5G: How ready is Australia for the next generation?
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CONTENTS 3 Introduction 5 Characteristics of 5G 11 Current state of play in Australia and how to deliver a return on investment 18 What does it mean for Australian Industry? 20 Conclusion With thanks to following industry experts for their ideas and thought-leadership: Chris Althaus CEO, Australian Mobile Telecommunications Association (AMTA) Chris was appointed as CEO of AMTA in 2005. AMTA is the peak industry organisation representing Australia’s mobile telecommunications sector and operates programs covering all aspects of the mobile ecosystem. Prior to joining AMTA, Chris held Chief Executive roles in leading national industry associations. Will Heapy Director of Planning and Strategy, Axicom Prior to joining Axicom Will spent 14 years working with Crown Castle including 7 years in the United States most recently as VP Finance, Small Cells and Fibre. William holds an MBA from Macquarie Graduate School of Management and is a CPA with a Bachelor’s Degree in Commerce & Accounting. Seán O’Halloran CEO, Axicom Seán has been working in the technology and telecommunications industry across ANZ and Asia Pacific for nearly 30 years. Seán has significant experience in Executive General Management, Strategic Sales/Business Development Management and Engineering Network Services roles. Prior to joining Axicom in 2016, Seán held senior roles in Alcatel-Lucent, NEC, and MCI (now Verizon). Laurie Patton CEO, Australian Smart Communities Association (ASCA) Laurie Patton is CEO of ASCA, the NFP peak body representing people and organisations spearheading moves to make our communities more liveable, more sustainable and more technologically empowered. From 2014 to 2017 Laurie was CEO / Executive Director of Internet Australia, a chapter of the global Internet Society. Rob Zagarella Founder & CEO, National Narrowband Network Communications (NNNCo) Rob is founder and CEO of NNNCo, an Australian company building and operating a national narrowband network for IoT as an end-to-end scalable carrier service over a shared network. Rob’s an innovator and inventor in IoT in the area of machine-to-machine sensing, communications, wide area networking and enterprise software.
INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION Australia is accelerating towards 5G. Optus in January revealed plans to begin the roll out of 5G technology in Australia by early 2019 with a fixed wireless product in key metro areas. At the same time Telstra announced the opening of a 5G Innovation Centre on the Gold Coast with a view to support the early commercial deployment of 5G mobile services. Telstra had already suggested some deployment of services in 2020, which is the same year Vodafone Australia says it wants to make some 5G services available. This whitepaper provides an important update on progress towards the arrival of the next generation of networking in Australia. We wanted to take the opportunity to ask a number of important questions that are raised frequently in our conversations with partners and customers. In this whitepaper we looked for answers to three questions; 1. What are the characteristics of 5G? In addition to the core standards that will underpin 5G networks, the generation also depends on some new and emerging technologies and capabilities such as millimetre waves, small cells, beamforming, Massive MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) and full duplex transmission. 2. What is the current state of play in Australia? While the technology is increasingly settled, industry, customers, and regulators still have work to do. Then there are ongoing discussions and debates around the subject of spectrum allocation. There is also the perennial issue of site access as it concerns the different requirements of 5G, especially with the development of small cells. This is important for operators who will need to secure real estate early to ensure they can provide the best quality networks. The use of multi-purpose macro towers also adds some complexity to current arrangements on this issue. But perhaps the biggest, and as yet unresolved matter concerns how operators will deliver a return on investment to justify the investment they will need to make in new infrastructure. 3 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION 3. What does it mean for the Australian industry? The government is driving forward with its consultations across a range of issues such as spectrum allocation locally as well as harmonisation efforts internationally. It also wants to work with industry to streamline arrangements to allow mobile carriers to deploy infrastructure more quickly. It’s a live issue today for all four large carriers — Telstra, Optus, Vodafone and TPG are all thinking about their deployments. 5G is different. Previous step changes, such as that from 3G to 4G, were, with some variations, homogeneous technology evolutions from their predecessors. Generally speaking these changes involved either greater data carrying capacity or better coverage in terms of range or building penetration. Neither 3G or 4G were developed to support specific use cases. Instead, they were simply designed to do a better job of carrying voice and data. However, 5G will use a much greater range of technologies over a much greater range of frequencies. And it is designed from the outset to serve a much greater range of applications. As is often the case with any technology ecosystem, the needs of users and the response of developers has meant the networks have adjusted to demand. For instance, since the introduction of 4G there have been numerous developments to cater for specific use cases. Among the most notable are CAT-M1 and NB-IoT for IoT applications, and LTE-Broadcast to alleviate the load that popular real-time video content imposes on the network. This time, however, 5G has been designed from the outset to cater for a whole range of different use cases. 4 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? INTRODUCTION
Characteristics of 5G CHARACTERISTICS OF 5G For consumers, or at least those aware of 5G, the standout feature is greater throughput and the promise of much faster performance. However, it is in the field of business-to-business networking that 5G will have its biggest impact and, here, other issues are just as critical. New technologies are being developed that will support the emerging Internet of Things - a network that will see the deployment of billions of devices, the vast majority of which will provide only minimal and simple data points. Yet the sum of these devices and their data will revolutionise the way business works driving greater automation, fuelling applications like predictive maintenance, and dramatically improving service levels to companies and their customers. Given this scale of deployment, these devices will be built with batteries that will last a full decade, thus spanning the likely lifetime of the next generation of networks. The new technologies and approaches underpinning 5G will enable carriers to provide service levels and functionality tailored to the specific needs of business - including services such as network slicing. We will outline these key technologies, which include millimetre waves, small cell, Massive MIMO and beamforming shortly. The sum of these devices and their data will revolutionise the way business works driving greater automation, fuelling applications like predictive maintenance, and dramatically improving service levels to companies and their customers. 5 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CHARACTERISTICS OF 5G
Characteristics of 5G But first, to understand the impact and the necessity of new technologies let’s begin with the specification requirements that underpin 5G: 5G enables the Internet of Things to deliver on the promise of industrial ubiquity at global scale. 6 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CHARACTERISTICS OF 5G
Characteristics of 5G Low latency 5G will have a much lower latency than 4G in turn opening up a new world of applications. For instance, in a paper by Ericsson, Opportunities in 5G, The View from Eight Industries, the authors note: “5G will enable the quick reaction time required for operating machinery using haptic control, which allows the remote operator to ‘feel’what is going on in the machine’s environment. A doctor could, for instance, ‘feel’ his patient’s body in a distant operating room to avoid slicing through a vein; a machine operator could work remotely with great precision.” Low latency is also a key requirement for the quick reaction times needed for what is considered one of the most important applications to benefit from 5G — autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles. Support for IoT The Internet of Things is expected to be the biggest use case for 5G according to the Ericsson paper. “Industries that will benefit the most from 5G are those that connect something in the physical world to the internet in order to create innovative products or services, provide a better customer experience, increase efficiency, or improve safety.” 5G enables the IoT to deliver on the promise of industrial ubiquity at global scale. Indeed 5G is designed from the outset to cater for the specific requirements of IoT: the ability to support simple low cost devices that can run for a decade or more on battery power and that send and receive only small packets of data. Network slicing On today’s cellular networks, with limited exceptions, all devices are equal and must compete for bandwidth when usage approaches the network’s maximum capacity. Network slicing will allow networks to be built with maximum flexibility in mind. For carriers the big win is that they will be able to slice their network to differentiate one service from another based the service requirements of their clients. For the client, it would experience its network slice as if it were a physically separate network with defined bandwidth, and latency. Such a network would also provide increased security by isolating its users from others on the overall 5G network. Key Technologies Several new technologies have emerged including the core components of 5G networks; millimetre waves, small cells, Massive MIMO, beamforming and full duplex. Likewise current technologies like macrocells are set to further evolve. 7 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CHARACTERISTICS OF 5G
Characteristics of 5G Millimetre waves Most devices today use frequencies below 6 GHz. But with the explosion of new devices and connections on the networks, this creates problems for users such as more dropped connections and slower speeds as the network reaches its capacity. The solution is to find a way to release more spectrum. To this end the goal is to use shorter millimetre waves in an area of spectrum not utilised by mobile devices before — typically in the range between 30 and 300 GHz. Small cells But, of course, this comes with its own problems. For instance, millimetre waves don’t travel well through buildings, or foliage for that matter, and they tend not to cope well with bad weather. Also, today’s large high power towers broadcast over long distances but as millimetre waves are more effected by obstacles an alternative is needed. Small cells can mitigate some of these problems. They can be located much closer to where communication is required, avoiding most if not all obstacles. However each small cell site requires permissions from landowners and/or local authorities, power and a backhaul link. The administrative and logistical hurdles for each site may be almost as great as for a macro cell. This is a significant issue for operators who will need to act early to secure the real estate that lets them provide the highest quality networks. Massive MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) Radio signals never travel over only one route between transmitter and receiver: they are reflected off obstacles, so the receiver typically sees multiple signals arriving at slightly different times and at considerably lower strength than the direct signal. In traditional radio systems these secondary signals cause interference and limit performance. Today, highly sophisticated algorithms are able to use multiple receive antennas to decode multiple signals from multiple transmitting antennas and increase the overall throughput. Beamforming Beamforming algorithms can also plot the best transmission route to each user, and send individual data packets in many different directions, bouncing them off buildings and other objects in a precisely coordinated pattern. Antenna size is a function of frequency so with today’s cellular networks the size of the antenna limits the number that can be used. With the very small antennas that the new 26GHz frequencies use, 8 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CHARACTERISTICS OF 5G
Characteristics of 5G communication using up to 128 transmit and 128 receive antennas has already been demonstrated. At these very high frequencies a different kind of beamforming can also be used. Radio antennas can be omnidirectional or produce a tightly focused beam. Beamforming antennas are able to produce multiple highly focused and agile beams that focus on individual devices, even when these are motion. This enables the available spectrum in any given location to deliver high bandwidth to more users than would otherwise be possible. Full duplex Radio systems do not transmit and receive simultaneously on the same frequency — full duplex communication. The high power of the transmitted signal would swamp the much weaker received signal. Overcoming this interference presents considerable challenges. However the prospect is extremely attractive as full duplex communication could significantly increase network capacity. To this end the 5G standard incorporates specification for full duplex, but full duplex will not be supported in initial deployments. Role of macro towers The emergence of small cells inevitably leads to a discussion on the role of macro towers. In the past each new generation of broadband has typically increased the demand and the functionality of towers. It seems that is likely again. At an investment conference in the US last year, run by Wells Fargo, the prevailing view was that macro towers would function as core infrastructure in 5G. In a research note after the conference, Jennifer Fritzsche focused on predictions that, “There will be thousands of mini data centres at the base of the towers as more of this fibre from C-RAN (Cloud RAN) is centralised in one location and data moves closer to the edge.” 9 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CHARACTERISTICS OF 5G
SOME LESSONS ON SMALL CELL ROLLOUTS As Australia’s telcos ponder the challenges they may US carriers also face jurisdictional hurdles that should encounter when contemplating small cell rollouts be expected in Australia. it is instructive to consider examples from the US market where, with four key carriers all competing The willingness to provide access varies wildly from aggressively, and no one carrier with the same kind jurisdiction to jurisdiction, Heapy says. But the issue of dominant market share that exists in Australia, the isn’t necessarily the form factor of the equipment. competitive tensions are different. Instead it’s literally getting it approved through the jurisdiction. “Over there you have four carriers all trying to jump over each other to increase their output,” says Will “And then, even if you get that, you have to get access Heapy, Axicom’s Director of Planning and Strategy. to the street furniture such as the light poles to which you have to affix the unit,” he says. “And one way they work to differentiate themselves is to deploy a greater and more dense network.” The law in Australia grants carriers significant rights for access. In the US, the government introduced He says the US carriers have extensively used small a set of laws designed to stop jurisdictions slowing cell solutions to alleviate capacity constraints in their up access. The so-called shop clock rules mean a networks in high density urban areas. jurisdiction only gets a certain amount of time to evaluate applications for a deployment — and that is One of the questions that is consistently asked the same for both macro and small cell deployment. around 5G rollout in Australia is where carriers will “That has helped speed the process up,” Heapy says find the ROI to justify the investment needed to build infrastructure such as small cell networks. There are also problems with back-hauling the small cells with fibre. “Getting access to premises “It doesn’t seem to me that carriers are awash with to run fibre, and power, to lots of small cells free capital so there will always be the conversation is challenging. In fact, that is the most time internally about how to best invest that capital,” consuming aspect,” he says. Heapy says. The US situation is demand led: “In the US there is certainly the need from the subscriber base for an enhanced level of capacity. I’m not sure that has been as loud in Australia,” he says. “Over there you have four carriers Indeed, the revenue models are quite different. all trying to jump over eachother Unlimited plans are more common in the US, whereas to increase their output . . . in Australia users typically get a base level of data and and one way they work to then buy extra inside the month if they blow their differentiate themselves data caps. is to deploy a greater and For US carriers the goal is customer retention. Small more dense network.” cells will make them more money if they help retain customers. - Will Heapy Axicom’s Director of Planning and Strategy 10 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION?
Current state of play in Australia CURRENT STATE OF PLAY To ensure Australia captures the economies of scale, the country should align both in spectrum and deployment with global standards and approaches. Standards The major determinant of progress towards 5G is the for 5G in addition to the frequencies used today for development of standards by 3GPP. These standards 3G and 4G. are produced in a series of releases. Australia will need to follow international decisions on Release 15 and 16 define 5G. In mid-2016 the industry spectrum for 5G, but must cater for local issues, such agreed to a plan to accelerate the 5G standardisation as existing users. schedule and to split the specification of Release 15 into two phases - Release 15 NSA (non-standalone) as The Australian Communications and Media Authority a priority and Release 15 Full (with standalone) at a (ACMA) is already well advanced in 5G spectrum later date in 2018. Release 15 NSA was completed at planning. In September 2017 it proposed an the end of December 2017. accelerated process for releasing spectrum in the millimetre wavelength band for 5G broadband, and The full Release 15 is the most important for issued a consultation paper on the topic. equipment designers and manufacturers. Site access 3GPP Release 16 is set to be completed in late 2019 and will cover the remaining 5G use cases and As with previous new network generations, site requirements, including support for the massive access will be critical to success. More so, in fact, with INTERNET OF THINGS and ultra-high reliability and the emergence of small cells. This is one of the most low-latency applications. important distinctions between 4G and 5G network infrastructure. Together these two releases cover all the 5G use cases and requirements being specified by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) and the International Telecommunication Union. Spectrum requirements A major regulatory hurdle facing 5G implementation plans is spectrum allocation. In particular frequencies above 26GHz (much higher than used by today’s mobile networks) have been allocated internationally 11 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CURRENT STATE OF PLAY
Current state of play in Australia They will be needed to meet capacity demands and smoother deployment proposition for operators because coverage at the new 26GHz frequencies is looking to roll out 5G.” more limited than the frequencies at 3.5 MHz and below used by 4G. However, he cautions, the Low Impact Facilities Determination (LIFD) has been around for quite a Australia already has well established and understood long time, and while it is a well-used instrument it has regulations mandating access to private property become dated, “Most particularly, in relation to small by network operators for cell sites and other cell technology. The LIFD doesn’t allow for a smooth infrastructure, but the Government acknowledges deployment of small cells, simply because the old that these will need to change for 5G. instrument is quite prescriptive in terms of describing what’s allowed under the determination.” It says it is “progressively working to modernise the regulatory architecture to ensure that the regulatory As to the timing, announcements earlier this year by and policy settings flexibly respond to the current and Australia’s biggest carriers suggest the shift to 5G is future needs of the communications sector.” accelerating and that the time scale for initial delivery looks more like the end of this decade than the start There is more work to do, according to market of the next. participants. Australian Mobile Telecommunications Association (AMTA) CEO, Chris Althaus, says, “There Earlier this year, Optus revealed plans to begin the roll has been a series of reforms to the low impact out of 5G technology in Australia by early 2019 with a facilities determination that will basically allow a fixed wireless product in key metro areas. Almost simultaneously, Telstra announced the Announcements earlier this opening of a 5G Innovation Centre on the Gold Coast year by Australia’s biggest where it will test mobile technologies in Australian conditions with a view to supporting the early carriers suggest the shift to 5G commercial deployment of 5G mobile services. is accelerating and that the time scale for initial delivery looks Two years ago, Telstra announced that it would have more like the end of this decade a trial 5G network in operation by the time of the 2018 Commonwealth Games and indeed it has been than the start of the next. active with 5G trials on the Gold Coast. It has hinted at the “deployment of services in 2020”. 12 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CURRENT STATE OF PLAY
Current state of play in Australia still a significant challenge here. “For as much potential as we can identify, as opposed to other generational changes, the step into 5G and increasingly into the industrial internet environment is a new business model.” He says a lot of work is being done, given the capex required to buy the spectrum and densify networks, to assess just how the business model stacks up. Asked to nominate potential use cases, Heapy, Vodafone Australia has a stated goal to have 5G Axicom’s Director of Planning and Strategy, says one available in 2020. option wireless carriers are considering is whether they can provide an effective broadband solution into These dates could change to sooner rather than later. homes that already happen to be wired. Over the last few months, dates for the expected introduction of 5G services have come progressively “It’s certainly what I’ve seen the carriers use to nearer. underwrite business plans for this evolution as well. Currently, if they don’t have fibre within a particular In the US, in the wake of the finalisation of Release suburb it’s very difficult for them to underwrite a 15, AT&T announced plans to provide 5G in late 2018, business plan to rip the street up and connect their saying: “With these specifications now available, fibre broadband solution to that new suburban area,” hardware, chipset and device manufacturers can start he says. development. This allows us to provide mobile 5G services sooner. We’re confident this latest standards “But it’s far less expensive if they are able to get milestone will allow us to bring 5G to market faster similar performance for their prospective customers without compromising its long-term vision.” through the deployment of 5G. It’s a unit on a piece of street furniture and they can potentially wirelessly Telstra with network supplier, Ericsson, has been a backhaul to a macro-site where they have the consistent market first mover in cellular technology electronics to be able to provide that solution as well. (The two were the first to test services using the new As such, I think home broadband solutions through 26GHz spectrum). 5G and then the emerging new industries resulting from self-drive cars and machine-to-machine-related innovation are going to accelerate 5G.” Return on investment Given these are early days, and we are still a couple of years from the first real 5G rollout, it is not surprising “For as much potential as we that many in the industry are struggling to determine where they will generate a return on investment. can identify, as opposed to other generational changes, the step For the time being the push seems to be more vendor into 5G and increasingly into the driven than demand driven. industrial internet environment is a According to AMTA’s CEO Chris Althaus, “The vendors new business model.” are putting forward cases around all manner of - Chris Althaus applications and services. But I’d have to say there is CEO, AMTA 13 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CURRENT STATE OF PLAY
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS Much of the early running describing the value of 5G networks as their primary competitors—or are the is coming from the supply side - vendors who provide real competitors for value and customer ownership the physical equipment for the network infrastructure the FANGs (that is, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and and have already invested in their own analysis of the Google) and other OTT players?” opportunity. For now, at least, carriers and operators themselves are still struggling to justify the huge In the paper, the McKinsey consultants claim the new investment in spectrum and infrastructure required. technologies that fall under the umbrella of 5G offer the chance to unlock tremendous economic growth. In competitive markets it might simply be the They will do this “… by enabling, for example, smart cost of doing business. If a smart phone customer cities, smart grids, autonomous vehicles, advanced can download series 8 of Game of Thrones on a robotics, and other use cases that utilise massive competitor’s network in seconds while it takes numbers of connected devices and require extremely hours do so on yours, then you will have a hard time high speeds and low latency.” maintaining customer loyalty. Of course, operators will have to continue investing in But the real payoff from 5G is likely to come from network, spectrum, and ever-increasing population- innovators developing new services and apps to use coverage targets to realise this potential. “Policy- all that extra capacity and capability. makers need to understand that unless operators can achieve greater returns on capital, this future might McKinsey and Co, in a paper, Hello, mobile operators? be delayed. And it’s equally important for consumers This is your age of disruption calling, argue operators to understand what they are paying for on a monthly have to get smart about recapturing the value created basis—nearly constant access to data.” by their infrastructure. The authors claim it is something operators haven’t been able to do in the last decade and point out much of the value created in that time has been realised by tech disruptors such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Netflix. “Operators, therefore, will need to address the fundamental strategic question of where and how they want to compete going forward. Should operators continue to see other telcos and cable “Operators, therefore, will need to address the fundamental strategic question of where and how they want to compete going forward. Should operators continue to see other telcos and cable networks as their primary competitors—or are the real competitors for value and customer ownership the FANGs (that is, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) and other OTT players?” - McKinsey and Co. 14 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION?
Current state of play in Australia In a whitepaper, Translating 5G use cases into viable business cases, Nokia has provided detailed analysis of six business cases, including calculations that purport to show operator EBITDA, capex and opex. These include 5G-to-the-home, 5G for in- vehicle infotainment, 5G for hot spots, 5G for truck platooning, 5G for connected healthcare, 5G for Industry 4.0. In its paper, the company notes, “There is little doubt the extremely high performance of 5G has the potential to help transform the ways businesses Business models for 5G operate and how people live and work. It is also clear early adopter communication service providers (CSPs) This could be the biggest challenge facing 5G. that begin to plan today for the 5G future and make Driverless cars feature a lot in discussions, as do smart decisions about how they will deploy and use the cities and the Internet of Things. But ROI remains technology will gain an important lead in what are opaque. likely to be intensely competitive and rapidly moving markets.“ Operators currently have an unclear business model on which to build their 5G network investment plans The authors caution that, at this early stage, with no according to Gavin Patterson, BT Group CEO. commercial 5G deployments in play, many companies lack the business information they need to recognise The dominant business model in today’s mobile the trends, identify the opportunities and understand networks is the simple sale of network services what 5G can do for their brand. — voice and data. This will neither sustain the investments required for 5G nor will it fully exploit the “It must be very clear how additional revenues can be potential of the technology. secured with 5G, what investments will be required and at what point a business case will break even. For example, network operators will be able to charge Investments in 5G will be needed and CSPs cannot a premium for providing dedicated network slices, afford to gamble.” and equipment manufacturer Ericsson has provided a detailed study of the possibilities. Ericsson claims, “Operators can benefit from an additional 36 per cent revenue from 5G-enabled industry digitalisation market opportunities by 2026.” It says, by that time, there will be an anticipated $US619 billion revenue opportunity for telecom operators addressing industry digitalisation with 5G technology. The largest opportunity for operator- addressable 5G-related revenues will be the manufacturing and energy and utilities sectors. Ericsson has identified numerous challenges due to industry trends across 10 major industry sectors it says could be addressed by digitalisation powered by 5G. 15 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CURRENT STATE OF PLAY
SMART CITIES Urban planners and city administrators are looking to 5G to provide a platform on which to build applications that enhance the daily lives of their citizens and bring greater efficiency to the delivery of municipal services. The smart city phenomenon involves an array of technologies of which 5G is only one. However, it clearly offers huge potential gains, especially in areas such as autonomous driving, predictive maintenance using analytics and data created by IoT devices, and better resource utilisation from the deployment of smart poles which can have multiple uses and provide services for multiple suppliers. Already there are significant projects underway around the world. Smart cities 5G trials: The Port of Hamburg is working with Deutsche Telekom and Nokia to test 5G applications. The use cases 1 to be tested on the 8000ha site include traffic lights management, virtual reality applications as well as data processing from mobile sensors. The authority also wants to test network slicing as part of the trial. 2 Closer to home, Telstra’s 5G Innovation Centre on the Gold Coast is central to a $60 million investment the telco has made to upgrade infrastructure to support growing demand and major events in the area. This is part of $5 billion which Telstra claims it is investing over the three years to June 30, 2019, to upgrade and expand its mobile network, acquire spectrum and lay the foundations for 5G. Chief Operations Officer, Robyn Denholm, says the carrier established the Gold Coast 5G Innovation Centre to ensure Australia is among the first countries in the world to gain access to 5G. The Technological Cities Project: Telefonica, in partnership with Ericsson and Nokia, has begun 5G 3 trials in the Spanish cities of Segovia and Talavera de la Reina. It will test services, business models, and technologies over a three-year period including VR, AR and connected car apps, automation and digitisation of industrial processes, fixed radio access in rural areas, health, and drone control. Huawei and Canadian carrier, Telus, are running a 5G trial in Vancouver. The trial will use the global 4 3GPP 5G standards as well as 28GHz millimetre-wave (mmWave) spectrum with 800MHz of bandwidth, according to a report by ZDNet. The trial will allow the companies to understand the real world impact of 5G technologies in the home environment. Smart cities planners should expect to operate in a world with some confusion and even obfuscation by market participants in the medium term. National Narrowband Network Communications CEO, Rob Zagarella, says, “There is confusion now and there will be a lot more in the future around the technologies, standards 16 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION?
and protocols for 5G, including their status and how use case for 5G, as opposed to fixed broadband and they’re being adopted around the world.” other technologies. Consultation is going to be really important.” “We know the devil is in the details with a lot of these things. But, then again, if the cities focus on having He says all levels of Government need to be involved the right platforms in place and on having the right to create a regulatory framework allowing for user experiences and services in place, it should smart city developments, but in a way that ensures be irrelevant what type of access communication everybody benefits. technology you use in the field to provide that information.” “All of the indications are 5G will be an expensive rollout. We don’t want to be focusing simply on Zaggarella, however, points to another potential 5G if there are other technologies that can suit the smart cities benefit — the ability to leverage other purpose, that won’t be as expensive to rollout and infrastructure such as smart light poles to support won’t be as expensive for the users.” communications in smart cities. “We’re starting to see that. Once you’ve got the different form factors available, then I think all of these types of assets should be leveraged. We’ve done a number of deployments with light poles, we’ve done deployments on electricity poles, and on small rooftops” he said. “It’s a matter of looking at those assets strategically from a network coverage or a planning perspective to work out how to get the most optimised solutions. With any of these technologies, regardless of the underlying protocols, it’s high risk. Having good, solid planning capability, especially around scaling out or rolling out networks, is very important.” Australian Smart Communities Association CEO, Laurie Patton, says, “The real issue is what is the “It’s a matter of looking at those assets strategically from a network coverage or a planning perspective to work out how to get the most optimised solutions. With any of these technologies, regardless of the underlying protocols, it’s high risk. Having good, solid planning capability, especially around scaling out or rolling out networks, is very important.” - Rob Zagarella CEO, National Narrowband Network Communications 17 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION?
What does it mean for Australian Industry WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY? The Optus announcement that it will have 5G services in 2019, and Telstra’s decision to build a 5G Innovation Centre on the Gold Coast have brought the accelerating shift to 5G in Australia into sharp relief. The federal government has also increased its tempo. ‘The 5G Working Group’ met for the first time in February. The initial membership includes The Department of Communications and the Arts (DOCA), the Departments of Agriculture and Water Resources, Industry, Innovation and Science, Infrastructure and Regional Development, and the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Industry members include Telstra, Optus, Vodafone, Nokia, Huawei, Ericsson and Samsung, and associations such as the Australian Mobile Telecommunications Association, the Communications Alliance and the Internet of Things Alliance Australia. According to reports in Communications Day at the time, “two standout action points arising from the meeting will be more highly targeted collaboration between select groups of industry representatives and government departments outside the comms portfolio, plus the likely creation of smaller subgroups with specific expertise geared to tackling particular issues.” The report also suggested the feedback the The meeting of the working group followed the government received was that it will need to be October 2017 release of a briefing document, precise and disciplined in its approach to 5G. There 5G—Enabling the future economy, in which were other concerns about a loss of focus on core the government said it would support the early comms policy issues like spectrum and network deployment of 5G in Australia by: deployment regulation. • Making spectrum available in a timely manner. • Actively engaging in international spectrum harmonisation activities. • Streamlining arrangements to allow mobile carriers to deploy infrastructure more quickly. • Reviewing existing telecommunications regulatory arrangements to ensure they are fit- for-purpose. 18 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY?
What does it mean for Australian Industry He did however say that some jurisdictions are inclined to be more restrictive, giving the example of buffer zones around schools and childcare facilities. “States have different views as to the need for a buffer zone and the size of it, but it’s hardly problematic. To the extent that states enforce these things is also variable. There have been many instances where obviously we identify a situation where if you were to observe the letter of a buffer zone policy, you would find it incredibly difficult to deploy anything.” Axicom CEO, Sean O’Halloran, says it is not just about deployment. Cost remains an issue, along with Other industry initiatives the ability of carriers to get access to power and to backhaul fibre. The Australian Mobile Telecommunications Association (AMTA) has set up the new 5G Group One issue that is unique to Australia is the impact of to focus on policy, regulatory and technology issues 5G on the NBN. related to the evolution of the next generation of mobile technology, 5G. According to Will Heapy, Axicom’s Director of Planning and Strategy, “With 5G, it will come down to pricing Access and economics as to how deep they can penetrate the market with ease but I think it’s inevitable there will be some erosion of the NBN business through With four carriers — Telstra, Optus, Vodafone and 5G.” TPG — all looking to deploy networks there remain concerns about how smoothly this will go, despite How long will that take? well understood regulations designed to address that issue. “There’s a business plan for them both to co-exist, in my view, but 5G will allow different plays, such as Deloitte, in a joint report with AMTA, identified being able to provide a broadband offering without differences between state and federal regulations and having to connect fibre or use NBN.” between different states covering the implementation of network infrastructure in general and of the need Other industry commentators put forward the view for more harmonisation between jurisdictions. that 5G will be the replacement technology for the NBN and there is a general recognition that 5G will According to AMTA’s CEO Chris Althaus, “All of raise the competitive tension in the market. the jurisdictions have put in place their own telecommunications codes to varying degrees. We simply want to get as much common ground as possible.” It is not just about deployment. Cost remains an issue, along with “And to the extent that the low impact facilities and the ability of carriers to get access to our deployment code is fundamentally designed to power and to backhaul fibre. provide a smooth path through state and federal planning laws that has been its success.” - Sean O’Halloran CEO, Axicom 19 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY?
Conclusion CONCLUSION Increasingly 5G looks like a sooner-rather-than-later proposition in Australia. Government, regulators, and market participants have been working together for some time to thrash out issues such a spectrum allocation and harmonisation, site access, and ongoing regulatory reform. This collaboration is essential for success as 5G represents much more than a step change in network speed. Characteristics Yes, 5G is characterised by very significant improvements to speed. However, that is just one critical benefit. For instance, 1 millisecond latency along with a huge increase in the number of connected devices per unit area are essential for 5G to provide the bedrock to the emerging Internet of Things, which is one of the core use cases. To succeed however, new technologies such as millimetre waves, small cells, Massive MIMO and beamforming will need to be deployed, each throwing out a number of significant potential technical and regularity challenges. State of play Australia is a technology taker not a standard setter. To leverage the benefits from economies of scale, we not only have to get our own spectrum and other regularity settings in order, we need to align them broadly with the global practices. There are lessons to be learned for local players from the experience in markets like the US, but there are also some unique challenges. The market opportunity in Australia is of significantly less scale than in the US or Europe for instance, while market structure and capital funding options are also different. 20 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CONCLUSION
Conclusion Where next for Australian industry? Spectrum requirements and regulatory issues around matters such as site access are already the subject for ongoing discussions within the Federal Government’s 5G Work Group and across an ecosystem that involves the lawmakers and regulators, industry associations, vendors and ultimately the consumers of 5G. Happily those conversations are generally keeping pace with the reality of the market which looks set for initial 5G roll outs as early as 2019. However, questions remain over ROI, especially for operators who will need to sink the huge costs in building the core infrastructure. For the time being, the strongest arguments for the roll out of 5G are being made by the equipment manufacturers, for whom the return is more immediate and more obvious. 5G is a more significant change than network generations in the past and the deployment of new technologies and approaches such as small cells are already showing up the limitations of current regulatory approaches. But perhaps the biggest issue for operators remains justifying the investment in the spectrum and infrastructure. To an extent this is a matter of competitive necessity. In the long term, however, applications in fields such as the IoT, smart cities and autonomous driving are expected to prove lucrative for smart innovative businesses. 21 5G: HOW READY IS AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT GENERATION? CONCLUSION
Supporting Your Wireless World. Axicom is Australia’s leading independent owner and operator of shared wireless infrastructure. Our core business is owning, operating and leasing Australia-wide tower and rooftop sites for wireless communication. We have sites throughout Australia, including all major metropolitan cities, regional and rural areas and remote locations. We aim to provide the highest level of customer service to our customers who include major wireless carriers such as Optus, Vodafone, Telstra and NBN, Emergency services, various State and Federal government agencies, and wireless broadband data service providers. We encourage wireless operators to co-locate on our existing sites, helping to minimise the environmental impact of network expansion while offering Australia-wide coverage, faster deployment and lower total costs of ownership compared with building replicated sites. Axicom’s expert team can also provide you with the full suite of site development services from site identification and acquisition through to construction and installation. Axicom looks forward to playing a pivotal role in the rollout of 5G in Australia – give our team a call today to discuss how we could help you with your 5G strategy. If you enjoyed this whitepaper, please share it. 1800 309 578 salesaus@axicom.com.au www.axicom.com.au PREPARING FOR 5G 22 WHAT IS NEEDED AND WHERE IS THE ROI?
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