A VISION FOR THE FUTURE INTERNET WORKING PAPER
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A VISION FOR THE
FUTURE INTERNET
WORKING PAPER
September 2020
1
AUTHORS
Katja Bego,
contributions by Markus Droemann
Original illustrations by: Isabel Sousa
https://isabelsousa.com/
Report design by: Emma Charleston
https://www.emmacharleston.co.uk/
This reports reflects the views of its authors only. It forms part of NGI
Forward’s overarching recommendations for the Next Generation Inter-
net initiative and future European internet policy. It does not necessarily
reflect the views of the European Commission.
2
ABOUT NGI
NGI Forward is the strategy and policy arm of the Next
Generation Internet (NGI), a flagship initiative by the
European Commission, which seeks to build a more
democratic, resilient and inclusive future internet. The
project is tasked with setting out an ambitious vision
for what we want the future internet to look like, and
identifying the concrete building blocks - from new
technologies to policy interventions - that might help bring
us closer towards that vision.
NGI Forward is made up of an international consortium
of seven partners: Nesta in the United Kingdom, which
leads the project, DELab at the University of Warsaw in
Poland, Edgeryders in Estonia, the City of Amsterdam in
the Netherlands, Nesta Italia in Italy, Aarhus University
in Denmark and Resonance Design in Belgium. The NGI
Forward project commenced in January 2019 and will run
for three years. To learn more or get involved, visit
http://research.ngi.eu.
3
A VISION FOR 2030
The European Commission’s ambitious Next We focus our efforts on five key pillars:
Generation EU recovery plan1 aims to not just kickstart
1. Democracy: Power over the internet is
economic growth and boost employment, but also
concentrated in too few hands. Citizens should
use this moment as an opportunity to catalyse the
have more ownership over their own personal
digital and green twin transition. The internet and
data and identity, and a real voice in the
its supporting technologies will be instrumental
development of new innovation. Building a more
in making these efforts a success, but we cannot
democratic internet also means levelling the
harness its full power unless we solve the underlying,
playing field in the digital economy, allowing
systemic issues currently holding it back. This paper
more actors to meaningfully compete, and
sets out an ambitious vision and mission framework
initiatives that serve the public interest to thrive.
to create a more democratic, resilient, sustainable,
trustworthy and inclusive internet by 2030. 2. Resilience: A human-centric internet also needs
to be resilient in order to ensure the continued
There is no single silver bullet solution that can help
reliability and sustainability of its networks and
resolve all the challenges presented by connected
social infrastructures. Mounting cyberthreats
technologies and the digital economy. We instead
and governance breakdown, climate shocks and
need a wide variety of interventions to reach our
rising demand impact different layers of the
objectives, targeting issues across all layers of
system, and require renovation and more secure
the internet’s stack — from its underlying physical
processes to remain robust.
infrastructures to the ways in which information flows
through the system and impacts our societies. We 3. Sustainability: If we want the internet and related
propose unifying the ambitious objectives of the Next digital technologies to play a role in solving the
Generation Internet initiative into one single mission, climate emergency and further the objectives of
to sit alongside the ambitious missions previously the European Green Deal, we need to ensure we
defined by the European Commission.2 minimise their own environmental footprint and
advance the circular economy for digital devices.
Taking such a mission-based approach will empower
policymakers and the public sector to take a holistic 4. Trust: From reading an article on social media to
view, articulate a compelling European story, making an online payment — trust in and on the
and mobilise the right actors in Europe’s diverse internet is vital if we want to make most of its
technology ecosystem to bring about the changes we promise. Europe needs more trustworthy models
want to see. for online interactions, reliable information, data-
sharing and identity management, to both help
strengthen social cohesion and ease growing
distrust in the geopolitical arena.
5. Inclusion: The internet needs to be accessible to
all. This means removing social, economic and
infrastructural barriers to access, but also the
development of a flourishing multilingual internet,
where services are available and safe to use for
underrepresented communities.
Challenges: We have to address complicated
and interconnected challenges across all layers
of our power stack model.
1 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_1658
2 https://ec.europa.eu/info/horizon-europe-next-research-and-innovation-framework-programme/missions-horizon-europe_en
4
Democracy Resilience Sustainability Trust Inclusion
Physical Privatisation of Vulnerability of Environmental Geopolitical Lack of
infrastructure infrastructure. infrastructures to footprint tensions Affordable
and hardware cyberattacks and hardware broadband
Loss of the Supply chain
layer climate shocks access
Right to Tinker Lack of dependencies
and restrictive Arms race over recyclability and Urban / rural
Eavesdropping
ownership resources right to repair digital divide
and tapping of
models.
Weak Path communications Socio-economic
Market governance of dependency barriers to
concentration in cyberspace and lock in. access
supply chains
Standards, Internet Limited Lack of focus on Fragmentation High barriers
protocols governance governance of sustainability and emerging to entry for
and internet dominated by a (cyber)security objectives in splinternet. participating
governance small number of issues. standard setting in governance
Breakdown of
layer actors. process processes
Take-up governance
Increased of critical processes Lack of
complexity patches and representation
and opacity of improvements of diverse
governance voices
processes
Data & transport Concentration of Data breaches Environmental Data collection Biases in
layer power over data and single footprint of processes are algorithmic
points of failure storing and opaque, not decision making
Surveillance
processing data consent-based
capitalism and Weaponisation Right to Opt
and infringe on
surveillance of large data Data Out and
citizens’ privacy.
states lakes minimisation Representation
Technology Unequal access Democratisation Proliferation Lack of Lack of diversity
and software to talent leading to of energy- robustness in in tech industry
development development intensive smart development
Power balances Groups under-
layer of harmful devices processes
means tech for represented
solutions
good does not Energy use of Government in tech
come to fruition Blockchain and surveillance development
ML creep
Applications Walled gardens Fragmentation Growth of Identity problem Lack of
layer siloing off the in rule-setting more energy- and lack of accessibility
internet, and approaches intensive uses trust in online and linguistic
setting the rules due to walled of the internet, interactions diversity in
gardens such as video applications
User lock-in and Lack of
streaming and services
network effects Fragility adtech transparency
business models about workings Service
of apps shutdowns
Information Power of Fragility of the Information Disinformation Online
layer platform online media overload and fake news harassment and
gatekeepers ecosystem abuse
Inefficient Emergence of
and other
design and SEO deepfakes Multilingual
intermediaries
practices internet and
Online access to info
censorship
Societal impact Power of digital Fragility of the Incentivising Meaningful Growing digital
layer economy barely-holding- unsustainable consent and divide
over physical on economy consumerism encroachment
Inequalities
businesses on public space
Untethering Not making perpetuated by
Augmented from physical use of full Smart city lack of access
neutrality space opportunities accountability
5
A Mission and a Vision: We
define a specific mission
DEMOCRACY: SUSTAINABILITY:
for each of our five pillars, • We democratise the • We move to a fully circular
setting tangible goals to internet by giving citizens and carbon-neutral
move us closer towards our control over their data economy for digital
vision. and future trajectory of technology by 2030,
innovation, and create a strengthening the joint
single market for ethical objectives of Europe’s
data use and technology twin green and digital
worth 1 trillion Euros by transition.
2030.
• We move to a fully
• Every European gets circular economy for
access to their own digital devices by 2030,
secure digital identity and by improving production
personal data store (data processes, ensuring
wallet) by 2025. longevity and repairability
of individual devices and
• We level the playing field
expanding our e-waste
in the digital economy
recycling capacity.
by opening up access
to data through the • We reduce the energy
creation of commons- use of the data economy
driven decentralised data by raising awareness
spaces for personal data among the public about
as well as strengthening the impact of their
interoperability and data use, extending data
portability rules. minimisation practices
to include sustainability
• We democratise the
measures, and developing
technology innovation
less energy-intensive
process by supporting
technologies and data
open innovation
analysis methodologies.
and knowledge, and
harnessing the wisdom • Europe becomes a global
of the crowd through frontrunner in the market
collective intelligence. for green digital devices,
software and technologies,
• We rejuvenate democratic
the backbone of a market
processes across all
for trustworthy technology
layers of governance,
worth 1 trillion Euros by
from the local level all the
2030.
way up to the European
institutions, by proactively • Seizing on the twin digital
implementing digital and green transition,
deliberation tools, and we invest in digital
protect freedom of speech technologies that can
and the Right to Whisper meaningfully help address
around the world. the climate crisis, a central
tenet of the European
Green Deal.
6
RESILIENCE: TRUST: INCLUSION:
• We build internet • We establish a globally- • By 2030, all Europeans can
infrastructure and systems recognised “Made meaningfully access and
that can withstand in Europe” brand for participate in shaping the
environmental, economic trustworthy and privacy- internet.
and cyber shocks, and enhancing technology, and
• We ensure all European
strengthen our role as a play a leadership role in
have the opportunity to
global champion of good ensuring citizens around
get affordable, high-speed
governance and the open the world have access to
internet access by 2030,
internet. trustworthy technology,
and have the skills to safely
data and information
• We transition to a model and effectively use the
flows.
of open-source technology internet.
and open standards • We launch an auditing
• We broaden access of
first across all layers of body that scrutinises the
more marginalised groups
European governance, security, trustworthiness
across all layers of the
from the local to the and privacy-awareness
internet, with a particular
supranational. of hardware, software
emphasis on making the
and digital services, and
• We play an active role internet governance and
administers European
in strengthening global technology development
Commission-endorsed
governance of the internet, layers more inclusive and
trustmarks to those
by opening up internet diverse.
solutions that pass the
governance processes to a
test. • We build a multilingual
wider community, reviving
internet, where minority
the multi-stakeholder • We build a healthy
languages are equally
model and protecting ecosystem around
well-represented and all
global digital rights. trustworthy, high-quality
services accessible.
journalism and information
• We roll out an ambitious
flows, ensuring reputable • We reduce barriers to
infrastructure renewal plan
media outlets can find access, by improving the
as part of Europe’s Green
sustainable business accessibility of services for
New Deal plans, protecting
models without undue people with disabilities,
critical infrastructures and
levels of market and address the cultural
building in more flexibility
concentration. We do and socio-economic
to leave us agile to
this through the creation dynamics that mean
adapt to changing threat
of a dedicated News marginalised groups are
horizons.
Innovation fund. less likely to participate.
• We build up Europe’s
• We relocate and diversify
cybersecurity capacity
aspects of the internet
through an ambitious
technology supply
retraining programme,
chain, bringing more
building skills within
development of devices
organisations and among
and solutions back to
the general public, and
Europe.
strengthening the rules
for secure design and • We find new modes for
deployment. citizens to give meaningful
consent to being tracked
or subjected to data-
driven decision-making
tools and systems,
bringing reciprocity to our
relationship with smart city
solutions.
7
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive summary: A vision for 2030 4
1. Introduction 9
1.1 Europe’s role in shaping the post-COVID-19 internet 10
1.2 A cohesive European approach 11
1.3 Five pillars for the future 13
1.4 The structure of this paper 13
2. Where are we now? 15
2.1 Physical infrastructures and hardware layer 17
2.2 Standards, protocols and internet governance layer 22
2.3 Data and transport layer 26
2.4 Technology and software development layer 30
2.5 Applications layer 34
2.6 Information layer 38
2.7 Societal impact layer 42
3. Where do we want to go: a vision for 2030 47
3.1 A democratic internet 48
3.2 A resilient internet 51
3.3 A sustainable internet 54
3.4 A trustworthy internet 56
3.5 An inclusive internet 60
4. Creating a European Democratic Data Spaces framework 62
4.1 A self-sovereign online identity for all 64
4.2 From data lakes to data commons 65
4.3 A new wave of ethical innovation 67
5. How do we get here? 68
5.1 Why we need a NGI mission 69
5.2 Reconceptualising the Next Generation Internet as a mission 70
5.2.1 Democracy 71
5.2.2 Resilience 72
5.2.3 Sustainability 73
5.2.4 Trust 74
5.2.5 Inclusion 75
6. Conclusion 76
8
1.
INTRO-
DUCTION
9
1. INTRODUCTION
The internet has changed. While early internet is still a force for good. But now more than ever, we
pioneers dreamed of an open, free and decentralised must work hard and take decisive action to harness
internet, the story of the internet today is mostly a its full potential. The COVID-19 crisis has revealed the
story of loss of control. Just a handful of companies many inequities and vulnerabilities in the system, and
determine what we read, see and buy, where we risks cementing them even further, but it has also
work and where we live, who we vote for, who we shown us once again how powerful a tool the internet
love, and who we are. Many of us feel increasingly can be. It allowed us to connect, share knowledge and
uneasy about these developments. We live in a world come together when the physical world temporarily
where new technologies happen to us, rather than for prevented us from doing so. As Europe sets out on its
us; a world in which citizens have very little agency to path towards recovery, to rebuild communities and
change the rules. economies ravaged by the pandemic, we now have a
vital opportunity to make the internet a healthier part
As the internet and digital economy now permeate
of a more sustainable shared future.
more and more layers of our societies and economies,
it is no surprise that vested interests have increasingly This renewed sense of urgency to rebuild and right
used them as channels through which to spread their some of the pervasive wrongs in our societies also
own influence, and conversely also have used their gives us the momentum to address the underlying
influence to take charge of shaping the internet itself. dynamics that underpin so many of the internet’s
The internet has become one of the main theatres current problems. To do that, we need to become
of geopolitical conflict, with governments and better not just at diagnosing the issues, but coming
increasingly powerful private-sector actors embroiled up with remedies. We know what we do not want.
in an accelerating tech arms race, vying for control. But what kind of internet do we want to see instead?
At time of writing, the emergence of the long-feared This paper is an attempt to make our ambitions more
splinternet appears closer than ever before. concrete, by setting out a coherent vision for a more
democratic, resilient, sustainable, trustworthy and
This ongoing battle for domination has led to an
inclusive future internet by 2030, and by outlining
extreme centralisation of power across virtually all
a roadmap of tangible actions and interventions
layers of the internet, with a small number of players
that could help get us there. This vision serves as a
now calling the shots in shaping its underlying
call to arms to move away from our role as passive
systems, such as physical infrastructures, standard-
bystanders to proactively shape a better future; from
setting processes and data flows, and using this
defining principles to taking tangible action.
power to rewire our societies and economies. The
business models and governance systems enabling This working paper was developed by Nesta as part
this current incarnation of the internet have a natural of the Horizon-2020-funded NGI Forward project.
tendency to lead to ever greater accumulation and NGI Forward acts as the policy and strategy arm of
centralisation. This winner-takes-all dynamic makes the European Commission’s flagship Next Generation
it increasingly difficult for new actors to meaningfully Internet (NGI) initiative3, which sets out to build
compete, especially those who want to address some a more human-centric internet by the end of the
of the internet’s structural inequalities and power decade. While the paper does not necessarily reflect
imbalances. the opinions of the Commission, it forms part of our
project’s overarching recommendations for the NGI
This tendency towards accumulation and ever
and future European internet policy.
greater scale has repercussions for the resilience
and environmental sustainability of the systems
and services we increasingly rely on, excludes
1.1 EUROPE’S ROLE IN SHAPING THE
large swathes of the population from meaningfully
POST-COVID-19 INTERNET
contributing to — or benefiting from — innovation, and Europe has often been presented as one of the lone
exacerbates existing social, economic and political powerful voices still championing digital rights and
divides. the open internet in an increasingly fragmented
digital sphere, a third way between Silicon Valley and
Despite the growing clamour of voices who wish we
Beijing. While this has proven a helpful heuristic to
could just pull the plug, we believe that the internet
articulate an alternative and strike the right balance
3 https://www.ngi.eu/
10between unbridled private sector-led innovation opportunity for Europe to look beyond the value of
and government oversight, the reality is a lot more individual technologies and explore how the internet,
complex. Much like the world around us, the internet as a whole, could be reconfigured to generate greater
is becoming increasingly chaotic and multipolar, with economic and societal value and facilitate long-term
a multitude of actors, private and public, trying to growth within planetary bounds.
transpose their own visions for the future onto it.4
1.2 A COHESIVE EUROPEAN APPROACH
Amidst these duelling narratives and objectives, the
European Union needs to more proactively chart its The European Union’s strengths in the digital arena
own path. We must become better at articulating are well known, from our regulatory power — the
what we want, rather than diagnosing (and regulating) sheer size of the Single Market and strict standards
what we do not want to see. As global tensions rise, mean the bloc gets to set global rules, harnessing
globalisation stagnates, and existing economic and the so-called Brussels effect7 — to our reputation as a
political paradigms are challenged as a result of the trustworthy, value-led actor, to the dynamism of our
impacts of the pandemic and the longer-term threats bottom-up innovation ecosystem.
of climate change and inequality, Europe finds itself
The European Union’s role as the global technology
at an important crossroads. It is perhaps no wonder
watchdog and champion of openness in an
that this is to be the first ‘geopolitical’ Commission,
increasingly fragmented system, while powerful,
as President Ursula von der Leyen has described it.5
ultimately risks being a reactive one. Regulatory
Indeed, this is not a time to stand idly by.
interventions such as the GDPR are vital, but are there
Driven by fears of falling behind, a growing number to right existing wrongs in the system. In their current
of voices in Europe are promoting rash approaches incarnation, they are predominantly a lever to get
to bolster the bloc’s own industrial strategy: rapidly outside actors to adapt to the rules of the European
creating national champions (“picking winners”) Single Market, rather than to successfully incentivise
and diverting large amounts of funding to support innovation of our own.
the most hyped technologies, such as artificial
But internet sovereignty, both on the individual
intelligence, with ethics an afterthought. While it is
and continental level, can only be achieved through
indeed important that Europe boldly invests in taking
taking charge of the future trajectory of technological
the lead in shaping newly emerging industries, this
development and building our own alternatives. Our
rush to compete should not come at the expense
rule-setting power, from the European Commission
of championing European values, one of our unique
down to the city-level, is not being optimally used
strengths. Conversely, our value-led approach should
to support the creation of a market for solutions
also not lead to inaction, where the development
that could help correct some of the excesses and
of ethics frameworks and principles can sometimes
fundamental inequalities currently present in the
get in the way of taking tangible steps forward
digital economy.
and building alternatives. We instead advocate for
a long-term approach geared towards setting the Building the systems for public-interest
right conditions for new public-interest innovation innovation to thrive
to thrive; an approach that aims to embed the values
Many of our existing efforts have focused on either
we hold dear into our infrastructure and the next
using regulation to push technology giants in a
generation of technologies that will form the future
direction we consider more favourable, or to try
backbone of the internet.
to build — so far fruitlessly — similarly centralised
As the European Commission’s launches its ambitious alternatives to these large incumbents. But our
Next Generation Europe programme, aimed at ambition should not be to create our own European
ensuring the post-pandemic recovery is both Google. Instead, we need to focus on setting the
digitally-focused and sustainable, while also pursuing conditions that prevent the next Google.
greater sovereignty in the technology space (“open
In this paper, we set out a new model for an EU-
strategic autonomy”)6, we are offered a critical
4 Four Internets by Kieron O'Hara, Wendy Hall - Communications of the ACM, March 2020, Vol. 63 No. 3, Pages 28-30 https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2020/3/243022-four-internets/
fulltext
5 https://www.politico.eu/article/meet-ursula-von-der-leyen-geopolitical-commission/
6 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_940
7 Bradford, Anu, The Brussels Effect (2012). Northwestern University Law Review, Vol. 107, No. 1, 2012, Columbia Law and Economics Working Paper No. 533, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn. 11
com/abstract=2770634funded and maintained standards-based framework developments happen from the bottom-up. From
(A European Democratic Data Space Framework) cities taking back control, to grassroots initiatives
for data-sharing and online identity, which will building ethical tools. We need to bring coherence
help democratise access to data while preserving to these many disparate activities, champion
citizens’ privacy, enabling smaller companies to gain collaboration and put communities and the creation
a foothold in the market and operate sustainable, of an inclusive, open innovation ecosystem at the
ethical business models. Building such a new, heart of our approach.
decentralised but robust infrastructure is but one
Bringing this type of cohesion is no lofty task.
example of how Europe could break through the
Because while Europe’s digital innovation ecosystem
vicious circle towards ever more power accumulation
is stronger than it is sometimes presented, it is
by allowing all of us to participate on our own terms.
also incredibly fragmented. It remains difficult
Government as a market-creator for businesses to find a market beyond their own
national borders as they are forced to adapt to
Public procurement — the process of public
differing regulatory and cultural contexts, and a lack
authorities, such as national ministries, municipal
of coordination between the various actors in the
governments or indeed the European Commission
ecosystem means we often end up reinventing the
itself purchasing goods or services from companies
wheel. This is not only wasteful, but also means that
— makes up about 14 per cent of European GDP.8
it is hard for any one solution to truly gain traction.
From smart transport systems to digital education
Through knowledge sharing, more coordination
solutions or online ticket payment systems: spending
and shared action (what if we could harmonise
on technological innovation and digital services
procurement rules to make it easier for networks
makes up a significant share of this total. Government
of cities and towns to purchase a new, ethical
spending and investment of this kind means that
solution together?), we can amplify the impact of our
the public sector is a crucial player in the market for
proposed interventions.
innovation — we must get better at using this power
to our advantage. Institutional innovation and new governance
models
By combining proactive procurement with forward-
facing, bold regulation, governments can set The unprecedented scale and complexity of the
standards for the technology and innovation they digital economy has meant not all of our existing
want to see. Think for example of conditions for regulatory and competition frameworks are still
interoperability and data portability, fairness or fit-for-purpose to respond to the challenges it has
privacy protection. Steering the development of brought to the fore. We need to move to anticipatory
new solutions in this way also helps governments regulatory models9, where we remain more agile
themselves to become a market for responsible and responsive to the rapidly-changing nature and
alternatives which would otherwise find it difficult to context around emerging technologies, and need to
find a sustainable path to profitability. experiment with new forms of government oversight
and collaboration with our stakeholder community.
Empowering policymakers from the local level
up In this paper, we propose the establishment of
a number of fully independent but government-
Europe’s ambitious new digital agenda must not
funded governance bodies, tasked with, for example,
solely be a top-down exercise driven forward by
issuing trustmarks, auditing technology solutions and
the European Commission alone. Instead, we need
maintaining new trust and identity infrastructures.
to involve Europe’s rich and diverse ecosystem of
We believe these kinds of models could bring a
actors shaping and reflecting on the future of the
new dynamism and robustness to an otherwise
internet — from large industry players to civil society;
increasingly fraught and fragmenting internet
academia to startups. We do that by setting out
governance arena.
an ambitious mission, focused on mobilising key
stakeholders all over the continent. Policy actions From the local and city-level up to the institutions of
need to be spearheaded by actors across all levels of the European Union, governments have more power
governance: from experimentation within cities and than we often think to shape the future trajectory
local communities, to bold, shared regulatory action of technology and the internet. In this paper, we set
in Brussels. out several ways in which policymakers can become
market-creators rather than reactive regulators by
In Europe, many of the most interesting
8 https://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/public-procurement/innovative_en
9 https://www.nesta.org.uk/project/anticipatory-regulation/
12setting standards and shaping the parameters in Resilience:
which new technology is deployed.
A human-centric internet also needs to be
resilient in order to ensure the continued reliability
1.3 FIVE PILLARS FOR THE FUTURE and sustainability of its networks and social
Europe prides itself in its values-led approach when infrastructures. Mounting cyberthreats and
it comes to governing and shaping the internet: governance breakdown, climate shocks and rising
we champion digital rights, strive for inclusion and demand impact different layers of the system, and
accessibility, and promote technology that can require renovation and more secure processes to
help solve real societal problems.10 But we must remain robust.
also recognise that the values and ideals we hold
Sustainability:
dear can at times be in tension with each other. We
champion online freedom, but not at the expense of If we want the internet and related digital
users’ privacy and safety. We want to expand access technologies to play a role in solving the climate
to the internet and reduce the digital divide, but emergency and further the objectives of the
are also cognizant about the environmental strain European Green Deal, we need to ensure we minimise
this increased connectivity would bring. These are their own environmental footprint and advance the
difficult choices, and we must strike the right balance circular economy for digital devices.
between these trade-offs, and take a consistent,
Trust:
coherent approach to articulate what we prioritise
and value most. From reading an article on social media to making an
online payment — trust in and on the internet is vital if
Many of the most important issues we face today
we want to make most of its promise. Europe needs
in our societies — climate change, inequality,
more trustworthy models for online interactions,
political polarisation, threats to the resilience of
reliable information, data-sharing and identity
our democracies, geopolitical tensions11 — closely
management, to both help strengthen social cohesion
map onto the key problems we grapple with on
and ease growing distrust in the geopolitical arena.
the internet, as we found confirmed through NGI
Forward’s own data-driven analysis.12 As we grapple Inclusion:
with addressing these vital societal challenges
The internet needs to be accessible to all. This means
on- and offline, we thus let the evidence inform us
removing social, economic and infrastructural barriers
about which key areas to focus on. Synthesising this
to access, but also the development of a flourishing
complexity led to the selection of five key principles
multilingual internet, where services are available and
that we believe a future internet must embody and
safe to use for underrepresented communities.
embrace: democracy, resilience, sustainability, trust
and inclusion. These five values, or pillars, will form
a leitmotif throughout this paper, as we surface the
1.4 THE STRUCTURE OF THIS PAPER
key challenges ahead of us, and articulate a concrete The purpose of this paper is to set out an ambitious
vision and mission for each. vision for the European Commission towards building
a more democratic, resilient, sustainable, trustworthy
Throughout this paper, we focus on the following five
and inclusive internet by 2030, a vision in which
pillars:
Europe charts its own future and strengthens the
Democracy: global open internet. Realising this vision requires
a radical rewiring of the internet’s underlying
Power over the internet is concentrated in too few
systems, business models and infrastructures. To
hands. Citizens should have more ownership over
target these efforts well, we need to understand
their own personal data and identity, and a real voice
the full complexity of the challenges we face on
in the development of new innovation. Building a
the internet today. What’s more, we need to make
more democratic internet also means levelling the
this vision tangible and empower policymakers,
playing field in the digital economy, allowing more
by setting out the concrete building blocks — from
actors to meaningfully compete, and initiatives that
policy interventions to technological and institutional
serve the public interest to thrive.
innovation — that can help get us there.
10 https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/eu-in-brief_en
11 https://carnegieeurope.eu/2019/05/07/what-are-europe-s-top-three-challenges-not-brexit-not-migration-not-populism-pub-79070
12 https://ngi.delabapps.eu/; https://research.ngi.eu/data-lab/overview/ These two websites show data visualisations created by NGI Forward Partner DElab, detailed reports and papers
available on request.
13The remaining chapters of this paper are thus divided
in three parts:
1. Where are we now:
In this section, we take a holistic view of the
challenges we face today. To help us make sense
of a space as interconnected, rapidly-evolving and
complex as the internet, we introduce the power
stack model, which reconceptualises the traditional
technology stack to focus on the key actors and
issues defining each layer of the system — from the
physical infrastructure underpinning the internet up
to its impact on our societies. We discuss the complex
web of problems we need to address one layer at a
time.
2. Where do we want to go:
In this section, we set out our vision for 2030 for
each of our five key pillars: democracy, resilience,
sustainability, trust and inclusion, focusing on
tangible, realistic action that could be taken by
Europe’s innovation ecosystem.
3. How do we get there:
In this final part, we elaborate on some of the specific
interventions, policy instruments and technological
solutions we need to move us closer towards our
vision. We do this by setting out a Mission for
building a more human-centric internet, following
the mission-based innovation model championed
by the European Commission, to ensure we mobilise
and optimally harness the full strength of Europe’s
internet ecosystem and innovative potential.
142.
WHERE ARE
WE NOW
152. WHERE ARE WE NOW?
The fragmentation and eventual To help us better understand the complicated issues
that our vision seeks to address, we therefore propose
possible splintering of the global reimagining the traditional stack as a layered system
internet, monopoly power of of both social and technological infrastructures.
In this model, these layers are not defined by their
a kind not seen before, the importance to making the internet work from a
growing peril of the digital divide, technical point of view, but by the powerful forces
driving them. As we seek to build an internet that is
lack of resilience of underlying more democratic, resilient, sustainable, trustworthy,
infrastructures, unaffordable and inclusive, we need to ensure we address
these questions of power for each of these layers
cities, unaccountable algorithmic individually, and understand how certain dynamics
decision-making, deliberate and challenges flow through them and reinforce each
other.
misinformation campaigns
and cyber attacks, emerging
surveillance states…
07 Societal impact layer
The problems we face on the internet are
overwhelmingly diverse, making it hard to determine
where interventions are needed. 06 Information layer
To set out a tangible vision for the future requires
us to understand where we are now, and what
levers of change we have available to us. What are
the key hurdles we need to surmount on the road
05 Applications layer
to achieving our objectives? In this section, we
provide an overarching structure to consider these Technology and software
challenges, and identify where there are important
commonalities and shared root causes we should
04 development layer
seek to address first.
Introducing the stack model of power:
03 Data and transport layer
The multilayered, intertwined nature of the global
internet means we need a clear picture of how the
various slices and layers of the system interact, and Protocols, standards and
understand who the key actors driving development 02 governance layer
are.
Many traditional models for visualising the Physical infrastructures
internet, such as the well-known Internet Protocol 01 and hardware layer
Stack13, looks at slices of the system solely from a
technological point of view: from the physical layer
and routing protocols, up to the various operating
Figure: The layers of the power stack model for the
systems making the internet actually function. While
internet
this approach to visualising the various elements
of the system is useful, we need to also look at the
social, economic and political aspects shaping the
system if we want to take a truly holistic approach to
remaking the internet.
13 https://www.w3.org/People/Frystyk/thesis/TcpIp.html
16We will now go through each of the layers of the underlying complexities fuelling them, and think
power stack model one by one, highlighting key about ways we can break this vicious circle towards
challenges that stand in the way of achieving our ever-greater centralisation.
mission. It is important to note the recurring themes
we see emerge again and again throughout this 2.1 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURES AND
analysis: the self-reinforcing nature of extreme HARDWARE LAYER
centralisation of power and resources, lack of
We often think of the internet as immaterial;
transparent and effective governance processes,
technology that just exists on our phones or in the
and challenges that come with increased scale and
cloud. But the internet’s underpinning physical
demand.
infrastructures and hardware are very much real,
The actors that are dominant in one layer, especially bound by geographical jurisdictions and finite
those in the applications and data layers, are physical resources. With the climate emergency
becoming increasingly powerful in other slices of looming over us and geopolitical tensions rising
the system too. Large technology companies are globally, questions about the system’s physical
beginning to deploy their own proprietary cables and resilience are now more pertinent than ever.
integrated hardware solutions, flexing their muscles in
Democracy:
the internet governance sphere, and spreading their
reach outside the confines of the internet. With their A democratic internet is an internet that offers a level
influence growing both horizontally within layers and playing field, where all of us can compete in a fair
vertically across layers, the large incumbents have manner, and consumers have agency to shape their
proven themselves particularly adept at solidifying own interactions with the technologies they rely on.
their own positions — effectively pulling up the Unfortunately, even the physical infrastructures of the
drawbridge to prevent smaller players from following internet have developed in ways that centralise power
in their footsteps and challenging their dominance. and limit the freedom of end users to determine their
As we think about solutions to combat some of these digital lives and meaningfully participate or compete
dynamics, we need to understand the common online.
Image credit: Ricardo Gomez Angel via Unsplash
17Users have lost agency when it comes to owning their proprietary systems, and also poses a challenge to
devices. The early ethos of the internet community net neutrality, which posits that all internet traffic,
was one of tinkering,14 of building your own computer regardless of its source of origin, should be treated
or server. New designs and rigid terms and conditions equally.
have made that difficult, now often preventing us
Market concentration has also left us with a less
from doing something even as simple as opening
diversified supply of both consumer and non-
up our laptop to replace its battery. New ownership
consumer hardware. While globally we see more
models have similarly changed our relationship with
competition as more and more low-cost Chinese
our hardware. Devices are increasingly vessels for
device producers gain traction particularly in the
software and services we rent rather than items
Global South, in Europe, the picture looks very
we truly own. Once the software updates stop,
different. Just three companies, Apple, Samsung and
smartphones and other tech rapidly decrease in utility
Huawei, cumulatively control nearly eighty per cent
and soon become unusable altogether even though
of the smartphone market.19 In the race to deploy
the hardware itself is still in fine order.
5G, only three key producers, Huawei, Ericsson and
A particularly notorious example of this trend is Nokia, lead the charge,20 together able to set the
the case of American agro-tech giant John Deere, global standards for communications technology and
which prevents farmers from repairing their own solidify their own positions. This centralisation reflects
tractors, as this would mean tampering with the how difficult it can be for new competitors to enter
proprietary software in the machine , which the the market, particularly those hoping to compete on
company contractually still owns.15 Cases such as this sustainable and ethical business models rather than
have become the subject of ongoing, complicated cost.
lawsuits about the nature of ownership, engendering
The European Commission already plays an important
a global movement in support of the ‘Right to Repair’.
role in challenging some of these dynamics, but can
In response, the European Commission recently
do more, for example as part of upcoming Right to
announced that it would press forward with a Right
Repair legislation, and through proactively opening up
to Repair for digital devices — an important first step
the market for smaller device producers.
if we want to return control over physical hardware
back to users.16 Resilience:
As is the case across virtually all layers of our stack As we become more reliant on the internet, with
model, the physical backbone of the internet is more and more of our key infrastructures now
subject to a decreasing number of actors that are connected, the associated risk that comes with
dominating and rewriting the rules of the market. a challenge to these systems increases. Cyber-
A notable trend in recent years sees tech giants, security experts warn about the lacklustre defence of
particularly those that rely on fast broadband for everything from air traffic control towers21 and voting
the delivery of products and services, deploying machines22 to nuclear plants.23 The internet itself is
their own undersea cables and other such systems.17 also a target24. As countries around the world are
Proprietary infrastructure ensures more constant and building up their cyber arsenals, debilitating attacks,
reliable access and helps these companies create by both state or non-state actors, will increase in
their own private networks, which increasingly bypass frequency and intensity.25 A global race to control
the internet altogether. By some estimates, private access to resources needed to build devices adds to
networks now use up to 60 per cent of the total the geopolitical tension surrounding the internet’s
capacity offered by trans-Atlantic cables, surpassing physical systems. Risks to the system do not always
internet traffic routed through traditional means.18 have to be the product of malicious intent: more
This provides a large advantage to the well-funded frequent extreme weather events and climate-
incumbents who can afford these more reliable change-induced shocks also require us to urgently
14 https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2016/01/why-owning-your-stuff-means-owning-your-digital-freedom
15 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-05/farmers-fight-john-deere-over-who-gets-to-fix-an-800-000-tractor
16 https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/New-Circular-Economy-Action-plan-shows-the-way-to-a-climate-neutral-competitive-economy_en
17 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/10/09/tech-companies-are-laying-their-own-undersea-cables
18 https://www.wired.com/2016/06/google-turns-giant-internet-cable/
19 https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/europe
20 https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-telecoms-5g-orders-factbox/factbox-deals-by-major-suppliers-in-the-race-for-5g-idUKKBN23O2G4
21 https://www.govinfosecurity.com/air-traffic-control-system-vulnerable-a-1449
22 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-vulnerabilities-of-our-voting-machines/
23 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/11/08/how-well-is-the-nuclear-industry-protected-from-cyber-threats/
24 https://www.agcs.allianz.com/news-and-insights/expert-risk-articles/cyber-attacks-on-critical-infrastructure.html
25 https://www.brookings.edu/research/cybersecurity-digital-trade-and-data-flows-re-thinking-role-for-international-trade-rules/
18reconsider the robustness of our infrastructures.26 remain vulnerable to data breaches, espionage or
DDoS attacks. According to some estimates, the cost
When it comes to cyber warfare, we are still in the
of worldwide data breaches alone could exceed $5
early days, but that should not lull us into a false sense
trillion by 2024.31
of security. The lack of visibility over the respective
capabilities of other actors makes it hard to predict Geopolitically-driven resilience risks also come into
how a larger attack might play out. According to play further upstream: the global technology arms
some experts, a well-placed cyberstrike on critical race has fuelled a scramble for resources such as
systems could potentially do as much damage as rare earth minerals and lithium, all vital ingredients
conventional military campaigns, at a fraction of the in the production of internet-enabled devices, from
cost.27 The 2018 NotPetya attack gave us a taste of smartphones to connected cars, as well as many
what this future might look like. NotPetya, thought technologies vital to the green revolution. Critical
to be the most impactful cyber attack we have seen minerals like cobalt are often mined in politically
so far, shut down critical systems across the world, volatile countries such as the Democratic Republic of
crippling industries like health, banking and logistics the Congo,32 further inciting local conflict and causing
in dozens of countries, amounting to a conservative risky dependencies in a vital supply chain. Today, the
estimate of over a total of 10 billion in damages.28 DRC accounts for roughly 60 per cent33 of the world's
cobalt output, but over 99 per cent of it is exported to
Weaponisation of connectivity to attack critical
China.34
systems is a worryingly effective tool in the new
hybrid warfare toolbox, but we also see growing This worrisome dependency affects a range of
concerns about the internet’s own systems falling elements. China now controls 97 per cent of the
victim. Increased submarine activity around hard- global supplies of some materials, such as tungsten
to-reach undersea cables have left many countries and molybdenum35, (important in electrodes and
worried about the impact of the deliberate steel production respectively) and has already
destruction of such key infrastructures,29 which could demonstrated its willingness to weaponise this
hamper cross-border communication systems for advantage. In 2010, for example, Beijing informally
prolonged periods of time. restricted access to rare earths to Japanese
businesses over a territorial dispute, temporarily
The worrying lack of governance and international
paralysing elements of their industry.36 While this
agreement about what constitutes acceptable state
episode incentivised countries to diversify their
behaviour in cyberspace further complicates the
supply chains and increase production elsewhere,
situation, as do the difficulties around attribution:
we see signs of similar bottlenecks reemerging once
many, if not most, malicious actors have been allowed
again — with both the private sector and governments
to get away without consequences, increasing the risk
looking to secure access.37 Our continued over-
of further escalation. The European Union, multilateral
reliance on insecure supplies opens up important
organisations and leading countries in the cyber arena
questions about sovereignty and autonomy: could
urgently need to move towards deescalation and
we diversify supply chains, or improve recovery of
establish a clearer set of rules.
critical materials from discarded devices? Reframing
But cyber-resilience is not just the purview of states the debate in this light, achieving a more circular
and multilateral organisations. It also requires economy becomes not just an environmental but also
action by businesses and individual users to a geopolitical objective.
ensure they protect systems where they can, and
Indeed, sustainability and resilience are closely linked.
not inadvertently allow devices to lend a hand in
The adoption of environmentally friendlier practices
facilitating botnet and other types of cyber-attacks.30
will not only serve to reduce supply chain risks, they
A lack of awareness and public debate has left us ill-
will become increasingly vital if we want to protect
prepared, and many businesses in critical industries
our internet infrastructure overall. As the impacts of
26 Durairajan, Ramakrishnan & Barford, Carol & Barford, Paul. (2018). Lights Out: Climate Change Risk to Internet Infrastructure. 9-15. http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~pb/anrw18_final.pdf
27 Finkelstein, Claire Oakes and Govern, Kevin H., "Introduction: Cyber and the Changing Face of War" (2015). Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law. https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/faculty_
scholarship/1566
28 “Sandworm: a new era of cyberwar and the hunt for the Kremlin’s most dangerous hackers”, Andy Greenberg, New York, Doubleday, 2019
29 https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/the-challenge-of-defending-subsea-cables
30 https://www.csoonline.com/article/3258748/the-mirai-botnet-explained-how-teen-scammers-and-cctv-cameras-almost-brought-down-the-internet.html
31 https://www.juniperresearch.com/press/press-releases/business-losses-cybercrime-data-breaches
32 https://www.ft.com/content/c6909812-9ce4-11e9-9c06-a4640c9feebb
33 https://www.statista.com/statistics/339834/mine-production-of-cobalt-in-dr-congo/
34 https://oec.world/en/profile/country/cod
35 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-ends-rare-earth-minerals-export-quotas-1420441285
36 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/business/global/23rare.html
37 https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/lithium-cobalt-may-be-next-in-strategic-metals-struggle-between-us-china-52545818
19the climate crisis begin to manifest themselves more is difficult. While there are existing efforts to clean up
prominently, extreme weather events and climate- supply chains, there are few incentives for producers
change-induced shocks will become more frequent, to fundamentally change their manufacturing
threatening to do great damage to fragile internet pipelines as long as consumer awareness, industry
systems.38 We must begin to more actively plan for standards and regulatory pressure remain limited.
such eventualities. Protecting internet infrastructures
The high rate of device replacement is in part fuelled
should thus be a key objective of the Next Generation
by deliberate design choices on the side of the
recovery plan and the European Green Deal.
producer. Smartphones, laptops and other pieces of
The European Union is well-placed to play a global hardware are notoriously hard to repair. Company
leadership role in strengthening the governance policies sometimes even actively discourage repair,
of cyberspace, as an effective “third way” buffer since tinkering with devices is often considered a
between the dominant American and Chinese breach of warranty. Replacement is usually cheaper
paradigms, and should aim to spearhead the push than repair. Inflexible, non-modular design means
for cyber arms control and further explore non- that users who want the latest camera in their
proliferation treaties. To do this credibly, European smartphone have to replace the complete device,
countries have to work together to improve the rather than just upgrade a specific part. While there is
resilience, security and sovereignty of our own key a growing legislative push both inside and outside of
infrastructures. Europe to strengthen Right to Repair principles, these
initiatives are being met by strong pushback from the
Sustainability:
large actors in this space.
While we often tout digital transformation as one
Pointing to even more nefarious business practices
of the key solutions to addressing the climate
are accusations of manufactured obsolescence,
emergency, we must also recognise that the internet
the idea that devices are designed to break or slow
itself is a growing source of pollution and emissions.
down as they get older and newer product lines are
Across the value chain, from the production
released. While hard to prove, we see rising calls
processes, to the storing of data in the cloud and the
for more forceful regulatory action to curb these
energy required to power them, the average internet
practices where they exist.42 The smartification of
device’s carbon footprint is substantial, especially
other appliances and technologies will likely lead to
if we consider the short lifespan of many of these
another source of premature device disposal: a smart
products.
fridge, for example, might be expected to last at least
By far the largest share of this footprint is generated ten years, but software support keeping the fridge
in the mining and manufacturing process. Across the functioning well, might end much sooner, effectively
lifecycle of an average smartphone, for example, from bricking the fridge years before it was otherwise due
the input materials to how we use it and then finally to be replaced.
dispose of it again, production processes account
Extending the lifetime of a device will help ease
for a staggering 95 per cent of the total greenhouse
the burden of physical systems and hardware on
emissions produced.39 The alarming rate at which we
the planet, but challenges recycling our connected
replace our laptops and smartphones, and the parallel
technologies when they eventually reach the end
explosion in cheap new smart devices compound this
of their lifecycle would still remain. Recycling of
issue, with some estimates suggesting we will reach
devices remains almost prohibitively expensive, with
25 billion connected ‘things’ by 2021.40
particularly the most valuable and hard-to-mine
Mapping out the footprint of a device across the resources such as rare earths and lithium, often
full supply chain is difficult because of the extreme present in minuscule amounts, hard to extract. Less
complexity of the production process. Over 200 than one per cent of rare earths are recovered from
suppliers are involved in the production of a single devices globally.43 E-waste is the fastest growing
iPhone.41 While there are many fairly straightforward source of new waste, with only 15 to 20 per cent of
interventions that could make these processes more devices being recycled effectively.44 Urban mining
sustainable, identifying and targeting specific actors could be a valuable industry, since the density of gold,
38 Durairajan, Ramakrishnan & Barford, Carol & Barford, Paul. (2018). Lights Out: Climate Change Risk to Internet Infrastructure. 9-15. http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~pb/anrw18_final.pdf
39 Belkhir, Lotfi & Elmeligi, Ahmed. (2018). Assessing ICT global emissions footprint: Trends to 2040 & recommendations. Journal of Cleaner Production. https://www.sciencedirect.com/
science/article/abs/pii/S095965261733233X?via%3Dihub
40 https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2018-11-07-gartner-identifies-top-10-strategic-iot-technologies-and-trends
41 https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/29/technology/iphone-china-apple-stores.html
42 https://www.stopobsolescence.org/
43 http://ec.europa.eu/DocsRoom/documents/10882/attachments/1/translations
44 https://repair.eu/
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