2022 college football betting guide - vsin experts preview your local teams: tennessee vanderbilt middle tennessee state
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2022 college football betting guide vsin experts preview your local teams: • tennessee • vanderbilt • middle tennessee state
Big Storylines, Names to Know and Top 10 Games By Adam Kramer
3.
Years from now, when there are only two conferences and high school
juniors are signing $10 million dollar deals, college football will look very
different.
Is 2022 as top-heavy as it seems?
The sport you know and love is changing quickly. The evolution came without Despite the violent conference movement, transfer portal and coaching
much warning, through the transfer portal and NIL. Before that, the College carousel, the number of true national championship contenders feels much
Football Playoff and a huge infusion of television money sent us on this path. smaller than it has in some time.
Regardless of the conference size or the sponsorship amounts, however, Yes, CFB is entering a volatile phase.
Saturdays are still sacred. Waking up to a full Saturday slate is still one of
the greatest moments of the year. No, that isn’t altering expectations in 2022.
You will still chase on Hawaii. You will still embrace kickers being There is Alabama (+180), Ohio State (+320), Georgia (+380) and Clemson
wildly inaccurate, home underdogs thriving off the environment and the (+1000).
imperfections that make college football great.
After that, the field -- and odds -- opens wide up.
Yes, the sport is changing. And some of the changes, if we’re being honest,
If you like a team like Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Michigan or Texas, you will
we could do without.
be able to get them at 40-1 or higher. For playoff contenders -- which they
all are if things go well -- this feels like a decent bargain.
But make no mistake about where this is all heading: to the couch, to the
parking lot soaked in warm domestic beer, to the sportsbook or your But as we saw with Cincinnati during the College Football Playoff last
favorite betting app. It’s heading back to the places you always consume season, making the final four isn’t enough. You must make the playoff, which
college football, because these are the proper ways to consume it. is difficult, and then you must slay whatever dragon stands in your way.
Change all you want, college football -- we’ll come along for the ride. Given the talent levels of the favorites mentioned above, it won’t be easy.
As we’ve seen before, however, college football tends to do weird, college
football-y things.
The Five Biggest Storylines Entering the Season There’s plenty of value to be had if you can pick the right teams squarely in
the middle of the pack.
1.
Welcome back, elite quarterbacks
4.
This is not a knock on the 2021 crop of QBs; that narrative has been
Behold the glorious transfer portal
exhausted. With only one quarterback selected in the top 73 picks,
Recruiting and the NFL draft are no longer the only avenues you need to be
however, it’s clear that NFL teams were unimpressed by last year’s class.
aware of during the dormant months. These days, the transfer portal might
That is not the case heading into 2022.
be the most potent resource of them all.
Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud (+250 to win the Heisman Trophy) and Alabama’s In terms of meaningful additions this offseason, a few teams stand out.
Bryce Young (+350) are poised to be the face of the sport and, fittingly, are
the favorites to win the Heisman. Alabama loaded up on both offense and defense, adding true difference-
makers to a team already overflowing with talent.
But there is also a ton of depth at the position. Caleb Williams (+800), just a
true sophomore, should erupt at USC. (More on the Trojans in a moment.) USC, Miami and LSU all added meaningful players, as did Texas and
Oklahoma. Even Nebraska, which found a way to lose every close game
Dillion Gabriel (30-1) might be the most underappreciated addition of the it played last year, did an overhaul in the portal by acquiring more than a
offseason for Oklahoma. Tyler Van Dyke (35-1) looked fabulous at the end dozen players.
of last year, and he could be in for a massive year for Miami.
This isn’t just a theme for 2022; it’s a theme from this point forward. Become
The list is deep. Quinn Ewers (35-1), Anthony Richardson (40-1) and many one with the portal.
others are legitimate breakout candidates. The position is loaded, and more
5.
are likely to join the party.
2.
Can the champs deliver an encore?
Lincoln Riley’s maiden California voyage
The move to the Big Ten will steal some shine, but Riley’s Pac-12 stay, no
matter how short it might be, is one of the most intriguing components of the
The Georgia defense was the definition of elite last fall. The offense, while 2022 season.
secondary to the other side of the ball, was loaded with talent. After
watching 15 players from its national championship team find a home in the Although they have won 10 games just twice in the past eight years, the
NFL draft, however, it’s reasonable to question what happens next. Trojans are 30-1 to win the national title, behind only five other teams.
The Bulldogs are still +380 to win the title, behind only Alabama and Ohio Those odds, frankly, feel excessive.
State. The defense is still ripe with talent, headlined by edge rusher Nolan
Smith. That said, they play in the right conference, have the right quarterback,
are loaded at skill positions and should be a treat to watch on offense. The
I’m more curious to see what happens at quarterback. Stetson Bennett likely defense is another story, hence the mild pessimism.
has the upper hand after winning the national championship in somewhat
emphatic fashion, although it’s not a given. Brock Vandagriff, a former five- Will we be able to have reasonable discord about USC this season?
star recruit, could push him (as could true freshman Gunner Stockton).
Given the hype and expectations, it seems unlikely. Although given
The talent is there, but so are the questions. Oh, and Alabama is loaded. the massive uptick in recruitment poised for this year and beyond, this
(Shocking.) conversation will likely continue.
The 10 Games You Need to See This Year Five (non-superstar) Names to Know in 2022
Every college football game should be consumed. That is an important 1. Will Levis (Kentucky, QB)
disclaimer. We do this every year. We take a quarterback with an NFL build, place
him in and around the top 10 of every way-too-early NFL mock draft and
Ranking the best games of the year is always difficult, largely because then let the madness unfold. Levis has become a hugely popular name in
meaningful football games don’t fully take shape until the middle of the NFL circles, and he has the build and gifts to warrant some of the buzz. But
year. With that out of the way, here my initial rankings of the top 10 games can he live up to it? If you’re a believer, you can get him at 50-1 to win the
of 2022. Heisman.
It’s worth noting that meaningful out-of-conference games, especially those
played on a college campus, are always given more weight in this exercise.
1. Alabama (-16.5) vs. Texas A&M (Oct. 8)
Jimbo Fisher vs. Nick Saban. Before realignment grabbed the steering
wheel, this was the primary plot line. Throw in A&M’s win over Alabama
last year that the Aggies parlayed into a historic recruiting class, along with
the offseason war of words and we have ourselves a delightful scenario. Will Levis
Tuscaloosa will be electric.
2. Alabama (-14.5) at Texas (Sept. 10)
Yes, we’re going double ‘Bama off the top. A rematch of the 2010 BCS
National Championship Game will headline Week 2. Oh, and the football
game will be played in Austin at 11 a.m. local time, where it will likely be
105 degrees.
3. Ohio State (-14.5) vs. Notre Dame (Sept. 3)
Speaking of unbelievable football environments, enter Columbus, Ohio. The
Buckeyes’ loaded offense will welcome Notre Dame to town to begin the
season, and the spread is north of two touchdowns. Marcus Freeman’s first
regular season game as Notre Dame’s coach is a tall task.
4. Ohio State (-13.5) vs. Michigan (Nov. 26)
The first rivalry staple is always must-see TV. After Michigan finally
conquered the Buckeyes, however, Ohio State is likely thinking of revenge.
Homefield will certainly be huge for Ohio State, as it normally is in this
series. I cannot get enough of this football game.
5. Georgia (-17) vs. Oregon (Sept. 3)
The spread, like many meaningful Week 1 lines, is robust. Still, watching
Oregon and Georgia tussle is certainly something we welcome. Beyond
seeing a remade Georgia roster, former Bulldogs DC Dan Lanning draws his
old team in his very first game. I’m in.
6. Arkansas (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati (Sept. 3)
From playoff participant to near-touchdown underdog, Cincinnati’s season 2. Cade Klubnik (Clemson, QB)
should be fascinating. It begins on the road against a quality opponent with If you follow recruiting, you know this name well. Clemson’s five-star true
a quality coach powered by a really intriguing QB. I have had this game freshman QB enrolled early, and he is likely to be a fascinating piece to
circled since December. the Tigers’ puzzle. The moment D.J. Uiagalelei struggles at all next fall, the
chants for Klubnik will begin. Although he hasn’t played a down yet, he’s
7. Utah (-3.5) vs. USC (Oct. 15) still 60-1 to win the Heisman. Stay tuned.
For now, these two teams will power the Pac-12. Until that changes, and it
will, this is likely to be one of the more intriguing games played all season. 3. Devon Achane (Texas A&M, RB)
Utah has a massive home field advantage, and USC will likely need to When the ball is in his hands, there might not be a more exciting player
conquer the Utes if it plans to match the preseason hype. in all of college football -- there also might not be a faster player. Achane
averaged seven yards per carry and scored nine touchdowns in a reserve
8. Utah (-2) at Florida (Sept. 3) role last year. With Isaiah Spiller gone, however, Achane is likely to get a
Speaking of Utah, here is another big one for them. It seems strange much bigger workload for a team looking for a breakthrough. That is good
seeming Florida as an underdog at home, although it feels, well, right. Bill news for all of us.
Napier was a quality hire, although the roster certainly needs some more.
Florida QB Anthony Richardson is a fascinating talent, and he is poised to 4. Isaiah Neyor (Texas, WR)
have a say on this outcome. Amid the transfer madness, Texas landed a huge commitment in Neyor. The
6-foot-3 wideout left Wyoming for Austin. Last year, he caught 44 passes,
9. Oklahoma (-3) vs. Texas (Oct. 8) 12 touchdowns and averaged nearly 20 yards per catch. Playing alongside
A new coach, two new QBs and two rivals planning exits to the SEC. Yes, Xavier Worthy in an offensive poised to put up points, Neyor could be in
the Red River Rivalry delivers. Last year, Texas produced an epic meltdown line for a monster season.
that led to a season-long meltdown. This year, Brent Venables will get his first
taste of this home-grown hate as head coach. 5. Jim Knowles (Ohio State, DC)
Of the coordinator hires made this past offseason, none felt more impactful
10. Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. Miami (Sept. 17) than the addition of Knowles at Ohio State. The former Oklahoma State
Call it the NIL Bowl, because both of these teams have it rolling on the defensive coordinator was one of the primary reasons behind the Pokes’
recruiting front thanks to massive booster buy-in. Texas A&M feels like it has playoff push in 2021. He will now be expected to have a similar, immediate
the more talented roster, although Miami is poised to surge after closing out impact in Columbus. The offense is loaded. If the defense is anything close to
last year strong. “good,” Ohio State will be an incredibly tough team to beat.
How to Make Your Own
Power Ratings: A Primer
By Adam Burke
The idea of setting your own game lines probably
seems daunting. Oddsmakers have mountains of
Position by Position the starters. I also look at the backups, which is
why a magazine such as Phil Steele’s is really
information and public betting data to work with. Quarterbacks valuable for this exercise. Injuries are prevalent
However, you can put together something raw A QB such as Bryce Young or CJ Stroud is in college football and the difference between a
and fairly basic that at least gives you a good going to get the highest rating possible at 15. four-year senior starter and a true freshman can
idea of where a line should be. Somebody just a step below that, such as Will be big. Once again, the best groups get a 10
Rogers at Mississippi State or Brennan Armstrong and the worst get a 4 or 4.5.
Power ratings are an inexact science. They are at Virginia, might get a 14 or 14.5. Quarterbacks
designed to be a guide to give you a frame for teams such as UMass, Akron or UConn are Coaching/special Teams
of reference. They are subjective in nature, likely to be in the 5-6 range. You also have to This is loosely 5 points for special teams and 10 for
which means nobody’s power ratings are grade these on a curve by conference, so if CJ coaching, but the coaching part means more than
100% accurate. But the ability to look at a Stroud is a 15 at Ohio State, Purdue’s Aidan just the head coach. Coordinators are taken heavily
game and compare your spread to the spread O’Connell would be a 13 or 13.5. Connor into account, including new coordinators who are
in the market can be a tremendously valuable Bazelak at Indiana might be an 8 or a 9. changing schemes. Recruiting is also a small part
resource. of the evaluation process, since some coaches can
Running Backs get a lot of talent but won’t get as much out of it as
I know people who have all kinds of For a 10, think Bijan Robinson at Texas or the others. This scale goes from 7 to 15 for me.
spreadsheets and numerous sets of power stable of backs at Georgia. If a team passes
ratings. I am not one of those people. But I can a lot, you may not want to grade the RBs that
point you in the right direction to design an
introductory set of power ratings you can use to
highly. On the other hand, a triple-option offense The SEC as an Example
might get a 9 or 9.5 at the RB position while
try and get ahead of the market. taking away points from WRs. To show you an example of one conference, here
are my SEC Power Ratings:
The function of a power rating is to be able to Wide Receivers
compare two teams and set a spread. Home- Wide receivers mean more at Western Kentucky Alabama: 98.5
field advantage is included and I have a than they do at UAB. There are also some WR Georgia: 95.5
separate process for that. My process is neither corps that have future NFL players and plenty Texas A&M: 86
complex nor time-consuming, and the nice thing of size, while others are used more for blocking Tennessee: 82.5
is we can refer to the game lines that are out for purposes or suffered big losses in the offseason. Arkansas: 81
Week 0, Week 1 and the Games of the Year to The best WR group in a conference might be a 9 Ole Miss: 81
or 10, so each group after that would go down a Mississippi State: 80
compare.
bit on the scale. Kentucky: 79.5
Florida: 79
Offensive Line Auburn: 78
Setting It Up Offensive lines on their own account for 15% of LSU: 78
my power rating and that may not be enough. South Carolina: 74
Here’s how to set up a set of positional power The ability to protect the quarterback impacts Missouri: 69
ratings: all of the above position groups and impacts the Vanderbilt: 55
defense as well. I’ve toyed with extending this
Talent disparities are bigger in college football out to 20 and borrowing from another area, but Based on my “raw power rating,” Alabama
than in most sports. Analyzing roster turnover the best offensive lines in the country are a 15 would be -3 on a neutral field against Georgia.
and transfers — from the portal and junior and the worst are in the 5-6 range. Texas A&M would be -5 against Arkansas. Ole
colleges — all go into the process. Miss would be -12 against Missouri.
Defensive Line
Typically, my scale for power ratings ranges from Defensive lines are important as well and I tend to Then I factor in home-field advantage and come
40 to 100, with teams such as Alabama and include edge rushers in this group. Does a team stop up with my own game line. If the market line is
Ohio State near the century mark and teams the run? Does a team get after the quarterback? off a few points from my line, I’ll take that spread
such as UMass and New Mexico State at the How do they generate tackles for loss? You early in the week and expect it to move toward
bottom of the list. also have to consider if there is a new defensive my line.
coordinator and if a team moves from a 3-4 to a 4-3.
To get to a max of 100, I use this scale: The job description of a defensive lineman changes The true skill comes in updating your power
based on the scheme and some teams may be better ratings as the season goes along, which I’ll
QB: 15 equipped for one over the other. outline in a future piece.
RB: 10
WR: 10 Linebackers If you want to try this exercise, try rating one
OL: 15 Linebackers mean so much in football nowadays conference and then compare your lines with
DL: 15 with all of the RPOs and how often tight ends the Game of the Year lines to do some trial and
LB: 10 are used in the passing game. Most college error. If your research has you higher or lower
DB: 10 linebackers end up being tackle machines on a team, that’s fine. There’s nothing wrong
Coaches/special teams: 15 because there are so many different offensive with that. It’s your opinion, but use the existing
schemes. The best groups get a 10, while the lines from sportsbooks as a guide to make sure
The most important position on the field is the worst get a 4. you aren’t too far off.
QB. The battle in the trenches is huge and makes
up 30% of my power rating number. Coaching Defensive Backs I’ll be doing a weekly update on VSiN.com of
is also big and I include special teams as part of Same story here, but defensive backs are often my power ratings, weekly adjustments and game
the job description since special teams are much the ones that force the turnovers. With all of lines to further elaborate on this concept and
harder to analyze. the position groups, it’s not enough to look at process.Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings TEAM RATING TEAM RATING TEAM RATING TEAM RATING ALABAMA 73 LOUISVILLE 51.5 STANFORD 41.5 SOUTHERN MISS 33 OHIO STATE 72.5 UCLA 51.5 ARMY 41 E MICHIGAN 32.5 GEORGIA 69.5 MISSISSIPPI STATE 51 MISSOURI 41 OLD DOMINION 32.5 CLEMSON 64 NORTH CAROLINA 51 W KENTUCKY 41 W MICHIGAN 32.5 MICHIGAN 61 MINNESOTA 50 WASHINGTON STATE 41 COLORADO STATE 32 NOTRE DAME 60 TCU 50 CALIFORNIA 40.5 JAMES MADISON 31.5 UTAH 59.5 UCF 50 ILLINOIS 40.5 LOUISIANA TECH 31.5 TEXAS A&M 58.5 HOUSTON 49.5 LA LAFAYETTE 40.5 NEVADA 31.5 OKLAHOMA 58 PURDUE 49.5 LIBERTY 40.5 S ALABAMA 31 PITTSBURGH 57.5 IOWA STATE 49 NORTHWESTERN 40.5 BUFFALO 30.5 MIAMI FL 57 KANSAS STATE 49 SAN DIEGO STATE 40.5 GA SOUTHERN 30.5 OREGON 57 ARIZONA STATE 48 COASTAL CAROLINA 40 VANDERBILT 30.5 NC STATEATE 56.5 WASHINGTON 47.5 RUTGERS 40 DUKE 30 PENN STATE 56.5 MARYLAND 47 GEORGIA TECH 39.5 CHARLOTTE 29.5 TEXAS 56.5 BOISE STATE 46.5 INDIANA 39.5 TEXAS STATE UNIV 29.5 MICHIGAN STATE 56 SMU 46 GEORGIA STATE 39 UNLV 29 WISCONSIN 56 SOUTH CAROLINA 46 ARIZONA 38.5 UTEP 29 ARKANSAS 55 VIRGINIA 46 TROY 38 ARKANSAS STATE 28.5 OLE MISS 55 TEXAS TECH 45.5 TX-SAN ANTONIO 38 KENT STATE 28.5 CINCINNATI 54.5 VIRGINIA TECH 45.5 COLORADO 37.5 HAWAII 28 LSU 54.5 APPALACHIAN STATE 45 MIAMI OHIO 37 OHIO U 26.5 OKLAHOMA STATE 54.5 FRESNO STATE 45 UTAH STATE 37 BALL STATE 26 TENNESSEE 54.5 OREGON STATE 45 C MICHIGAN 36.5 BOWLING GREEN 25.5 AUBURN 54 AIR FORCE 44 KANSAS 35.5 TEMPLE 25 KENTUCKY 54 BOSTON COLLEGE 44 N ILLINOIS 35.5 RICE 24.5 BYU 53.5 SYRACUSE 43.5 TULSA 35.5 AKRON 23 IOWA 53.5 WEST VIRGINIA 43.5 SOUTH FLORIDA 35 LA MONROE 23 NEBRASKA 53 MARSHALL 43 SAN JOSE STATE 34.5 NEW MEXICO 20 FLORIDA STATE 52.5 TOLEDO 43 MIDDLE TENN STATE 34 CONNECTICUT 19.5 USC 52.5 MEMPHIS 42.5 NAVY 34 MASSACHUSETTS 19.5 BAYLOR 52 TULANE 42.5 FLA ATLANTIC 33.5 FLA INTERNATIONAL 18.5 WAKE FOREST 52 UAB 42.5 NORTH TEXAS 33.5 NEW MEXICO STATE 17 FLORIDA 51.5 EAST CAROLINA 42 WYOMING 33.5
TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERS
HEAD COACH: JOSH HEUPEL (2ND)
OFF. COORDINATOR: ALEX GOLESH • DEF. COORDINATOR: TIM BANKS
KNOXVILLE, TN • NEYLAND STADIUM
STEVE MAKINEN’S POWER RATING
54.5 (#20 OF 131)
RETURNING STARTERS
15 OFFENSE: 8, QB • DEFENSE: 7
The Volunteers haven’t won 10 games since 2007 and have only won nine games twice since then.
Last year’s 7-6 showing that ended with a loss to Purdue in the Music City Bowl felt like the start of
2022 SCHEDULE
something, but we’ve thought that with a lot of 1990s powerhouses that haven’t been able to tap into DATE OPPONENT (Est. Line) OppPR
the magic of the past.
9/1 BALL ST (-31) 26
OFFENSE
The optimism for Tennessee football comes from the offense. Under first-year head coach Josh Heupel,
the Vols scored 39.3 points per game and had 6.5 yards per play. It was the first time since 2016 that 9/10 at Pittsburgh (+6) 57.5
the Volunteers averaged over 36 points per game and more than 6 yards per play. Heupel’s fast tempo
and a bevy of big plays generated a lot of excitement.
9/17 AKRON (-34.5) 23
So did Hendon Hooker. The Virginia Tech transfer posted a 31-3 TD-INT ratio while completing 68%
of his passes. Hooker’s play left a lot of people wondering how Joe Milton won the QB competition
before the season, especially because Hooker was also the team’s second-leading rusher for a group 9/24 FLORIDA (-5.5) 51.5
that had 4.9 yards per carry. Leading rusher Jabari Small is also back after rushing for 5.6 yards per
pop.
10/8 at LSU (+3.5) 54.5
Leading receiver Cedric Tillman also returns and will shoulder a bigger load with Velus Jones Jr. now a
member of the Chicago Bears, but USC transfer and former No. 1 WR recruit Bru McCoy transferred
in and should get a good look. Jones was also one of the nation’s best kick returners, so special teams 10/15 ALABAMA (+16.5) 73
may be an area to watch.
DEFENSE 10/22 TENN-MARTIN (-33) 24
This unit remains the big unknown for the Volunteers. The defense was fine, but pretty average across
the board in a lot of areas. Tennessee outscored opponents 190-51 in the first quarter, so going 7-6 is
a pretty big indictment on the defense and its ability to protect leads. Tennessee did not win a game 10/29 KENTUCKY (-3) 54
without scoring at least 38 points and even lost the Music City Bowl despite scoring 45 points.
Star defensive back Alontae Taylor and top pass rusher Theo Jackson are both gone, but the Vols have 11/5 at Georgia (+18.5) 69.5
been able to recruit at a high level under Heupel, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some highly touted
freshmen and sophomores get more of a look. Perhaps the defense jells more in the second year under
defensive coordinator Tim Banks, but allowing 273 passing yards per game won’t fly. 11/12 MISSOURI (-16.5) 41
Tennessee had one of the worst red zone defenses in the nation, as opponents scored on 92% of their
trips inside the 20 and scored a touchdown on 72%, which ranked 119th in the nation. 11/19 at South Carolina (-6.5) 46
OUTLOOK 11/26 at Vanderbilt (-22.5) 30.5
It felt like UCF went backward in some ways under Heupel, especially as the rest of the teams in the
AAC adjusted to the “UCFast” tempo. This conference has some of the best football coaches in the
world, so you have to wonder if teams will be better prepared early in games to avoid digging big
holes.
SCHEDULE FIELD
The Vols also draw Alabama again from the West Division and have to face LSU in Death Valley the
week before hosting the Crimson Tide. Rocky Top’s November schedule also includes three road games STRENGTH RATINGS
2.5 / 0
in four weeks, so injury attrition late in the year could be a huge deal with trips to Georgia, South
Carolina and the rivalry game against Vanderbilt. My number is 8.11, but there is heavy juice on Over
7.5, so this is just a lean. – Adam Burke 45.5
(#34 of 131) (HOME/ROAD)
SEASON WIN SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
TOTAL PLAY ODDS TO WIN ODDS TO WIN
OVER 7.5 50/1 100/1TEAM TRENDS
• TENNESSEE IS 12-3 ATS (L15G) HEAD-TO-HEAD VS. KENTUCKY
• TENNESSEE IS 5-20 ATS (L25G) AT HOME - [VS. OPP] AP TOP 10
• TENNESSEE IS 8-2 OVER (L10G)
2021 RESULTS RECORD: 7-6 2021 STATS & RANKS
DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU CL ATS TOTAL OFFENSE DEFENSE
STAT RANK STAT RANK
9/18 TENNESSEE TECH 56-0 W -38.5 W 53 O
Points Per Game 37.9 7 31.5 97
9/25 at Florida 14-38 L 19 L 65 U
Yards Per Point 12.6 20 14 79
10/2 at Missouri 62-24 W 2.5 W 66.5 O
Plays Per Game 76.2 20
10/9 SOUTH CAROLINA 45-20 W -11 W 56.5 O
Time of Possession 24:24 130
10/16 OLE MISS 26-31 L 1 L 82 U
3rd Down Conv. % 46.3% 9 43.7% 106
10/23 at Alabama 24-52 L 25.5 L 68 O
Total Yards Per Game 479.4 7 441.9 105
11/6 at Kentucky 45-42 W -1 W 58 O
Yards Per Play 6.3 18 5.4 61
11/13 GEORGIA 17-41 L 19.5 L 56 O
Rush Attempts Per Game 44.2 13
11/20 S ALABAMA 60-14 W -28.5 W 61 O
Rush Yards Per Game 218.8 12 158 65
11/27 VANDERBILT 45-21 W -33 L 65 O
Yards Per Rush Attempt 5 32 3.8 39
12/30 vs. Purdue 45-48 L -7.5 L 67 O
Pass Attempts Per Game 28.5 92
Completion % 65.2% 24 62.3% 84
Passing Yards Per Game 260.7 34 283.9 124
Yards Per Pass Attempt 9.1 7 7.5 72
Turnovers 1 22 1 104
STEVE MAKINEN’S EFFECTIVE STATISTICS
SEASON NEW HC? SM PR EFF STRG EYPP+/- SM BR OFFRS-NEW EOPPG EOYPP EOYPPT DEFRS-NEW EDPPG EDFYPP EDYPPT
2021 Yes 54 25.5 2.84 -24.9 4, OC 45.2 7.46 11.65 7, DC 19.7 4.62 18.13
2020 46 16.1 0.54 -2.9 9-QB 27.3 5.83 14.09 8 24.3 5.29 15.2
2019 52.5 21.1 2.58 -23.2 10-QB, OC 34.7 6.93 12.49 6, DC 14.4 4.34 20.13
2018 Yes 40.5 13.6 1.75 -5.5 6-QB, OC 33 6.59 11.93 6-DC 19.4 4.84 16.63VANDERBILT
COMMODORES
HEAD COACH: CLARK LEA (2ND)
OFF. COORDINATOR: JOEY LYNCH • DEF. COORDINATOR: NICK HOWELL
NASHVILLE, TN • VANDERBILT STADIUM
STEVE MAKINEN’S POWER RATING
30.5 (#109 OF 131)
RETURNING STARTERS
14 OFFENSE: 7, QB • DEFENSE: 7
The uphill climb for Vanderbilt seems never-ending. The NIL and transfer portal are 2022 SCHEDULE
only going to make the gap wider for the Commodores, especially with the heightened
academic standards at the university. Home-field advantage rarely exists in a tourist DATE OPPONENT (Est. Line) OppPR
destination like Nashville, and it looks like another long season is ahead.
8/27 at Hawaii (+0.5) 28
OFFENSE
The Commodores have been held under 5 yards per play each of the last three seasons
while struggling to find any semblance of an identity on offense. They also haven’t had 9/3 ELON (-11.5) 20.5
good quarterback play and didn’t get it last season between Ken Seals and Mike Wright,
who combined for more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13).
9/10 WAKE FOREST (+20.5) 52
The offense was learning new schemes last season under first-year head coach Clark Lea
and first-year OC Joey Lynch, but with nine returning starters from the previous season, 9/17 at N Illinois (+7.5) 35.5
Vanderbilt managed fewer yards per play and only one more point per game. The loss of
left tackle Tyler Steen to Alabama could loom very large.
9/24 at Alabama (+46) 73
The Commodores were outgained by nearly 200 yards per game in conference play and
scored only 30 points once in a 30-28 win over UConn as a 14.5-point favorite.
10/8 OLE MISS (+23) 55
DEFENSE
A bad offense makes the job that much harder for the defense. The Commodores gave 10/15 at Georgia (+42.5) 69.5
up nearly 36 points per game and 6.8 yards per play. While the offense didn’t help, the
defense managed only nine sacks in 12 games and got badly pushed around at the line of
scrimmage. 10/22 at Missouri (+14) 41
Somehow, the Commodores were 35th in the nation in third-down conversion rate against,
so it was a matter of stopping the opposition from having early-down success. There are 11/5 SOUTH CAROLINA (+14) 46
seven starters back, but the ‘Dores are learning a new scheme with Nick Howell, who was
the DC for Bronco Mendenhall at both Virginia and BYU.
11/12 at Kentucky (+27) 54
At least the defense could get a respite with two bye weeks, as Vanderbilt plays one of the
Week 0 games against Hawaii, thus getting a bye in October and another in November.
11/19 FLORIDA (+19.5) 51.5
OUTLOOK
That early-season bonding trip to Hawaii could be interesting, and a very winnable 11/26 TENNESSEE (+22.5) 54.5
nonconference game against Elon follows. Unfortunately, that might be the last favorite
role on the schedule, as the Commodores host Wake Forest and play at Northern Illinois
before hitting SEC play. Vanderbilt has lost 21 straight conference games and could very
well make it 29 in a row this season. SCHEDULE FIELD
Vanderbilt’s season win total is 2.5 with heavy Under juice. The NIL and the transfer STRENGTH RATINGS
portal really hurt them and they just don’t have the personnel to stack up. My projection is
1.99 wins, so 3 is a huge stretch. – Adam Burke
49.27 1.4 / -0.1
(#6 of 131) (HOME/ROAD)
SEASON WIN CONFERENCE USA COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
TOTAL PLAY ODDS TO WIN ODDS TO WIN
UNDER 2.5 1000/1 2000/1TEAM TRENDS
• VANDERBILT IS 6-1 ATS (L2Y) IN NOVEMBER
• VANDERBILT IS 3-14 ATS (L17G) - [VS. OPP] AP TOP 5
• VANDERBILT IS 20-5 UNDER (L25G) ON ROAD AS UNDERDOG OF 10 OR MORE POINTS
2021 RESULTS RECORD: 2-10 2021 STATS & RANKS
DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU CL ATS TOTAL OFFENSE DEFENSE
STAT RANK STAT RANK
9/4 E TENN ST 3-23 L -21 L 45 U
Points Per Game 16.9 123 37 119
9/11 at Colorado St 24-21 W 6.5 W 52.5 U
Yards Per Point 18.4 122 12.7 110
9/18 STANFORD 23-41 L 13 L 49 O
Plays Per Game 71 56
9/25 GEORGIA 0-62 L 36 L 54.5 O
Time of Possession 31:13 27
10/2 CONNECTICUT 30-28 W -14.5 L 51.5 O
3rd Down Conv. % 31.8% 118 35.2% 25
10/9 at Florida 0-42 L 39 L 60 U
Total Yards Per Game 311.9 118 471.5 116
10/16 at South Carolina 20-21 L 19 W 50 U
Yards Per Play 4.4 123 6.8 121
10/23 MISSISSIPPI ST 6-45 L 20.5 L 53 U
Rush Attempts Per Game 35.5 81
10/30 MISSOURI 28-37 L 16 W 62 O
Rush Yards Per Game 126.8 95 195.9 104
11/13 KENTUCKY 17-34 L 21.5 W 52.5 U
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 100 5.7 120
11/20 at Ole Miss 17-31 L 36 W 65.5 U
Pass Attempts Per Game 33.2 47
11/27 at Tennessee 21-45 L 33 W 65 O
Completion % 55.3% 110 65.9% 108
9/4 WILLIAM & MARY 43-0 W -30.5 W 52.5 U
Passing Yards Per Game 185.1 107 275.5 117
9/11 ILLINOIS 42-14 W -10.5 W 55.5 O
Yards Per Pass Attempt 5.6 124 8.2 103
Turnovers 1.5 71 1.5 47
STEVE MAKINEN’S EFFECTIVE STATISTICS
SEASON NEW HC? SM PR EFF STRG EYPP+/- SM BR OFFRS-NEW EOPPG EOYPP EOYPPT DEFRS-NEW EDPPG EDFYPP EDYPPT
2021 Yes 28 -5.3 -0.72 3 8-QB, OC 22.2 5.24 16.27 6, DC 28 5.96 14.42
2020 28 -1.9 -1.76 10 5-QB, OC 17.5 5.06 20.2 11, DC 32.6 6.82 14.04
2019 35.5 4.3 0.13 -7.2 7, OC 28.2 5.75 12.63 5 24.8 5.62 15.08
2018 46.5 19.5 2.03 -1.1 7-QB, OC 36.1 7.17 13.05 5-DC 16.6 5.14 21.96MIDDLE TENNessee STate
BLUE RAIDERS
HEAD COACH: RICK STOCKSTILL (17TH)
OFF. COORDINATOR: MITCH STEWART • DEF. COORDINATOR: SCOTT SHAFER
MURFREESBORO, TN • JOHNNY “RED” FLOYD STADIUM
STEVE MAKINEN’S POWER RATING
34 (#95 OF 131)
RETURNING STARTERS
11 OFFENSE: 5, QB • DEFENSE: 6
Middle Tennessee is one of the teams that really upgraded at the quarterback position. 2022 SCHEDULE
The Blue Raiders wound up using four different starters last season, including Nick
Vattiato, who was supposed to redshirt. With better health at the most important position DATE OPPONENT (Est. Line) OppPR
on the field, MTSU looks poised to improve, but this is a team that hasn’t won more than
eight games since 2009. Could this be the year? 9/3 at James Madison (+1.5) 31.5
OFFENSE
Chase Cunningham had a 16-3 TD-INT ratio and completed over 62% of his passes 9/10 at Colorado St (+1) 32
through five starts before getting hurt. That was after NC State transfer Bailey Hockman
retired from football. Mike DiLiello took over and didn’t wow anybody, so coach Rick
Stockstill decided to burn Vattiato’s redshirt. He threw five picks in his first start but finished
9/17 TENNESSEE ST (-28) 9
with a 7-6 TD-INT ratio and was the Bahamas Bowl MVP in a win over Toledo. The QB
position seems to be in good hands with Cunningham and Vattiato, so what about the rest 9/24 at Miami Fl (+25.5) 57
of the squad? Well, MTSU only ran for 3.5 yards per carry, which made the quarterback
injuries much worse. This was an offense that only managed 5.1 yards per play, has
to replace its top two receivers and looks weak at the running back spot again. There 9/30 TX-SAN ANTONIO (+0.5) 38
are only four returning starters from last year’s group, plus a JUCO transfer at WR in
Quaterrius Tolbert, who was a starter at Jones College and is a former three-star recruit.
New offensive coordinator Mitch Stewart comes from the pass-happy Samford program, 10/8 at UAB (+11.5) 42.5
where he had a top-10 offense at the FCS ranks last season.
10/15 W KENTUCKY (+4.5) 41
DEFENSE
Defensive coordinator Scott Shafer has been here a long time for someone who was
once the head coach at Syracuse and a coordinator at a few Power 5 programs. Maybe 10/29 at UTEP (-2.5) 29
he’s happy in Murfreesboro. This has been a respectable defense throughout most of his
tenure, except for 2019 and 2020. Last year’s group allowed only 5.2 yards per play,
almost a full yard better than 2020. Stuffing the run was a priority for MTSU. Only two 11/5 at Louisiana Tech (PK) 31.5
opponents prior to Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl rushed for at least five yards per carry,
as the Blue Raider front held the opposition to 3.9 yards per carry. The pass defense was
one of the few to hold Western Kentucky at bay, even though the Hilltoppers won that 11/12 CHARLOTTE (-8) 29.5
game 48-21. The Blue Raiders were -7 in turnover margin in that game. For the season,
amazingly enough, MTSU was +11 in turnover margin, even with that one huge outlier.
The defense had 17 interceptions and recovered 15 fumbles to tie for the top spot in the 11/19 FLA ATLANTIC (-4) 33.5
country.
11/26 at Fla International (-13) 18.5
OUTLOOK
MTSU opens with three of four on the road, including a visit to Colorado State in Week
2. The Blue Raiders also draw the conference’s four best teams and have to go to UAB
and UTEP. The schedule does not do this team any favors, especially with UTSA on a short SCHEDULE FIELD
week after playing Miami. Cunningham is an undersized QB and Vattiato is the player
of the future, so that battle may rage on all season long. The win total for MTSU is 5.5 STRENGTH RATINGS
and my numbers say 5.66, so there is a high probability for five or six wins. Given the
schedule, I’ll lean closer to 5. – Adam Burke
33.15 3.3 / -0.1
(#113 of 131) (HOME/ROAD)
SEASON WIN CONFERENCE USA COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
TOTAL PLAY ODDS TO WIN ODDS TO WIN
UNDER 5.5 13/1 3000/1TEAM TRENDS
• MIDDLE TENN STATE IS 12-4 ATS (L5Y) AS FAVORITE OF MORE THAN 7 POINTS
• MIDDLE TENN STATE IS 2-8 ATS (L3Y) IN SEPTEMBER
• MIDDLE TENN STATE IS 11-3-1 OVER (L15G) HEAD-TO-HEAD VS. FLORIDA INTL
2021 RESULTS RECORD: 7-6 2021 STATS & RANKS
DATE OPPONENT SCORE SU CL ATS TOTAL OFFENSE DEFENSE
STAT RANK STAT RANK
9/4 MONMOUTH NJ 50-15 W -9 W 58.5 O
Points Per Game 28.2 58 26.6 58
9/11 at Virginia Tech 14-35 L 20 L 55 U
Yards Per Point 12.9 25 14.4 64
9/18 at Tx-San Antonio 13-27 L 11.5 L 60 U
Plays Per Game 73.8 31
9/24 at Charlotte 39-42 L 2.5 L 55.5 O
Time of Possession 30:26 48
10/2 MARSHALL 34-28 W 11 W 65.5 U
3rd Down Conv. % 31.6% 119 37.2% 44
10/9 at Liberty 13-41 L 20 L 59 U
Total Yards Per Game 363.7 92 382.9 63
10/22 at Connecticut 44-13 W -14 W 54 O
Yards Per Play 4.9 104 5.2 40
10/30 SOUTHERN MISS 35-10 W -13 W 47 U
Rush Attempts Per Game 35.3 83
11/6 at W Kentucky 21-48 L 17.5 L 66.5 O
Rush Yards Per Game 126 96 142.5 41
11/13 FLA INTERNATIONAL 50-10 W -10.5 W 55 O
Yards Per Rush Attempt 3.6 99 4.2 65
11/20 OLD DOMINION 17-24 L -3 L 48.5 U
Pass Attempts Per Game 36.4 21
11/27 at Fla Atlantic 27-17 W 3.5 W 49.5 U
Completion % 63.2% 42 57.8% 27
12/17 vs. Toledo 31-24 W 10.5 W 50 O
Passing Yards Per Game 237.7 60 240.4 79
Yards Per Pass Attempt 6.5 107 6.4 15
Turnovers 1.8 102 2.3 1
STEVE MAKINEN’S EFFECTIVE STATISTICS
SEASON NEW HC? SM PR EFF STRG EYPP+/- SM BR OFFRS-NEW EOPPG EOYPP EOYPPT DEFRS-NEW EDPPG EDFYPP EDYPPT
2021 36.5 7.8 0.3 -1.6 9, OC 29.9 5.24 12.19 10 23.3 4.94 15.39
2020 27 -7.6 -1.81 13.8 8-QB 21.6 4.71 14.87 5 42.3 6.52 11.4
2019 33.5 3.7 0.9 -5.7 5 31.3 6.75 13.86 6 28.4 5.85 15.28
2018 39 11.1 0.94 5.1 8-QB 34.5 5.92 12.08 9 23.3 4.99 14.99SUBSCRIPTION BENEFITS
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