A SIX-MONTH ROAD MAP FOR ENSURING MACROECONOMIC & FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY
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A SIX-MONTH
ROAD MAP
FOR
ENSURING MACROECONOMIC &
FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY
A six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
01 October 2021
SRI LANKA,
once graciously referred to as the
“Wonder of Asia”
and
“the Next Miracle of Asia”,
has been severely challenged
in the past few years…
2 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021
There is fear about the present economic challenges…
Sluggish growth and Severe COVID-19
struggling businesses lockdown impact Shortage of foreign exchange and fears about a
sharp depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee
Possible increase in
non-performing loans
Concerns about debt sustainability, particularly
Increase in Central Bank’s Treasury bill
with the large outstanding values of ISBs
holdings
Low levels of official foreign exchange Weakened revenues
reserves
Increase in unauthorised remittance flows Unfavourable Concerned
sovereign ratings consumers
Stockpiling of imported goods by importers
SMEs facing serious challenges
Hostile international and local Stockpiling of Forex by
media reports exporters Deterioration of confidence
3 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021
Regular doomsday reports by the opposition and other interest groups
have also contributed to the negative sentiment…
4 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021
At the same time, we have to admit that the economy has shown little
positive progress over the past few years…
2005 2014 2019 2020
GDP at Current Prices (USD mn) 24,406 79,359 83,976 80,707
GDP Per Capita at Current Market Prices (USD) 1,242 3,819 3,852 3,682
Merchandise Exports (USD mn) 6,347 11,130 11,940 10,047
Merchandise Exports (as a % of GDP) 26.0 14.0 14.2 12.4
Services Exports (USD mn) 1,539 5,605 7,474 3,035
Services Exports (as a % of GDP) 6.3 7.1 8.9 3.8
External Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) (2.7) (2.5) (2.2) (1.3)
Overall Fiscal Balance (as a % GDP) (7.0) (5.7) (9.6) (11.1)
Central Government Debt (as a % GDP) 90.8 72.3 86.8 101.0
Central Government External Debt (as a % GDP) 39.0 30.0 41.3 40.4
Outstanding International Sovereign Bonds (as a % of GDP) - 6.3 17.9 17.4
Avg. Exchange Rate (Rs./USD) 100.50 130.56 178.78 185.52
Year End Exchange Rate (Rs./USD) 102.12 131.05 181.63 186.41
Gross Official Reserves (USD mn) 2,735.0 8,208.4 7,642.4 5,664.3
Inflation (Change in CCPI) 11.0 3.3 4.3 4.6
All Share Price Index (1985=100) 1,922.2 7,299.0 6,129.2 6,774.2
Stock Market Capitalisation (USD bn) 5.7 23.7 15.7 15.9
5 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021
Weakening of the economy, along with the effect of the COVID-19
pandemic, has recently caused anxiety about the macroeconomic stability
and the sustainability of the Sri Lankan economy…
Sources: Various Media Reports
6 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021
Although the economy grew by 8.0% in H1 2021, disruptions to labour
market outcomes have been observed with the Pandemic…
Annual Real GDP Growth (Y-o-Y) Contribution to Quarterly Real GDP Growth (Y-o-Y)
12.3
12 15
8.0
6.2
5.3
10
4.5
4.3
4.0
3.9
3.9
8
3.7
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.5
2.3
2.0
2.1
4.5
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.3
-1.8
3.6 3.3 5
4 2.3
0
%
0
%
-5
Agriculture Industry
-4 -10 Services Taxes Less Subsidies
-3.6
-16.4
-15 GDP
-8
-20
-9.1
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2017 Q3
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2016 Q4
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2016 Q3
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
2020 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
-12
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020H1 2021H1
Source: Department of Census and Statistics Source: Department of Census and Statistics
Extent of Rebound across Peer Economies (2020Q2 Vs. 2021Q2) Unemployment
30 7
20.1 5.7 5.8 5.7
14.7 16.1 6 5.1 5.4 5.2
20 12.3 4.7 4.9
5 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5
6.6 7.1 7.5 7.6 7.9 4.1 4.1
10 3.2 4
0.4
%
0 3
2
%
-10 -5.3 1
-12.1 -10.1
-20 -13.3 0
-16.4 -17.2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
-30 -24.4
Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Japan China Sri Lanka Singapore Malaysia India 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Q2-2020 Q2-2021 Source : Department of Census and Statistics Source : Department of Census and Statistics
7 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The external sector has experienced unprecedented challenges amidst
the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic…
Imports increasing at a higher pace than exports leading to a Drastically reduced earnings from tourism since Easter Sunday
significant deficit in the trade account… attacks…
30 22.2
5,000 4,381
18.9 19.2 21.0 19.9 3,925
20 16.1
13.3 4,000 3,518 3,607
10.5 10.3 11.4 11.9 11.9 10.0 7.9 2,981
USD mn
10 3,000
USD bn
0 2,000
-10 -5.5 1,000 682
-8.4 -8.0 -6.0
-8.9 -9.6 -10.3 33
-20 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Export Import Trade Deficit [Jan-Aug (a)] (Jan-Aug)
(a) August 2021 export and import data are preliminary unadjusted data from Sri Lanka Customs.
Gross official reserves declining with continued large debt service Despite the multitude of challenges, Sri Lanka continued to honour
payments… the country’s debt service obligations…
10 5.1 6 8
4.6 4.6 4.6 6.0 6.0
8 4.2 5 5.8 5.6
3.8 3.7 6 5.2 5.3
USD bn
4
USD bn
Months
6
2.2 3 4
4
2
2 1 2
8.2 7.3 6.0 8.0 6.9 7.6 5.7 3.5
0 0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (Jan-Aug)
(Est. at
Gross Official Reserves Months of Imports (Right Axis) end Aug) FX Capital Repayments - Government FX Interest Payments - Government
8 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The budget deficit has increased in nominal terms, due to rise in recurrent
expenditure and weakened revenue amidst the COVID-19 pandemic…
Government Revenue Key Fiscal Balances
1,920 1,891 Jan-Jul Jan-Jul
2,000 16 2018 2019 2020 prov. 2020 prov. 2021 prov.
208 156 14
Percentage of GDP
1,368 300 0
1,500 12 0 -2
Percentage of GDP
151 10
Rs. bn
763 799 -300 -4
1,000 8
Rs. bn
1,712 1,735 -600 -6
93 82 6
500 1,217 4 -900 -8
670 717 2 -1,200 -10
0 0 -1,500 -12
2018 2019 2020 prov. Jan-Jul Jan-Jul -1,800 -14
2020 prov. 2021 prov. Current Account Balance Primary Balance
Non Tax Revenue Tax Revenue Total Revenue (% of GDP) Overall Fiscal Balance Overall Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Government Expenditure Central Government Debt
3,500 3,338 25 Domestic Debt Foreign Debt
3,041 16,752
Percentage of GDP
3,000 2,693 913 15,117
493 20
2,500 604 13,032
1,814 15 12,031 6,434
Rs. bn
2,000 1,638 236 6,052
Rs. bn
1,500 180 10
2,425 2,548 5,960 6,201
1,000 2,090
1,458 1,578 5
500
9,065 10,317
0 0 6,830
2018 2019 2020 prov. Jan-Jul Jan-Jul
6,071
2020 prov. 2021 prov.
Capital Expenditure and Net Lending Recurrent Expenditure 2018 2019 2020 Prov. End July
Expenditure & Net Lending (% of GDP) 2021 Prov.
9 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Although inflation has remained broadly subdued, a notable expansion of
money and credit has been observed…
Contribution to Year-on-year growth of Broad Money (M2b) Credit to the Private Sector by LCBs
200 40
30 24.6 134.1 30
26.5 150
17.7 23.4 21.0
15 100 15.9 20
13.0 7.0 4.2 15.1
%
Rs. bn
6.5 50 6.5 10
0
%
0 0
-15 -50 -10
Apr-21
Apr-20
Aug-15
Aug-17
Dec-17
Apr-19
Aug-14
Dec-15
Dec-14
Aug-18
Aug-16
Dec-18
Aug-19
Dec-19
Dec-16
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Aug-21
Aug-20
Dec-20
-100 -20
Aug-15
Dec-19
Dec-15
Aug-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Aug-14
Dec-14
Aug-16
Dec-16
Aug-17
Dec-17
Aug-18
Dec-18
Apr-14
Aug-21
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-19
Apr-18
Aug-20
Dec-20
Net Foreign Assets Credit to the Private Sector Credit to Public Corporations
Claims on Government (net) Other Items (net) Broad Money (M2b) growth
Domestic credit growth Monthly change in credit (Absolute terms) Growth of credit (y-o-y) (RHS)
Net Claims on Government - Annual Increase Movements in Headline and Core Inflation (Y-o-Y) - CCPI
1,800 10
1,600 1,752
1,400 8
1,200 6 4.8 5.7
1,000 1,134 3.1 4.2
4 4.8
Rs. bn
800 5.0
600 2.8
%
400
2 3.5
200 324 213 196 348 0
135 279
0
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-16
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-16
Jan-21
May-18
May-19
Sep-21
Jan-20
May-20
May-21
Sep-20
2019
2021 Jan-
2017
2014
2015
2016
2018
2020
Aug
Headline (Y-o-Y) based on CCPI Core (Y-o-Y) based on CCPI
10 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021When quantified, the official responses have been quite impressive and
perhaps not received sufficient acknowledgement…
Proactive vaccination programmes COVID-19 Saubagya Refinance
Scheme
Rs. 165.5 bn
(1.1% of GDP)
Fiscal stimulus and financial assistance
Government Support*
to needy families
Movement related control measures Rs. 2,002 bn Financial support to the
CBSL Support
(13.4% of GDP) Government**
Tax exemptions for medical equipment
Savings to the Private Sector
in the form of Rs. 365 bn
PCR and rapid antigen tests reduced interest cost*** (2.4% of GDP)
Provision of healthcare facilities Saving in terms of reduced
Rs. 313 bn interest cost to the
(2.1% of GDP) Public Sector***
Community awareness programmes
Extended Debt Moratoria****
Monetary Policy Capital fallen due (Banks & NBFIs)
Rs. 209 bn Easing Measures Rs. 780 bn
** Support in 2020 and up to 24 September 2021
* Includes Govt. support in 2020 and up to 07 September 2021
*** Savings in 2020 and up to end July 2021
**** Same borrower may have obtained concessions under different schemes/ phases
11 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021In fact, the rapid progress of the vaccination drive and the gradual lifting
of global travel restrictions provide hope for better prospects…
97.9% of the population above 20 years received at least one dose
Sri Lanka :
• The rapid vaccination rollout (by 30 Sep 2021)
79.1% of the population above 20 years is fully vaccinated
53.5% of the total population was fully vaccinated
has started to pay off with
rapidly declining COVID-19 World : 44.9% of the population received at least one dose
cases and hospitalisations (by 28 Sep 2021) 33.0% of the total population was fully vaccinated
Share of population who have received COVID-19 Vaccines
Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
(as of 28 September 2021)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
12,000 250
Cambodia 65% 13% 78%
Daily COVID-19 Cases Daily COVID-19 Deaths
10,000 200 Maldives 62% 10% 72%
Malaysia 61% 10% 71%
No. of Deaths
8,000
No. of Cases
150 Sri Lanka 54% 13% 67%
6,000 India 17% 29% 46%
100 World 33% 12% 45%
4,000
Thailand 23% 19% 42%
2,000 50
Indonesia 18% 14% 32%
0 0 Pakistan 12% 14% 26% Share of people fully vaccinated
Jul-20
May-21
Dec-20
Jul-21
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Feb-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Apr-20
Oct-20
Aug-21
Aug-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
Nepal 21% 3% 24% Share of people partly vaccinated
Bangladesh 10% 5% 15%
Source : Ministry of Health Myanmar 6% 4% 10% Source : Ourworldindata.org
12 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021We have faced tough challenges even in the past…
• 443 years of foreign rule from 1505 to 1948
• A three-decade long internal conflict and two insurrections
• Power and energy crises from time to time
− Power cuts
− Fuel crises (shutdown of refineries, substandard fuel imports)
• Severe droughts, major floods and Natural disasters (including a Tsunami)
• A Global Pandemic
• Double digit rates of inflation prior to 2009, requiring high market interest rates
• Depletion of forex reserves
• External sector imbalances and forex controls: Rating downgrades
• Sustained periods of debt levels being over 100% of GDP
But, as a nation, we have always overcome…
13 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021In that background, we now need to give clarity to all stakeholders on
their expected role to address these challenges in a sustainable manner…
Government
People of Sri Lanka Banking Sector
Non-bank Sector
Central Bank
Exporters
Capital and Debt
Markets ECONOMIC &
PRICE STABILITY Importers
Non-resident
Sri Lankans FINANCIAL SYSTEM
FX lenders/
Sovereign Rating STABILITY borrowers
Agencies
Development
Retailers and Partners
Wholesalers
Investors
Exchange Houses
Industrialists Service Exporters
14 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021We propose a three-pronged framework to strengthen the economy and
deliver macroeconomic stability…
• Six-month Road Map from 01 October 2021 to 31 March 2022
- Focused efforts on Macroeconomic and Financial System Stability
- Near-term measures to ensure continued timely debt servicing
- Increase forex liquidity in the market
- Create framework for all enterprises to recover from the Pandemic-effect
• One-year horizon from 01 January 2022 to 31 December 2022
(to be announced on 04 January 2022)
- Improve the external debt profile while concentrating on non-debt inflows
- Deliver the fiscal and external targets
- Promote a fast recovery in the real economy
- Improve the Sovereign ratings and Ease of Doing Business
• Medium- to long-term horizon
- Build stable “cushions” in all macro-fundamentals to absorb any shock
- Strengthen the domestic production economy
- Strive for higher growth within a low inflation environment
- Ensure the achievement of fiscal and monetary targets
15 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The Central Bank will take immediate steps to ensure stability of the
external sector by closely focusing on the near-term horizon,
i.e., the next six-month period…
• The rationale for this short-term focus is that, given the forex challenge and
debt service concerns, the proper management of this period will result in
clarity and certainty being restored which will enable the economy to rebound
• By the end of that six-month horizon, the current efforts to enhance
merchandise and services exports inflows will also show significant
achievements, while a normalisation in tourism cashflows is also likely
• The FDI pipeline is expected to increase with the Port City and industrial zones
taking off
Such outcomes will provide a stable foundation for
the external sector by the end of the targeted six months
16 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021This new effort will require
Key set of outcomes expected from major stakeholders:
coordinated efforts of all
Government: A business-friendly budget; Improved non-debt
stakeholders of the external inflows; Active support to raise funds in order to change the debt-
sector, with vital, but mix
moderate contributions by Central Bank: Macroeconomic and Financial System Stability as
demanded in the Monetary Law Act; Ensure stable exchange rate
each stakeholder… and interest rate structure
• Policy guidance by the Government and Banking sector: Greater transparency in domestic foreign
the Central Bank will help the required exchange transactions; New funds and credit lines from abroad;
adjustments to take place gradually during Close co-operation with the Central Bank to ensure export
the period of transformation of the proceeds conversion
economy to greater stability Merchandise and Service Exporters: Avoidance of adverse
• These efforts will also prompt positive speculation on exchange rate, and remit and convert export
actions of international investors and proceeds on time; Growth in export businesses
international rating agencies. Actions of Importers: Curtail non-essential and non-urgent imports
global central banks will also influence the Retailers and wholesalers: Avoidance of hoarding essential
way forward imported and local goods; Avoid attempt to earn supra-normal
profits by raising margins and charging exorbitant prices
A single sector would not be overly
Global Sri Lankans: Increase remittances and non-debt creating
burdened, but ALL will need to contribute inflows
17 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Several key issues around government debt would need some clear policy
responses…
Significant pressure on fiscal Outstanding Central Government Debt
Sri Lanka’s Sovereign Ratings
operations amidst the Pandemic (as at end year)
16,000 15,117 110 Moody's Global Ratings
B1 (S) B1 (P) B1 (S)
Accumulation of external debt 14,000
12,031
13,032
101.0
105 B1 (N)
B2 (S)
over the years has raised 12,000 100
10,383
sustainability concerns
Percentage of GDP
9,479 6,052 Caa1 (S)
10,000 8,599 6,201 95
5,960
Debt raised through ISBs 7,487
Rs. bn
8,000 4,719 86.8 90
Jun-18
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-11
Jun-17
Jun-19
Dec-20
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-19
Dec-11
Dec-15
Dec-17
Dec-10
Dec-18
Jun-20
Jun-21
4,046
between April 2018 to June 2019 6,000
3,544 84.2
85
3,113
(15 months) amounted to a 78.5 79.0 9,065
77.9 Fitch Ratings
staggering USD 6.9 bn 4,000
4,374 6,071 6,830
80
BB- (S) BB- (N)
BB- (N)
2,000 72.3
5,433 5,664 75 B+ (S) B+ (S) B+ (N) B+ (S)
The COVID-19 pandemic impacted 5,055
B (S)
tourism, investment flows, other 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
70 B+ (N) B+ (N)
B- (N)
forex earnings and inflows CCC
Foreign Debt Domestic Debt Central Government Debt/GDP(RHS)
Jun-10
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Jun-14
Dec-08
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-16
Jun-11
Jun-15
Jun-17
Jun-19
Jun-18
Dec-20
Jun-08
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-12
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Jun-21
Jun-20
Dec-13
Rating downgrades and adverse Lenders are fully aware of the
speculation impacted access to country’s unblemished debt S&P Global Ratings
conventional financing servicing record for over 70 years B+ (S) B+ (S) B+ (S)
B+ (P)
B+ (S) B+ (S)
B+ (N) B (P)
Confidence on the debt servicing post independence with reassured B+ (N)
B (S) B+ (N)
B (S)
B (N)
B (S)
ability was restored with willingness to honour debt B (N) B- (S)
CCC+ (S)
successful payments of two ISBs High yields prevail in the ISB CCC+ (N)
amounting to USD 2 bn since the secondary market, but minimal
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-12
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Jun-10
Jun-13
Jun-11
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-15
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Dec-20
Jun-06
Jun-08
Jun-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-16
Pandemic quantities available
18 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The banking sector has been resilient, but will need to deal with a few
issues…
Capital Profitability
• Pressures on foreign 20 60 4
currency liquidity condition 15 40
3
%
2
%
%
10
• Prolonged moratoria to the
20
1
5 0 0
Pandemic-affected 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mar'21 Jun'21 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mar'21 Jun'21 Aug'21
CET 1 CAR (%) Tier 1 CAR (%) ROE-AT (LHS) Efficiency Ratio (LHS)
borrowers and potential Total CAR (%) Leverage Ratio (%) ROA-BT (RHS) Interest Margin (LHS)
drawbacks to the sustainable Liquidity Assets Quality
recovery of the post- 300 40 100 10
Pandemic economy 50 5
%
%
200 20
%
%
• Increasing stock of credit to 100
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
Mar'21 Jun'21 Aug'21
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
Mar'21 Jun'21 Aug'21
Government and SOBEs by LCR-LKR (LHS) LCR-All Currency (LHS) Specific Provision Coverage Ratio (LHS) Provision Coverage Ratio (LHS)
licensed banks NSFR (LHS) SLAR - DBU & Bank (RHS) Gross NPL Ratio (RHS) Net NPL Ratio (RHS)
Amount as at end (Rs. tn) Y-o-Y Growth (%)
• Emerging threats to Item
Dec '20 Aug '21 Dec '20 Aug '21
Assets 14.7 16.4 17.1 18.9
operational resilience Loans 9.1 10.4 11.9 18.0
Investments 4.2 4.5 21.7 23.8
including IT and Deposits 11.1 12.5 21.6 20.6
cybersecurity Borrowings 1.7 2.0 0.8 13.9
Capital Funds 1.3 1.4 11.0 16.2
19 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The Non-banking sector also had to deal with several challenges that have
escalated in the past few years…
Assets, Loans, Deposits and Borrowings of the NBFI Sector
• Implementation of the Consolidation 1,800 FY16
programme has been slow 1,600
1,529
1,441
1,535 1,502
1,532
FY17
FY18
1,400 1,290 1,204 1,205 FY19
• The plight of depositors of the failed 1,128 1,141 1,167 1,181 FY20
1,200 1,032
FY21
Rs. bn
1,000 875 763 Jul- 21
finance companies has to be addressed 800
558
692
751 758 768
600 490 436 442
• Possible revival of failed finance 400
375 418 391290
285
200
companies has to be seriously -
considered Total Assets (Gross) Gross Loans and Advances
Note: Figures for end of Financial Year
Total Deposits Total Borrowings
ROA, ROE, CAR and NPL Ratios of the NBFI Sector
• Continuation of concessions for NBFI 25
customers and NBFIs have to be 20 17.0
20.0
supported by the authorities 17.2
Per cent
15 14.5 15.4
12.0 12.5
11.8 12.5 12.7
10 11.3
• Strong regulatory framework has to be 11.7 10.6
6.6
5 3.5 3.7 3.0 3.8 3.2 3.4
2.8
established to address structural and 0 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 3.3
business model issues in the sector Mar -16 Mar -17 Mar -18 Mar -19 Mar -20 Mar -21 Jul- 21
Total CAR Net NPL ROA ROE
20 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021In the case of exporters, the goods flow has taken place, but financial
flows have not kept pace…
Monthly Export Earnings Exports from Jan to Aug (2018-2021): USD mn
• A wide gap exists between the goods 1,200 1,104 8,030
flow and financial flow of exports 1,100
1,000
1,083 7,842 33
7,885
34 44
• Due to an undue speculation on 900
800
753 752
883
USD mn
6,445
exchange rate movements, there has 700
600
970
915
24 882
2019
been a reluctance to convert export 500 710
400 2020 1,675
earnings, thereby limiting inflows to 300 2021
1,661 806 1,682
200
the domestic foreign exchange market 328
1,295 278
Aug
Feb
Jun
Sep
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Oct
Nov
Apr
388
591
• Inadequate repatriation/conversion of 584
268
682
489
proceeds by exporters capitalising on Financial Flow Goods Flow
interest rate arbitrage has constrained 3,737
Average monthly 3,452 3,434
Government efforts to support the Monthly merchandise exports 2,853
economy and the export sector itself average
amount to
USD 985 mn
export
Jan-Aug-2018 Jan-Aug-2019 Jan-Aug-2020 Jan-Aug-2021
• There is a necessity to ensure that the proceeds
repatriated Monthly Gap Mineral & other exports Other agricultural exports
foreign exchange generated through between the goods Tea Other industrial exports
amount to
export activities are duly repatriated (exports) flow and Petroleum products Rubber products
USD 640 mn the financial flow Textiles and garments
into the country and converted to Sri
USD 345 mn
Lankan Rupees Note: August 2021 data are unadjusted and preliminary
21 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021A few pressures have built up in the case of importers and imports as
well…
Monthly import expenditure Monthly non-fuel import expenditure
2,000 1,800
• Speculative imports are on 1,800 1,710 1,600
1,619 1,454
the rise 1,600 1,400 1,334
USD mn
USD mn
• Total non-fuel import
1,400 1,200
1,200 1,000
expenditure has surged, 1,000 800
despite continuation of some 800
2019 2020 2021
600
2019 2020 2021
import controls
Feb
Jan
Apr
Nov
Mar
Aug
May
Jul
Sep
Jun
Dec
Oct
Feb
Apr
Jan
Nov
Mar
Aug
May
Jun
Jul
Sep
Dec
Oct
• Monthly average gap between Trade deficit Import indices - Jan to July
the conversions of export 10
200
19.4 %
Index Points (2010=100)
8.0 30.7%
proceeds (with an incomplete 8
6.0
150
5.5
repatriation) and expenditure
USD bn
6 4.9 9.5%
3.8 100
4
on imports has been
2 50
worrisome 0
2019 2020 Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Jan-Aug 0
2019 2020 2021 Value Index Volume Index Unit Value Index
2020 2021
Note: August 2021 data are unadjusted and preliminary
22 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Service exporters (other than Tourism) seem to have been less affected
by the Pandemic…
Inflows to the IT-BPO Sector
• Despite the impact of the 1,200
Pandemic on the tourism 1,000
7.9%
6.1%
8.0%
sector, other services 800
7.8%
7.0%
8.5%
exporters, especially the 18.5%
USD mn
600
6.4%
971
IT/BPO sector, have 400
677 724 786 848 899
576
performed well 200 486
0
• Transportation sector 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 H1 2021 H1
also shows signs of Port Services - Container Handling Port Services - Cargo Handling
improvement 700
10,000
650 9,500
9,000
600
TEUs' 000
• Currently there are no
MT' 000
8,500
550 8,000
requirements on the 500 7,500
repatriation of “export 450
7,000
6,500
proceeds” in trade in 400 6,000
services Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020 2021
23 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Industrialists have also faced several challenges…
• Diversification of Value Addition in Manufacturing Sector - 2020
industry sector, 21.8% Food, beverages & Tobacco products
particularly Textiles, wearing apparel and leather related products
manufacturing sector, 40.5%
Chemical products and basic pharmaceutical products
has been limited 5.5%
Furniture
• Industrial exports 5.9%
Other non- metallic mineral products
growth has been less 6.8%
Other
than satisfactory 19.4%
• Import content of 10,000
Industrial Exports
production for domestic USD mn 8,000
market is often high, and 6,000
this is also a matter that 4,000
2,000
will require special 0
attention 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
24 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Foreign Exchange Houses have faced serious problems due to lockdown
and dearth of tourists…
• The almost-zero tourist arrivals have affected Workers’ Remittances
the turnover requirements of the authorised 900
Departures for foreign employment (right axis)
25,000
money changers 800 Workers' remittances
• Licenses of some authorised money changers 20,000
700
have been cancelled for non-performance
• Rise in “parallel” exchange rate market 600
USD mn
15,000
activities is hindering forex liquidity in the 500
banking system
400
• Unofficial forex channels seem to be
10,000
300
thriving, while official remittance flows
are on the decline due to a wide margin 200
5,000
between the official exchange rates and 100
the “grey-market” exchange rates
0 0
Jan-19
Dec-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
May-19
Jul-19
Nov-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Feb-19
Oct-19
Mar-20
Apr-20
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Jan-20
May-20
Jan-21
May-21
Jul-20
Jul-21
Aug-20
Dec-20
Sep-20
Aug-21
Feb-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
• Urgent need to re-commence departures
for foreign employment
Sources: Licensed Banks, Central Bank of Sri Lanka
25 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Responses of Retailers and Wholesalers who are affected by the uncertainty
have aggravated the situation…
Food Inflation (Y-o-Y)
• Stockpiling by the wholesalers and retailers has
16.0
resulted in tension in food distribution which
had to be dealt with by the Government with 14.0
strong responses 12.0
• Unreasonable escalation in retail and wholesale 10.0 9.2
10.0
prices, especially for essential food items and
8.0
consumer durables has occurred
6.0 6.3
• Producers have however unfortunately not
%
benefitted by such higher consumer prices 4.0
• Higher wastage of perishable items has occurred 2.0
during periods with mobility restrictions 0.0
-2.0
• These matters have warranted several price
-4.0
ceilings in the market, thereby distorting the
Mar-17
Jun-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Mar-20
Mar-15
Dec-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Mar-19
Jun-21
Sep-15
Sep-16
Dec-17
Mar-18
Dec-15
Sep-19
Dec-18
Dec-19
Jun-20
Mar-21
Sep-20
Sep-21
Dec-20
market mechanism
26 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Workers’ Remittances by Non-resident Sri Lankans have recorded mixed
results…
Workers’ Remittances
• Despite recording more than 1,000
USD 500 mn per month 900 813
consecutively from June 2020 800 675 702
664
703
700 612 631 612
till April 2021, workers’ 580 572 665
USD mn
600 581 554 626 607
527 571 562
remittances moderated in 500 545 500
519 460
537 453 518 516 515
400 492 447
recent months 300 375
432
478
• The prevailing large exchange 200
100
rate anomaly between official 0
and unofficial channels, which Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
drives foreign exchange earners Sources: Licensed Banks, Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2019 2020 2021
to use unofficial channels, and • 2021 Aug : USD 447 mn (-32.8%, y-o-y)
the dwindling number of
departures could be the major • 2021 (Jan-Aug) : USD 4,224 mn (-2.8%, y-o-y)
contributing factors for this • 2020 (Jan-Aug): USD 4,346 mn
behaviour • 2020: Workers’ remittances increased by 5.8% (y-o-y)
27 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Sri Lankan stocks and securities have performed well, albeit with foreign
participation reducing…
Movements of Key Stock Indices - 2021
All Share Price Index (ASPI)
• Foreigners have gradually withdrawn from YTD* (%)
10,000 9,459.9
investing in Equity and G-secs 9,000 Sri Lanka (ASPI) +39.6%
Index Points
8,000 India (Sensex) +23.8%
• Unwarranted fear of default triggered by 7,000
6,129.2 US (S&P 500) +16.1%
rating downgrades despite Sri Lanka’s 6,000
4,248.0
5,000 Germany (DAX) +11.9%
unblemished track record of debt 4,000
Australia (ASX 200) +11.3%
Aug-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Oct-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
Sep-20
Dec-20
Jan-20
Jan-21
May-21
Dec-19
May-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-20
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-21
Apr-21
repayment, has aggravated the situation Japan (Nikkei) +7.3%
Source: Colombo
Source: ColomboStock
Stock Exchange
Exchange
• Fear of depreciation in the LKR has also been UK (FTSE) +10.4%
Foreign Holdings of G-Secs and Equity (in USD)
a factor Korea (KOSPI) +6.8%
End 2014 End Sep 2021 Singapore (STI) +8.5%
G-Secs 3,489 mn 9 mn Hong Kong (HSI) -9.8%
• Nevertheless, CSE remains one of Equity (CSE) 6,806 mn 3,970 mn *30 Sep 2021 Source: marketwatch
the best performing equity Net Foreign Investments in G-secs and CSE (in USD mn)
markets in the region with 441
5 122
heightened local investor interest -32 -27 -226
-324 -133 -334 -65 -553 -276 -606
-1,093 -990
• The new SEC Act is bound to re- G-Secs CSE (Secondary Market) -2,880
kindle interest 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total
(thus far) (2015-2021 latest)
28 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The Central Bank has also 10
Gross Official Reserves
6 220
Recent Exchange Rate Behaviour
faced challenges in 5
210
Months
USD bn
4
LKR/USD
5 3
2 200
delivering its stability 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1
0
190
180
objectives owing to the (Est. at
Jun-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jan-21
May-21
Aug-21
Feb-21
Gross Official Reserves end
Aug)
Months of Imports (Right Axis)
prevailing difficult Central Bank Holdings of Government Treasury Bill Yields and Standing Rate
Securities (Face Value) Corridor
economic conditions… 1,500 1,330.3 9
8 7.01
1,000 725.2 7
6.99
Rs. bn
6
%
6.70
5
• Depletion of foreign reserves 500
74.7
4
3
0 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21
• Pressure on exchange rate
Jan-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-20
Mar-21
Mar-20
Jan-20
Sep-20
Mar-19
Nov-19
May-20
Jan-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-20
Standing Rate Corridor 91- Day Treasury bill
182- Day Treasury bill 364- Day Treasury bill
• Need to support monetary Outstanding Int’l Sovereign Bonds (ISB)
Exchange Rate Impact on Central
Government Debt
stimuli and deal with the 20 ISBs outstanding (USD bn)
ISBs outstanding (% of GDP) (Right Axis)
17.9 17.4
16.0
20 1,400
Foreign Debt
1,200
possible inflationary 15
11.0
13.8
15
1,000 Foreign Currency
1,063
% of GDP
9.9
USD bn
8.3 800 Denominated Domestic Debt
pressures in the medium term 10 10
Rs. bn
6.3
4.6 5.1 4.7 600
3.5 356
5 1.5 2.4 5 400
1.2 285
• Hindrances to the monetary
187 225
200
- 0 12
0
2011
2010
2018
2012
2013
2014
2016
2015
2017
2019
2007
2008
2009
2020
2021 (Est)
transmission mechanism -200 -89
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
29 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021People of Sri Lanka have faced challenges due to the Pandemic, although
several Governmental policy responses have been helpful…
• Speculative demand has Nominal GDP Loss* (Year-on-Year)
Unemployment Rate and Labour Force
Participation Rate
driven up imports 800 619
8 52.6 52.6 52.2
Participation Rate
53
• Resistance to change (e.g., 600
Labour Force
51.9 5.7
400 254 258 198
330
6 5.4 5.8 5.2 5.7 52
178 166 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.5
Organic Fertiliser Policy) 123 86 51.0 51.0 50.9
Rs. bn
200
Rs. bn
4 50.2 51
0 50.1
• Ongoing lockdown and the -200 2 50
slow recovery in international -400
0 49
-600
travel has affected the -800 -582 * Minus signs indicates a loss
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
informal sector workers, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021
Unemployment Rate
Labour Force Participation Rate
especially in the tourism Source: Department of Census and Statistics Source: Department of Census and Statistics
sector Allocations by the Government to
Earnings from Tourism
• Reduction of inward Mitigate the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak
remittances 140
475
460
455
461
500 120
334
• Lockdown effect
307
315
279
400 100
271
224
218
205
Rs. bn
300
USD mn
80
119
200
96
− 2020: 66 days of stringent 60
71
100 40
6
6
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
3
lockdown
2
2
2
1
0
20
Feb
Apr
Jan
Nov
Mar
Aug
May
Jun
Jul
Oct
Dec
Sep
− 2021: 42 days of less stringent 0
2019 2020 2021 2020 2021 (Up to 07 September)
lockdown so far Sources: SLTDA, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Source: Ministry of Finance
30 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The framework that we will outline today in a
TO-DO-LIST form will help Sri Lanka to reset
its course to face the challenges in the next six
months and thereafter…
31 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The TO-DO-LIST will respond to the main challenges and include the main
stakeholders…
The Government
The Central Bank
Banking/ Non-bank Sector
Merchandise Exporters
Services Exporters
Importers
Industrialists/ Property Developers
Borrowers/ Savers
Foreign Exchange Houses
Those Remitting Their Earnings
Share Market/ Corporate Debt Market Participants
32 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The TO-DO-LIST will focus on the Critical Issues that threaten
Economic and Price Stability and Financial System Stability…
Critical Issues
Debt and Forex Concerns
Financial Sector Concerns
Macroeconomic Stability Concerns
33 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Critical Issues
Debt and Forex Concerns
Financial Sector Concerns
Macroeconomic Stability Concerns
34 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Monitor forex flows (exports and investments) through the Presidential Task Force
(Target to increase exports to above USD 1.0 bn per month, on average during the
remainder of 2021) - (ongoing)
• Arrange high-level discussions with respective Governments to secure short to
medium term G2G financing to buttress inflows (Short-term target: USD 1.0 bn;
Next 3 months: USD 500 mn) - (ongoing)
Resolving • Monetise selected non-strategic and under-utilised assets (Target: USD 1.0 bn)
debt and - (ongoing)
• Publish Port City Commission by-laws to attract FDIs into the Colombo Port City
forex issues: - (to be done)
• Promote the dedicated industrial zones for Pharmaceutical and other industries in
Government several areas to attract new FDIs - (ongoing)
• Facilitate inflows from the implementation of the Tax Amnesty through the
Finance Act (Target: USD 100 mn) - (to be done)
• Rebase GDP (which is overdue by 1 ½ years) without further delay, to reflect the
true size of the economy - (to be done)
• Announce a business-friendly budget with detailed financing strategies
- (to be done)
35 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Introduce appropriate tax adjustments to promote domestic value
addition of exports and ensure conversion of export earnings;
Discourage forex leakages through online and informal channels
- (to be done)
• Encourage import alternatives - (ongoing)
Resolving • Introduce a mechanism to allow the import of motor vehicles to Sri
debt and Lanka using foreign earnings or FDI, with relevant taxes being paid
to the Government in forex - (suggest to consider)
forex issues: • Immediately prepare the entire country for the resumption of
Government tourism - (ongoing)
• Continue the scheme to pay an extra Rs. 2 per USD remitted and
converted by workers abroad - (ongoing)
• Continue the payment of addition interest on Special Deposit
Accounts (SDAs) - (ongoing)
36 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Provide forex liquidity to the market to part-finance energy bills
- (ongoing)
• Negotiate short-term currency swaps with international counterparts
(Target: USD 1.5 bn) - (ongoing)
Resolving • Facilitate Government-to-Government foreign inflows - (ongoing)
debt and • Gradually reduce ISB exposures towards 10% of GDP by 2024 and
maintain that ratio thereafter - (ongoing)
forex issues: • Facilitate non-debt creating foreign exchange inflows - (ongoing)
Central Bank • Issue Directions to exporters to convert export proceeds after allowing
permitted debits (Target of approximately USD 0.5 bn inflows per
month) - (ongoing)
• Issue Directions to exporters to convert export proceeds that have
accumulated from 2020 onwards, on a staggered basis in the next six
months (approximately USD 0.3 bn per month) - (ongoing)
37 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Install systems to monitor forex flows and strengthen compliance with
Repatriation and Conversion regulations - (ongoing)
• Pursue efforts to attract foreign investments into government securities
(Target: USD 1.0 bn) - (ongoing)
Resolving • Diversify SLDB investor base and attract foreign investments to SLDBs –
arrange for the complete roll-over of SLDBs over the next six months
debt and - (to be done)
forex issues: • Gradually ease Central Bank purchases of government securities
- (to be done)
Central Bank • Facilitate the improvement of the country’s sovereign credit ratings
- (to be done)
• Considering the REER, maintain the Rupee at the very competitive level of
Rs. 199 to Rs. 203 against the USD over the next three months, and review
thereafter - (ongoing)
…some of these are elaborated in the next few slides
38 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Systems to be put in place to ensure the close monitoring and conversion
of financial flows…
• The Central Bank has already Proposed ITRS system and envisaged outcome
initiated the implementation of an
International Transaction
Reporting System (ITRS) to track
banking sector forex inflows and
outflows
− The ITRS system will track
performance of different export-
oriented sectors, their funds
repatriations and conversions
− ITRS will provide better data that
will enable informed-decision
making related to the external
sector
− ITRS will be in force from 01 January
2022 onwards
39 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Efforts to attract foreign investments into government securities is expected
to gather momentum…
• Concerted efforts to engage domestic and international financial intermediaries
to tap potential investments for Treasury bills/ bonds will be pursued
• Attractive returns and opportunity to SWAP forex with the Central Bank will
remove the forex risk (zero cost SWAPs) and will facilitate new investments in
the near term
• Access for subscriptions either in the secondary market and/or through direct
issuances at prevailing rates for sizable volumes will be made available
• Efforts to market Sri Lanka’s investment opportunities in the Middle East and
Asia will commence in early October 2021 with direct meetings in the respective
regions
• Virtual meetings and possible direct meetings in Europe and USA are also
envisaged
40 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021The SLDB Investor base will be diversified to attract foreign investments
to SLDBs…
Immediate focus on SLDB investments…
Recent SLDB issuance indicators… • Attract government and private institutional investors for SLDBs from the
Middle East, Asia and rest of the world as well as eligible domestic
• SLDBs amounting to USD 1,002.4 mn will investors
mature in the next six months • Diversify the concentrated SLDB investor base
• 88.9% of the SLDB maturities in the next • SLDBs to be marketed in parcels ranging from USD 50 mn and multiples of
USD 50 mn as well
six months are being held by domestic
• SLDBs to be also directly negotiated with investors ahead of maturities in
banks the pipeline
• Concentration of SLDBs favour domestic • Applicable yield rates and maturities to be determined in line with most
banking sector investments recent primary auction offerings and market conditions
• Gradual increase in corporate sector Expected outcome; raise around an additional USD 300 mn in the next six
investor preference was observed in months
recent offerings Debt Service Payments on behalf of SLDBs (USD Mn)
• Average Time to Maturity (ATM) of Period SLDB Principal SLDB Interest
recent issuances tilted in favour of Oct 2021 to Mar 2022 1,002.4 65.5
shorter-tenure maturities 2022 1,404.8 98.7
• Investor preference seems to be for 2023 606.7 34.9
2024 206.1 10.1
fixed rate SLDBs
2025 20.9 1.2
2026 6.9 0.5
41 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021In the domestic market, financing efforts will be aligned with market
developments, while gradually reducing debt maturing within 1 year…
Debt maturing within 1 year
(percent of total debt)
• The increase in short-term debt has been mainly driven by
Pandemic circumstances and reliance on Treasury bills to
25
meet the Government’s financing requirements
• In the near-term, possible options to convert part of
20
maturing Treasury bills to Treasury bonds will be explored
• The direct issuance window of Treasury bonds and new
15
Treasury bill auction system is expected to build
opportunities to trim rollover volumes of Treasury bills and
%
21.46
10 20.24 near-term Treasury bonds
Target • The Central Bank will also explore the avenues to introduce a
15.31
5 tap-based Treasury bond issuance for benchmark maturities
of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30-year maturities
0 − The volume on offer will be limited and the yields will be linked
End Dec End Dec End Aug
2019 2020 2021 to 364-day maturity benchmark Treasury bill rate plus a margin
(Provisional)
− Both domestic and foreign investors will be invited to
Actual Baseline subscribe
42 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021
42The quantum of International Sovereign Bond debt stock will be gradually
reduced in the medium term and linked to the GDP…
• The policy of the Government Outstanding International Sovereign Bonds & Nominal GDP
and the Central Bank would 20 100
be to reduce the ISB exposure
to around 10% of GDP over the 15 75
next three years from around
18% of GDP by end 2019,
USD bn
USD bn
10 50
around 17% of GDP by end
2020, and to around 16% of
GDP by end 2021 5
Outstanding ISBs
25
Nominal GDP (Right Axis)
0 0
2019
2016
2014
2015
2017
2018
2020
2021E
43 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Considering the REER, efforts will be taken to maintain the Rupee at
the very competitive level of Rs. 199 to Rs. 203 against the USD over the
next three months, and review thereafter…
220
200 200.03
180
Rs. per USD
167.75
160
140
A gap of around Rs. 32 per USD
120 exists between the current exchange rate and REER 24
implied exchange rate
100
Sep-20
Jan-21
Nov-19
Mar-21
Jan-18
Nov-18
Jan-20
Mar-20
Mar-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
May-19
Nov-20
May-18
Sep-18
Sep-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Sep-21
May-20
May-21
Exchange Rate REER 24 Adjusted Exchange Rate
44 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021In managing the forex reserve, due regard will be paid to the differential
between building reserves through borrowing and investing in low-
yielding global assets…
“Invest” • Sri Lanka pays 6.8% on average on
borrowing through ISBs, while
1.4%
earning a return of 1.4%
in reinvesting such earnings in
Western countries
• Ties with regional economies will be
strengthened further with greater
focus on:
- South Asia
- Middle East
6.8% - East and South East Asia
“Loan” The Round Trip
45 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Mobilise fresh forex funding on competitive terms based on the strength
of the bank’s/ financial institution’s own balance sheets
(Target: USD 1.5 bn) - (to be done)
Resolving • Closely monitor forex positions while prudently screening the forex
debt and outflows - (to be done)
• Facilitate inflows expected with the implementation of the Tax Amnesty
forex issues: through the Finance Act - (to be done)
• Encourage forex investments in Sri Lanka G-Secs and SLDBs - (to be done)
Banking/ • Facilitate essential imports, wherever possible - (ongoing)
Non-bank • Engage with counterparties to dampen undue speculation on the debt
situation and enhance their knowledge on the Sri Lankan economy and
Sector the financial system - (ongoing)
• Support foreign investors to invest in non-bank sector institutions
- (to be done)
• Support the establishment of equity funds for SMEs - (to be done)
46 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Ensure repatriation of export proceeds within the stipulated periods
- (ongoing)
• Convert repatriated export proceeds into LKR after deducting the permitted
amounts of forex for intermediate and investment inputs - (to be done)
Resolving debt • Convert export proceeds already accumulated in forex deposits with banks
from 2020 onwards in accordance with the Central Bank Directions
and forex - (to be done)
− It is expected that exporters will proportionately convert accumulated balances
issues: within six months
− The introduction of dedicated non-interest bearing foreign currency accounts for
Merchandise export proceeds will encourage conversions
• Expand export businesses through product and market diversification
Exporters - (ongoing)
• Lay the foundation to move to more value added / high end products
- (ongoing)
• Attract foreign investments for business expansion and to enhance domestic
value addition - (ongoing)
• Promote branding Sri Lanka - (ongoing)
47 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021NO CHANGES
WHATSOEVER WILL BE MADE TO
PERSONAL FOREIGN
CURRENCY ACCOUNTS (PFCA)
(previously referred to as NRFC/RFC accounts of individuals)
AND THOSE WILL ENJOY
THE CURRENT FACILITIES AND PRIVILEGES
WITHOUT ANY CHANGE!
48 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Expand services exports and grow global
presence, particularly ICT services - (ongoing)
Resolving debt • Ensure repatriation and conversion of
and forex proceeds of services exports, and adhere to
systems that monitor forex flows related to
issues:
services - (to be done)
Services
• Prepare for the resumption of tourism, and
Exporters ensure the repatriation and conversion of
earnings - (ongoing)
49 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Avoid speculative demand for imports and
build up of large inventories - (ongoing)
• Supply goods to the domestic market with a
Resolving debt reasonable profit, rather than generating
super-normal profits through speculative price
and forex increases - (ongoing)
issues: • Diversify businesses with a greater focus on
Importers utilising domestic inputs
• Cash margin deposit requirements on “non-
essential/non-urgent imports” will be lifted
based on expected foreign inflows
50 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Avoid speculative purchases of imported inputs for domestic
production - (ongoing)
Resolving debt • Explore new opportunities through investment in production
for the domestic and export markets - (ongoing)
and forex • Utilise the dedicated industrial zones for Pharmaceutical and
issues: other industries through increased domestic investment and
partnerships with foreign investors - (to be done)
Industrialists/ • Expand campaigns to attract foreign investors for Sri Lankan
Property real estate, including condominiums - (to be done)
• Promote foreign investment in Sri Lankan real estate, based on
Developers the resident/long-term visa incentives, as well as investment in
Warehousing, Plug & Play Services, and Dedicated Zones for IT
- (to be done)
51 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Ensure forex inflows into formal channels with the use
of the existing and restored licenses - (to be done)
Resolving • Avoid informal, and/or illegal channels of forex
debt and inflows and outflows - (ongoing)
forex issues: • Refrain from parallel market activity at diverse
exchange rates - (ongoing)
Foreign • Modernise shop fronts with secured presence in
Exchange shopping complexes and with digital displays, in
preparation for resumption of tourism - (to be done)
Houses
52 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Remit earnings and savings through formal channels
Resolving - (ongoing)
debt and • Make use of high-interest rate opportunities
domestically in LKR - (ongoing)
forex issues:
• Work closely with local banks and use conveniences
Those that are now provided by them - (ongoing)
Remitting • Avoid risky unauthorised channels when remitting
hard earned money - (ongoing)
Their
Earnings
53 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
Resolving • Make use of opportunities for investment and
debt and expansion with the return of stability in the forex
markets and the interest rates
forex issues:
• Promote equity and corporate debt instruments and
Share offerings globally, with the passing of the new SEC Act
Market & • Attract investments into the equity market with the
Corporate passage of the Finance Act - (to be done)
• Attract investments into listed corporate debentures
Debt - (to be done)
Market
Participants
54 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021Critical Issues
Debt and Forex Concerns
Financial Sector Concerns
Macroeconomic Stability Concerns
55 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Support the efforts to strengthen the financial sector
through the introduction of appropriate tax reforms
to facilitate non-banking sector consolidation
• Reduce dependence on state-owned banks to fulfil
Financial financial requirements
Sector • Encourage State Owned Business Enterprises (SOBEs)
to diversify their borrowing sources
Concerns:
• Stop funding of certain losses in SOBEs by state banks
Government • Reduce dependence on state banks to finance
petroleum bills
56 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021To-Do-List
• Unwind moratoria gradually and devise long-term plans to support
businesses affected by the Pandemic-related lockdown
• Provide liquidity support of up to Rs. 15,000 mn to finance interest accrued
in loans that have been given the moratorium, so that FIs could deal with the
moratorium effect in a sustainable manner
Financial • Put in place an Emergency Lending Facility Framework
• Immediately suspend Parate Execution and forced repossession of leased
Sector assets up to 31.03.2022 for pandemic-affected borrowers
Concerns: • Cancel all penalties imposed by FIs during the moratorium period
• Implement consolidation plan for FIs to create FIs with better economies of
Central Bank scale
• Implement a comprehensive plan to deal with the six failed finance
companies and actively pursue the revival of those that could be revived
with new investment
• Ensure that all FIs develop “Post-COVID” Revival Units
• Stop multi-exchange rates taking place in the market
• Review governance and share ownership rules
57 A01 October
six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability
2021You can also read
