The Fight to Be Chosen - EAB
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The Fight to Be Chosen How New Rules of Competition Are Shaping Higher Education
2
ROADMAP
Two-Part Agenda
Presentation - Debut of EAB’s 2022 Higher Ed
1 State of the Sector research
Panel Discussion - Reactions and predictions for
2 how these themes will impact the sector in the years
to come
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com3
EAB Offerings Support
Institutions in Addressing
Today’s Biggest Challenges
Student Success
Institutional Success Enrollment Success
& Analytics
Preparing Institutions Supporting and Graduating Finding and Enrolling
For the Future More Students Right-Fit Students
Research focused Comprehensive Technology-enabled
on driving outsized technology marketing and
gains in school platforms aimed at analytics offering
strategic and increasing student aimed at enrolling
operational retention and right-fit students
performance streamlining
operations
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Institutions Peer-tested best Institutions Students supported by Institutions Innovations tested
practices our SSMS annually
Serving 2,100+ institutions across North America, UK, Europe and beyond
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.comEAB Research Provides Step-by-Step Guidance for Your Most
Important Initiatives
Strategy and Implementation Support, Cross-Campus Alignment, Outsized Impact
Guide Strategic Assess Progress &
Decision-Making Drive Sustainable
Change
Identify Hidden Implement Best
Market Risks and Practice Solutions
Opportunities
Connect Communities of Interest
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com5
Today’s Presenters
Dr. Megan Adams Dr. Larisa Hussak
Managing Director, Senior Director,
Research Research
State of the Sector Research Team:
Brian Schueler Maggie Everett
Michelle DiMenna Mariah Coughlin
Connect with EAB
@EAB @EAB @eab_
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.comMarkets Becoming “Winner(s)-Take-Most” 6
Superstar Firms Outcompete, Consolidate Market Power Across Industries
Top 50 Firms Now Worth Consolidation Comes for
Almost 30% of Global GDP Every Industry
Stock Market Value to GDP Ratio U.S. market share of largest three firms
28%
Pharmacies & Drug Stores
2020
2002 2017
37% 67%
Home Improvement Stores
2002 2017
47% 87%
5%
Of US industries have
1990
75% experienced concentration
over past two decades
Source: Bloomberg “World-Dominating Superstar Firms Get Bigger, Techier, and more Chinese” May 2021 (link);
Grullon et al., “Are US industries becoming more concentrated?” Review of finance,, July 2019: Open Market
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com Institute; EAB interviews and analysis.Ultra-Winners Come to Higher Ed? 7
Instead of ”Disruption”, Concentration Reshaped the Market
Pandemic Accelerated UG Enrollment Concentrated Growth in
Flight to Larger Institutions Research, Endowment Funds
Pct. Change in UG Enrollments1, 2012 to 2020
Public 4-Yr Institutions Large Publics Grew Rapidly
Large, More Selective2
$27.6B
+16% In federal research funding
was allocated to the top
Large, Less Selective 50 institutions in FY2020
+19%
(compared to $18.5B for all
other institutions)
Small, (All Selectivity)
+1%
Private 4-Yr Institutions Less-Selective Privates Shrank
-4%
19%
More Selective Of institutions hold 83.7%
of all endowment assets1
Less Selective -14%
1) Of institutions that responded to a national survey
Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment and Admissions Data 2012-2020; Higher Education Research and Development (HERD) Survey, FY11-
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com FY20; Whitford, Emma, “College Endowments Boomed in Fiscal 2021,” Inside HigherEd, Feb. 2022; EAB interviews and analysis.8
Competition, Not Disruption, Determines the Future
Three Competitive Market Forces Reshaping the Landscape:
1 3
Winner-take-most The pool of higher ed
dynamics consumers is shrinking
concentrates the 2
market
The competitive set—for
both students and talent—is
rapidly expanding
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.comThe Fight to Be Chosen 9
New Rules of Competition Defining the Value Proposition
Research Funding is Now a Winner- What partnerships will position us to
Take-Most Game win in a concentrated landscape?
Online Grad Market is More National, What differentiates our institution in a
More Concentrated, and More Elite world of online giants?
Often the Greatest Competition for
How do we sell higher education to
Undergraduates isn’t Another
an increasingly disengaged audience?
Institution—It’s No Institution
Institutions Must Compete as
What does “employer of choice” mean
Much For Talent as They Do
in a nationalizing labor market?
For Students
Winning on Student Experience How do we safeguard the student
Requires Winning on Talent experience amidst talent shortages?
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.comResearch
The Age of Research Giants 10
Size Begets Size as Large Institutions Capture Outsized Growth
R&D Expenditure Change from FY 2011-FY 2020 v. Expenses in 20201
UPenn
$600
$550M UC San
Top 50 Harvard Francisco
Change in Spending FY2011-2020 (Millions)
Growth
Threshold
Yale
19
Bottom Top spend $1B+
92% 8% Cornell UCLA
$400
Arizona State UC San Diego UM
Ann Arbor
50% UW Seattle
spendGraduate Enrollment
A Major Boon for Graduate Enrollments 11
Graduate Enrollments Grew at Fastest Rates in Nearly a Decade Through Pandemic
Year on Year Growth of Total Graduate Enrollments – All 4-Year Institutions
COVID-19
+2.8%
+2.4%
+2.1%
+1.3%
+1.1%
+1.0% +1.0%
+0.9%
+0.5%
-0.1% NSC1
-0.3% Estimate
-0.9%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1) National Student Clearinghouse
Source: EAB analysis of enrollment data from IPEDS Fall Enrollment Surveys 2010-2020, ‘COVID-19 Stay
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com Informed: Fall 2021’, National Student Clearinghouse, Nov. 18, 2021; EAB interviews and analysis.Graduate Enrollment
Newer Giants Loom Over Online Grad Market 12
But Many AAU Universities are Not Far Behind
Institutions With More Than 2,500 Exclusively Online1 Graduate Enrollments, Fall 2019
Total Exclusively Online Graduate Enrollments and Percent From Out-of-State
University Capella Western Walden
of Phoenix University Governors University
University
21,935
41,404
Percent of Exclusively Online Graduate Students from
Bubble size shows
100% George Purdue U.
37,509
Washington U Global 27,356 total online
graduate students
19,526 from out-of-state
80% Johns 26,415 35,276
Hopkins U.
Harvard U Southern
17,839
New Hampshire 36,337
Grand Canyon
Indiana U U. Illinois University 25,052
University Liberty
60% University
Out-of-State
Georgia
Penn.
Tech.
State U.
U. Florida
40% U. Arizona U. Southern Cal.
1 in 5 Online graduate students
attend these seven institutions
20% U. Maryland
Global Campus
More out- More online
of-state enrollments
0%
K 10K 20K 30K 40K 50K
1) Recorded by IPEDS as exclusively distance enrollments.
Total Online Graduate Students
Source: EAB analysis of distance enrollment data
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com from IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2019.Undergraduate Enrollment
Your Biggest Competition May Be No Institution 13
The Non-Consumer Market is Getting
Bigger Every Year
Change in K-12 to College Pipeline (2010 to 2020)
Pandemic to Increase
+7.2%
+8% Increase in HS
Graduation Rate
Nonconsumption
Short-term Disengagement
+6%
+2.3M
+4% Increase in Absent
Change from 2010
Students Grades 8-12
+2%
17%
+0% Of seniors abandoned
college plans
-2%
Long-term Barriers
-4% 25%
Of 3rd graders behind in
reading catch up by end of HS
-6% Decrease in College
Enrollment Rate -4.6%
-8%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: EAB Analysis of American Community Survey Data, McKinsey and Co. (2021), “COVID-19 and
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com education: The lingering effects of unfinished learning”; EAB interviews and analysis.Undergraduate Enrollment
Too Big to Ignore 14
Sizing the Nonconsumption Market Opportunity
10.9M 4.2M 3.1M
Undergrads Adult UGs All Grad
(2- and 4-Yr) 25+ Years Old Students
18-24 Years Old 2/3
Addressable
Market
4-Year 2-Year
8.3M 18-24-year-old
Non-Consumers
32% Of total 18-
24-year-olds
Source: EAB Analysis of American Community Survey Data, NCES Digest of Education Statistics, Tables
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com 303.50, 303.70; EAB interviews and analysis.Talent
Higher Ed Experiences Growing Pains 15
Historically High Hiring Growth Stresses Higher Ed HR
Percent change in total employees from January 2020, seasonally adjusted
1%
15.0%
Other
Information
Higher Ed average
Services
10.0% annual growth
pre-pandemic
5.0% K-12 Recovers Faster
than Higher Ed
K-12 Schools
0.0%
Higher Ed
Hospitals
-5.0%
+10%
Hiring Growth,
-10.0%
-11% 2021-2022
Trough of Labor Loss
-15.0% in December 2020
2020 Jan 2020 May 2020 Sep 2021 Jan 2021 May 2021 Sep 2022 Jan
Source: EAB analysis of the Current Employment Statistics survey from the
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com Bureau of Labor Statistics; EAB interviews and analysisTalent
The Other Side of the Demographic Cliff 16
From Great Resignation to Great Sansdemic Pandemic Losses Largely in
Decline in working age population On-Site, Lower-Level Jobs
Change in jobs from 2019-2021
70% 6M -5% Office/Clerical
Staff
Total estimated
Percent of U.S. Population Aged 15-64
68%
deficit by 2028 Service/
66%
-4% Maintenance
Staff
64%
Technical/Para
62%
60%
+5% -professional
Staff
58%
Forthcoming Wave of Losses
56% Likely in Skilled Fields
Sansdemic: without people
54%
52% 40%
50% HR and IT employees at least
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 “Somewhat Likely” to be looking
for new work in 2022
Observed Median Prediction
Source: EAB Analysis of 2021 CUPA-HR data; “The Demographic Drought: Bridging the Gap in our Labor Force,” April 2021, Emsi
Burning Glass. “EDUCAUSE and CUPA-HR QuickPoll Results: The Misalignment of Preferences and Realities for Remote Work,”
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com Educause Review; EAB Insights and AnalysisStudent Experience
How Staffing Impacts the Student Experience 17
The Talent Crisis in College Counseling… …Has Implications for
Student Success
Recruitment
29-48%
70% Reduction in services
Campus counseling for highest need students
centers with open at institutions with High
positions have had Clinical Loads1
difficulty recruiting staff Engagement
90% Less improvement in
depression, anxiety, and
Of college clinical
general distress (vs. Low
staff are reporting
Clinical Load institution)
burnout
Retention
61% 43-86%
Dropout rate for students
Of college counseling
centers experienced staff with diagnosed mental
turnover in 2020-21 health challenges
1) Clinical Load: # of students attending 1 or more appt + Weekly Source: 2015-2020, AUCCCD; "Provider Burnout in Counselling Centers Due to COVID-19," Mantra Health;
expected clinical hrs when counseling center is fully staffed / # of CCMH 2019 Annual Report; “Mental Health, Substance Use, and Wellbeing in Higher Education,” National
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, 2021 EAB insights and analysis.
counselorsThe Fight to Be Chosen 18
New Rules of Competition Defining the Value Proposition
Research Funding is Now a Winner- What partnerships will position us to
Take-Most Game win in a concentrated landscape?
Online Grad Market is More National, What differentiates our institution in a
More Concentrated, and More Elite world of online giants?
Often the Greatest Competition for
How do we sell higher education to
Undergraduates isn’t Another
an increasingly disengaged audience?
Institution—It’s No Institution
Institutions Must Compete as
What does “employer of choice” mean
Much For Talent as They Do
in a nationalizing labor market?
For Students
Winning on Student Experience How do we safeguard the student
Requires Winning on Talent experience amidst talent shortages?
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com19
How Can We Help?
I’d like follow-up / more information on:
Select all that apply
1 Navigating the Talent Shortage
2 Enhancing Student Experience and Well-Being
3 Winning in Online Graduate Enrollment
4 Tapping into New Sources of Undergraduate Enrollment
5 Succeeding in the Research Funding Market
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com20
Meet the Panel
Dr. Nathan Grawe Adam Pressman Khadish Franklin
Professor, Carleton Partner and Managing Director,
College; Author of The Employee Research Research Advisory
Agile College (2021) & Engagement Services, EAB
Leader, Mercer
©2022 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.comWashington DC | Richmond | Birmingham | Minneapolis
202-747-1000 | eab.com
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