Decoding Tomorrow: 10 Observable Trends To Get You Thinking Like A Futurist
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Decoding Tomorrow: 10 Observable Trends To Get You Thinking Like A Futurist 39 47 39 561613736 47 3717363189 561613736 3816391363 3717363189 719361937 3816391363 16272362 719361937 6262839 16272362 31736721 6262839 08111018 31736721 27 330 08111018 01 823 27 330 71 028 01 823 37 283 71 028 0 28 37 283 $ 3 72 0 28 0 3 72 0
1 Startups: Creative Destruction Make no mistake about it – we are in It’s a similar story in the United States. bit slowly? Get in Hadrian, a robotic the midst of a revolution. Not so long According to the American Enterprise brick-layer. 6 ago technology used to be thought of Institute, thanks to creative as an industry in its own right. Now it’s destruction, of all the firms that made Smart companies are looking for ways simply a part of the fabric… ingrained the Fortune 500 list in 1955 – only 60 to think like futurists and to learn from, 2 and partner with, these game-changing into almost every industry you can remained on that list by 2017. In a note imagine – from InsurTech, RegTech and to investors, Credit Suisse’s analysts startups. For an example of how to do FinTech, to AgriTech and EduTech. point out that “the average age of a it right, check out LumenLab 7- When you take a step back, it’s fair to company listed on the S&P 500 has launched by our client Metlife, with the say that every company is now a fallen from almost 60 years old in the aim of breathing new life into the 3 insurance industry, this exciting technology company – with a license in 1950s to less than 20 years currently”, your old vertical. whilst Innosight’s 2018 Corporate incubator is ushering in a new era of Longevity Forecast predicted that, “at open innovation and collaboration with As the potential applications and the current churn rate, about half of InsurTechs. In 2018 the incubator implications of these new technologies S&P 500 companies will be replaced directly led to Metlife’s ‘Vitana’, the 4 world’s first automated insurance continue to unfold, swift and nimble over the next ten years.” startups continue to transform the solution that harnesses blockchain tech $ business landscape. Take Australia for In other words – the business to offer women with gestational example. As James Alexander, landscape is changing… and fast. The diabetes financial protection without Co-Founder of Galileo Ventures, rate of change has never been this fast them even needing to make a claim.8 recently pointed out - in 2013 VC funds and will never be this slow again. raised a mere $155m, Atlassian had Entrepreneurship is exploding, with an recently raised $60m at a $460m exciting breed of young entrepreneurs post-money valuation, and you could leading the charge. Again, in Australia, count the number of accelerators on Aussies have over 70 startup programs one hand (four). Oh, and the biggest affiliated with universities and half of exit in tech was just $46m (software the nation’s most active accelerators The average lifespan of an S&P500 company company Distra). are university backed. is now less than 20 years 70 Fast forward to 2018 and over $1.8bn This has seen startups tackle almost 60 was raised by VC funds in the previous every conceivable pain point for every two years, there are 25 accelerators & industry you can think of. Think banks 50 incubators, and Atlassian’s valuation are evil for charging excessive sits closer to the $13bn mark. And 40 overdraft fees? FinTech startup Dave there have been multiple billion dollar will help advance you up to $75 at 0% 30 exits in the last 12 months.1 5 interest. Think your brickie is moving a 20 10 0 1958 1980 2012 9
2 We’re Starting To Go A Little More Hands-Free BlackBerry Apple iPhone ~ 5 1/2 years to 30% 8000 series Voice assistants have well and truly mirrors that purchase your wardrobe adoption reached the mainstream. Bain for you, smart fridges that plan your research found that in the U.S. 33% of meals and order your shopping based 18-24-year-olds, and nearly a quarter Smartphones on what you’ve got hiding inside it – October 2005 June 2007 February 2011 of 25-44-year-olds, already have a but most humans aren’t thinking of voice assistant like Alexa or Google the implications. Voice Assistant Home. 10 From telling you the time to November 2014 July 2018 turning on your Christmas lights, you How is the rate of conversational name it – you can bark out the order commerce adoption likely to ~3 1/2 years to 30% and consider it done. And for those of influence how we make decisions? adoption you thinking that most people will Consumer brands need to start Amazon Echo still be too reluctant to use it for looking beyond Google search 13 sensitive information like banking… rankings and start thinking about think again! Another piece of what it would take to be the first research Bain did in 2018 showed that name on their customer’s voice voice assistants are being adopted at assistants’ lips – or voice search a far quicker rate than smartphones rankings. In a world where Amazon were (3 ½ years to 30% adoption has the power to recommend compared to 5 ½ years),11 and that 27% everything from Amazon Prime to are already open to using a voice Amazon private label batteries – this Voice assistants are coming on strong assistant for everyday banking. The isn’t going to be an easy battle. This rate of change is going exponential. is a wake-up call to not only be thinking of how to remove friction, Wherever you look companies are but to completely reimagine how looking to remove friction in the your brand’s voice is going to be 33 27 purchasing process. Again, looking at heard. 24 22 Amazon, 2018 saw the public launch % 15 of their first payless supermarkets. 12 12 Customers can literally walk in, throw 6 their shopping in their cart, and walk straight out the door. In Asia, payless 18-24 25-34 25-34 45-54 55-64 64+ Currently using Open to using in the stores are even taking it a step further future “Do you have a voice by offering you discounts for smiling “Would you consider using assistant device at home a voice assistant to do as you enter. 12 (e.g. Amazon Echo/Alexa, everyday banking?” Google home)?” We’re witnessing a fundamental shift in the way we interact with products, 14 and it’s raising some serious questions. We’re so close to smart
3 Learning To See People As Digits We’re fast learning the true power of for his arguments via Facebook. In Oil giant Shell for example built an data. The trouble is, we’re not always the end, Alexander Nix, Former CEO analytics platform that allows them to 394 great at getting it right. According to of Cambridge Analytica has gone on anticipate when over 3,000 different 75 39 Gartner a staggering 85% of all Big record saying “pretty much every oil drilling machine parts might falter. 616137363 47 Data projects fail. message that Trump put out was No longer were they in the dark when 7173631893 561613736 data-driven.” 15 Claiming to be it came to the state of parts and 8163913637 3717363189 In 2018 Cambridge Analytica hit the customer-centric without being machinery across its various global 1936193716 headlines and showed the world just data-centric is no longer plausible. 3816391363 facilities. Instead, as well as reducing 27236262 how powerful data can be. In fact, in 719361937 their inventory analysis from over 48 628393173 2012 Computational Psychologist and In sport, data has clubs and codes 16272362 hours to less than 45 minutes, they 672108111 Big Data Scientist Michal Kosinski looking for advantages wherever now had a clear and compelling 6262839 01827330 proved that, based on an average of they can find it in true Money Ball picture that allowed them to plan 31736721 018 2371 68 Facebook “likes”, you could style. In 2018, Arsenal welcomed their operations effectively. In an 08111018 02 8372 predict a person’s skin colour with Mikhail Zhilkin to their backroom industry where minutes matter and 27 330 83 028 95% accuracy, their sexual orientation staff in order to help them downtime costs millions of dollars a 37 208 01 823 with 88% accuracy, and their political overcome recent fitness and injury day, big data is now a very big deal. 3 018 71 028 affiliation to 85%, along with a whole issues. His background? Mikhail is a 23 37 283 range of other information like drug Russian data scientist, who played a With all the amazing possibilities 0 28 and alcohol use, religious beliefs and key part in the success of Candy afforded by these great swathes of 3 72 whether their parents were divorced Crush. In case you’re wondering just data – how is your company handling 0 or not. In 2018, it became popular how successful Candy Crush has it? And how confident are you that knowledge that using a similar been, the series of games you’re doing all you can to harness methodology, Cambridge Analytica reportedly brings in close to US$4m that data to provide actionable 39 reportedly played a significant part in a day, with the original 2012 Candy insights to help you work smarter and 47 39 both the Brexit vote and Trump’s Crush Saga responsible for an create more value for your 561613736 47 election. In the case of Trump’s astounding revenue of US$930m for customers? 3717363189 561613736 campaign, the company helped to the 12 month period ending July 3816391363 3717363189 segment, target, and tailor messages 2018. 7193619371 3816391363 to an alarming degree – at the level of 62723626 719361937 psychographics. It’s said that on the It’s not just about predicting 26283931 16272362 day of the third presidential debate success – smart companies are using 73672108 6262839 with Clinton in 2016, Trump’s team big data to predict, prevent and 111018273 31736721 tested 175,000 different ad variations minimise the impact of failures too. 30 0182 08111018 37 102 27 330 83 728 01 823 3 028 71 028 37 20 37 283 8 30 0 28 1 3 72 0
4 The Quantified Self and Tales of Transformation It was 2007 when Gary Wolf and Kevin Kelly coined the term ‘Quantified Self’, and now it seems everywhere you turn there is a new app or device to help us keep track of a new aspect of our lives – from sleep, to sun exposure, to This is becoming so important, because we’re not just talking about a shift from a ‘Transactional Economy’ to an ‘Experience Economy’ anymore - we’re witnessing a shift to a ‘Transformation Economy’. Brands like 18 Nike, and Lululemon understand that 5 From Compliance & Keeping It Safe To Doing The breathing – you name it. when you partner with consumers on Right Thing 19 that journey, you create deep and According to a study from Juniper meaningful connections. So, whether Research, there are already over it’s energy savings, muscle gains or 40,000 health-related smartphone share profits – how are you using data apps,16and estimates show 60% of U.S. to create rich, visualised and There’s a flipside to all this data And when it comes to ‘doing the right adults are using some form of device compelling stories – and proof points - though. A recent report showed that thing’, brands are being held to a to track their exercise, diet or weight.17 of personal / business transformation close to 90% of people attempting to higher standard than ever before. No It’s no longer about being able to log to your clients? log in to online retailers’ websites are longer is Corporate Social 20 our data and use it as a yardstick hackers using stolen data. And KMPG Responsibility about taking against yesterday’s scores, we’re now showed that 19% would not use a ownership of your own impact – each using it to get a rich and in-depth view retailer if they had been breached, and every partnership and platform of what is really going on – and using it and 33% would take an extended you are using is coming under the to predict our future selves. The data is break before they would use them spotlight too. Even the seemingly 21 starting to tell stories, in turn creating again. With large scale scandals like untouchable ones. science fact. And brands need to be the Equifax hack rumbling on, it’s looking at ways that they can tell us more important than ever for brands At Thinque, with our work in the these stories. to ensure that they have their house marketing industry we’ve seen this in order when it comes to keeping increased scrutiny up-close. In 2018 data safe. our client Interpublic Group were presiding over Unilever’s marketing As Gartner put it, as customers activities as the world’s second become increasingly aware of both biggest advertising spender (at the the value of their personal time) publicly threatened to withdraw information and how it is being used, its advertising from online platforms the conversation is shifting from “are like Facebook and Google,23 with we compliant?” towards “are we Unilever’s CMO describing them as 22 doing the right thing?”. We need to ‘little better than a swamp’ in terms 24 start coding our business models for of transparency. ethics.
6 Trust & The New Gatekeepers of The Truth Are we living in a post-truth era? If so, Maybe. But maybe not for long. With see companies shift away from the how do brands prove themselves to a ‘techlash’ escalating (the U.S. saw hype around bitcoin toward deeply be authentic and trustworthy? trust in social media platforms drop a practical uses of the technology, in huge 11% between 2017 and 2018 to a turn ushering in a new era of Trust and truth is such a hotly paltry 30%)29 and the 2019 Edelman distributed trust. debated topic right now. And when Trust Barometer showing that you look at the U.S., it’s easy to see globally 73% of respondents worried It’s no longer enough to try to tell why. According to The Washington about fake information or fake news your customers an authentic story – Post, by November 2018 Trump had being used as a weapon – it’s clear you need to be able to prove it told over 6,000 lies or misleading that we’re witnessing a new breed of beyond doubt. 25 claims during his presidency. In the savvy and sceptical consumers, weary seven weeks leading up to the of ‘fake news’ and ‘fake search’ who 26 midterms, he averaged 30 per day. crave transparency and 30 Spotting a liar is getting even harder accountability. Of course, social too - with AI tools now able to create media is still going to remain an compelling ‘deep fake’ videos, as we important storytelling tool for a while TRACKING THE SUPPLY OF DIAMONDS WITH learnt when the video of Obama’s yet, but companies can no longer rely on glitzy photos and catchy hashtags BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY words being utterly convincingly (and terrifyingly) manipulated went viral. 27 to win over increasingly shrewd consumers. So where does truth really reside? Who can the public trust? Have we Enter blockchain and the digitisation really reached the stage where big of trust. From smart, self-executing data companies like Facebook and contracts, to plugins like TrustedNews Google have so much power that they that verify how biased an article is are, as distinguished essayist and likely to be, to being able to trace the 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 site where your diamond or your 0 author Rana Dasgupta put it during 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 lettuce came from – we’re starting to 0 his 2018 piece on ‘The demise of the 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 nation state’, “the primary 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 gatekeepers of social reality”? 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 The arbitrators of truth.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 DIAMONDS CAN BE TRACKED FROM MINE TO RETAIL
7 Consolidation of Power & The Giants Want More Pie If someone would have told you a the myriad start-ups flooding the rolled from sector to sector, picking decade ago that a site started by a business landscape, the giants also up momentum, removing friction for group of friends at Harvard to rate pose more of a threat than ever. It consumers, and gathering size and the attractiveness of girls would soon seems no matter where you look, customers wherever it blows through. have the power to swing elections - I from healthcare to entertainment, Verticals are converging and industry doubt you would have taken them security to education, FAMGA boundaries are disappearing. Is your very seriously. But that’s where we (Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, industry their next target? have found ourselves. In fact, in March Amazon) are extending their claws 2018 we saw one of the most into all kinds of new flavours of pie. This consolidation of power means powerful examples of just how They’re so big that Inc. reported that companies need to be increasingly unintended, far-reaching, profound, when combined (and taking vigilant when it comes to protecting and previously inconceivable the Alphabet, Google’s parent company, themselves from a potential influence of modern-day tech into account) they are worth more onslaught from these giants. With companies can be – as Facebook was than the entire economy of the United that in mind – anyone working in a directly called out by the UN and Kingdom. 32 retail environment should be asking blamed for playing a leading role in themselves what it is that really 31 inciting genocide in Myanmar. The same threat is present in the East, differentiates themselves from the with companies like Tencent and pack, and what they are uniquely Whilst it’s true that on one hand we Alibaba beginning to feel like the offering that can’t simply be sold on need to be vigilant to the threat of equivalent of a snowball that’s being Amazon?
8 Shopping Is Taking On A Whole New Meaning Figures show that we are spending Chinest biggest retailer, Alibaba is a less money buying ‘stuff’ and more on staggering example of what's ‘doing things’.33 James Wallman, possible in retail. Their decade-long author of Stuffocation: Living More association with China's national with Less, sums it up nicely when he Singles’ Day has seen them take says “if you think about the 20th almost complete ownership of the Century, the big dominant value day. On 11 November 2018 their 'See system was materialism, the belief Now Buy Now' fashion event sold that if we had more stuff we’d be $30.8bn in gross merchandise - 40 happier… the big change to what I call reaching the $1bn mark by one experientialism is more about finding minute 25 seconds.41 That’s double happiness and status in experiences the amount U.S. consumers spent instead.”34 online for Black Friday and Cyber 42 Monday combined in 2018. For retailers, this means a few things. Firstly, shopping needs to become Secondly, brands need to makes it more than transactional. Whether even easier for consumers to say 30 that’s relatable direct-to-consumer ‘yes’. They need to create seamless TOTAL RETAIL SALES ($B) brands like Casper,35 and Warby user journeys that not only engage Parker looking to cut out the middle and delight, but that reduce friction 25 man and give back to society in the at every pain point. From payless process.36Or brands like Virgin,37 North stores to next hour food deliveries, Face,38and Krug using in-store 3D printed prescription glasses whilst 20 Singles’ Day activations, hosted events and you wait to curb-side sneaker pick up Cyber Monday festivals – brands need to be looking – these are just the tip of the iceberg. 39 15 Black Friday for ways to elevate their offerings. Expect 2019 to see brands push for new and exciting ways to augment and simplify the user journey. 10 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Comscore, Statista
9 Equality No Longer Just A Buzzword. most controversial ad of the year. who responded positively even said Equality in society has long been on Turning their famed ‘Best a Man Can they “loved” the campaign. This, the agenda, but there are signs that Get’ slogan on its head, their ‘We coupled with the fact that 70% of male maybe the time for talking is over. Believe: The Best Men Can Be’ ad, and 85% of female respondents said The #MeToo movement has not just imploring men to ‘say the right thing’ they felt brands should participate in lifted the lid on the dark underbelly of and ‘act the right way’, amassed 23 culturally relevant campaigns, shows showbusiness, it has forced society to million views, over 330,000 comments, just how precarious a world brands are stand up and start taking action. 650,000 likes and 1.1 million dislikes 45 living in. Consumers expect brands to within just over a week of being stand for more, but opinion is often In December 2018 KPMG disclosed that uploaded to YouTube – dragging the divided across age, sex, and all manner over the last four years seven UK debate on gender stereotypes well and of demographic and psychographic partners had left the firm because of truly into the mainstream in the boundaries. inappropriate behaviour, including bullying and sexual harassment.43 In the process. What does all this mean for how same month, Deloitte disclosed they Whilst many quarters are pointing brands interact, both internally with had fired 20 UK partners for towards a general feeling of negativity their own teams, and externally with inappropriate behaviour over the same regarding the ad,46 independent their customers? How can you become timeframe.44 research by Persky focused on younger part of the solution without alienating millennials and Gen Z found that of the people or being labelled as Fast forward a month to January 2019 3,500 US men and women aged 18-34 inauthentic? The current reality and Gillette’s attempt to show the that they surveyed, 84% of women and appears to be that for brands to world that they stand for more than 77% of men responded positively or at continue to reinvent themselves and just manufacturing shaving products the very least weren’t offended by the truly resonate with their customers, saw them put up a front runner for the ad.47 33% of women and 20% of men they will have to risk dividing opinion. One thing is for sure, culture has never been so paramount. In 2019 expect further emphasis on diversity and inclusion, and a shift away from a society where ‘culture is King’ to one where ‘culture is King and Queen’. Inspired by work from artist Deva Pardue
10 The Boundary Between The Real and The Virtual Is Disappearing AR and VR are really starting to 2016 and 2017 to US$209.2 billion by stool samples for you, robo-advisors 49 gather pace. Consumer products are 2022. If those figures sound taking over the role of financial becoming so advanced (and far-fetched, a 2017 survey by Statista advisors, ‘social credit scores’ affordable) that in 2015 Stanford in the States found that half of punishing bad drivers with travel Virtual Human Interaction Lab respondents would be willing to get a restrictions or slower internet in decided to replace their $40,000 VR VR headset if the price was right,50 China – we really are entering a brave setup for a consumer version of the with 27% planning to bite the bullet new world. One in which the rules of 48 Oculus Rift valued at $350. Whilst within a year. 51 engagement are being completely it’s true that public hype surrounding re-written. What are you doing to VR and AR has dipped from its peak a Along with upticks in Co-Working, redefine your future brand few years ago, continued advances we’ve see Co-Living emerge as a interactions? point to it having a substantial part to genuine trend - with companies like play down the track. According to We-Live (of WeWork fame) aiming to Standing still is not an option. In May 2018 forecasts from Statista, the create a ‘physical social network’, in order to make the uncertain a little global AR and VR market is about to turn reimagining what it means to live more predictable, and to set yourself explode – with the market size in today’s urban environment.52 up for success – you need to take worldwide set to sky rocket from action. You need to learn how to start US$6.1 billion and US$14.1 billion in With 3D bio printers building custom thinking like a futurist. organs, smart toilets that analyse
Your Pre-Mortem Imagine it is now 2022, and on your watch your company went belly-up. What were the trends you missed, the signals your ignored, and the decisions you delayed which led to this demise? What change will you make today to prevent this from happening? FUTURIST Anders Sörman-Nilsson (LLB / EMBA) is a global futurist and innovation strategist who helps leaders decode trends, decipher what’s next and turn provocative questions into proactive strategies. With an average of 240 international travel days a year, Anders’ view is that the future and the now are converging in a city or start-up near you, giving the curious, the creative and the courageous a competitive and sustainable edge. At the same time, that same future contains fearsome forecasts for futurephobes. SPEAKER This Swedish-Australian futurist has shared stage with Hillary Clinton, Nobel Laureates, and European and Australian heads of state. He is an active member of TEDGlobal, has keynoted at TEDx in the United States and Australia, was nominated to the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders in 2019, and was the keynote speaker at the G20’s Y20 Summit in https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/asn-contact-us Click here to get in touch to find out why Australia. brands like Apple, Burger King, Johnson & His presentations are meticulously researched, highly energetic and always fascinating with https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/asn-contact-us Johnson, and IBM have entrusted us with https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/asn-contact-us content tailored to the audience, which is why clients like Apple, Cisco, Mercedes Benz, their future-proofing. Hilton, SAP, Gartner and Macquarie Bank have turned to Anders over the years to help them turn research into foresight and business impact. AUTHOR His thought leadership has been featured in international media like Monocle, Business Insider, Sky News Business, Financial Review, CIO Magazine and Boss. He is the author of the books Seamless: a hero's journey of digital disruption, adaptation and human transformation (Wiley, 2017), Digilogue: how to win the digital minds and analogue hearts of tomorrow's customers (Wiley, 2013) and Thinque Funky: Upgrade Your Thinking (Thinque, 2009).
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