World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup - Christian Aid
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World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup September 2019
2 World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: Authors: Dr Katherine Kramer Joe Ware Christian Aid is a Christian organisation that insists the world can and must be swiftly changed to one where everyone can live a full life, free from poverty. We work globally for profound change that eradicates the causes of poverty, striving to achieve equality, dignity and freedom for all, regardless of faith or nationality. We are part of a wider movement for social justice. We provide urgent, practical and effective assistance where need is great, tackling the effects of poverty as well as its root causes. christianaid.org.uk Contact us Christian Aid 35 Lower Marsh Waterloo London SE1 7RL T: +44 (0) 20 7620 4444 E: info@christian-aid.org W: christianaid.org.uk UK registered charity no. 1105851 Company no. 5171525 Scot charity no. SC039150 NI charity no. XR94639 Company no. NI059154 ROI charity no. CHY 6998 Company no. 426928 The Christian Aid name and logo are trademarks of Christian Aid © Christian Aid
World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: 3
Cover: A man wearing a Fijian rugby shirt wades
through floodwater in downtown Nadi, Fiji.
Photograph: Cometstyles
Contents https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nadi_town.jpg
Summary 4
1. Pacific rugby: a sinking feeling 5
2. Climate change and the Pacific islands 7
3. Some of the main culprints are playing at the 10
World Cup
4. A victory for all? 13
Leaders of Pacific nations gather in Tuvalu in August 2019 (Photo: Pacific Islands
Forum)
4 World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: Summary The effects of climate change are already hitting around the world and the Pacific islands are among the worst affected. But unless greenhouse gas emissions fall, the consequences in the coming decades will be far worse than anything seen so far. Fiji, Samoa and Tonga face an onslaught as the world warms. Hotter and more acidic oceans, due to higher levels of carbon dioxide, kill coral reefs upon which fish populations depend, while rising sea levels will swallow land, increase flooding and salinate water supplies. The region is also likely to experience more category 3 to 5 storms, such as last year’s Cyclone Gita which was the strongest tropical cyclone to hit Tonga since records began. Together these climate change impacts threaten to undermine the islands’ economies, deter tourists, making life increasingly tough and driving young people away, putting strain on the countries’ ability to field competitive rugby teams. Researchers warn of mass migration from the islands as a result of climate change in the coming decades. Alongside the Pacific island countries at the Rugby World Cup are some of the countries most responsible for the climate crisis. Major greenhouse gas polluters like the US, Australia, the hosts Japan, Russia, Canada, South Africa and the European nations will play at the tournament, to the tune of a world in union. But few, if any, of the most polluting competitors have credible plans to cut their emissions to safe levels - suggesting the World Cup’s theme song is just an empty promise. It is not too late to prevent dangerous climate change and to save the future for the Pacific islands, and the rest of the world. But it requires immediate action to cut emissions. Samoan-born England and Lions international, Manu Tuilagi (Photo: Mitch Gunn/ Shutterstock.com)
World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: 5 1. Pacific rugby: a sinking feeling Pacific Island names are a familiar sight on rugby team-sheets. The power, pace and skill of players with roots in Fiji, Samoa and Tonga are one of the glories of the modern game, and account for an estimated 20% of all professional players in terms of heritage. 1 Tongan winger Lesley Vainikolo became the first Pacific Islander to wear the Red Rose in 2008. Now no-one thinks twice when Polynesian players turn out for England - or in the case of Talupe Faletau - Wales and the Lions. These small islands in the Pacific have grown men who have revolutionised the game. Think Jonah Lomu - the Tongan All Black who shredded defences at the 1995 World Cup. Think Kevin Mealamu - born in New Zealand to Samoan parents - with 122 All Black caps - one of a rich seam of Islanders to wear the silver fern. Think too Tana Umaga, Olo Brown, Jerome Kaino, Mils Muliaina and the blistering speedster Joe Rokocoko. Or the great Sir Michael Jones, the Samoan All Black number 7 who dominated the 1980s. England’s World Cup squad included four players of Pacific Island heritage - Manu Tuilagi, Joe Cokanasiga, Billy Vunipola, Mako Vunipola. They are part of rugby’s rich cultural fabric which has embraced hundreds of players from Pacific shores across all major leagues. Likewise, no-one was surprised when Australia’s Wallabies fielded a 34-strong squad in June 2017, 19 of whom had Pacific Island heritage. For all these islands have given the game of rugby, there is an increasing sense they are receiving precious little in return. Recently World Rugby grudgingly backtracked on a 12-team Nations Cup that would have excluded Pacific teams. But this was merely the latest slight. If the public adore Pacific players, major Unions appear indifferent. Ahead of an England v Samoa game in 2017 it became evident that while the home team would pick up handsome payments for the game, their opponents would earn virtually nothing.2 Very few internationals are ever played in the Pacific. No Pacific teams have been invited to join the major Southern Hemisphere competitions. If rugby’s moral crisis when it comes to the Pacific islands is self- evident, its ignorance of the deeper climate crisis is marked. The
6 World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: future of three of its major countries is at stake - the UN reports that beaches in Fiji once used for training are now being swallowed up by the ocean.3 The culture of Pacific Island rugby is at risk of sinking under rising tides and increasingly severe storms. The response from global authorities to this has been weak and slow. World Rugby recently signed up to a global sustainability charter,4 yet has been lamentably quiet on the climate crisis. Rugby's major nations have a role to play in tackling this crisis. Europe, the US, Australia and Japan are all major coal users. Players of Pacific Island origin will proudly pull on the shirt of many of them at the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Just as the world marvelled at Fiji’s historic 2016 Olympic Sevens Gold medal, so it should note the power and pace of the climate crisis. That or one day face a World Cup without any of those famous nations. Former Samoan rugby international Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu is clear where the blame lies: “Greed is destroying the planet and in my mind, it’s destroying rugby”.5 Two Fijian players struggle to tackle Australia’s Julian Huxley while his Fijian- born teammate Lote Tuqiri watches on (Photo: Paolo Bona / Shutterstock.com)
World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: 7 2. Climate change and the Pacific islands Human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide are increasing global temperatures and making weather patterns more extreme. Scientists project that, unless these emissions fall rapidly, changes over the coming decades will cause increasing damage to people, economies and nature.6 While these changes have already started hitting people around the world, including those in rich countries, the Pacific islands are among the worst affected. Sea-level rise means loss of land As global temperatures increase, the world’s oceans are rising as a result of melting ice and the expansion of sea water as it warms. Sea levels have already risen by more than 20cm since the Industrial Revolution and, unless emissions fall, they will rise increasingly quickly over the coming decades.7 Scientists project that, without emission cuts, global sea levels will rise by about 34cm by 2050, by about a metre by 2100 and by about 1.8m by 2150.8 The Pacific islands are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of sea-level rise. Sea levels do not rise at the same rate worldwide, and the oceans around some of the islands, such as Suva in Fiji, have been rising roughly three times higher than the global average.9 One study has shown that eleven islands across the northern Solomon Islands have either totally disappeared over recent decades or are currently experiencing severe erosion.10 Since much of the islands are near sea level, the rising oceans will mean the loss of land to regular flooding and to being permanently swallowed by the waves. Much of the Pacific islands’ population and infrastructure are near the coast (for example, 70% of the Samoan population is in low-lying areas)11 and so are particularly vulnerable to flooding and erosion of land.12 The climate crisis has already forced some residents of Fiji, Samoa and Tonga to move from their homes.131415 Among the land being lost is at the Fijian village of Namatakula, home to some of the country’s top players.16 Salination of water supply threatens livelihood and agriculture The loss of land is not the only reason sea-level rise is a threat to islands like Fiji, Samoa and Tonga. With higher sea levels, water supplies more often become contaminated with salt, meaning residents may be unable to rely on the water for drinking, washing and cooking.17 This would be a particular problem for people on the smaller islands within these countries.18 With continued climate change, coastal erosion and contamination of groundwater by saltwater intrusion risk making soils unusable for
8 World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: agriculture. This would mean that the islands would be increasingly unable to grow food for their own use and for export. Agriculture is currently a major employer and export earner in the islands. Alongside the problems caused by saltwater intrusion, climate change leads to increased temperature and more extreme rainfall in the islands, making soils less fertile.19 Climate change threatens fish populations Fishing is a major source of food and income for the islands, yet fish populations are directly threatened by climate change. Across the region, 47% of people living near the coast earn an income from selling seafood or shells.20 But rising sea temperatures and more acidic oceans - both caused by climate change - are already damaging coral reefs, and this is expected to worsen with further emissions. 21 If emissions do not fall rapidly, coral reefs would be at risk of severe degradation by 2050.22 The loss of coral reefs would cause far-reaching damage to on the survival of fish that depend on them. Reefs provide home and protection to over 25% of fish in the ocean and up to 2 million marine species. 23 In parts of the region, the amount of fish available could halve by 2050 as a result of climate change.24 Reliable food supplies are under threat The combined effects of climate change on the islands mean that people living on them risk being less able to reliably access enough nutritious food. This is because of the combination of damage to domestic agriculture, the loss of fish populations, and the consequences of climate change for people’s income, which could make it harder for them to buy imported food. According to a 2010 study, “climate change puts at risk the very basic and universal need for people in the islands to have access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food at all times”.25 More powerful storms threaten people and tourism Increasingly powerful tropical storms, driven by climate change, are already wrecking infrastructure in the region. Cyclone Pam set the record for the area in March 2015, only to be beaten within a year by Cyclone Winston in February 2016. In Fiji, for example, cyclones and floods already cause damage worth 5% of GDP per year.26 Cyclone Winston - the strongest storm ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere - seriously damaged Fiji’s infrastructure in 2016, causing damage and losses equivalent to an estimated 31% of Fiji’s GDP.27 In 2018, Tonga was hit by Cyclone Gita, the country’s worst storm since records began. The buildings destroyed included the parliament building.28 This is likely to intensify because of climate change: warming oceans allow storms to become more powerful and to intensify more quickly, and storm surge increases with higher sea levels. The damage from
World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: 9 storms and floods in Fiji, for example, is expected to increase by much more than 50% if emissions do not fall rapidly, according to a World Bank study.29 As well as the direct effects on residents of the islands, increasingly destructive storms are potentially disastrous to tourism, one of the major economic sectors in the Pacific region (for example, 20% of Samoa’s GDP comes from tourism).30 Flooding and other damage to beach-front hotels and other tourist infrastructure would hurt the islands’ reputation among holidaymakers. Combined with the damage to coral from ocean warming and acidification, the effect could be significant. One study found that Fiji alone could lose 18% of tourism revenue by 2030, because of climate change.31 Extreme heat would harm people and agriculture The direct effects of rising temperatures are putting people at risk across the Pacific islands, with the elderly, women, children and labourers the most likely to suffer. The islands are in the frontline of this threat. Fiji would face near- permanent heatwave by the end of the century, if emissions don’t fall - projections suggest the number of heatwave days could rise from 25 a year to 350 by 2100.32 With lower emissions, Fiji would face heatwaves for less than half the year. As well as the direct effects of heat, high temperatures could increase the spread of diseases like dengue fever.33 The 2019 dengue emergency in the Philippines has been linked to climate change.34 Fiji suffered a major outbreak of the disease in 2013-14.35 Increased heat will also affect agriculture on the islands. With projected temperature increases, crops may reach the threshold of their heat tolerance, which could lead to heat stress, wilting and crop failure, threatening food supplies on the islands.36 High temperatures would also cause problems for agricultural workers, which could mean that productivity is reduced as workers have to avoid being outside during the hottest part of the day. The combined result of these climate change impacts will be for many people to leave their Pacific islands homes. One study suggested that up to 1.7 million people could move from their homes in the region as a result of climate change in 2050.37 There will be only eight more Rugby World Cups by that date: fewer than the nine that have already been played.
10 World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup:
3. Some of the main culprits are
playing at the World Cup
Fiji, Samoa and Tonga may be among the countries
least responsible for the climate crisis, but when
they play at the Rugby World Cup they will compete
with some of the countries whose greenhouse gas
emissions pose such a threat to their homelands.
A ranking of the countries playing in the World Cup by their emissions
of carbon dioxide shows that other competitors are responsible for
hundreds or even thousands of times as much climate pollution as the
three Pacific island nations:
Total emissions of
Emissions of carbon
carbon dioxide from
Country dioxide per capita
fossil fuel use
(tonnes per person)
(thousand tonnes)
Canada 16.9 617,301
Australia 16.5 402,253
US 15.7 5,107,393
Russia 12.3 1,764,866
Japan 10.4 1,320,776
South Africa 8.2 467,654
Ireland 8.2 38,914
New Zealand 7.8 36,795
Italy 6.1 361,176
UK 5.7 379,150
France 5.2 338,193
Argentina 4.7 209,968
Georgia 3.0 11,558
Uruguay 2.0 6,930
Namibia 1.7 4,299
Fiji 1.6 1,440
Tonga 1.3 136
Samoa 0.7 147
Source: EDGAR38World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: 11
Not only are most of the World Cup competitors major carbon emitters
at the moment, few of them are taking significant steps to cut their
emissions and prevent the climate crisis from escalating. According to
evaluation of the competitors’ climate plans by Climate Action
Tracker, a consortium of climate and energy research organisations,
all of the 12 top polluters playing in the tournament have insufficient
plans for cutting emissions:
Critically Highly insufficient Insufficient 2°C compatible or
insufficient better
Country US Japan Canada None of the major
emitters
Russia South Africa Australia
Argentina EU (UK, Italy,
France, Ireland)
Source: Climate Action Tracker39
To achieve the Paris climate agreement’s goal of limiting average
global heating to 1.5ºC and prevent dangerous warming, greenhouse
gas emissions need to fall rapidly. But the plans of the major polluters
playing at the tournament would not achieve this:
While Canada has pledged an emissions cut, its emissions remain on
course to still be above their 1990 level in 2030.40 Australia’s
emissions are increasing and are expected to continue to grow,
despite its pledge that emissions will fall.41 They are already 7% higher
than they were in 2005 and remain one of the highest per capita levels
in the world.
The United States produces almost more CO2 than all other Rugby
World Cup nations combined, and Donald Trump has announced
plans to pull out of the Paris climate agreement while seeking to undo
regulations to limit emissions. These changes could increase the US’s
annual carbon dioxide emissions by 400 million tonnes, on top of their
current level of around 5 billion tonnes a year.42 Russia’s current plans
would lead to a 6-14% increase in emissions by 2030. 43
The hosts, Japan, are far from cutting their emissions sufficiently to
prevent dangerous warming. Japan’s plans to build more coal stations
mean coal could supply a third of the country’s electricity in 2030,
while it is also funding more coal power stations overseas. The
country is already being bit by climate change, having suffered a
record-breaking 2018 summer heatwave in which more than 1,000
people died. Scientists found that this heat could not have happened
without human-caused climate change.4412 World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: South Africa’s government has announced plans to move away from coal use, but the country is still projected to release 82% more greenhouse gas in 2030 than it did in 1990.45 The European Union’s emissions have largely not fallen since 2014, although they are projected to start decreasing again.46 While the EU has more ambitious climate targets than most of the other major emitters playing at the World Cup, its targets are still insufficient to prevent dangerous warming. On top of this failure to cut their own emissions, many of the competitors, like the UK and Japan, are still funding fossil fuel infrastructure in other countries, increasing their climate impacts beyond their borders. UK government backed export finance provided £2.6 billion to support the energy sector between 2013 and 2018. Of this, 90% (£2.4 billion) of it went to fossil fuel projects in low and middle-income countries, thereby locking them into carbon-intensive energy generation for decades rather than helping the transition to renewables. 47 The New Zealand All Blacks performing the haka. Photo: Marc48
World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: 13 4. A victory for all? It is impossible to imagine international rugby without the Pacific island countries. But it is on course to happen. The onslaught Fiji, Samoa and Tonga face from climate change will make life on the islands increasingly difficult. More and more people will consider leaving the islands altogether, while those who are left will face ever-greater challenges from extreme weather, rising sea levels, salinated water supplies and the other consequences of climate change. Some of the countries most responsible for this catastrophe will play alongside the Pacific island players, to the tune of a world in union. For that phrase to be more than just an empty slogan, the worst polluters must clean up their act. And yet it is not game over. Some of the worst polluters at the World Cup are due to make major decisions about their emissions. As part of the Paris climate agreement, countries are expected to review and strengthen their emission-cutting commitments by 2020. Over the coming months, governments of the high-emitting countries must show leadership if the world is to prevent dangerous warming. The future of the World Cup, the Pacific islands and indeed the whole world depends on it. Children playing rugby in Fiji. Photo: Tomas Maltby 49
14 World in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup:
End notes
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Sunday Times, 2017 https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10
18 Vulnerability of island countries in the South 665/246138/WHO-FWC-PHE-EPE-15.35-
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should-be-ashamed-for-turning-their-backs- Pacific to sea level rise and climate change, eng.pdf;jsessionid=FF20C9CA85CDCE6D6
on-samoa-08tc7s6tx Nobuo Mimura, 1999 https://www.int- 5F97EBD3FC258D1?sequence=1
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https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and- J Barnett, Regional Environmental Change, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-
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Fiji’s international rugby success, UNWorld in disunion: Climate change and the Rugby World Cup: 15
48 Photo by Marc, used under creative commons 49 Photo by Tomas Maltby, used under creative
719/cmselect/cmenvaud/1804/180405.htm# https://www.flickr.com/photos/sumofmarc/21 commons
_idTextAnchor012 608624713/in/photostream/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/huygens/8405
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