence or Lung cancer is currently the leading cause of cancer death in mortality (12). the United States (1). In 2006, it is estimated that a total of Studies in China have also reported similar findings; however, 174,470 new cases and 162,460 lung cancer deaths occurred (1). it has also been established that the high rates of both chronic Although cigarette smoking accounts for the great majority of obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer found, lung cancer cases, there are many who smoke but who do not including in studies of lifelong nonsmokers, are believed to result develop this disease; there are also nonsmoking lung cancer primarily from indoor air pollution due to coal burning and cases (2). A number of other factors, including a personal history fumes from cooking oil (13–23). It is therefore unclear to what of certain nonmalignant lung diseases, have been postulated to extent the COPD disease process may contribute to lung cancer correlate with susceptibility for developing lung cancer (3). risk, or whether both COPD and lung cancer are a consequence Several studies have suggested that chronic bronchitis and of the underlying exposure, or perhaps a combination of both. emphysema may increase the risk of lung cancer (4–11). Most It is important to clarify the association between chronic of the lung cancer cases in published studies occurred in current bronchitis and emphysema and lung cancer in the general popu- or former cigarette smokers; thus, the observed associations may lation. In this article, we examine the association between chronic bronchitis and emphysema and lung cancer mortality in a large population of lifelong nonsmokers in the United States using data from the Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) cohort. (Received in original form December 11, 2006; accepted in final form May 3, 2007 ) Correspondence and requests for reprints should be addressed to Michelle C. METHODS Turner, M.Sc. McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa, One Stewart Street, Room 318A, Study Population Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5. E-mail: mturner@uottawa.ca The CPS-II cohort is a prospective study of cancer mortality established Am J Respir Crit Care Med Vol 176. pp 285–290, 2007 Originally Published in Press as DOI: 10.1164/rccm.200612-1792OC on May 3, 2007 by the American Cancer Society. Nearly 1.2 million study participants Internet address: www.atsjournals.org were enrolled by over 77,000 volunteers in 1982. Participants were
286 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF RESPIRATORY AND CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE VOL 176 2007 recruited in all 50 states as well as the District of Columbia and Puerto participant characteristics (Table 1). The prevalence of chronic Rico. Participants were at least 30 years of age at baseline. A self- bronchitis and emphysema diagnosis tended to increase with administered questionnaire was completed at baseline that ascertained increasing age. Females and alcohol consumers were more likely a variety of demographic, medical, and lifestyle data. No sickness- to report chronic bronchitis compared with males and non– related exclusion criteria were applied for the baseline data collection. The Emory University School of Medicine Human Investigations Com- alcohol consumers. Chronic bronchitis also tended to increase mittee approved all aspects of the CPS II study. with increasing exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. Parti- The vital status of study participants is determined every 2 years. cipants reporting previous occupational exposures tended to re- The National Death Index has been used for computerized linkage and port a greater prevalence of previous lung disease diagnosis at follow-up since 1989 (24). Previously, volunteers ascertained the vital baseline. status of participants they had enrolled, with confirmation by obtaining Table 2 describes the relation between lung cancer mortality the corresponding death certificate. As of December 31, 2002, 385,245 and chronic bronchitis and emphysema measured at baseline in participants had died (32.5%), 796,476 were alive (67.2%), and 2,840 never smokers. Lung cancer mortality was significantly associ- (0.2%) had follow-up terminated in September of 1988 due to insuffi- ated with emphysema (hazard ratio [HR], 1.66; 95% confidence cient information to link to the National Death Index. Over 98% of interval [CI], 1.06, 2.59) and with the combined endpoint of deaths have been assigned a cause. Participants were excluded if, at baseline, they reported prevalent emphysema and chronic bronchitis (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.22, cancer (except nonmelanoma skin cancer) (82,340), were a current or 4.90) in analyses that combined men and women. No association former smoker (607,261), or if their smoking status was unknown was observed with chronic bronchitis alone (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, (46,360). In total, 448,600 never smokers were retained for analysis, 0.72, 1.28). among which 1,759 lung cancer deaths occurred. Sensitivity analysis revealed the HR for emphysema alone without chronic bronchitis was 1.39 (95% CI, 0.78, 2.43). The Ascertainment of Previous Lung Disease and Cancer Deaths HR for chronic bronchitis alone without emphysema was 0.86 The baseline questionnaire listed 25 different diseases and prompted (95% CI, 0.63, 1.18). The association between emphysema and the participant to indicate those for which he or she had ever been lung cancer strengthened when analyses excluded early years of diagnosed by a doctor. The listing included chronic bronchitis and follow-up (Table 3). Few significant interactions were observed emphysema. A combined category of both chronic bronchitis and em- (Table 3); however, the association between chronic bronchitis physema was also constructed, because these diseases often coexist in patients with COPD, and there may also be less misclassification among and lung cancer was stronger in men (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.95, participants reporting both conditions (25). 2.66) than women (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.58, 1.16; p for interaction Cancer deaths were classified by the underlying cause of death ⫽ 0.04). Because the association between lung disease and lung according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) (26, 27). cancer mortality did not vary significantly by follow-up time, the Lung cancer deaths were defined by the following ICD codes: 162 (ICD proportional hazards assumption did not appear to be violated. 9 [9th revision]) and C33-C34 (ICD 10 [10th revision]). DISCUSSION Statistical Analysis Lung cancer death rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated ac- The principal finding in this large prospective study is that in- cording to lung disease status and were directly age-standardized to the creased lung cancer mortality was associated with a history of age distribution of the entire CPS-II cohort. Cox proportional hazards emphysema, even among persons who had never been active models were used to examine the independent effects of chronic bron- smokers. The association was stronger among those who re- chitis and emphysema, as well as the combined category of both chronic ported both emphysema and chronic bronchitis, and increased bronchitis and emphysema, on lung cancer mortality. The baseline in analyses that excluded early years of follow-up, consistent hazard in the proportional hazards regression models was stratified by with a causal relationship. Although no association was seen 1-year age categories, sex, and race (white vs. other). Follow-up time since baseline (1982) was used as the time axis. The survival times of between lung cancer and chronic bronchitis in the overall analy- those still alive at the end of follow-up were censored. Estimated hazard sis, there was some suggestion of a sex difference, with chronic ratios were adjusted for education, marital status, body mass index, bronchitis possibly being more strongly associated with lung occupational exposures (asbestos, chemicals/acids/solvents, coal or cancer in men than women. stone dusts, coal tar/pitch/asphalt, formaldehyde, diesel engine ex- Most (4–6, 9, 10) but not all (8) of the case-control studies haust), alcohol consumption, passive smoking exposure, and quintiles conducted in the United States have reported stronger associa- of vegetable/fruit/fiber and fat intake (28). tions between lung cancer and emphysema than with chronic To examine potential biases in lung disease diagnosis, sensitivity bronchitis. Self-reported emphysema was strongly associated analyses were conducted focusing on the joint effects of chronic bronchi- tis and emphysema on lung cancer mortality, and the effect of consecu- (odds ratio, 2.87; 95% CI, 2.20, 3.76) with lung cancer in the tively excluding deaths (events or censored) in the first 1 to 5 years of largest, hospital-based case-control study of both male and fe- follow-up. In addition, interaction terms were entered into the multivar- male cases from Texas (9), whereas no such association was iate models to examine whether the association between previous lung found for bronchitis. Four population-based studies of women disease and lung cancer mortality was modified by sex, age at baseline (4, 5, 10, 11) have reported relative-risk estimates ranging from (⬍ 55 yr, ⭓ 55 yr), or attained age (⬍ 70 yr, 70–79 yr, ⭓ 80 yr) (2). 1.9 to 2.7 for emphysema, and from 0.9 to 1.7 for chronic bronchi- Two-sided p values were calculated to assess the significance of the tis. All but one (11) of these studies included current or former interaction term at the p ⫽ 0.05 level using the likelihood ratio statistic. smokers, as well as never smokers, and controlled for the effect The proportional hazards assumption was tested by assessing the sig- of smoking in multivariate analyses. No clear patterns have been nificance of an interaction term between previous lung disease and follow-up time. All analyses were conducted using SAS version 8.2 (29). observed in analyses by histologic subtype of lung cancer (4, 6, 11), although the number of cases within specific subtypes is small. RESULTS The current study using CPS-II data permitted an evaluation Previous physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis and emphy- of the association for the first time among a large cohort of sema were reported by 2.7 and 0.5% of lifelong nonsmokers, lifelong never smokers, thereby avoiding complex interrelation- respectively, at baseline. A total of 0.2% of nonsmokers reported ships with smoking, which may obscure any causal inferences having a diagnosis of both chronic bronchitis and emphysema. relating to lung disease and lung cancer risk. Although changes The prevalence of reported lung disease varied according to in smoking status were not evaluated for the full CPS-II cohort,
Turner, Chen, Krewski, et al.: COPD and Lung Cancer Mortality 287 TABLE 1. SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF NEVER-SMOKING PARTICIPANTS OF THE CANCER PREVENTION STUDY II AND PREVALENCE OF PREVIOUS LUNG DISEASE AT BASELINE (1982) Prevalence of Previous Lung Disease (% )† No. of Subjects Chronic Bronchitis Emphysema Chronic Bronchitis Characteristics (n ⫽ 448,600)* (n ⫽ 13,908) (n ⫽ 2,430) and Emphysema (n ⫽ 721) Overall 2.7 0.5 0.2 Age, yr ⬍ 45 52,199 2.1 0.1 0.1 45–54 140,485 2.2 0.2 0.1 55–64 141,889 2.7 0.5 0.1 65–74 82,231 3.6 1.0 0.3 75⫹ 31,796 4.1 1.7 0.4 Sex Male 121,780 1.7 0.8 0.2 Female 326,830 3.1 0.4 0.1 Race White 416,327 2.7 0.5 0.2 Other 32,273 2.2 0.6 0.2 Education High school graduate or less 188,047 2.8 0.6 0.2 Some college or more 254,113 2.7 0.4 0.1 Marital status Married 361,315 2.6 0.5 0.1 Other 84,512 3.4 0.6 0.2 Body mass index, kg/m2 ⬍ 18.5 8,257 3.5 1.8 0.5 18.5–24.9 226,394 2.5 0.6 0.2 25–29.9 150,157 2.6 0.4 0.1 30⫹ 53,030 3.7 0.5 0.2 Beer consumption Yes 37,346 2.2 0.6 0.1 No 129,143 2.9 0.6 0.2 Wine consumption Yes 59,499 2.5 0.5 0.2 No 113,211 2.9 0.6 0.2 Liquor consumption Yes 45,089 2.4 0.5 0.1 No 124,817 2.9 0.6 0.2 Vegetable/fruit/fiber intake, quintiles 1 81,502 2.6 0.7 0.5 2 81,446 2.6 0.5 0.1 3 81,579 2.7 0.5 0.1 4 78,129 2.7 0.5 0.1 5 82,385 2.8 0.5 0.1 Fat intake, quintiles 1 81,008 2.7 0.5 0.2 2 81,008 2.8 0.5 0.2 3 81,008 2.6 0.5 0.1 4 81,008 2.7 0.5 0.1 5 81,008 2.7 0.6 0.2 Passive smoke exposure 0h 207,567 2.4 0.5 0.2 ⬎ 0 to ⬍ 3 h 92,937 2.6 0.5 0.1 3 to ⬍ 6 h 34,720 2.8 0.5 0.1 6⫹ h 113,376 3.3 0.6 0.2 Asbestos Yes 11,037 4.1 1.2 0.3 No 437,563 1.5 1.7 0.2 Chemicals/acids/solvents Yes 37,165 3.6 0.9 0.2 No 411,435 2.6 0.5 0.2 Coal or stone dusts Yes 11,911 4.6 1.8 0.4 No 436,689 2.7 0.5 0.2 Coal tar/pitch/asphalt Yes 4,370 4.0 1.4 0.3 No 444,230 2.7 0.5 0.2 Formaldehyde Yes 10,031 3.9 0.9 0.3 No 438,569 2.7 0.5 0.2 Diesel engine exhaust Yes 21,774 3.0 1.1 0.3 No 426,826 2.7 0.5 0.2 * Percentages not summing to total reflect missing data. † Percentages age-standardized to the age distribution of the entire Cancer Prevention Study II cohort (except for age).
288 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF RESPIRATORY AND CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE VOL 176 2007 TABLE 2. RELATION OF LUNG CANCER MORTALITY TO CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE AMONG NEVER SMOKERS IN THE CANCER PREVENTION STUDY II COHORT, UNITED STATES, 1982–2002 Minimally Adjusted Fully Adjusted No. of Lung Hazard Ratio† Hazard Ratio‡ Previous Lung Disease Cancer Deaths Person-Years Death Rate* (95% CI ) (95% CI ) Chronic bronchitis Yes 48 210,569 19.0 0.96 (0.72, 1.28) 0.96 (0.72, 1.28) No 1,711 7,932,210 21.1 1.00 1.00 Emphysema Yes 20 35,418 42.0 1.71 (1.10, 2.66) 1.66 (1.06, 2.59) No 1,739 8,107,361 21.0 1.00 1.00 Chronic bronchitis and emphysema Yes 8 10,585 52.6 2.50 (1.24, 5.02) 2.44 (1.22, 4.90) No 1,751 7,907,377 21.1 1.00 1.00 Definition of abbreviation: CI ⫽ confidence interval. * Per 100,000 person-years, age-standardized to the age distribution of the entire Cancer Prevention Study II cohort. † Age, sex, and race stratified. ‡ Age, sex, and race stratified, and adjusted for education, marital status, body mass index, occupational exposures, beer, wine, and liquor consumption, vegetable/fruit/fiber intake, fat intake, and passive smoking. they were assessed among a subset of participants enrolled in the combination of both, with or without inherited familial predispo- Nutrition Cohort in 1992/1993 (2, 30). The prospective follow-up sition. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that lung dysfunction also aided in eliminating many of the potential limitations of among lifelong nonsmokers is an important population health previous studies, including differential recall bias and the use of issue. large numbers of proxy respondents. Physician-diagnosed lung disease measured at baseline was Several investigations also reported a positive association ascertained by self-report and may be associated with a certain between asthma and lung cancer risk (31) but these are subject degree of misclassification. The basis of the physician diagnosis to many of the limitations described above. In our previous is also unknown. The prevalence of previous lung disease in the analysis of the CPS-II cohort, we reported a modest association current study appears to be similar to, although slightly lower (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.79, 1.56) between a history of asthma and than, that reported in other studies in the United States (11, 33, lung cancer mortality in never smokers (32). 34). The prevalence of self-reported physician-diagnosed chronic The main limitation of this study, and of other studies of this bronchitis or emphysema in lifelong nonsmokers in the U.S. type, is that we are unable to distinguish whether COPD is in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) the causal pathway for lung cancer or whether both COPD and I and II, and the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination lung cancer are related to an underlying exposure, or some Survey overall, was 3.7% in men and 5.1% in women (33). The TABLE 3. SENSITIVITY ANALYSES OF THE RELATION OF LUNG CANCER MORTALITY TO CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE AMONG NEVER SMOKERS IN THE CANCER PREVENTION STUDY II COHORT, UNITED STATES, 1982–2002* Chronic Bronchitis Emphysema Chronic Bronchitis and (n ⫽ 12,199) (n ⫽ 2,430) Emphysema† (n ⫽ 721) Follow-up exclusions 1 yr 0.91 (0.68, 1.23) 1.43 (0.89, 2.32) 2.16 (1.03, 4.55) 2 yr 0.91 (0.68, 1.23) 1.51 (0.93, 2.44) 2.27 (1.08, 4.77) 3 yr 0.90 (0.66, 1.23) 1.59 (0.98, 2.57) 2.38 (1.13, 5.02) 4 yr 0.92 (0.68, 1.26) 1.58 (0.96, 2.59) 2.52 (1.20, 5.31) 5 yr 0.95 (0.69, 1.30) 1.68 (1.02, 2.76) 2.70 (1.28, 5.68) Sex Male 1.59 (0.95, 2.66) 1.42 (0.70, 2.88) 3.60 (1.34, 9.73) Female 0.82 (0.58, 1.16) 1.82 (1.03, 3.21) 1.82 (0.68, 4.87) p for interaction 0.04 0.73 0.90 Age at baseline ⬍ 55 yr 0.79 (0.35, 1.77) 1.43 (0.20, 10.2) — ⭓ 55 yr 1.07 (0.79, 1.46) 1.93 (1.23, 3.04) p for interaction 0.56 0.71 Attained age ⬍ 70 yr 0.86 (0.46, 1.61) 3.83 (1.43, 10.26) 4.76 (1.18, 19.10) 70–79 yr 1.59 (1.04, 2.44) 3.70 (1.91, 7.16) 4.25 (1.36, 13.24) ⭓ 80 yr 0.93 (0.56, 1.52) 1.41 (0.67, 2.98) 2.22 (0.71, 6.90) p for interaction 0.19 0.11 0.62 Values represent hazard ratios, with 95% confidence intervals in parentheses. * Age, sex, and race stratified, and adjusted for education, marital status, body mass index, occupational exposures, beer, wine, and liquor consumption, vegetable/fruit/fiber intake, fat intake, and passive smoking, where appropriate. † Small numbers precluded the evaluation of age at baseline interaction for chronic bronchitis and emphysema.
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