UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020 - Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19 (Summary) - AWS
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UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020
Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19
(Summary)
Executive • The world is facing an unprecedented global health, social and
economic emergency with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Summary • Travel and tourism is among the most affected sectors with
airplanes on the ground, hotels closed and travel restrictions put
in place in virtually all countries around the world.
• In an unprecedented blow to the tourism sector, the COVID-19
pandemic has cut international tourist arrivals in the first quarter
of 2020 to a fraction of what they were a year ago.
• Available data points to a double-digit decrease of 22% in Q1
2020, with arrivals in March down by 57%. This translates into a
loss of 67 million international arrivals and about USD 80 billion in
receipts.
Executive • Prospects for the year have been downgraded several times
since the outbreak in view of the high level of uncertainty.
Summary • Current scenarios point to declines of 58% to 78% in
international tourist arrivals for the year, depending on the speed
of the containment and the duration of travel restrictions and
shutdown of borders, although the outlook remains highly uncertain
(the scenarios are not forecasts and should not be interpreted
as such).
• The scenarios reflect three possible patterns of monthly change
in arrivals from April to December 2020 supposing that travel
restrictions start to be lifted and national borders opened in early
July (Scenario 1: -58%), in early September (Scenario 2: -70%) or in
early December (Scenario 3: -78%).
• These scenarios would put 100 to 120 million direct tourism
jobs at risk.
Executive • This is by far the worst result in the historical series of
international tourism since 1950 and would put an abrupt end
Summary to a 10-year period of sustained growth since the 2009 financial
crisis.
• Sentiment expressed by the UNWTO Panel of Experts points
to a start of the recovery of international demand mostly
in 2021. According to Panel Experts from around the world,
domestic demand would recover faster than international
demand.
• Considerable challenges remain ahead, starting with the
unknown duration of the pandemic and travel restrictions, in
a context of global economic recession. Countries around the
world are implementing a wide range of measures to mitigate the
impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and to stimulate the recovery of
the tourism sector.The impact of COVID-19 on international tourism
January-March 2020Travel • According to UNWTO’s Report on COVID – 19 Related Travel
Restrictions, as of 20 April, 100% of all worldwide destinations
Restrictions have introduced travel restrictions in response to the pandemic.
• 97 destinations (45%) have totally or partially closed their borders
100% of worldwide for tourists.
destinations have • 65 destinations (30%) have suspended totally or partially
introduced travel international flights.
restrictions in
• 39 destinations (18%) are implementing the closing of borders in a
response to the
more differentiated manner by banning the entry for passengers
pandemic from specific countries of origin”.International • Available data points to a double-digit decrease of 22% in
international tourist arrivals in Q1 2020, with arrivals in the
Tourist month of March down by 57% following the start of the lockdown
in many countries, widespread travel restrictions and the
Arrivals shutdown of airports and national borders.
January - March • This represents a loss of 67 million international arrivals in the
2020 first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period of last year.
• By regions, Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the
impact of COVID-19, saw a 35% decrease in arrivals in Q1 2020.
The second-hardest hit was Europe with a 19% decline, followed
by the Americas (-15%), Africa (-12%) and the Middle East (-11%).International tourist arrivals by region in Q1 2020 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals fell sharply in March 2020
International tourist arrivals, Jan, Feb, March 2020 (% change)
Asia and the
World
World Europe Pacific Americas Africa Middle East
+20
+6 +6 +4 +4 +6 +5
+2 +0 +3
+0
-2
-9
-20
-40
-37
-41
-46 -44
-60 -57
-60
-64 Jan. Feb. Mar.
-80
Data is provisional
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)The impact of COVID-19 on Tourism in Q1
67 million fewer international tourist arrivals
80 US$ billion lost in exports
100% destinations with travel restrictionsLooking ahead
Scenario • The three scenarios of international tourism in 2020 presented
are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as such.
Assumptions • They reflect three possible patterns of monthly change in arrivals
from April to December 2020 supposing that travel restrictions
start to be lifted and national borders opened in early July
(Scenario 1), in early September (Scenario 2) or in early December
(Scenario 3). They are based on available tourism data for
January-March and other information such as the shutdown of all
national borders as of late April, though still in a context of high
uncertainty.
• The three scenarios reflect three very gradual paces of
normalization in which monthly declines in arrivals start to recede
in those respective months and there is no significant or long-
lasting worsening of the pandemic that affects travel conditions
thereafter. All three scenarios consider declines in arrivals
through December 2020, albeit to different extents.Scenario • The scenarios are based on models that consider different
patterns of recovery for the different world regions, where Asia
Assumptions and the Pacific sees a change in trend earlier, as the pandemic hit
Asia before other regions and seasonality in Asia is less significant
than in other regions where the bulk of demand takes place in
June-September.
• The models do not specifically incorporate economic factors on
the patterns of monthly change, though the economic recession
resulting from the pandemic is expected to have a major impact
on international tourism in the near to middle term affecting
consumers’ spending propensity.
• The data and assumptions of these scenarios will be adjusted as
the situation evolves and more information becomes available.Domestic demand expected to recover faster than
international demand
International demand would recover by Q4 and mainly in 2021 according
to the UNWTO Panel of Experts survey responses
When do you expect tourism demand for your destination 3- When do you expect international demand for your
will start to recover? destination will start to recover?
50% 45% 100%
39% 90%
40% 80%
34%
70%
30% 24% 25% 60%
50%
20% 14% 15% 40%
30%
10% 20%
3%
10%
0% 0%
By May-June By July-September By October-December By 2021 Africa Americas Asia and the Europe Middle East
Pacific
International Domestic By May-June By July-September By October-December By 2021
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)Forward-looking scenarios depend on re-opening of borders
International tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios (YoY monthly change, %)
+2
0
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
-9
Actual data*
-20 Scenario 1: -58%
Scenario 2: -70% * Actual data through March
includes estimates for countries
(monthly change, %)
Scenario 3: -78%
which have not yet reported data.
-40
Source: UNWTO
Gradual opening of borders
-57 and lifting of travel restrictions Note: the scenarios presented in
-60
in July in September this graph are not forecasts. They
represent alternative monthly
in December change in arrivals based on the
-80 gradual opening of national
borders and lifting of travel
restrictions on different dates, still
subject to high uncertainty.
-100Arrivals could drop 58% to 78% depending on pace of normalization
International tourist arrivals, 2000-2019 and scenarios for 2020 (% change)
15
10
9.4
6.4 7.0 5.7 6.6 6.6 7.2 5.7
3.0 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.2 4.8 3.8 3.8
5 1.9
0.1 -4.0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-5
(e) (sc)
-10
-15
2003
-20 SARS 2009
-25 2001 epidemic Global economic
Sept 11th crisis
(% change)
-30 attacks
-35
-40
-45 2020 Scenarios
COVID-19
-50
Scenario 1: -58%
-55
Scenario 2: -70% -58
-60 Scenario 3: -78%
-65
The above are not forecasts. They are scenarios
-70 based on the possible opening of national -70
-75 borders and lifting of travel restrictions in July,
Sept. and Dec. 2020 respectively. -78
-80
Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based data
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based dataLargest blow to tourism ever could slash 1 billion arrivals
International tourist arrivals, 2000-2019 and scenarios for 2020 (millions)
1600
1,462
1,408
1400 1,333
1,243
1,197
1200 1,143
1,097
1,044
997
1000 930 952
913 893
856
810
(millions)
757
800
674 675 695 692 2020 Scenarios
2009 COVID-19
Global economic crisis
600 Scenario 1: -850 million (-58%) 610
-37 million
Scenario 2: -1020 million (-70%)
2003 -4.0% Scenario 3: -1140 million (-78%)
SARS 440
400
-3 million The above are not forecasts. They are scenarios 320
-0.4% based on the possible opening of national
200 borders and lifting of travel restrictions in July,
Sept. and Dec. 2020 respectively.
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(e) (sc)
Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based dataInternational tourism receipts could plunge by US$ 1 trillion
International tourism receipts, 2000-2019 and scenarios for 2020 (U$ billion)
1600
1,454 1,480
1400 1,347
1,281
1,219 1,222 1,250
1200 1,132
1,096
988 979
1000
892 901
(US$ billions)
773
800 2020 Scenarios
707
657 COVID-19
2009
554 Global economic crisis Scenario 1: -US$ 910 bill. -62%
600 506 Scenario 2: -US$ 1080 bill. -73%
496 485 -88 US$ billion 570
Scenario 3: -US$ 1170 bill. -79%
-5.4% (real terms) (nominal)
400 410
2003
The above are not forecasts but scenarios
SARS based on the possible opening of national 310
+50 US$ billion borders and lifting of travel restrictions in July,
200 Sept. and Dec. 2020 respectively.
-1.4% (real terms)
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(e) (sc)
Source: UNWTO (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (e) Estimate (sc) Scenario-based dataSummary of Potential Impacts in 2020
850 million to 1.1 billion fewer international tourist arrivals
US$ 910 billion to US$ 1.2 trillion loss in
export revenues from tourism
100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at riskEmployment in accommodation and food services is at
high risk, more than half workers are women
Workers in sector most at risk
600 0,6
500 54% 482 0,5
463 mn
400 44% 0,4
38% 39%
300 0,3
200 0,2
157 mn 14%
144 mn
100 0,1
4% 5%
0 0
Accommodation and food Real estate; business and Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade;
services administrative activities repair of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
Levels of employment (mn) Share in global employment (%) Share of women (%)
Source: International Labour OrganizationKey • Pandemic
how long the pandemic will last and when a treatment or vaccine will become
Considerations available?
• Lifting of travel restrictions and lockdown measures
when will countries start easing restrictions and how?
how will social distancing rules impact supply?
• Consumer & Business confidence
how long it will take consumers to reassume travel?
how will travel behavior change?
• Economic impact
how deep and how long will the global recession be?
what will be consumers’ discretionary spending decisions?
• Governments Measures
how do government measures support tourism?The global economy is expected to contract sharply by
3.0% in 2020 to pick up again in 2021
2021
2021 6.6%
5.8%
2021
4.5% 2019
2019 3.7%
2.9%
2019
1.7%
2020
-1.0%
2020
-3.0%
2020
-6.1%
W ORLD AD VA N C E D E C O NO M I E S E M E R G I N G AND
D E VE L O P I N G E C O NO M I E S
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)Challenges & Opportunities
STRENGHTS WEAKNESSES
• Proven resilience of tourism in past crises • Segments potentially affected are also high spenders: international, long
• Domestic tourism can be a buffer haul, business travel and events INTERNAL
• Adaptation capacity: safety and hygiene protocols, trips closer to home, • Major disruption in airline industry with airline failures and concentration
value for money, responsible consumer behavior • Lack of references in previous downturns
FACTORS
• Government support to the sector • Perception of travel as a risk
• Low levels of demand when restarting tourism due to social distancing
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
• Re-think business model • Economic environment: world recession, rising unemployment and jobs
• Innovation and digitalization at risk, closure of business mainly SMEs, disposable income, uncertainty
• Sustainability and sustainable-oriented segments (rural, nature, health) weighing on consumer and business confidence EXTERNAL
• De-escalation phases initiated by several countries toward the ‘new • Uncertain length of pandemic (including resurgence) and vaccine
normal‘ unavailability FACTORS
• Progress in adaptation plans in destinations & companies • Extent of lockdowns and travel restrictions
• Unknown form of the ‘new normal
POSITIVE NEGATIVEUNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020
Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19
(Summary)You can also read
