UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.

 
CONTINUE READING
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
UNI NOVA
       University of Basel Research Magazine — N°135 / May 2020

                               How we make
                                decisions.

 In conversation                   Debate                          Album                   Essay
Antibiotics need       Complementary medicine:              Basel family trees in    Greater equality:
    to work.              a broad spectrum.                    the archives.        gender and the law.
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
Work.
Learn.
Relax.
In der neuen UB Rosenta l
Mattenstrasse 42 4058 Basel
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
Editorial

                                       Team
                                  Contributors to
                                     this issue
                                                                      Decisions, decisions.
                                                      The novel coronavirus pandemic has brought society and
                                                      the economy to a virtual standstill. Suddenly, many
                                                      of us have been confronted with unfamiliar circumstances

                                                                                  Welcome
                                                      and faced with new questions. Governments have had
                              1

                                                      to take drastic measures as they seek to determine how
                                                      the public can be protected from the virus. Each and
                                                                                 to Sci Five.
                                                      every one of us has had to weigh up the risks of even a
                                                      short walk outdoors. And physicians have faced hard
                                                      decisions at the bedside – given the    scarcity of
                                                                                         The University  ofBasel’s
                                                                                                              resources
                              2
                                                      in hospitals, many have had to make Science Blog in Englishas
                                                                                               a  judgement
                                                      to whether intensive care is still worthwhile.
                                                                                              unibas.ch/scifive

                                                      A decision is defined as a choice between two or more
                                                      alternatives and involves a number of complex cognitive
                                                      processes. It’s worth taking the time to realize what
                              3
                                                      these processes are and to reflect on them: How are
                                                      decisions made? Who makes which decisions, and
1	Jörg Rieskamp is a professor at the Fac-
                                                      why? Many decisions depend on the degree of risk and
  ulty of Psychology of the University of
  Basel, where he leads the Center for Eco-
                                                      uncertainty under which they are made. Experts also
  nomic Psychology. He has been involved              distinguish, for example, between the known and un-
  in teaching and research at the Faculty             known consequences of a specific choice – and consider
  since 2008. For many years, the 49-year-            the probabilities of these consequences occurring.
  old has focused his research on the ways
  in which humans make decisions – a
  topic that also provides the focus of this
                                                      This issue presents selected projects in the focus area
  issue. Pages 16–17                                  of decision research with participation by Basel academ-
                                                      ics from the worlds of psychology, neuroscience and
2	Christina Baeriswyl studies visual com-            economics. The majority of the content for this current
  munication at Bern University of the                issue was produced before the coronavirus crisis hit.
  Arts. A self-described “Illustrateuse”, she
  runs her own studio for illustration,
                                                      Researchers from the Faculty of Psychology who have
  graphic storytelling and data visualiza-            contributed to this issue point out that they also speak
  tion in Zürich. In the images she has               to public risk perception related to Covid-19 and respec-
  created for UNI NOVA, she shows the                 tive behavioral change. A recent initiative in which they
  assumptions and effects that are influ-             have started to provide evidence-based policy recom-
  enced by our decisions. Pages 14–35
                                                      mendations can be found online.
3	Fiona Vicent takes an in-depth view of
  the family trees of bourgeois families              We wish you every success in your future decisions –
  in Basel during the 18th and 19th cen-              and stay healthy!
  turies. In her doctoral research, Vicent                                          MONO      MAJOR                    SPECIALIZED
                                                                                                                       MASTERS
  shows how these diagrams reveal not
                                                      Christoph Dieffenbacher,
   Photo: Brüderli Longhini

  just familial relations but also the net-
  works of those family clans that wield
                                                      UNI NOVA editor       Tuesday, 3 November 2020
                                                                                        Further Information: t.uzh.ch/masterinfo
  rich economic and symbolic influence.
                                                                                             University of Zurich | Main Building
  Pages 40–49                                                                                        Rämistrasse 71 | 8006 Zurich

                                                      UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                                              3

2020_masterinfoevent_inserat_uninova_210x138.indd 2                                                                                  16.03.20 11:47
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
Contents

                                                                                   Overcoming antibiotic resistance:                                                                                                                                                                              Our everyday lives are shaped by all manner of decisions.
                                                                                Christoph Dehio in conversation, page 8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Dossier

                                                        6                       Kaleidoscope                                                                                                                                                                                            How we make
                                                        8                       In conversation
                                                        	A better understanding of bacteria
                                                          aims to facilitate the development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         decisions.
                                                          of new drugs to overcome antibiotic
                                                          resistance, says microbiologist
                                                          Christoph Dehio.                                                                                                                                                                                                      16 “Different people make                         If children held the purse strings.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                28	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  different decisions.”                         	Investments are not always made
                                                        12 News                                                                                                                                                                                                                 	Research into human decision-                   in an entirely rational manner. An
                                                        	Corona crisis, cultural management                                                                                                                                                                                      making brings together the fields               experiment shows that children
                                                          anniversary, Paracelsus, uni talks.                                                                                                                                                                                     of psychology and economics –                   already have the capacity to evaluate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  but their approaches differ.                    simple probabilities.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19 How tossing coins can help.                 31 	Once a risk-taker, always
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                	When faced with a difficult decision,           a risk-taker.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  flipping a coin can potentially make          	Individual attitudes in this regard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  things easier.                                  seem to follow a clear pattern over
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the course of a lifetime – in a similar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                22 How our memory can trick us.                  manner to intelligence.
                                                                                                                                                                           UNI NOVA
                                                                                                                                                                             University of Basel Research Magazine — N°135 / May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                	When we have to make a choice, we
         Be brave. Push boundaries.
         Change the future of healthcare together with us.                                                                                                                                                                                                                        often select the options that trigger         33 	On gut feelings and financial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the strongest memories.                         decisions.
                                                        At Roche, we are working towards one goal: solving some
                                                        of the greatest challenges for humanity using science
                                                        and technology. Every day, our work impacts the lives of
                                                        millions of patients all around the world. Sounds thrilling
                                                        and you are interested in seeing more?

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                	It’s becoming increasingly clear
                                                                      https://go.roche.com/personalized_healthcare
                                                                                                                                       N°135 / May 2020

                                                        By challenging conventional thinking and our wild curiosity,
                                                        we have become one of the world’s leading research-
                                                        focused healthcare companies.
                                                        This would not be possible without brilliant students/PhDs/

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                25 “Risk can be positive, too.”                  that our emotions play a major role
                                                        postdocs or recent graduates with a passion for:
                                                                                                                                                                                                     How we make
                                                                                                                                       UNI NOVA — Research Magazine

                                                        • Natural Sciences/Life Sciences
                                                        • Digital Sciences
                                                        • Computer Sciences/IT
                                                        • Engineering
                                                                                                                                                                                                      decisions.
                                                        • Business

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                	What determines our willingness                 when making decisions.
                                                        Be brave, take matters into your own hands. Apply at
                                                        Roche for internships, trainee/fellowship programmes or
                                                        entry-level positions. These development opportunities give
                                                        you the chance to grow and make a difference to patients.

                                                        You own your career. The next step is yours!
                                                        genext.roche.com
                                                                                                                                       University of Basel

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  to take risks? And are men bigger
                                                                                                                                                                       In conversation                   Debate                          Album                   Essay
                                                                                                                                                                      Antibiotics need       Complementary medicine:              Basel family trees in    Greater equality:
                                                                                                                                                                          to work.              a broad spectrum.                    the archives.        gender and the law.

01_ROC_37_HR_20_224_Uni_Nova_(science)_210x280.indd 1                                                                 17.03.20 10:21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  risk-takers than women?
                                                                                                        Cover photo
                                                                                            Our daily lives are full of decisions.
                                                                                            The effects that play a role here are
                                                                                             visualized by Christina Baeriswyl
                                                                                                in her series of illustrations.

                                                        4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
Contents

                                                                                             Imprint
                                                                                             UNI NOVA,
                                                                                             University of Basel Research Magazine.
                                                                                             Published by the University of Basel, Communi-
                                                                                             cations & Marketing (Head: Matthias Geering).
                                                                                             UNI NOVA is published twice a year; the next
                                                                                             edition will be published in November 2020.
                                                                                             Subscriptions are free of charge and can
                                                                                             be ordered by email via uni-nova@unibas.ch.
                                                                                             Free copies are available at several locations
                                                                                             throughout the University of Basel and
                                                                                             at other institutions in the Basel region.
                                                                                             CONCEPT: Matthias Geering, Reto Caluori,
                                                                                             Urs Hafner
                                                                                             EDITORS: Reto Caluori, Christoph
                                                                                             Dieffenbacher. Contributors: Iris Mickein,
                                                                                             Michelle Isler
                                                                                             ADDRESS: University of Basel, Communications
                                                                                             & Marketing, PO Box, 4001 Basel, Switzerland.
                                                                                             Tel. + 41 61 207 30 17
                                                                                             Email: uni-nova@unibas.ch
                                                                                             DESIGN CONCEPT: New Identity Ltd., Basel
                                                                                             LAYOUT: Studio Neo, Basel
                                                                                             TRANSLATION: Sheila Regan and team,
                                                                                             UNIWORKS (uni-works.org)
                                                                                             PICTURES: Page 6: Mabel Alvarado; Page 7: Diana
                                                                                             Vazquez; Fabiola Costanzo; Page 12: collage:
              Research into family trees: How bourgeois families in Basel collected          Benjamin Kniel (2020), klinch.ch; Pages 40–49:
                                                                                             State Archives Basel-Stadt: Stammbäume 53;
                            and depicted genealogical data, page 40                          Stammbäume 77; Stammbäume 171; Stammbäu-
                                                                                             me 193; PA 212a C 3.3; PA 212a C 3.1; PA 212a C 6;
                                                                                             PA 594a A 3; Page 51: Martin Oeggerli/Micronaut,
                                                                                             supported by Nicola Aceto & Ali Fatih Sarioglu;
                                                                                             Page 52: Thomas Kern; Page 55: Cantonal Hospi-
                                                                                             tal Aarau; Page 56: Faculty of Psychology, Priska
                                                                                             Hagmann-von Arx; Chrysoula Gubili; Page 63:
                                                                                             University of Basel, Department of Pharmaceuti-
                                                                                             cal Sciences; Page 65: Martin Steffen/German
                                                                                             Historical Institute Paris.
                                                                                             ILLUSTRATION: Christina Baeriswyl, Zürich
                                                                                             (Dossier), Studio Nippoldt, Berlin (portraits).
36 My workplace                                   54 Research                                PROOFREADING: Birgit Althaler, Basel (German
                                                                                             edition), Lesley Paganetti (English edition).
	In the cryo laboratory, physicists                 hen fever shuts down
                                                    W                                        PRINT: Birkhäuser+GBC AG, Reinach BL
  from the University of Basel cool                 the appetite.                            ADVERTISING: University of Basel, Head of
                                                                                             Marketing & Event, Email: bea.gasser@unibas.ch
  nanostructures down to absolute                 	Malnutrition has a negative impact       PRINT RUN:
                                                                                             13,000 copies (German),
  zero.                                             on the course of an illness. A new       1,000 copies (English)
                                                    study has now been published.            All rights reserved. Copies and reproduction of
                                                                                             any kind require the permission of the editor.
38 Debate                                                                                    ISSN 1661-3147 (German print edition)
                                                                                             ISSN 1661-3155 (German online edition)
	Complementary medicine, a sub-                  57 Books                                   ISSN 1664-5669 (English print edition)
                                                                                             ISSN 1664-5677 (English online edition)
  ject for research and teaching?                 	Latest publications by researchers       ONLINE:
                                                                                             unibas.ch/uninova
	Should complementary medicine                     at the University of Basel.              facebook.com/unibasel
                                                                                             instagram.com/unibasel
  be the subject of research just like                                                       twitter.com/unibasel_en
  other disciplines?                              58 Essay
                                                    Gender and the law.                                                              PERFORMAN CE

40 Album                                          	Why legal gender studies play an im-                                                  neutral
                                                                                                                                   Printed Matter

	Trees of relationships.                           portant role in democracy and justice.                  No. 01-20-357702 – www.myclimate.org
                                                                                                            © myclimate – The Climate Protection Partnership

	A historian investigates how bour-
  geois families in Basel during                  60 Portrait
  the 18th and 19th centuries depicted            	“A supercomputer is like a family.”
  their personal histories in the                 	Computer scientist Professor Florina
  form of family trees.                             Ciorba looks at ways of optimizing the
                                                    interactions between machines.
50 Research
  Tracking metastasis.                            62 Alumni
	When cancer cells break away from
  tumors and enter the bloodstream,               66 My book
  they can develop into metastases.               	Linguist Sandra Schlumpf-Thurnherr.                       UNI NOVA
                                                                                                         is also available in
                                                                                                        German and online.
52 Research
                                                                                                       issuu.com/unibasel
	Images of war.                                                                                        unibas.ch/uninova
	Bridges in ruins, people running:
  Press photographs from the Bosnian
  war and their visual language.

                                                               UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                                                             5
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
Kaleidoscope

                                                       Entomology

                         Darwin’s wasps.
    Wasps from the Ichneumonidae family lay their eggs         However famous the remark, we still know very little
    on or in the larvae of other insects. Once hatched,        about the ecology and development of these insects.
    the wasp larvae feast on the host’s organs – a parasitic   The 25,000 species described today probably make
    lifestyle that Charles Darwin found deeply disturbing:     up just a quarter of the total number. When experts at
    “I cannot persuade myself that a beneficent and omni­      a conference in Basel brainstormed a vernacular
    potent God would have designedly created the Ichneu­       name for the Ichneumonidae, they agreed on “Darwin
    monidae with the express intention of their feeding        wasps.” The researchers hope that this name will
    within the living bodies of Caterpillars.”                 attract broader interest in the family.

6                                                  UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
Kaleidoscope

Urban research

Urban limbo.
Every day, a wave of commuters from the
periphery flows into Cape Town’s suburbs
and city center in the morning and back
again in the evening. In particular, they in­
clude female domestic workers who
spend a large part of their salary on trans­
port and strive to make their way in the
world on a daily basis.
   Diana Vazquez accompanied the wom­
en on their often long journeys from home
to work and followed their movements
and experiences in order to find out what
happens along the way and how this
presents them with new challenges and
aspirations. Her research project is part of                          Biomaterials
the Master’s Program in Critical Urban­
isms, where Basel students spend a                                    Tailored surface.
semester at the University of Cape Town.
instagram.com/critical_urbanisms                                      This porous structure is part of a sophisti­
                                                                      cated triple-layered membrane. As an
                                                                      implant, it is intended to support the regen­
                                                                      eration of tissue at the interface of bone
                                                                      and soft tissue in the jaw and mouth area.
                                                                         Although the two outer layers of the
                                                                      membrane are both porous, they have dif­
                                                                      ferent properties. Where the layer borders
                                                                      on bone, its structure supports colonization
                                                                      with cells that contribute to the formation
                                                                      of bone tissue. On the side that comes into
                                                                      contact with the mucous membrane, on
                                                                      the other hand, connective tissue cells can
                                                                      settle particularly well. The middle layer
                                                                      separates the two cell types and keeps them
                                                                      in balance. Yet that’s not all: The two outer
                                                                      layers contain precisely dosed active
                                                                      substances that specifically support the
                                                                      growth of the different cell types.
                                                                         The membrane is being developed by
                                                                      researchers from FHNW, the University
                                                                      of Basel and University Hospital Basel as
                                                                      well as CIS Pharma in Bubendorf. The
                                                                      Canton of Aargau is financing the project
                                                                      as part of the Nano Argovia program.

                                                UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                              7
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
In conversation

      “Antibiotic resistance
    does not stop at borders in
      our globalized world.”
               Christoph Dehio

8           UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
In conversation

                “ Without effective
             antibiotics, we’ll lose the
                advances made by
               modern medicine.”
       Christoph Dehio from the University of Basel’s Biozentrum heads the
 National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) AntiResist. The microbiologist
    argues for a paradigm shift in antibiotic research, the aim being to make the
   development of new drugs that overcome antibiotic resistance easier through
          a better understanding of the physiology of bacteria in humans.
                                                  Interview: Urs Hafner Photo: Christian Flierl

UNI NOVA: Professor Dehio, when my head         pearance of resistant germs is making             become a risk. That includes routine op-
cold had still not cleared after three          antibiotics more and more ineffective.            erations of every kind, chemotherapies
weeks, my family physician told me I            UNI NOVA: We live in one of the cleanest          against cancer, organ transplants, even
would have to take an antibiotic. I             countries in the world with excellent             the treatment of bacterial pneumonia fol-
thought now I’m going to put my body            high-tech medicine. Reading the descrip-          lowing an influenza infection. Older peo-
through shock therapy, but I’ll be fit          tion of the NCCR AntiResist that you              ple will be especially impacted. Without
again afterward. Is that right?                 head, creates the impression that we’re           effective antibiotics, the tiniest infected
CHRISTOPH DEHIO: Colds are primarily            acutely threatened by all kinds of resist-        wound may become a deadly risk again.
caused by viruses. Antibiotics don’t help       ant germs that are spreading. Are you             UNI NOVA: How did we let it get to the
in these cases. You must have had a sec-        being a bit over dramatic?                        stage where our healthcare system has
ondary infection with bacteria and the          DEHIO: Unfortunately not. However, com-           such a gap in provision?
doctor prescribed the antibiotic to fight       pared with many other countries, Swit-            DEHIO: In 1928, Alexander Fleming discov-
that. You probably got better quickly, but      zerland is still a small paradise. This           ered the antibiotic penicillin. After the
we don’t know if it was really necessary        doesn’t mean we don’t have any prob-              end of the Second World War, this medi-
to use an antibiotic in this circumstance.      lems, but we have them still under con-           cation was considered a panacea for dec-
UNI NOVA: When is it really necessary?          trol. However, antibiotic resistance does         ades. Further antibiotics were discovered
DEHIO: For example, if you’re taken to hos-     not stop at borders in our globalized             in quick succession, for example, strepto-
pital with sepsis. Your life is in danger and   world. Antibiotic-resistant germs are             mycin, with which tuberculosis could be
every minute counts. An antibiotic can          coming to us from Southern Europe and             combated effectively for the first time.
save your life, provided that it’s actually     the Far East. Sooner or later, medical in-        That was the golden era of antibiotics re-
effective. The steady increase in the ap-       terventions that are largely safe today will      search. Medicine cabinets were stuffed

                                                             UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                                           9
UNI NOVA - How we make decisions.
In conversation

full of effective antibiotics. We had the                Christoph Dehio             known antibiotics are ridiculously cheap
feeling we had the problem of bacterial        has been Professor of Microbiology    because the patent rights have expired.
infection under control, but then resist-            at the Biozentrum of the        Compared with other medical therapies,
                                               University of Basel since 2000. He
ance kicked in.                                 studied biology at the University
                                                                                     treatment with antibiotics, which saves
UNI NOVA: A drug suddenly stopped work-             of Cologne and completed         human lives rather than just prolonging
ing?                                              a doctorate at the Max Planck      them, is almost free. Secondly, the indus-
DEHIO: Exactly. So we took another one             Institute for Plant Breeding      try has made serious attempts to develop
out of the cabinet, but in time multidrug      Research there. He also worked at     new antibiotics in recent decades but has
                                                   the Institut Pasteur in Paris
resistance arose. All of a sudden, certain       and the Max Planck Institute for
                                                                                     not succeeded. This may in large part be
germs were resistant to all available anti-        Biology in Tübingen. He is a      due to the artificial laboratory conditions
biotics. No therapy will work at all in this   member of the National Academy        they work in. The cultivated bacteria do
case.                                            of Sciences Leopoldina and the      not resemble the physiological condition
UNI NOVA: How did resistance come about?
                                                  European Molecular Biology         of the germs in our bodies. In the labora-
                                                 Organization. Since 2019, Dehio
DEHIO: Through the widespread use of an-                                             tory, bacteria grow at maximum speed,
                                                 has headed the National Center
tibiotics, human beings have accelerated           of Competence in Research         but in the body only slowly or not at all.
a natural evolutionary process to the                   (NCCR) AntiResist.           Initially, work was successful under these
point that it has become a major problem                                             conditions, but the method has reached
for medicine. Bacteria in the soil produce                                           its limits. Innovation has ground to a halt
antibiotics to prevent other bacteria from                NCCR AntiResist            and we only ever find out what we al-
growing. So that they themselves can              The National Center of Compe­      ready knew.
grow, these antibiotic producers also ex-             tence in Research (NCCR)       UNI NOVA: So research used to be very suc-
                                                  AntiResist is searching for new
press resistances. Those were always                                                 cessful even though it worked under non-
                                                  strategies to combat antibiotic-
there, just not in the germs that are dan-         resistant germs. It undertakes    natural conditions?
gerous for us humans. However, bacteria        interdisciplinary research into how   DEHIO: Exactly. Most known antibiotics
exchange their genetic information. That         the biochemical and biophysical     were discovered using these artificial
is how resistant genes ended up in germs        processes of bacterial pathogens     conditions.
                                                   progress in infected patients.
that cause disease in humans. So treat-                                              UNI NOVA: How do you intend to work?
                                               These processes are then simulated
ment with antibiotics actually breeds re-            in tissue models intended       DEHIO: In the lab, we try to simulate as
sistant pathogens. The more widely the         to enable the development of new      realistically as possible the conditions
active substance is used, the bigger the          active substances and working      that exist in infected tissues of our body.
problem caused by the spread of these               principles. The main location    We still know astonishingly little about
                                                of the NCCR is the Biozentrum of
resistant pathogens.                                                                 this. To close this gap in our knowledge,
                                                    the University of Basel, with
UNI NOVA: If you now develop new antibi-       the involvement of the Department     we first need material from patients, that
otics as part of your research, won’t you       of Biomedicine of the university,    is tissue samples from infected people.
aggravate the problem and accelerate this          University Hospital Basel, the    UNI NOVA: Where do you get the samples
vicious circle?                                Department of Biosystems Science      from?
                                                and Engineering (D-BSSE) of the
DEHIO: No, on the contrary. We urgently                                              DEHIO: We use patient material resulting
                                                   ETH Zurich in Basel and other
need new antibiotics based on new prin-           academic institutions in Zurich    from routine examinations in the hospi-
ciples that can kill the existing multidrug-   and Lausanne. The Swiss National      tal, for example urine, bronchial secre-
resistant germs. But that’s only ever a         Science Foundation is supporting     tions or infected tissue that is removed in
short-lived victory because resistance to               the NCCR in its initial      orthopedic operations. With these sam-
                                                   funding phase with 17 million
any new active substance will arise sooner                                           ples, we determine the physiology of the
                                                            Swiss francs.
or later. We need new active substances                                              bacteria in the human body. We then
from time to time to get one step ahead                                              simulate the infection process on a min-
of the resistant germs in the race against                                           iature scale, for example, by using human
bacterial evolution.                                                                 mini-tissue on a biochip. In this way, we
UNI NOVA: Why has the pharmaceutical                                                 can search for new active substances.
industry not produced any new antibiot-                                              UNI NOVA: Is this process also used else-
ics recently?                                                                        where?
DEHIO: First of all, the market has stopped                                          DEHIO: Only to some extent. Our unique
working. There is no money in antibiotics                                            characteristic is the ideal research envi-
any more. The main reason is that the                                                ronment in Basel. Here at the Biozen-

10                                                    UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
In conversation

trum, we have excellent fundamental            UNI NOVA: What if the NCCR and the new
researchers who interact closely with in-      antibiotics it is helping to develop did not
fectious disease specialists at the Univer-    exist? What would happen?
sity Hospital. We also collaborate with        DEHIO: With the NCCR, we want to bring
bioengineers at the Department of Biosys-      about a paradigm shift in antibiotics re-
tems Science and Engineering (D-BSSE) of       search, but luckily there are more re-
the ETH Zurich in Basel, who work with         search activities in this field, in both the
mini-tissues. And, importantly, we have        academic and the industrial sector, that
pharmaceutical companies here, such as         could contribute to innovation. If collec-
Roche, as well as SMEs already active in       tively we do not succeed in developing
antibiotics development.                       new antibiotics, humanity will increas-
UNI NOVA: And the intention is that the        ingly suffer from the impacts of resist-
pharmaceutical industry will bring the         ance. A study commissioned by the Brit-
new drugs to market.                           ish government forecast that by 2050
DEHIO: Yes, and with our research we’ll        more people would die from antibiotic
create a new basis for the drug discovery      resistance than from cancer in this sce-
and development process. The interface         nario. You can imagine what that would
with industry is very important. We in-        mean for society and what costs would be
volved companies early in the develop-         incurred. The risk of dying from a routine
ment of our research concept.                  medical intervention or a simple infec-
UNI NOVA: The market is not working, you       tion would suddenly be as great as in the
said. So what has to change?                   19th century. We have to prevent that.
DEHIO: One way is for health systems to
spend more money on antibiotic treat-
ments. This is already the case in the UK,
and other countries, such as the US, are
considering it. As soon as there is money
to be made again, more companies and
investors will get back into antibiotics
development. Or you create new incen-
tive systems: The company that develops
a new antibiotic earns a market entry re-
ward if it is successfully introduced to the
                                                                             “  Treatment
market. This instrument takes account of                                   with antibiotics
the fact that a new antibiotic is first sup-
plied only to a cabinet of reserved medica-
                                                                           actually breeds
tions so that initial sales are low.                                            resistant
UNI NOVA: Why?
DEHIO: Because a new antibiotic that is
                                                                             pathogens.”
deployed too widely will immediately                                                Christoph Dehio
give rise to resistance and would soon
become ineffective. It has to be reserved
for seriously sick patients who urgently
need effective medication.
UNI NOVA: You’re a biologist. Do you wish
you were also an economist?
DEHIO: No, the market mechanisms and
regulatory measures are the preserve of
business and politics. Our NCCR is con-
cerned with scientific innovations at the
early stage of antibiotics discovery and
development.

                                                           UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                        11
News

                     Culture, Corona and
                         Chemistry.
Coronavirus pandemic

The minimum
necessary and
the maximum
possible.
The coronavirus pandemic has also forced
the University of Basel to take drastic
measures: This spring semester’s class-
room teaching has been canceled, staff
have been sent home to work and re-
search has been reduced to a bare mini-
mum. These measures are intended to
protect the health of members of the
university and to help stem the spread of
the pandemic.
    Lecturers have moved their teaching
activities over to digital channels, stu-
dents have had to reorganize their studies
and individual doctoral students and post-
docs revised their career plans. In addi-
tion, research projects have had to be
                                                              Continuing education programs
postponed. It has been impressive to see
how keen many University of Basel re-                    20 years of cultural
searchers are to contribute, through their
work, to improving our understanding of
                                                            management.
the spread of the virus and developing
measures to tackle it.                       The cultural management degree program at the University of                The degree
                                             Basel celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. One of the first of   program in cultural
                                                                                                                       management
                                             its type in Switzerland, this two-year continuing education pro-
                                                                                                                    combines practical
                                             gram provides students with advanced knowledge and skills at            cultural work and
                                             the interface between culture and management, cultural pro-            academic teaching.
                                             duction and cultural policy. Since its inception, more than 500
                                             people have earned their MAS in Cultural Management, a quali-
                                             fication recognized in the European Education Area.
                                                  The part-time program, which can also be studied in
                                             individual modules, covers cultural studies, topics relating to
                                             management, communication and media, legal issues, cultural
                                             policy and practical skills. It places particular importance on
                                             cultural reflection, and this is echoed in the online magazine
                                             created to mark its 20th anniversary.
                                             202020.ch

12                                                       UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
The magazine
                                                                                                                                                                        that tells you
                                                                                                                                                                         even more.
Science in conversation

Uni talks in Baselland.                                                                                                                                                Subscribe for free.
In fall 2020, the University of Basel will hold four
panel discussions in Liestal and Sissach in which ex-
perts from the university and the region will address
current topics together with the audience. Two dis-
cussions on “decisions” and pensions will be held in                                                                                                                                                                   UNI NOVA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         University of Basel Research Magazine — N°135 / May 2020

Liestal in September. In November,         two
                                    Be brave.  Pushfurther
                                                      boundaries.
events in Sissach will focus on families        andof other
                                    Change the future   healthcare together with us.
                                                                                                    At Roche, we are working towards one goal: solving some

forms of partnership as well as on the fight against
                                                                                                    of the greatest challenges for humanity using science
                                                                                                    and technology. Every day, our work impacts the lives of
                                                                                                    millions of patients all around the world. Sounds thrilling
                                                                                                    and you are interested in seeing more?

antibiotic resistance.                                                                                             https://go.roche.com/personalized_healthcare

unibas.ch/uni-talk                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The University of Basel’s
                                                                                                                                                                                   N°135 / May 2020

                                                                                                    By challenging conventional thinking and our wild curiosity,
                                                                                                    we have become one of the world’s leading research-
                                                                                                    focused healthcare companies.
                                                                                                    This would not be possible without brilliant students/PhDs/
                                                                                                    postdocs or recent graduates with a passion for:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 How we make                                                                research magazine can
                                                                                                                                                                                   UNI NOVA — Research Magazine

                                                                                                    •   Natural Sciences/Life Sciences
                                                                                                    •
                                                                                                    •
                                                                                                        Digital Sciences
                                                                                                        Computer Sciences/IT                                                                                                                      decisions.
                                                                                                    •
                                                                                                    •
                                                                                                        Engineering
                                                                                                        Business

                                                                                                    Be brave, take matters into your own hands. Apply at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            be delivered quickly and
                                                                                                    Roche for internships, trainee/fellowship programmes or
                                                                                                    entry-level positions. These development opportunities give
                                                                                                    you the chance to grow and make a difference to patients.

                                                                                                    You own your career. The next step is yours!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            conveniently to your door.
                                                                                                    genext.roche.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Simply order free online.
                                                                                                                                                                                   University of Basel

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   In conversation                   Debate                          Album                   Essay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Antibiotics need       Complementary medicine:              Basel family trees in    Greater equality:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      to work.              a broad spectrum.                    the archives.        gender and the law.

                                            01_ROC_37_HR_20_224_Uni_Nova_(science)_210x280.indd 1                                                                 17.03.20 10:21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            unibas.ch/uninova

Chemical landmark

Honoring Paracelsus.
                                                                                                                                                          Please cut out the coupon and send to:
Paracelsus, the Swiss physician, alchemist and natu-                                                                                                      University of Basel, Communications, Petersgraben 35, P. O. Box, 4001 Basel
ral philosopher, is one of the most famous people to
                                                                                                                                                          UNI NOVA is published twice a year.
have ever taught at the University of Basel. He came
to Basel in 1527 as a municipal doctor and professor                                                                                                      Please send me the edition of UNI NOVA in:

of medicine. In his lectures, some of which were held
                                                                                                                                                                        German                                                                   English
in German, he aimed to reform medicine and align
it with practical experiences and experiments – to
                                                                                                                                                          Please deliver my copy of UNI NOVA to:
adapt it to patients’ needs. The Swiss Academy of Sci-
ences is to honor Paracelsus by designating “Zum
Vorderen Sessel”, one of his places of work, as a his-                                                                                                    Surname, first name
toric site of chemistry. The building currently houses
the Pharmacy Museum of the University of Basel.
pharmaziemuseum.ch                                                                                                                                        Street, number or PO box

                                                                                                                                                          ZIP code, town/city

                                                                                                                                                          Email

                                                                                                                                                          Date, signature

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13
Dossier

     How we make
      decisions.
               Illustrations: Christina Baeriswyl

        Which is the best option to
      choose? Should I take a risk in
       doing so or rather avoid it?
      We make decisions throughout
        our lives – yet only few of
       these are made consciously.

14                  UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier

           Attraction effect.
           Imagine you want to buy a TV      sive set that was much worse
           and can’t make up your mind       than the first expensive set,
           between a cheap, simple set       you’d opt for the first expen­
           and an expensive high-end set.    sive set. According to tradition­
           If the choice was then expanded   al economic theories of deci­
           to include another cheap TV       sion-making, however, this
           that was much worse than the      shouldn’t happen. The attrac­
           first cheap TV, you’d choose      tion effect describes how the
           the first cheap TV. If, instead   addition of a third option
           of two cheap sets, your choice    affects a choice between two
           now included a second expen­      other options.

UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                                         15
Dossier

                “ Different people make
                  different decisions.”
                        Research into human decision-making brings together
                            the fields of psychology and economics. One of
                       the first researchers to study this topic intensively at the
                            University of Basel is Professor Jörg Rieskamp.

                                                    Interview: Christoph Dieffenbacher

                       UNI NOVA: Professor Rieskamp, it is said that an adult       impact on decisions, and these traits tend to remain
                       human has to make tens of thousands of decisions             relatively stable over an entire lifetime – for in-
                       every day. Why do we still know so little about this         stance, people differ in terms of what is known as
                       field?                                                       their risk preference: Most people are risk-averse,
   Jörg Rieskamp       JÖRG RIESKAMP: Although the psychology of decision-          but there are also people who enjoy taking risks. At
  is a professor at    making is a relatively new area of science, we’ve            the same time, our duties and demands vary over the
    the Faculty of
                       now moved beyond the very early stages – and re-             course of our lives, and the decisions we make will
 Psychology of the
University of Basel,
                       searchers have already presented a number of in-             be more or less risky depending on the situation. Key
   where he leads      sights. For example, decision-making research re-            factors in this include a person’s age and the corre-
the Center for Eco­    ceived particular attention around 20 years ago              sponding resources at their disposal.
nomic Psychology.      when two researchers from the USA, Daniel Kahne-             UNI NOVA: In this type of research, the fields of eco-
    Before joining
                       man, a psychologist, and Vernon L. Smith, an econ-           nomics and psychology work hand in hand with one
 the University of
    Basel in 2008,
                       omist, were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics             another. Is the latter supposed to help the former
 he worked at the      in recognition of their work. Our research involves          keep the economic system running as a whole?
 Max Planck Insti­     a constant interplay with economics, whose theo-             RIESKAMP: I wouldn’t say it’s supposed to help. As
   tute for Human      ries often postulate a rational individual. Yet instead      psychologists, we focus our attention elsewhere –
  Development in
                       of normativity, we psychologists are more inter-             our aim is to explain how people make decisions. If
   Berlin. He now
   examines how
                       ested in the basic cognitive processes that underly          our descriptions of human behavior yield different
decisions are made     judgments and decisions …                                    results from those of the economists, then these
 in circumstances      UNI NOVA: … and, in doing so, you draw a distinction         findings can aid the development of more realistic
 of risk and uncer­    from the concept of homo economicus, which is                economic models. At the University of Basel, one
 tainty, and devel­
                       guided by the greatest economic benefit?                     example of this relationship is our Bernoulli Net-
 ops theories and
                       RIESKAMP: Yes, that’s the point. An individual’s deci-       work, which focuses on the interplay between psy-
models that can be
   used to explain     sions depend on many factors, including the situa-           chology and economics.
human judgments        tion and context, and these factors can have differ-         UNI NOVA: When people become customers and inves-
    and decision-      ent effects on different people. For example, we’ve          tors: How close is the relationship between econom-
       making.
                       shown that certain personality traits have a profound        ics and psychology in decision research?

16                                                        UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier

RIESKAMP:   There are a number of key differences: In     tion of the reference class – the class of events or
many individual decisions, the potential conse-           objects to which the probability refers.
quences are not entirely certain – or, as we psycholo-    UNI NOVA: Do you see yourself more as a basic or an
gists would say, decisions are made in circumstances      application-oriented researcher?
of uncertainty and risk. In the context of consumer       RIESKAMP: Both. By examining the cognitive processes
behavior, we often neglect this uncertainty: When         that underly a variety of different decisions in hu-
choosing a detergent in the supermarket, we assume        mans, we are clearly acting as basic researchers. But
that the price is fixed and won’t be changed at the       the beautiful thing about this branch of science is
checkout. Quite the opposite is true when it comes        that by explaining decisions, we can also quickly
to decisions to invest in retirement plans, for exam-     establish their practical relevance and their link to
ple. Investing in shares doesn’t necessarily produce      real-world applications. For example, a person who
a high yield, especially when viewed in the short         is very risk-averse in their general behavior should
term. Here, it’s important to account for people’s dif-   be advised against investing their entire fortune in
ferent risk preferences and gauge their risk toler-       shares on a short-term basis.
ance. In the aftermath of the last financial crisis,
banks were even obliged to provide customers with
more-detailed information about the available prod-
ucts and the levels of risk they carry.
UNI NOVA: We make decisions with uncertain conse-
quences on a daily basis. Is a decision therefore a
choice between two different risks?
RIESKAMP: Yes, and this is clear when it comes to ques-
tions of health. For example, many people initially
struggled to evaluate and assess the risk associated
with the coronavirus, which is obviously partly due
to the rapidly changing circumstances. And, when
                                                                         “  The risk of new and
choosing a mode of transport, many people are una-                   frightening hazards is often
ware of the considerable differences in risk – that is,
how dangerous riding a motorcycle is compared to
                                                                         overestimated, while
driving a car and, by contrast, how safe you actually                 we underestimate the risk
are on an airplane, statistically speaking. People as-
sess specific risks and hazards differently and not
                                                                       associated with hazards
always accurately. The risk of new and frightening                        we’ve been dealing
hazards is often overestimated, while we underesti-
mate the risk associated with hazards we’ve been
                                                                       with for a long time and
dealing with for a long time and are familiar with. At                      are familiar with.”
the same time, the subjective perception of a risk                                   Jörg Rieskamp, psychologist
often fails to reflect the objective danger.
UNI NOVA: Would it be wrong to conclude that hu-
mans are not particularly good at estimating risk and
probability?
RIESKAMP: Well, probability theory is a branch of
mathematics, which many people aren’t particularly
good at. In new situations, therefore, people often
struggle to make specific and accurate estimates of
probability. On the other hand, if someone has a lot
of experience in an area and is considered an expert,
their estimates can be very accurate. For example,
meteorologists are very good at dealing with state-
ments of probability in weather forecasts. Commu-
nicating and improving the understanding of prob-
abilities, however, calls for a more accurate explana-

                                                          UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                      17
Dossier

Aversion to ambiguity.
Researchers draw a distinction      demonstrate that people are
between risk and ambiguity.         more averse to ambiguity than
Risk is uncertainty about known     to risk. Our aversion to ambi­
probabilities. This applies to      guity is very easy to observe in
roulette, because it is easy to     everyday life. When renting a
calculate the probability of        car, for instance, most of us try
winning. Ambiguity is uncer­        to avoid a deductible, even
tainty about unknown probabil­      though it’s highly unlikely that
ities. This applies to poker,       we’ll damage the car. Yet be­
because we don’t know which         cause we don’t know the prob­
cards the other players have        ability exactly, we sidestep
in their hands. It is possible to   the deductible.

18                                                          UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier

                                    How tossing
                                   coins can help.
                    When faced with a difficult decision, flipping a coin can
                  make things easier. You’re under no obligation to do as it says,
                      but it could trigger feelings and thought processes.

                                                           Text: David Herrmann

M
           aking decisions is tough. This      choice before starting my doctorate in        sions. A second study, this time using a
           young lawyer would agree: Af-       Basel: Should I stay in business consulting   dice instead of a coin, reached the same
           ter graduating, he had two at-      or go into academia?,” says Jaffé. She de-    conclusion.
tractive job offers on the table. One was      cided to join the team led by Professor           Jaffé says the coins and dice function
in a big law firm with a good salary and       Rainer Greifeneder at the Faculty of Psy-     as catalysts that make it easier to choose:
career prospects, but long hours and lots      chology. As part of a project funded by the   “With the coin, you commit to one of the
of overtime. The other was from a smaller      Swiss National Science Foundation, she        options, which then becomes concrete
law firm. The salary and career prospects      and her colleagues hope to find out why       and therefore tangible. That in turn trig-
weren’t as rosy, but the working hours         tossing a coin can help us make decisions.    gers feelings: Do I agree with the choice
promised a great deal of flexibility. So                                                     or not? How do I respond to the out-
what was he to do? He weighed up the           An appetizing five-course meal                come?” The survey also showed that the
arguments, wrote lists of pros and cons,       The starting point for their work was a       participants, precisely as specified the
but still couldn’t make up his mind. Then      number of studies in which the partici-       study design, didn’t always stick with the
he tossed a coin, which told him to go for     pants were allowed to put together a five-    result of the coin toss. If they weren’t
the big law firm. Yet he didn’t feel com-      course meal. The dishes on offer were all     happy with the outcome, the participants
fortable with the idea at all, so he decided   very tasty, which made the choice harder.     were free to choose a different option –
to take the other job.                         Before each decision, the participants        just like the young lawyer, whose coin
    The lawyer was at the beginning of a       flipped a coin and were asked to view the     showed him what he didn’t want to do.
research project at the University of Basel.   result as just a decision-making aide
A group of social psychologists at the uni-    rather than a strict instruction. This type   Intuition suddenly becomes visible
versity – Mariela Jaffé, Leonie Reutner,       of coin toss is therefore different to the    An act as simple and unremarkable as
Maria Douneva and Rainer Greifeneder –         ones used in sport – for instance, to         tossing a coin can genuinely release us
had been observing for some time in their      choose a goal in soccer. There, the result    from the anguish of making decisions. By
private lives that many people find it very    is binding. The study found that a coin       establishing this, the work of the Basel
hard to make decisions. “I faced a similar     toss really does help people make deci-       research group has filled a gap: Previous

                                                          UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                                        19
Dossier

                           studies focused on the coin toss in soccer,    “Some people feel that a person who
                           where it acts as the decision-maker. The       reached a decision in this way is more
                           findings that show how a coin toss can act     responsible for the negative outcome,”
                           as a catalyst, however, are new. Flipping a    explains Jaffé. Conversely, the coin can
                           coin can help make our intuition visible       also assume a doubling function – when
                           and connect us with our gut instinct.          it corresponds to the person’s own deci-
                                “Now we’re interested in whether ac-      sion. “The participants could feel vali-
                           ceptance of the coin toss varies across        dated in their opinion, while others see
                           different decision-making styles, which in     them as being more responsible for the
                           humans can range from rational to intui-       outcome than if they had just let fate
                           tive,” says Jaffé. Initial results show that   decide.”
                           people who tend to rely on their intuition
                           can deal better with the idea of tossing a     Decisions also mean sacrifices
                           coin. They can then make their own deci-       Flipping a coin can help us make deci-
                           sion based on how they feel about what         sions more easily in our private lives. Yet
                           the coin says. “However, it appears that       the psychologists also say that the find-
                           flipping a coin is not the preferred deci-     ings could conceivably be transferred to
                           sion-making strategy among more delib-         the world of work. Corporate decision-
                           erate decision-makers,” says Jaffé.            makers could ease their burden by using
                                Things become tricky, however, if a       a coin to test out decisions in difficult
                           person rejects the result of the coin toss     situations. However, the researchers say
                           and makes a different decision which           that the feelings and considerations that
                           then turns out to have been a mistake.         ultimately lead to the decision should be
                                                                          underpinned by facts. “People are un-
                                                                          likely to appreciate managers who say
                                                                          that their decision was based on a coin
                                                                          toss,” says Jaffé with a smile.
                                                                               Every day, we make countless choices
                                                                          between different options. Every decision
                                                                          also means giving something up. The law-
                                                                          yer, for instance, gave up money and ca-
                                                                          reer prospects in favor of time and flexi-
                                                                          bility. Jaffé is planning a follow-up project
                                                                          that will investigate how the results differ
        “Every day, we make                                               when the participants know from the
         countless choices                                                outset what they are forfeiting. Specifi-
                                                                          cally, this involves her showing psychol-
     between different options.                                           ogy students either a Snickers or a pack-
           Every decision                                                 age of Smarties – both of which are very
                                                                          popular snacks. The coin toss makes a
         also means giving                                                choice for the participants, but here again
          something up.”                                                  it serves as an aid and is not binding.
                                                                               Jaffé expects this situation to trigger
           Mariela Jaffé, psychologist
                                                                          stronger forfeiting in response to the coin
                                                                          toss: “After all, the participants know ex-
                                                                          actly what they are giving up if they de-
                                                                          cide against the coin.” As yet, the ques-
                                                                          tion of whether the participants were ul-
                                                                          timately happy with their choice has not
                                                                          been investigated. Perhaps the lawyer
                                                                          will change his mind and begin climbing
                                                                          the career ladder further down the line.

20                                       UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier

           Memory bias.
           You’re sitting in the office think­   actually like it so much. There
           ing about where to eat lunch.         are at least two explanations
           You don’t have the restaurants        for this behavior. Firstly, if you
           in front of you, so you have          can’t remember something
           to retrieve them from your            very clearly, then you suspect
           memory. In this situation, peo­       that it can’t have been very
           ple prefer options that they          good. Secondly, a poor memo­
           can recall more clearly. If you       ry of something means that
           have clear memories of the            you can’t be completely sure
           fast-food place around the            about it, so it’s an uncertain
           corner, you’re also more likely       option – and people don’t like
           to choose it – even if you don’t      uncertainty and ambiguity.

UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                                              21
Dossier

                             How our memory
                               can trick us.
                  When we have to make a choice, we often select the options
                       that trigger the strongest memories. One reason for
                   this is that weak memories tend to make us feel uncertain.

                                                           Text: Martin Hicklin

W
             hen faced with decisions in everyday situ-                           ilar to the well-known Matching Pairs memory game.
             ations, we constantly rely on the more or                            At the end, they were asked to choose between cards
             less reliable memories that are drawn                                without actually seeing the snack in question.
from our “episodic memory” system. For example,                                        This experimental setup proved valid. A complex
we need these when choosing a restaurant to go to           Sebastian Gluth
                                                                                  study with 30 participants demonstrated that the
lunch with our colleagues. Or if we are planning a         is a professor and     participants in this situation mostly chose the op-
weekend hiking trip with friends.                         Head of the Center      tions that triggered the strongest memories. Interest-
     When this happens, different options play out             for Decision       ingly, this was still the case even when the snack had
                                                          Neuroscience at the
before our mind’s eye, calling up memories that are                               been given a poor rating beforehand.
                                                              University of
either very vivid or rather faint. Interestingly, very      Basel’s Faculty of
                                                                                       This effect is referred to as “memory bias”. Al-
little research has been conducted on the relation-            Psychology.        though the study provided empirical evidence for the
ship between memory and the cognitive process of                                  presence of this effect, it did not allow to understand
decision-making, although they are used every day.                                the mechanisms at play. In an attempt to answer this
A team headed by Professor Sebastian Gluth at the                                 question, Gluth and his doctoral students Regina
Center for Decision Neuroscience at the Faculty of                                Weilbächer and Peter Kraemer tested the hypothesis
Psychology sets out to change this. The relationship                              that choosing an option of which you have no or very
between specific memories stored in our episodic                                  little memory is similar to choosing an uncertain op-
memory and the decision-making process is Gluth’s                                 tion. And a lot of research has shown that uncer-
primary research focus.                                                           tainty is disliked very much and tends to be avoided.

Memory bias                                                                       Risks taken in the face of losses
Some years ago, Gluth and his team investigated why                               The experiment conducted by Gluth and his col-
certain options win over others and how objectively                               leagues drew on an older, well-established observa-
our memory influences our decisions. This research                                tion in uncertainty research: Where there are poten-
was not conducted in restaurants or on hiking trails,                             tial gains, people prefer the safest choice and avoid
however. Instead, the tests took place on computer                                lotteries and games of chance, as shown in numerous
screens in a laboratory. Participants were first asked                            studies by teams led by psychologists Amos Tversky
to evaluate different snacks and then learned to link                             and Daniel Kahneman over the past few decades.
these snacks with specific cards on the screen – sim-                             Conversely, people are more likely to take risks if

22                                                        UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier

they are trying to avoid certain losses. Kahneman
and Tversky call this phenomenon the “reflection ef-
fect”. Building on these findings and the hypothesis
that uncertainty is one reason for memory bias,
Gluth and his team tested the prediction that the
memory bias also works in reverse when making                                       “  We look at
decisions that involve potential losses.
    And indeed: The experiment did show that
                                                                                 how we can predict
choices based on memory with the prospect of a re-                                  decisions as
ward resulted in the “safe” options with strong as-
sociated memories being chosen. The very opposite
                                                                                   accurately and
occurred when it came to avoiding losses. The predic-                                  detailed
tions thus proved to be correct, leading to a better
understanding of the role that memory plays in deci-
                                                                                    as possible.”
sion-making where risks are involved.                                                  Sebastian Gluth, psychologist
    This could have all manner of consequences.
Older people tend to be more wary of risks than
younger people when making decisions, for exam-
ple. General prejudice would regard this as the re-
sult of older people being more set in their ways. Yet
maybe the reason for this is the quite different and
surprising explanation by dwindling memories. Al-
though this phenomenon has not (yet) been tested
and confirmed experimentally (unlike the fact of          in finding out how our thoughts and decision-mak-
declining memory performance with age), current           ing processes work. I’m not simply interested in
research by the team at the Center for Decision Neu-      knowing what this or that part of the brain does.”
roscience supports the strong assumption that it               To achieve maximum transparency, Gluth and
exists.                                                   his team have adhered to the golden rules of open
    “In our work, we look at how we can predict de-       science from the very outset. This brings about huge
cisions as accurately and detailed as possible. We        benefits in terms of the repeatability of the experi-
target decisions on various levels of analysis,” ex-      ments and the reproducibility of the scientific re-
plains Gluth. He is assistant professor and Head of       sults. This is why all the experiments and the planned
the Center for Decision Neuroscience, which is one        approach is meticulously recorded in advance. Other
strand of the focal area in social, economic and deci-    researchers and interested parties, for example, can
sion psychology. “We work very closely with one           visit the Open Science Framework server (OSF, www.
another within the faculty. As the official description   osf.io) and see immediately which hypotheses are be-
goes, what connects us is ‘our passion for research       ing tested, what data form the basis of their predic-
into human decision-making in a social and eco-           tions, what is known already and what the planned
nomic context’.”                                          approach is.
                                                               Information on the recruitment and the number
Neuroscientific processes                                 of participants, what measures were taken to pro-
What Gluth brings to the table is experience in neu-      duce statistically robust results—this, too, is made
roscientific methods such as functional magnetic          available online in advance, even the scripts for the
resonance imaging (fMRI). This is a unique selling        models used to perform the calculations. This is an
point. These methods are instrumental when it             open invitation for constructive, creative criticism.
comes to identifying the processes inside the brain       Once a paper is ready for publication, it is first made
that connect with the psychological processes exam-       available for peer review on a preprint server for psy-
ined here. Gluth, however, sees this method primar-       chological research before submission to an aca-
ily as an additional tool. These methods will, above      demic journal. Only then is the paper published, and
all, help testing the validity of the decision-making     preferably in a specialist journal that allows open
models and improving them. “First and foremost,           access without a paywall. What more can you ask for
I’m a psychologist,” comments Gluth, “I’m interested      publicly funded research.

                                                          UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                          23
Dossier

Good mood leads to
snap decisions.
If you’re in a positive frame of    quality of your choice is linked
mind, you won’t make optimal        to how many offers you con­
decisions. This is according        sider. Spend too little time
to findings by researchers from     looking, and you risk missing
the University of Basel. They       the best offer. Yet waiting too
investigated so-called sequen­      long also puts you at risk,
tial decisions, which occur         as someone else might beat
frequently in daily life, such as   you to it. The researchers found
when buying a house or look­        that the better the participants
ing for a job. You receive a        were feeling, the quicker
sequence of offers that you can     they were to accept an option.
either accept or reject. With       The effect occurred more fre­
these types of decision, the        quently in older participants.

24                                                         UNI NOVA 135 / 2020
Dossier

                                    “ Risk can
                                 be positive, too.”
            What determines our willingness to take risks? Cognitive psychologist
               Jana Jarecki tackles this question in her research at the University
            of Basel. Her studies show that risk is generally not an end in itself, but
                     rather a means to the end of satisfying certain needs.

                                                            Interview: Andreas W. Schmid

UNI NOVA:   Dr. Jarecki, you are a decision      JARECKI:  In this particular instance, yes.    personal preference – it also depends on
researcher. How often do you choose to           But we have to be careful with generaliza-     the situation. A good example from the
take risks yourself ?                            tions of this sort – risk can vary from one    animal kingdom is given in a study by
JANA JARECKI: Certainly more at work than        area of life to the next. For example, stud-   Alasdair Houston and John McNamara:
in my private life. Being a researcher is a      ies have shown that on the stock market,       Consider a little bird that needs 1,000
risky proposition, in the sense that re-         complex investment strategies are not          calories so as not to freeze to death at
search does not offer a great deal of job        necessarily any more successful than in-       night in the winter. During the day, it
security. If it was job security I wanted, I’d   vestment decisions made at random by           searches for food. If the search is success-
have to work in a different field.               someone with no experience whatsoever.         ful, there is no need to take risks. But on
UNI NOVA: How do you define risk?                This is because in the stock market, risk      a bad day, on which the bird has still not
JARECKI: In risk research, decisions that        is exogenous – which is to say, the market     found much food as sunset approaches, it
we describe as risky can have both nega-         is subject to external influences. This        is forced by the situation to take greater
tive and positive consequences. This defi-       means that even an experienced trader is       risks – such as venturing into areas with
nition contrasts with the everyday usage         often unable to anticipate events.             more predators. In this case, risk-taking is
of the concept of risk, where it is almost       UNI NOVA: Warren Buffett would probably        not an end in itself, but rather a means to
exclusively associated with negative out-        beg to differ.                                 the end of satisfying its needs.
comes – hazards and costs. Risk can be           JARECKI: There are people that have            UNI NOVA: To what extent do these find-
positive, too. For someone with no climb-        achieved somewhat unlikely things. War-        ings from the animal kingdom apply to
ing experience, attempting to scale a rock       ren Buffett is one of them. But I’d like to    human behavior?
face may well involve a substantial risk of      see what would happen if there were 100        JARECKI: In a recent risk study, we con-
falling. For an expert climber the risk is       Warren Buffetts operating in the financial     fronted participants with situations anal-
much lower: Their experience puts them           markets, rather than just one – and            ogous to that of the little bird. The par-
in a better position to evaluate the situa-      whether they would all achieve the same        ticipants were asked to play an online
tion, and their skills have been honed           results. I have my doubts.                     game in which they had to make deci-
through years of practice.                       UNI NOVA: What determines a person’s           sions to reach a given score, with lower-
UNI NOVA: So, more experience means less         propensity to take risks?                      risk and higher-risk options. When the
risk?                                            JARECKI: Risk-taking is not just a matter of   target score was higher, their willingness

                                                               UNI NOVA 135 / 2020                                                       25
You can also read