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Advances in Water Resources 32 (2009) 969–974 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Advances in Water Resources journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/advwatres Preface Weather radar and hydrology 1. Introduction This article is a preface to a special issue journal that has been initiated in parallel to the International Symposium Weather Radar The growing concerns about environmental and climate change and Hydrology, held in Grenoble and Autrans, France, in March issues, as well as the emergence of the concept of sustainable 2008. This event continues a series of symposia originally called development enshrined in the European Water Framework Direc- Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar that started in 1989 tive (WFD) legislation, has modified the requirements for future at the University of Salford, UK. This first symposium was followed hydrological observation and modelling initiatives and techniques. by the Hannover (1992), Sao Paulo (1995), San Diego (1998), Kyoto Originally, the focus at larger catchment scales was on the water (2001) and Melbourne (2004) meetings. The main objective of the stream flow at a limited number of locations, essentially for oper- 2008 symposium was to promote the use of quantitative precipita- ational purposes such as flood prediction, dam regulation and tion estimates (QPE) derived from weather radar technology in hydropower production as well as hydrological process under- hydrological sciences and their applications. The symposium was standing. Water is now considered under its multiple functions composed of two events: such as water supply, hydrological risk, hydropower, irrigation, tourism, ecological value, to name a few. The demand for better (i) A 3-day conference held on 10–12 March 2008 in Grenoble. hydrological understanding and techniques has thus moved to a The programme was composed of 5 keynote speeches, 52 more integrated prediction of the water balance components (rain- oral and 80 poster presentations covering the multiple fall, runoff, water storage, transpiration, evaporation, groundwater aspects of radar physics, radar QPE and distributed hydro- levels, etc.) at every point within a region [21]. In addition, consid- logical modelling. This scientific material (abstracts, eration of land-use and human-induced landscape modifications is extended abstracts, oral presentations) can still be accessed now a major concern for water management problems (i.e. for on the symposium web site at the following address: http:// flood forecasting) and impact studies of land use change on stream www.wrah-2008.com. flow, pollutants and/or sediments transport. For most of these (ii) A 2-day workshop held on 13–14 March 2008 in Autrans questions, knowledge of the general characteristics of water bal- (Vercors). The workshop was dedicated to thematic discus- ance components is not sufficient, more detailed process under- sions aimed at summarizing the symposium results and standing (i.e. storm responses) throughout the landscape are investigating future research directions. required. The development of distributed and/or semi-distributed hydrological models, where there is a greater representation of In the following, a presentation of the most promising tech- the land-surface heterogeneities and the characterization of dis- niques for radar rainfall QPE is proposed in Section 2 prior to a dis- tributed inputs, are thus increasingly necessary. The usefulness of cussion about some of the challenges of distributed hydrological distributed hydrological models has been questioned, mainly due modelling (Section 3). A set of recommendations is made in Section to overparameterization problems, parameter estimation and vali- 4 to foster the use of weather radar in hydrologic sciences. Section dation limitations [9,43,8]. Such difficulties cannot be ignored but 5 briefly introduces the articles of the special issue. the continuous development of hydrological observation and land- scape characterization techniques are likely to offer renewed pos- 2. The most promising techniques for radar rainfall estimation sibilities in this field. We must recognise there is an inevitable compromise between the complexity of the model proposed, and Real-time rainfall detection and estimation as well as rainfall the spatial data that is available to drive the model (inputs) and ro- nowcasting have been the main motivations for the deployment bustly evaluate its predictions. of operational weather radar networks over the past six decades. We suggest weather radar technology offers a unique means for Although the qualitative value of radar networks is unquestioned, characterizing the rainfall variability over the range of scales and the complex technology of weather radar systems combined with with the space-time resolutions required for a large variety of the variety of uncertainty sources and the strong variability of pre- hydrological problems. This is especially true for risk management cipitation at all scales [30] has limited the quality of radar precip- in urban and mountain watersheds characterized by fast dynamics itation estimates [37] and therefore the use of radar QPE in and for which rainfall monitoring and nowcasting are critical operational hydrology. [21,37]. For the largest scales, continental rainfields derived from Measurement artefacts (e.g., clear air echoes, ground and sea radar networks may also provide valuable information in terms clutter, anthropogenic targets such as wind mills, airplanes, etc.) of water budget in complement with climatologic networks and are a first very important limitation for quantitative use. In spite of satellite imagery. automated identification techniques now being routinely 0309-1708/$ - see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.03.006
970 Preface / Advances in Water Resources 32 (2009) 969–974 implemented for conventional radars (i.e. single-polarization non- Although much less established, microwave links rainfall mea- coherent Doppler radar in the following), residual artefacts may sig- surement also offers interesting potential with the deployment nificantly alter rain reflectivity values and the subsequent radar data of wireless communication networks all over the world [56,49]. processing steps. An agreement exists now about the main radar er- A major advantage is related to the fact that such measure- ror sources related to both instrumental and sampling properties ments are made close to the ground. First studies indicate that [75,45,37]: calibration, attenuation due to wet radome, ground clut- effects of rainfall variability are limited if the link length and ter and beam blockages, attenuation due to gas and rain, vertical het- frequency are chosen correctly [6,50]. For such settings, the erogeneity of the hydrometeors (referred to as the vertical profile of main error sources are related to the wetting of antenna covers reflectivity –VPR- in the following), reflectivity-rain rate conversion and to the resolution of power measurements. (Z–R relationship), rainfall advection. Volume-scanning protocols and physically-based data processing are now generally imple- mented operationally to cope with such error sources. Although 3. Distributed hydrological modelling some noticeable progress has thus been obtained [39,68,69,26] some inherent limitations will continue to exist due for instance to Recent and ongoing research initiatives such as DMIP (Distrib- the difficulty in performing an absolute calibration, to the sampling uted Model Intercomparison Project; [66]) and PUB (Prediction in problems (radar resolution varies as a function of range, non-uni- ungauged basins; [34]) are focused on distributed hydrological form beam filling, non-observation of the low-level altitudes above modelling. For PUB the concept is to reduce the uncertainties in ground level beyond 60–80 km), to entangled errors (e.g., combina- the modelling process by improving our understanding and repre- tion of calibration, attenuation and VPR errors at C-band) and to the sentation in models. We briefly review hereafter some of the re- high intra-field variability of the Z–R relationship [72]. lated challenges. A major advent in the recent years is the implementation of One of the difficulties in hydrological modelling is that the spa- dual polarization and Doppler techniques in a pre-operational tial and temporal scales of hydrological processes span several or- mode for several weather radar networks [76,62,42]. In addition ders of magnitude: from a few m2 and minutes for soil infiltration to the reflectivity Z, the differential reflectivity ZDR, the cross corre- to thousands of km2 and several years for groundwater [13]. Fur- lation qhv and the differential phase shift /DP between the horizon- thermore, depending on the climate and the characteristics of the tal and vertical polarizations can be measured for each radar catchment (topography, land use, pedology, etc.), only one or sev- resolution volume. It is worth noting that the potential for dual- eral of these processes may be dominant. For instance, it is usually polarisation techniques to eliminate non-meteorological echoes recognized that runoff (both surface and sub-surface runoff) is [42] has actually been the main reason why several countries have dominant in the case of flash-floods, but that evapotranspiration decided to deploy a network of polarimetric radars. Classification must be accounted for in long-term simulations. According to the algorithms are used to distinguish several classes of liquid and fro- scale of interest, the dominant processes might also change. For zen hydrometeors [67] prior to the application of specific rainrate example while soil hydraulic characteristics are influential for run- estimators using various combinations of the radar measurables off generation through infiltration excess and ponding at the plot [62]. Polarimetry also offers some interesting possibilities such as scale, the presence of macropores and preferential flow might be self-calibration of reflectivity, attenuation correction [70,41] and the dominant factor when studying the runoff generated at the DSD retrieval [16,57]. Of lesser direct value for radar QPE, the hillslope scale. Finally, there are several thresholds in hydrology Doppler capability allows for a better description of the rain sys- (e.g., appearance of ponding, snow melting, saturated areas, flood- tem dynamics [15]. Refractivity measurements from the phase var- ing, etc.) which make the modelling more complex due to the asso- iation of ground targets [31] also offer potential for the ciated high level of non-linearities in hydrological responses [65]. characterization of low-level humidity fields. A second type of difficulty arises from the combined heteroge- There is an agreement about the critical importance of calibra- neities of the land surface and the sub-soil. The large spatial heter- tion and maintenance operations for quantitative applications. The ogeneity of the land surface is driven by topography, land use, parameters of the radar systems need to be monitored continu- geology and pedology and increasingly by human actions. To sim- ously and alarms have to be triggered when predefined thresholds plify the problem, hydrologists try to define so-called homoge- are exceeded. Data from the monitoring system are critical meta- neous zones, i.e. areas where the hydrological behaviour can be data and need to be archived along with the radar observations considered as homogeneous. This has led to the definition of and products. Polarization means more measured variables and Hydrological Representative Units (HRU) [33,10], Representative thus more information, but also increased technical complexity Elementary Areas (REA) [74], Representative Elementary Water- and workload in terms of system maintenance. sheds [61]. In terms of modelling, this range of concepts has led Despite the promises of polarimetry, there is evidence that the to various landscape discretizations. Models are mostly based on density of existing operational radar networks is insufficient for a regular meshes that are usually derived from Digital Terrain Mod- proper hydrological coverage at the national/continental scale if els (e.g. [1,11,60,18]. However, the continental surface heterogene- one considers the 100-km range as a maximum practical limit. ity is not well described by regular grids and other discretizations Two complementary solutions are currently being investigated: have been proposed such as triangular irregular networks [44], hillslopes [71] and hydrolandscapes [24]. The X-band frequency offers attractive design characteristics For process representations, two approaches can be distin- compared to the S-band and C-band frequencies (reduced trans- guished [64]. The first one is an upward approach where processes mitted power and antenna size; reduced sensitivity to ground are modelled using equations established at very small scales (such clutter) that are counterbalanced by a dramatic sensitivity to as the Richards equation for water transfer within the saturated/ rain attenuation. In the recent years, a breakthrough has been unsaturated zone, the St-Venant equation for water flow within a achieved in radar QPE at X-band through the use of polarimetry river channel, or the Boussinesq equation for water transfer within and range-profiling algorithms [70,2,40,51,53]. Several indus- an aquifer) and extended to larger scales. Effective parameters, rel- trial (e.g. (http://www.casa.umass.edu/) and research projects evant to the scale of discretization must therefore be specified if have been initiated to further develop this concept which has not calibrated [13]. This approach is difficult to verify due to limi- certainly a great future for radar QPE in rugged topography tations with current hydrological observation techniques (e.g., for and/or in urban areas. subsurface flow processes). Given the non-linearity in hydrological
Preface / Advances in Water Resources 32 (2009) 969–974 971 processes, it is also difficult to derive theoretical approaches consisting in gathering large data sets, performing extensive qual- describing how the model parameters might change across scales. ity checks and combining them to produce rainfall estimates, is a The second approach is a downward approach where process con- very demanding task and requires a community wide international ceptualization is derived from the available data, with a minimum effort. of parameters, without representing what happens at smaller A first issue that needs to be addressed concerns the data that scales. The simplest approach to this is data based modelling tech- are available to perform re-analyses. Concerning rain gauge data, niques; other examples of differing complexity of representation rain gauge networks date back to the 1950s. However, the diversity can be found in [46,29]. But the establishment of such models re- in data quality, type, consistency and accessibility is a serious is- quires that data are available at the modelling scale, which is not sue. The effort and cost required to develop and maintain rain always the case, and the extrapolation to ungauged catchments gauge networks is significant and there seems to be a trend of and/or potentially more extreme observational events that are reducing the density of rain gauge networks as the radar network not yet characterised within the data is difficult. is improved. Concerning radar data, there has been a strong evolu- In terms of modelling practice, a change in modelling paradigm tion of the radar networks during the previous two decades both in is certainly required as well as accounting for the uncertainties in terms of density and operating protocols. Moreover radar systems model prediction. Modellers were trying to answer the following collect huge amounts of numerical data, which raises the issue of question: ‘‘Which model is suited to my problem?”. The question efficient, safe and fast access archiving solutions. This issue will be- should move to ‘‘Which combination of processes is relevant to come even more acute as polarimetry becomes a standard for oper- this problem?” [48]. Adopting this paradigm has two conse- ational weather radar networks. Although radar networks date quences; firstly the spatial and temporal discretization of the mod- back to the 1980s, exploitable radar data will probably cover a el should be adjusted so as to meet the main objectives of the much shorter period due to unreliable numerical archiving. In or- modelling study and the data availability, and secondly the com- der to produce data sets that are consistent at the continental scale, plexity and spatial heterogeneity of model process representation the question of the homogeneity of different radar networks is should be adapted to the model spatial and temporal discretiza- important. In Europe, the OPERA project (http://www.knmi.nl/op- tion. Addressing these challenges is one way to reconcile the era), which aims at harmonizing radar data from 28 countries and downward and upward approaches of model conceptualisation at promoting data exchange, is an important initiative in this that provides pragmatic solutions to modelling problems [66]. respect. Some authors have described this process as a learning framework The second issue concerns the choice of methodologies to apply for hydrological modelling [28]. Progress in computer science, such when performing a rainfall re-analyses from radar and other as object-oriented modelling, and the appearance of modular mod- sources of rainfall data. elling platforms [3], which allow the user to couple various models in an efficient way, makes the exploration of different model rep- resentations more possible now and for the future. Depending on the archived data (raw volume data versus This new perspective of pragmatic model development to meet already processed QPE products), the possibility to apply phys- the needs of the application effectively in terms of spatial discret- ically-based processing algorithms may vary significantly. Prag- ization and process conceptualization will benefit from the avail- matic and standardised approaches should be implemented to ability of new observational techniques that describe landscape control the stability of the radar signal, to determine the radar heterogeneity and provide hydrological observations at various detection domain, to identify and remove residual artefacts, to scales. Weather radar rainfall fields will contribute to progress in quantify and correct for attenuation effects, and to characterize this direction. Understanding the variability of storm event rain- the vertical profile of reflectivity. Radar–radar merging tech- falls over catchment areas will improve the quantification of the niques should receive more attention especially for relatively uncertainties involved in the modelling process by better defining dense networks operating in rugged topography: an early- the input uncertainties to models, potentially moving away from merging of volume data may be preferable to merging the the necessarily simplified representation of these estimates in cur- QPE products of various radars. rent techniques [36]. Continuous increase in computing power As already mentioned, conventional radar technology does makes uncertainty assessments possible now even for the more not guarantee an accurate electronic calibration and the Z–R complex physically-based models [12]. This should be an impor- relationship is highly variable. Therefore recourse to other tant consideration in such studies, especially when using diverse sources of rainfall data is needed to optimize the radar data to assess model structures spatially [35]. parameters and/or to control the radar QPE quality. Rather than a simple ‘‘radar calibration”, such an operation should 4. Recommendations be seen as a multi-sensor merging requiring a detailed knowledge of the space-time structure of rainfall and of the Besides the necessary development of operational radar net- instrumental/sampling errors associated with the various sen- works for rainfall detection and nowcasting purposes, two main sors used [37,5,73]. The lack of absolute rainfall reference is recommendations can be formulated to foster the use of weather often invoked; rain gauge networks with adequate densities radar data in hydrological sciences (see also [37]). remain the only practical solution for obtaining such refer- ence values for past data. The issue of representativeness 4.1. Rainfall re-analyses for hydrological sciences and discrepancies in sampling scales is significant; time inte- gration is a possible way to limit this influence. Other types Huge amounts of radar data have been collected for the last 30 of rainfall data such as disdrometers, microwave links, and years in almost all types of climate and for many regions all over satellite data (in particular TRMM and GPM that offer suitable the world. This wealth of data has not yet been fully exploited. In- resolutions) could be progressively incorporated in such spired by what has been done for atmospheric data sets (e.g., NCAR merging procedures. or ECMWF meteorological re-analyses), efforts should be encour- aged for using archived radar and rain gauge data to produce A variety of applications can benefit from the possibility of long-term rainfall space-time data sets with relevant quantifica- accessing a standardized long-term rainfall re-analyses (in a simi- tion of the associated errors. However, rainfall re-analysis, mainly lar way to the extensive use of atmospheric re-analyses for many
972 Preface / Advances in Water Resources 32 (2009) 969–974 research or operational applications). For example, rainfall re-anal- uted hydrological models beyond their common calibration limits yses will be useful for research and engineering applications like [38,20,14]. The availability of accurate radar QPE is again a key ele- the analysis of extremes, the derivation of space-time ‘‘design rain- ment for successful post-flood surveys. fall”, the detection of climatic trends, the evaluation of meteorolog- In the next years, one challenge for distributed hydrological ical numerical models, the compilation of multiscale water models is thus to be able to integrate all these new sources of data budgets, the forcing of distributed hydrological models. Critical together with their error characteristics in a consistent way and to information that has to be provided in conjunction with the re- progress in the knowledge of water pathways and fluxes. A second analyses is the quantification of the uncertainties associated with challenge is to tackle the problem of process conceptualisation at precipitation estimates to enable ensemble and probabilistic various scales (change of scale problem). This must be based on approaches. the recognition that when moving to larger scales, the form of the equations should perhaps be modified [47]. McDonnell et al. [54] go one step further in this direction by promoting the adapta- 4.2. Hydrometeorologic observatories tion of methodologies borrowed from ecology, focusing on the hydrological functions which can be associated to patterns of A synergy between various disciplines including hydrology and heterogeneity. meteorology, but also neighbouring disciplines such as geochemis- In situ measurements and models will benefit from a mutual try, ecology, geography, applied mathematics is required to enrichment. One of the promising ways to reach this goal is by achieve progress in process understanding and modelling in extending the technique of sensitivity analysis and data assimila- hydrology. Better techniques to regionalise the most appropriate tion, used in meteorology and oceanography to hydrology. Recent model structures and to define in the landscape what drives the results [17] are very promising and show that these techniques dominant modes of hydrological behaviour are critically needed. can be useful in improving measurement networks by identifying Hydrometeorologic observatories (CUASHI initiative in the USA – the places and time where additional observations can be most http://www.cuashi.org; HYDRATE project in Europe – http:// informative. www.hydrate.tesaf.unipd.it/; [25]) are now proposed worldwide to provide the required datasets. International scientific experi- 5. Overview of the special issue ments like AMMA (http://amma-international.org/) and HyMeX (http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/hymex) offer additional opportunities This special issue of Advances in Water Resources contains for coupled studies on the water cycle including its oceanic, atmo- twelve articles, which represent only a partial sample of the scien- spheric and continental components. tific material presented during the International Symposium Operational and research radars, together with the other instru- Weather Radar and Hydrology (http://www.wrah-2008.com/). ments evoked in Section 2, have the potential to dramatically im- About radar QPE, Diss et al. [27] offer a convincing assessment prove the description of rainfall patterns. Dense raingauge of a dual-polarization Doppler X-band radar in mountainous ter- networks are required to further validate radar QPE and character- rain with reference to raingauge measurements and the estimates ize their error structure. In addition, hydrologic experimental de- of an operational S-band radar. With regard to merging techniques, sign should be based on nested instrumented catchments, to Velasco-Forero et al. [73] propose a non-parametric blending address process understanding and model evaluation at various methodology intended to be used in real-time operation for the ra- scales as well as understanding the uncertainties in our observa- dar-raingauge estimation while Cummings et al. [23] utilize micro- tional data: wave link measurements for the mean field bias adjustment of an operational radar. Detailed hillslope instrumentation is required to advance the Three papers address more fundamental aspects related to the understanding of factors controlling soil moisture redistribution rainfall spatial variability. With X-band polarimetric Doppler mea- and for upscaling from local to the hillslope scales. Besides con- surements, Moreau et al. [58] analyze the rainfall spatial correla- ventional instrumentation, hydrogeophysics offers now a vari- tion function in order to assess the representativeness error of ety of new instruments to characterize the soil profiles and rain gauges with respect to areal rainfall and to more precisely the water dynamics. characterize the radar instrumental error. In the same line, Man- Small- and medium-scale catchments (1–100 km2) instrumen- dakapa et al. [52] present a theoretical framework for estimating tation should include the distributed monitoring of soil mois- the spatial correlation of the radar rainfall error. Berne et al. [7] de- ture, evapotranspiration and the other terms of the water and velop a method based on indicator variograms to automatically energy budget. Distributed hydrometry could be achieved using determine the anisotropic rainfall spatial structure from radar new remote sensing techniques such as large-scale particle data. imagery velocimetry [22]. Very high resolution satellite images Two articles are about quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). and lidar also offer new opportunities for a better description of This important subject is not specifically addressed in the present surface water pathways. preface and the interested readers are referred to [55] for a recent For regional scale catchments (100–10,000 km2), the collection review. Herein, Fabry and Seed [32] analyze the accuracy of rainfall and organisation of all the existing operational data sets is nowcasts from the US 3D radar mosaic and consider weather- required. Improving the accuracy of flood discharge measure- dependent predictors to try improving the forecast and/or reducing ments using 1D/2D hydraulic modelling and image analysis is its uncertainty. Barillec and Cornford [4] introduce a new varia- necessary. Satellite data providing estimate of soil moisture tional Bayesian assimilation method for precipitation nowcasting should also be acquired and processed in order to provide a using a spatial rainfall model based on radar data. regional view of soil moisture variability. Four articles are about hydrologic modelling with radar rainfall input. Focus is given to extremes for which weather radar offers As a complement to detailed instrumentation, post-flood event unprecedented observations. Morin et al. [59] present a robust field campaigns have to be further developed to gather and analy- hydrological model utilizing radar data intended to be used for sis the large number of evidence left by extreme flood events even flash-flood warning in a semi-arid region. Bonnifait et al. [14] dis- on ungauged catchments. Such surveys appear to be an efficient cuss the hydrologic and hydraulic modelling exercise that was con- way of progressing the hydrology of extremes and testing distrib- ducted to put in coherence the various sources of data (including
Preface / Advances in Water Resources 32 (2009) 969–974 973 operational data and post-event field estimates) collected for an [21] Creutin JD, Borga M. Radar hydrology modifies the monitoring of flash flood hazard. Hydrol Proc 2003;17:1453–6. extreme event. Sangati et al. [63] utilize high resolution rainfall [22] Creutin JD, Muste M, Bradley AA, Kim SC, Kruger A. River gauging using PIV fields and a distributed hydrologic model to test the sensitivity of technique: proof of concept experiment on the Iowa river. J Hydrol flash-flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil 2003;277:182–94. properties over a range of scales. Finally, Cole and Moore [19] per- [23] Cummings RJ, Upton GJG, Holt AR, Kitchen M. Using microwave links to adjust the radar rainfall field. Adv Water Resour 2009;32:1003–10. [Corrected proof, form an ungauged modelling investigation using a distributed Available online 31 August 2008, ISSN: 0309-1708]. hydrologic model and radar rainfall inputs for instrumented nested [24] Dehotin J, Braud I. Which spatial discretization for distributed hydrological catchments. models? Proposition of a methodology and illustration for medium to large scale catchments. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2008;12:769–96. [25] Delrieu G, Ducrocq V, Gaume E, Nicol J, Payrastre O, Yates E, et al. The Acknowledgements catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard region, France: a first case study for the Cévennes–Vivarais mediterranean hydro- meteorological observatory. J Hydrometeorol 2005;6:34–52. 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