Cash transfers during the pandemic in Peru: Lessons and policy recommendations
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Cash transfers during the pandemic in Peru: Lessons and policy recommendations Samy del Pilar Gálvez Vargas Master of Public Administration, Class of 2021, London School of Economics and Political Science Photo by Pixabay on Pexels Photo cropped and modified to black and white
ABSTRACT The cash transfer scheme implemented in Peru during the COVID-19 pandemic has supported 8.4 million households during the enforcement of one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. The story of its design and implementation amid a context that required swift response is featured by pre-pandemic challenges as the high degree of informality and the low levels of financial inclusion, and the lack of clear communication of the measures adopted. There has been a crucial learning process that must be harnessed by authorities for the sake of the effectiveness of social assistance interventions. To that end, based on evidence from comparable regions, the country’s efforts should be aimed at improving the comprehensiveness and management of citizen datasets, the strategy of public policy communication, and the adequacy of the delivery methods of the cash transfers.
[Cash transfers during the pandemic in Peru: Lessons and policy recommendations] INTRODUCTION Peru enforced one of the most timely and rigorous lockdown policies globally to stem the infections of the novel coronavirus. As such, the state of emergency was accompanied by national quarantine measures that lasted for 107 days. Being aware of the far-reaching economic effects of the pandemic, the government has devised an economic plan equivalent to roughly 20% of its gross domestic product centred on four axes (Graph 1). The second thrust comprises several measures to support economically the most vulnerable households (4.8% of GDP), among which the monetary transfer policy is the principal tool (1.9% of GDP). The latter policy will be the focus of this brief. Cash transfers have been widely implemented since the emergency began. Indeed, they have been deployed in 131 countries, with an average coverage of 15% of the world population and of 22% of Latin America and the Caribbean (Gentilini et al., 2020). The general rationale behind the implementation of cash transfers during the pandemic is that these can smooth the consumption of vulnerable population groups while encouraging them to comply with the rules of social distancing (Braun & Ikeda, 2020). This policy tool becomes more relevant in developing regions such as Latin America, where the rate of poverty and informal workers exceed 30% and 60%, respectively (ECLAC, 2019; David et al., 2020). 39
THE PUBLIC SPHERE | 2021 ISSUE GRAPH 1: ECONOMIC RESPONSE TO COVID-19 (% OF GDP) Main measures Cash transfers Electricity bonus 4.8 Food baskets Work disability 12.5 1.8 0.6 allowance Support for students Resources for front line services to attend the emergency Economic support to micro and small enterprises Economic support to vulnerable households Payment chain and support to the economy Own elaboration. Source: Ministry of Economy and Finances of Peru (2020). The structure of the document is as follows. First, the main features of the transfer programme are described. A second section elaborates on the challenges that authorities have faced during the implementation. The last section presents proposals to enhance the social assistance policy in the current context of the pandemic and future emergencies. BONO FAMILIAR UNIVERSAL The Bono Familiar Universal is the broad name for what has been the temporary response to alleviate the income loss of vulnerable households, in a context where most of them have been prevented from working due to movement restrictions. Since the measure was announced, the design and implementation of the subsidy policy have been modified to consider the different conditions among workforce groups and thus extend the scope of the economic support. As such, four categories of bonuses can be distinguished (Table 1). In total, Bono Familiar Universal would have reached 8.4 million households (63% of total households 40
[Cash transfers during the pandemic in Peru: Lessons and policy recommendations] in Peru) providing them with a monthly transfer equivalent to US$ 2181. The scheme includes two payments delivered in phases according to the payment method. The first payment was delivered between March and May and the second one started in October and finished in December 2020. The first bonus, Bono Yo me Quedo en Casa, targeted mainly households in urban areas classified as poor and extremely poor by the national targeting system (SISFOH, Spanish acronym). The second, Bono Trabajador Independiente, targeted households with self-employed workers with a total family income of up to US$ 343. The third, Bono Rural, targeted the poorest households in rural areas, and excluded households with active users of social assistance programmes. 41
Poor or extremely poor Rural areas D.U. 042- Recipients of social programmes Pension 65, Bono Rural S/ 760 (US$ 218) 1.1 2020(19/04/20) Juntos and Contigo are excluded Household members cannot be mayors, regional governors or MPs Rural and urban areas. Not beneficiary of the previous bonuses D.U. 052- Fulfil at least one of the 3 conditions: 2020(05/05/20) Poor or extremely poor, Bono Familiar D.S. 214-2020- Be affiliated to any of the three cited social Universal EF(04/08/20) programmes, S/ 760 (US$ 218) 3.8 (tranches I D.S. 223-2020- and II) EF(09/08/20) Non-poor and any member in the private D.U. 098- or public payrol, and iv) Household income 2020(20/08/20) up to S/ 3,000 (US$857) Household members cannot be mayors, regional governors or MPs THE PUBLIC SPHERE | 2021 ISSUE 1/D.U. is the abbreviation in Spanish of Urgency Decrees enacted by the Executive and D.S. to Supreme Decrees enacted by the Ministry of Economy and Finances 2/Average monthly exchange rate between March and September. Own elaboration. Sources: Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion and Ministry of Economy and Finances. 42
43 [Cash transfers during the pandemic in Peru: Lessons and policy recommendations] TABLE 1: BONO FAMILIAR UNIVERSAL Monthly transfer amount Beneficiaries Bonus Legistlation /1 Household targeting criteria (million of /2 households) D.U. 027- Bono Yo me 2020(15/03/20) Poor or extremely poor 2 fortnightly payments of Quedo en 2.726773 D.U. 044- Urban areas S/380= S/ 760 (US$ 218) Casa 2020(21/04/20) Non-poor Independent workers D.U. 033- Household income up to S/ 1,200 (US$ 343) Bono 2020(27/03/20) 2 fortnightly payments of Trabajador Recipients of social programmes Pension 65, 0.78 D.U. 036- S/380= S/ 760 (US$ 218) Independiente Juntos and Contigo are excluded 2020(10/04/20) Household members cannot be mayors, regional governors or MPs
THE PUBLIC SPHERE | 2021 ISSUE In a final stage, Bono Familiar Universal, included households in rural and urban areas that had not received any of the previous transfers mentioned and that met the criteria detailed in Table 1. After completing this registry (first tranche), many households claimed that they had not yet been included. In response, the government authorised excluded households to register or update their socioeconomic status in the platform of the National Registry of Households and thus, be eligible for the transfer (second tranche). In the end, 3.8 million households were added to the entire beneficiary database. Regarding the operativity of the policy, three aspects should be underlined: the registry of beneficiaries, the delivery mechanisms, and the communication strategy. The initial database of beneficiaries was drawn from the Padrón General de Hogares, which is administered by the SISFOH and contains socioeconomic information on citizens. Then, the geographic and poverty criteria were applied to obtain the first list of recipients. As the subvention increased its scope to other population groups that demanded economic support, other databases managed by different public institutions were employed to build the final list of beneficiaries. The process of integrating the databases was notably intensive during the last stage of the policy, in which excluded vulnerable households were given a time window to register their socioeconomic information. In terms of the implementation, initially, the delivery was made through bank windows, instead of digital mechanisms. That decision brought consequences and social discontent about how the cash transfer scheme was deployed. Then, as the beneficiary registry became larger due to the approval of the other bonuses, more modality payments were established. Households could verify if they qualified for the subsidy in the web platform and once their eligibility status was verified, they were assigned one of five payment methods. These included bank drafts at the counter, deposits in an account, ATM or agents withdrawals 44
[Cash transfers during the pandemic in Peru: Lessons and policy recommendations] using mobile banking, and securities transporting companies to reach households located in areas of difficult access. Pertaining to the communication approach, in addition to the information published on the web platform, the government enabled an e-mail contact and a free telephone line for inquiries in order to avoid unnecessary movements to financial branches. In rural areas, people could go to the Tambos2, places where 2. Part of the social programme individuals can access the platform Bono Familiar Universal and ‘Plataformas de receive guidance. Acción para la Inclusión Social’ that seeks to increase MAJOR CHALLENGES access to social and economic activities and services of the poor and extremely Implementing massive transfers to the vulnerable groups in a poor population, especially in rural timely and secure manner amid a pandemic was challenging at areas. every stage of the policy. First, the lack of a comprehensive and up-to-date targeting database of households significantly limited the policy. Indeed, several databases needed to be merged and even created from mid-March to the beginning of June to identify the vulnerable households including workers with volatile or low incomes (most of them informal workers). For instance, the initial beneficiary database did not have a record of household financial information, which initially prevented the authorities from considering digital mechanisms as a form of payment. As a result, beneficiaries had to attend financial offices in person and long lines were observed outside the banks3. 3. Bono: se reportan largas colas en For the delivery stage, the low levels of financial inclusion at exteriores de banco the regional level have been a critical issue. In fact, only 40.4% para cobrar subsidio económico de S/ 380 and 15.5% of the adult population at the national level hold a (2020). debit account and a credit card, respectively4. In terms of financial 4. Superintendence of Banks, Insurance, infrastructure, there is a considerable gap in the available network and Pension Fund of financial channels between the capital (Lima) and the rest of Administrators (2019). the regions. Finally, another key challenge was the way in which the cash transfer policy and its following changes (nine regulations) were 45
THE PUBLIC SPHERE | 2021 ISSUE communicated to the targeted households and, in general, civil society. The adjustments generated confusion to the point that citizens preferred to go personally to the banking agencies, which resulted in agglomerations and exacerbated social distress. In many cases, people stated that they went to the offices for inquiries because the information on the web platform was not accurate. In other cases, people attended personally because they did not feel familiar with the digital payment method that had 5. Banco de la been assigned to them5. Nación: ¿por qué en el Perú se producen largas colas para cobrar los bonos? POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS (2020). The policy recommendations centres on: enhancing the development and management of comprehensive databases; effectively communicating key aspects of the cash transfers policy to agents of interests and, accelerating the efforts to increase the financial inclusion of vulnerable groups in the most efficient and safe manner. During an emergency, effective implementation of cash transfers requires primarily good available data. That is, comprehensive, reliable, and up-to-date citizen databases that facilitate the process of identifying and extending the support to beneficiaries. Some developing countries with such an advantage over data have been able to strengthen their social assistance programs. This has been the experiences of Brazil, China, Colombia, and Indonesia, which responded by increasing the coverage of their current wide-ranging safety net programmes (Shang, Evans, An, 2020). In contrast, in Peru, the coverage of the database used for the main social assistance programs was narrowed to the poor and extremely poor and was outdated (Jaramillo, Ñopo, 2020). As such, extending the coverage entailed significant efforts to build new beneficiary registries based on 11 46
[Cash transfers during the pandemic in Peru: Lessons and policy recommendations] databases from different government bodies. In the short-term, the government must take advantage of that joined database and continue their efforts to improve it, with the purpose of better targeting the current and future social programmes. In that direction, Una et al. (2020) suggest that developing countries could enhance their targeting databases by allocating the task of identification of potential beneficiaries to local and regional governments, private sector entities, non-profit organisations, and community councils. These organisations play a decisive role in minimising the error of exclusion of those households located in remote areas. Also, as more data sources become available, the government should allocate sufficient resources to integrate them efficiently. In that regard, Prady (2020) highlights the integration of three elements: a trustworthy citizen identification system with financial and communication access databases. For instance, India has been able to deploy a universal safety program thanks to the integration of its biometrical digital identification system with other household surveys on the use of financial services and mobile connectivity (Prady, 2020). Furthermore, it is crucial that authorities validate the final list of beneficiaries and the financial information used to deliver the transfer (bank account, mobile banking). This (ex-post) step would address issues related to households receiving more transfers that they should or ‘ghost’ recipients (Una et al., 2020). Likewise, authorities must consider the relevance of communicating the policy in a timely and adequate manner throughout the country. In this regard, Peru could have designed a better communication strategy, especially in the last stage of the Bono Familiar Universal, in which potential beneficiaries were prompted to register or update their household information in a 10-day window. Social unrest during this period could have been minimised if potential beneficiaries would have had more communication means to enrol themselves such as a mobile 47
THE PUBLIC SPHERE | 2021 ISSUE application and call centres (Prady, 2020), rather than only the web platform. Plus, it is essential that local governments get engaged in the devising and implementation of public campaigns tailored to the characteristics of the region (such as communications infrastructure). Furthermore, given the emergency, it has been crucial to choose payment methods that both reach vulnerable groups timely and minimise personal contact. For that purpose, the government’s actions should be oriented to a digital delivery, which entails increasing the financial inclusion of the potential transfer recipients. It must be emphasised that geographic, socioeconomic, and behavioural aspects need to be pondered into the adequacy of certain payment modalities. For instance, in Colombia, a joint work between the government and mobile operators companies has been key for adapting the delivery strategy of the cash transfer Ingreso Solidario to the geographical differences of the country (given that regions might differ in the types of mobile network technologies). In that way, authorities ensure not only that the information details of the transfer reach the interested recipients but also that they are provided with suitable choices to receive the transfer (Prady, 2020). Regarding policies to increase the financial access during an emergency context, Ecuador simplified the requirements for agents to disburse cash payments, which resulted in an increase in the number of access points by 4,000 (Prady, 2020). Another interesting approach is the association of the national ID to a bank account, as Chile did with its Cuenta Rut to deliver the Bono Covid-19 to more than 2 million people with low incomes. 48
[Cash transfers during the pandemic in Peru: Lessons and policy recommendations] REFERENCES Braun, R., Ikeda, D.(2020) Why cash transfers are good policy in the Covid-19 pandemic? [Online], Center for Quantitative Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Policy Hub , No. 04-2020. Available from: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/ media/documents/research/publications/policy-hub/2020/05/14/why-cash- transfers-are-good-policy-in-the-covid-19-pandemic.pdf [25 September 2020]. Banco de la Nación: ¿por qué en el Perú se producen largas colas para cobrar los bonos? (2020) El Comercio, 24 August. Available from: https://elcomercio.pe/respuestas/ bono-familiar-universal-banco-de-la-nacion-por-que-se-producen-largas-colas- para-cobrar-bonos-en-el-peru-subsidio-midis-banco-de-la-nacion-760-soles- aglomeraciones-banca-celular-multired-revtli-noticia/ [20 September 2020]. Bono: se reportan largas colas en exteriores de banco para cobrar subsidio económico de S/ 380 (2020) Gestión, 23 March. Available from: https://gestion.pe/peru/ coronavirus-en-peru-bono-380-soles-reportan-largas-colas-en-exteriores-de- centro-bancario-de-santa-anita-para-cobrar-subsidio-economico-cuarenten- a-estado-de-emergencia-covid-19-nndc-noticia/?ref=gesr [20 September 2020]. David, A. et al. (2020), Latin America’s Informal Economy Dilemma [Online] International Monetary Fund. Available from: https://blog-dialogoafondo.imf.org/?page_id=12943 [30 September 2020]. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) (2019), Social Panorama of Latin America, 2019, Santiago: United Nations Publications. Available from: https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/44989/1/S1901132_en.pdf [30 September 2020]. Gentilini, U. et al. (2020), Social protection and jobs responses to Covid-19: a real-time review of country measures, Covid-19 Living Paper [Online], Washington, D.C., World Bank Group. Available from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/590531592231143435/Social-Protection-and-Jobs-Responses-to-COVID-19-A-Real- Time-Review-of-Country-Measures-June-12-2020 [30 September 2020]. Jaramillo, M., Ñopo, H. (2020), Covid-19 y el shock externo: impactos económicos y opciones de política en el Perú [Online] PNUD Latin America and the Caribbean, C19 PDS No. 5. Available from: https://www.latinamerica.undp.org/content/rblac/ es/home/library/crisis_prevention_and_recovery/covid-19-y-el-schock-externo-- impactos-economicos-y-opciones-de-.html [30 September 2020]. Ministry of Economy and Finances of Peru (MEF) (2020), Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework 2021-2024 [Online]. Available from: https://www.gob.pe/institucion/mef/ informes-publicaciones/1126475-marco-macroeconomico-multianual-2021-2024 [30 September 2020]. Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion (2020), Inform n° 017-2020 MIDIS/GA to the Peruvian Congress [Online] Peruvian Congress. Available from: http://www.congreso. gob.pe/Docs/comisiones2020/InclusionSocialDiscapacidad/files/respuestas_de_ entidades/respuesta_midis_cuestionario_preguntas.pdf [30 September 2020]. National Institute of Statistics and Informatics of Peru (INEI) (2020), Perú: Condiciones de vida de la población en riesgo frente a la pandemia del Covid-19 [Online]. Available from: https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/ Lib1745/libro.pdf [30 September 2020]. 49
THE PUBLIC SPHERE | 2021 ISSUE Prady, D. (2020), Reaching Households in Emerging and Developing Economies: Citizen ID, Socioeconomic Data, and Digital Delivery [Online] Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund. Available from: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ SPROLLs/covid19-special-notes [30 September 2020]. Shang, B., Evans, B., An, Z. (2020), Expenditure Policies in Support of Firms and Households [Online] Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund. Available from: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLs/covid19-special- notes [30 September 2020]. Superintendence of Banks, Insurance, and Pension Fund Administrators of Peru (2019), Peru: report on financial inclusion indicators of the financial, insurance and pension systems [Online]. Available from: https://intranet2.sbs.gob.pe/estadistica/ financiera/2019/Diciembre/CIIF-0001-di2019.PDF [30 September 2020]. Una, G. et al. (2020), Digital Solutions for Direct Cash Transfers in Emergencies [Online] Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund. Available from: https:// www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLs/covid19-special-notes [30 September 2020]. 50
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