MedCLIVAR Mediterranean CLImate VARiability and predictability - European Science Foundation Program - Centre National de Recherches ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
European Science Foundation Program
MedCLIVAR
Mediterranean CLImate
VARiability and predictabilityAbstract MedCLIVAR is a program which aims to coordinate and promote research on the Mediterranean climate. The main goals include reconstruction of its past evolution, description of patterns and mechanisms characterizing its space-time variability, and identification of the forcing parameters responsible for the observed changes. Emphasis will be put on identification of trends present in observational records as well as on climate predictions under future emission scenarios. The study of the occurrence of extreme events -closely related to climate variability and change- and of climate change impacts is also included in MedCLIVAR. MedCLIVAR within ESF will support a network of scientists, assist them in the development of coordinated research projects, foster the exchange of information, and fund the interchange of researchers (with a priority for young scientists). The Mediterranean climate is under the influence of both tropical and mid-latitude climate dynamics. As a transition zone between these two regimes it is very sensitive to changes of their relative strength and geographical extension. This makes the Mediterranean climate a region which is very sensible to global climate change, as shown by trends and high variability at both short (decadal) and long (millennial) time scale in past records. This is true also for model simulations under future emission scenarios, which, in particular agree on a significant decrease of the precipitation in this region. At the same time, the Mediterranean Sea represents a relatively large mass of water, in a peculiar geographical location: at mid latitude, on the west side of a large continental areas, surrounded by three continents with high mountains ridges, and with a restricted exchange with the Atlantic ocean. Consequently, the Mediterranean climate system presents internal mechanism of variability, as the change of its deep circulation denoted as EMT (Eastern Mediterranean Transient). Moreover, it has been suggested that the role of the Mediterranean basin in the global climate system could be not merely passive. If sufficiently large, changes of the Mediterranean outflow could influence the Atlantic Meridional Overturning (hence a global impact), and those of its surface temperature could affect the climate of the Mediterranean coastal rim and the precipitation over West Africa. Progress in the understanding of the Mediterranean climate has important environmental, societal and economical implications. The Mediterranean region is characterized by large cultural, economical, political, demographic gradients in a situation already under environmental stress (heat waves, highly variable precipitation, limited water resources), where lack of readiness and adequate adaptation strategies could result in critical situations, in particular in connection with the occurrence of extremes and inadequate evaluation of climate change impacts. Keywords Mediterranean, climate, trends, variability, change, extremes, predictions
Scientific objectives
The specific objectives of MedCLIVAR include:
• Reconstruction of past climate variability by the use of all available data: chronicles,
documentary evidences, climate proxies from physical sources, instrumental observations
(whose dense network includes some among the longest existing time series worldwide).
• Understanding the connections between Mediterranean and global climate variability
considering the influence of both the mid-latitude climate patterns (e.g. the North Atlantic
Oscillation, the Eastern Atlantic pattern and other teleconnection patterns) and the tropical
climate patterns (El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Asian and African Monsoons). This
includes the study of the role of these patterns on the occurrence of extreme events in the
Mediterranean area.
• Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the Mediterranean Sea circulation, for sea
level trends and variability, for long-term as well as abrupt changes of water mass
characteristics, for variability of dense water formation processes and of vertical
stratification.
• Assessment of the possible feedbacks of the Mediterranean dynamics on the global climate
system. These include the effect of Mediterranean SST on the export of moisture to regions
around it, on Sahel precipitation, on large scale atmospheric circulation, as well as that of
the salty Mediterranean outflow across Gibraltar strait on the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation.
• Identification of the environmental and climatic effects caused by the strong anthropic
influence at regional scale to which the Mediterranean region has been exposed since
ancient time due to heavy demographic pressure. This topic includes the compilation of a
list of critical parameters for monitoring the evolution of the present climate; identification of
possible gaps of currently deployed monitoring networks and suggestions for their
improvement and extension. The effects of air pollution, aerosols (both anthropogenic and
natural), cirrus contrails from aircrafts and ships on the Mediterranean climate will also be
considered.
• understanding and predicting the response of the Mediterranean climate to the increase of
radiatively active gases and aerosols. This includes the analysis of the effects on the
intensity of extreme and hazardous events (e.g. heat waves, extreme weather, dry
periods), of consequences on regional resources (e.g. water, agriculture, energy
requirement, etc..) and of impacts of climate change in general.
The tasks promoted by MedCLIVAR include collection, quality control and analysis of
observations plus proxies data (documentary and natural) , development and application of
models for describing and understanding the physical processes responsible for the
Mediterranean climate variability and predictability at seasonal, inter-annual, decadal,
centennial time-scales, the occurrence of extremes embedded in these variations, and impacts
of climate change. The tasks of MedCLIVAR can be organized in four groups:
1. Analysis of past climate: construction of quality-controlled paleo-climatic and instrumental
data sets in order to extend the record of past Mediterranean climate variability over the
time-scales of interest and their comparison with paleo simulations including natural and
anthropogenic forcing
2. Systematic observations of the present climate: construction of homogeneous sets of data
for regional climate analysis and comparison with model simulations; analysis of the
observed climate record, detection and attribution of the anthropogenic climate signals at
regional climate scale. Within this task, MedCLIVAR would be particularly interested in
promoting and validating regional reanalysis datasets (e.g. those carried out by ECMWF
and NCEP/NCAR).
3. Understanding climate processes at regional scale: diagnostic use of oceanic and
atmospheric models for the purpose of understanding the processes responsible for the
past and present Mediterranean climate variability.4. Simulation of future climate scenarios: production and analysis of model simulations aiming at identifying the climate response of the Mediterranean regions to future emission scenarios, providing sets of data that could be used for performing regional simulations, creation of an archive of model simulations relevant to the Mediterranean region, and assessing the impact of the projected climate changes 5. Dissemination of MedCLIVAR objectives and results: A main task of MedCLIVAR within ESF would be to make available scientific information on regional climate variability, trends and change to public opinion, authorities and stakeholders in the Mediterranean countries.
Scope of the program
MedCLIVAR within ESF is a program proposed by a group of scientists, mostly from European
countries, which promotes coordination of the large scientific community already engaged in the
Mediterranean climate research. The idea of the MedCLIVAR ESF program has been proposed
during the ESF-LESC Exploratory Workshop on “Mediterranean Climate Variability and
Predictability” held in Rome, may 17-19 2004. The WCRP (World Climate Research Programme)
project, CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) that addresses climate variability and
predictability with a particular focus on the role of ocean-atmosphere interactions, has not included
the Mediterranean region in its initial Principal Research Areas (PRAs). However it has recently
pointed out that given the geographical position of the Mediterranean, its climate could be a good
indicator of climate change at global scale. Because of this sensitivity, and the large amount of
available information, the Mediterranean region is an area where detection and attribution of
climate change can be better carried out and where huge socio-economic consequences could
result from anthropogenic impacts on climate. Progress in the understanding of the Mediterranean
climate has important environmental, societal and economical implications. The combined
population of the countries surrounding the entire Mediterranean basin reaches about 500 Million
people, constituting one of the highest concentration of population in the world. However, there are
enormous North-South and East-West asymmetries in population distribution, and these are
changing unevenly, with high new-born rates mostly concentrated in Middle East and Northern
African countries, precisely those regions already under larger environmental and water resources
stress. Likewise, other important cultural, political and socio-economic issues present large
disparities, particularly between Southern European countries and countries of North African and
Middle East. It is important to provide environmental assessments and climate change predictions
in a situation already under environmental stress where lack of readiness and adequate adaptation
strategies can create critical conflicts.
The purpose of MedCLIVAR is to
• promote research on Mediterranean climate by organizing meetings and workshop,
• help cooperation by favouring exchange of students and researchers
• establishing a network of European, Middle-East and North African institutes and scientists
actively involved in regional climate studies.
In particular MedCLIVAR will help to enhance studies involved in describing climate past evolution,
assessing climate variability, understanding the mechanisms responsible for it, identifying trends
and providing climate prediction in relation to future emission scenarios. MedCLIVAR will,
• assist scientists in developing coordinated research projects,
• favour the exchange of information and expertises;
• provide a source of information to assist governs and local authorities
• provide material and documentation to help public to reach a well formed and substantiated
opinion on climate issues.
5European added value
The study of the Mediterranean climate is particularly relevant to southern European countries, but
it presents important socio-economic implications to the whole European Union. The evolution of
the Mediterranean climate and its variability involve international issues so any research program
would greatly benefit from cooperation with North-African and Middle East countries (which
belong to the Mediterranean region) and also the involvement of non-European scientists.
Measurements, data archives and information on Mediterranean Climate are spread among
facilities, institutions, agencies, and local authorities established in various Mediterranean Nations.
The MedCLIVAR ESF program would facilitate and lead the development of sets of Mediterranean
data by standardizing, quality checking and unifying the presently disperse data. Moreover
MedCLIVAR will promote the development of sets of data describing the climate at the regional
scale and favour the analysis of connections between different areas within the Mediterranean
region. All these tasks would be greatly helped by the international cooperation that the
MedCLIVAR ESF program can offer.
Likewise the sets of data, also expertise on Mediterranean Climate is distributed among many
countries. This is shown also by the participation to the ESF workshop on Mediterranean climate
held in Rome. It is important to recognize and give visibility to these scientists that are the world
experts in this area. By coordinating their science contributions and creating a network of
European institutions, MedCLIVAR can become a world reference of excellence in Mediterranean
climate studies, thus enhancing exchange of information with other countries and bridge the gap
between researchers and authorities. Consequently, a main task of the MedCLIVAR ESF program
would be to make available the scientific information on regional climate variability, trends and
change to the public, policymakers and national authorities of Mediterranean countries.
MEDCLIVAR, as a scientific cooperation project has obtained the CLIVAR endorsement, and this
initiative would be greatly strengthened by this MEDCLIVAR ESF program. Official links with other
international projects (PAGES, MEDEX, ESEAS) have already been established. The ESF
program could provide at European level the funds for training and coordination of young scientists
and steering of research in synergy with such CLIVAR project. Workshop and schools of the ESF
program Workshops could naturally complete (and provide a more focalised character) the
Mediterranean Climate session which has been inserted since 2003 in the program of the EGU
General Assembly (Conv. P.Malanotte, co-convs. P.Lionello, J.Luterbacher, M.Tsimplis). The
publications resulting from the ESF program will be the continuation of the book “Mediterranean
Climate Variability” which is going to be published by Elsevier (Eds. P.Lionello, P.Malanotte,
R.Boscolo) , updating the results presented in the book and extending its content to climate
predictions and climate change impacts.
6Proposed activities and budget
The program duration is planned to be 5 years, during which the following activities will be
undertaken
1. FIVE WORKSHOPS (1 per year)
2. TWO SCHOOLS (at 3rd and 5th year of the program, in connection with the workshops,
targeted to Phd students and post-docs)
3. YOUNG SCIENTISTS EXCHANGE (Grants Program)
4. COORDINATED PUBLICATIONS (workshop proceedings, special issues)
5. INFORMATION (a reference web page with documentation, bibliography, contact points,
link to data archives, and sets of data)
6. STEERING COMMITTEE meetings (in connection with EGU and MedCLIVAR workshops)
The costs of the project include also the program coordination (25% of a full position) , a
secretariat , the development and maintenance of a web-page, and ESF administrative costs
(7.5% of contributions)
estimated costs in Keuros
1st year 2nd year 3° year 4th year 5th year total
Workshop 30 30 30 30 30 150
Schools 60 60 120
Grants for young scientists exchange 72 72 72 72 72 360
website, administration, and secretariat 10 10 10 10 10 50
Steering committee meetings 10 10 10 10 10 50
Publications 5 5 11 5 14 40
Program coordination 10 10 10 10 10 50
ESF administrative costs (7.5% of total) 10.275 10.275 15.225 10.275 15.45 61.5
Total 147.275 147.275 218.225 147.275 221.45 881.5
Steering Committee
The main task of the steering committee, which will meet twice per year, will be to assess the
overall progress of the project. The steering committee will take care of promoting coordination,
summarizing results, favouring the development of common research proposals and synergies with
ongoing (or future) national research programs. Moreover the steering committee should provide
guidelines and establish the required organization of the 5 workshops and 2 schools, organize
activities finalized to their success, and select the grants proposal to be supported by MedCLIVAR.
Each year the results of the meetings will be summarized in an annual report.
The following reporting obligations will be undertaken by the steering committee:
- Reports of the meetings of the steering group
- Annual management reports on the status of the project by the steering committee to ESF
- Annual scientific reports on the status of the Mediterranean climate science, following the
Workshops
7- The development of a MedCLIVAR web page is envisaged to be the main tool for distribution of
information on the program, its implementation, and to exchange results.
The reports will be provided by the program co-ordinator.
MedCLIVAR web page
Besides submission to ESF of periodic report and information, the MedCLIVAR web page is
planned to be a main tool for distribution of information on the program, its advancement, and main
results. The web-page will contain a Mediterranean data archive and links to existing sets of data
with information relevant for the MedCLIVAR program. Periodic reports will also be published on
this page, as well as links to published paper and report on MedCLIVAR related research.
Dissemination of information will aim to reach also public opinion, authorities and stakeholders.
Workshops
An organizing committee , including a local organizer and the chairmen of the sessions, will be
appointed for each workshop. The committee will take care of the organization, and of selecting
and ordering the presentations. Workshops are expected to have a 3 to 4-day duration,
depending on organizational details. The most appropriate action for disseminating the results of
the workshop will be discussed by the steering committee after each workshop. The chairmen,
together with the organizing committee will assist the program coordinator for producing a report of
the workshop.
Each workshop is divided into four parts, according to its objectives:
1. Main discussion, which would be the largest part of the workshop. It will be devoted to the
subject on which the workshop is expected to deliver its main outcomes, reviewing the
present state of knowledge and assessing recent major results
2. Pilot discussion, which is devoted to introducing the main subject of the following workshop,
identifying major gaps and research to be undertaken to fill it. This part is meant to offer
important indications to the grant program and to proponents, as the relevance for main
subject of the next workshop will be used for selecting successful grant applications.
Obviously the subject of the first year workshop cannot be introduced by a pilot discussion.
In the final workshop the pilot discussion will be devoted to discussing the results of the
whole program.
3. Open discussion which will cover the subjects of the MedCLIVAR program not included in
the main and pilot discussions, so to ensure monitoring and discussion of all themes
relevant to MedCLIVAR.
4. Projects discussion, during which existing and ongoing projects will be presented, in order
to promote the dissemination of their results, and ideas for new cooperation can be
proposed.
Each workshop will include presentations on themes considering ecology, agriculture, economics,
health and social aspects. About 20% of the resources of the workshop would be used for
lecturers and students from these fields
According to the objectives of MedCLIVAR the following list of main themes is planned for the 5
scheduled workshops
1. Reconstruction of past Mediterranean climate
2. Connections between Mediterranean and global climate variability
3. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the Mediterranean Sea circulation and for
sea level trends
84. Assessment of the possible feedbacks of the Mediterranean dynamics in the global climate
system and of its influence on other regions. Identification of the environmental and climatic
effects caused by the strong anthropic influence at the regional scale
5. Understanding and predicting the response of the Mediterranean climate to the increase of
radiatively active gases and aerosols.
Therefore, it is expected that after this sequence of workshops (in coordination with the grants
program) all main topics contained in the MedCLIVAR proposal will have been comprehensively
addressed.
Scientists exchange program
Grants are a major tool for achieving the objectives purposed with the MedCLIVAR program. They
are meant to offer the opportunity for exchanging information, sharing data and developing a
common work exploiting the different expertise present in the MedCLIVAR group. Young students
are expected to take advantage of this grant program for gaining expertise in specific issues (e.g.
recent statistical techniques or using the latest generation of a Regional Circulation Model).
Grants will be assigned for exchange of researchers and imply a period (preferably of 5 months) to
be spent in a host institution. Every year about an average number of 8 grants will be selected. A
grant proposal implies the agreement between two Institution supporting MedCLIVAR on a
common research project. The two proponents should not belong to the same country. Proposal
considering external institutions can be considered after positive opinion by the steering
committee. On this respect, 20% of resources and high priority will be devoted to grants
considering implication of climate dynamics on ecosystems, agriculture, water resources,
economic activities, health and social aspects.
The two institutions requesting a grant should write a joint work proposal, identify two members
acting as responsible scientists. The SSG which will then select successful applications and could
form a small commission in order to speed up the selection procedure. The Grant proposal should
be sent to the chairman and to the coordinator of the program. The selection should be completed
3 months after the annual workshop, and, the proposed research program should be completed
before the following MedCLIVAR workshop.
The subject of the research programs should be relevant for the MedCLIVAR objectives and tasks
that are listed in the MedCLIVAR program. Priority will be given for grants specifically contributing
to the core theme of the MedCLIVAR workshop following the conclusion of the grant (see
organization of the workshop). Moreover, preference will be given to grants contributing material
for a MedCLIVAR data archive. The proponents should consider mentioning in their application the
“Pilot” discussion of the previous workshop.
A grant proposal should contain the specification of a target MedCLIVAR workshop and imply the
obligation to present the results of the research during it. After the termination of the grant, a report
should be sent to the MedCLIVAR chairman coordinator. The report should contain a description of
the research carried out and of the results obtained, explain their relevance for the MedCLIVAR
objectives and contain (on a digital support) the dataset eventually provided for the MedCLIVAR
archive.
Schools
The program includes two schools:
1) “trends, and the occurrence of extreme events” (3rd year of the program)
2) “teleconnection and climate change at regional scale” (5th year of the program), which is meant
to be the final event of the program.
9As for the grant and for the workshop program, 20% of the resources will be used for experts and
students from fields such as ecology, water resources, economy, agriculture, medicine.
10Key targets and milestones
Key targets and milestones of the program are the following:
- Annual workshops. Every year a workshop will be organized where researchers can present
their results on the scientific subjects of Med CLIVAR
- summary reports with the main findings of workshops and of research carried out within the
scientists exchange program
- two schools
- 1st school: climate variability, trends, and the occurrence of extreme events (3rd year of the
program)
- 2nd school: teleconnection and climate change at regional scale (5th year of the program)
- school related publications with papers by the lecturers, contributions from students and a
summary addressed to the public and authorities.
- 1st school proceedings: climate variability, trends and the occurrence of extreme events
- 2nd school proceedings: : teleconnection and climate change at regional scale
- development of sets of data, and their distribution through the MedCLIVAR web page
- A final report, which will be produced at the end of the project consisting of a:
a) characterization of climate variability at regional and sub-regional scale
b) assessment of trends and of their significance at regional and sub-regional scale
c) analysis of climate change signal associated to future emission and of their uncertainties
d) suggestions for future work in the MedCLIVAR context
e) an assessment of the influence of MedCLIVAR ESF in facilitating and integrating regional
climate related research
11cooperation and interaction with other international and/or national
programmes and organizations
MedCLIVAR will promote research on Mediterranean climate by organizing meetings and
workshops, help cooperation by favoring exchange of students and researchers, and, more in
general, establish a network of institutes and scientists actively involved in regional climate
research. MedCLIVAR is expected to help establishing partnerships capable of attracting
European funds on the study of the Mediterranean climate.
Links with 4 other major international projects have been officially established. They are CLIVAR,
PAGES, MEDEX, ESEAS. Cooperation with these projects is ensured by the presence of their
representatives in the MedCLIVAR program steering committee. The chairmen and/or directors of
these programs have been added to the MedCLIVAR mailing list.
CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability)
MedCLIVAR, because of its scientific objectives, is connected with the CLIVAR’s working groups
and research areas. Specifically, This ESF program proposal is strictly coordinated with the
MedCLIVAR proposal, endorsed by CLIVAR and will contribute to CLIVAR by developing links with
the VACS (Variability of the African Climate System) panel of CLIVAR, the AMMA (African Monsoon
Multidisciplinary Activities) EU project (also endorsed by CLIVAR and GEWEX), with the Atlantic
Panel of CLIVAR, especially with the Principal Research Areas: North Atlantic Oscillation and
Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. The scientists forming the MedCLIVAR ESF program steering
committee have also supported the MedCLIVAR proposal endorsed by the WCRP CLIVAR project.
PAGES (Past Global Changes)
This link with the Paleo community is meant to consider also paleo aspects of the Mediterranean
Climate. The cooperation has been agreed with H.Wanner, Swiss PAGES director. C. Kull, the
PAGES Science Officer, will act as PAGES representative in MedCLIVAR. MedCLIVAR aims to
improve the understanding of decadal to century scale climate variability at regional scale and is
expected to be a new contribution to the already existing CLIVAR/PAGES intersection.
ESEAS (European Sea Level Service)
MedCLIVAR will use the access to quality-assured sea level data and information provided by
ESEAS and promote the use of such sets of data (including tide gauges and satellite altimetry for
climate studies. The cooperation has been agreed with B.L. Bye director of ESEAS and
P.Knudsen, Chairman of the ESEAS-GB. M.Tsimplis will act as link between ESEAS and
MedCLIVAR
MEDEX (MEDiterranean EXperiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather
in the Mediterranean)
The Mediterranean cyclones that produce high impact weather, which are the main subject of
MEDEX, will be analysed by MedCLIVAR from the climatological point of view. MedCLIVAR will
contribute to the climatology of cyclones and high impact events which is among the most
important target of MEDEX, to the determination of areas which are most sensitive to the variability
and changes of cyclone climatic regimes and to the evaluation of the societal impacts of their
variability and changes. This cooperation has been agreed with A.Jansà, chairman of MEDEX.
P.Alpert will act as link between MEDEX and MedCLIVAR
MedCLIVAR is moreover expected to have a constructive cooperation with national research
programs and projects in climate. A list (not aiming to be complete) includes the Italian National
Program for Climate Research, recently launched, including projects such as VECTOR and
CLIMESCO; the French programs GICC-MedWater and CYPRIM; SIAM (Scenarios Impacts and
12Mitigation Measures), an ongoing project to produce and evaluate climate change scenarios for
Portugal; the Swiss NCCR Climate program and schools; the research promoted by the CLIVAR-
Spain project, the RECLIDO Spanish project, the project “Statistical models of variability and
climate extremes in the Iberian Peninsula” funded by the Spanish Ministry of Education and
Science; the Austrian CLIVALP project; the “research program for Seasonal forecasts for the
Mediterranean region based on statistical modelling”, of the German Research Association. These
programs, and other which will be progressively included in MedCLIVAR, are expected to
contribute to the MedCLIVAR workshops and be inserted in a list permanently updated, which will
be published in the MedCLIVAR webpage. In this way the international visibility of these programs
will be greatly increased and the exchange of information among them will be promoted. Moreover,
many MedCLIVAR participants institutions have been or are involved in European projects, such
as IMPROVE, STARDEX, MICE, PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES. MedCLIVAR will offer the
opportunity for exchange and discussion of results, coordinate research, identify gaps and fill them
with common research (also using the scientists exchange program).
MedCLIVAR will support participation to the EGU activities, namely to the “Mediterranean Climate
Variability” session of the General Assembly, The MedCLIVAR workshops will provide the
possibility to discuss further and more in depth the issues presented at the EGU session, which are
necessarily constrained by the schedule of the General Assembly and need a fully devoted
workshop for an adequate exchange of information and definition of cooperation programs. The
EGU MedCLIVAR session and the ESF MedCLIVAR workshop will integrate and complete each
other.
13List of proposed steering committee members
P.Alpert (Tel-Aviv University, Israel) (acting also as link with MEDEX)
V.Artale (ENEA, Casaccia, Italy)
R.Garcia (Univ. Computense, Spain)
C.Kull (NCCR Climate, acting as PAGES lwith PAGES)
L. Li (LMD/IPSL/CNRS, Universite’ Paris 6, France)
J.Luterbacher (univ. of Bern, Switzerland)
T.Oguz (Middle East Technical Univ. , Turkey)
P.Malanotte (MIT, USA) (acting also as link with CLIVAR)
W.May (Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark)
S.Planton (MeteoFrance, France)
X. Rodo (PBC, Univ. Barcelona, Spain)
A.Theocharis (HCMR, Greece)
R.Trigo (Centro de Geofisica da Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal)
M.Tsimplis (Southampton Oceanographic Centre, UK) (acting also as link with ESEAS)
U.Ulbrich (Freien Universität, Berlin, Germany)
Chair: P.Lionello (Univ. of Lecce, Italy),
Program coordinator: R.Boscolo (LOV, France)
14Supporting Institutions
MedCLIVAR is supported by the following institutions and responsible scientists
Austria
ZAMG: Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, R. Böhm
Bulgaria
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics (DMG), University of Sofia, E.Stanev
National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, J.Staneva
Denmark
Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen, W.May
France
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL/CNRS), Paris, L.. Li
Météo-France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, S.Planton
Observatoire Oceanologique de Villefranche sur Mer, R.Boscolo
University of Bretagne Occidentale, Brest, X. Carton
Germany
GKSS, Forschungszentrum – Institute for Coastal Research, Geesthacht, E.Zorita
Institut für Meteorologie der Freien Universität, Berlin, U.Ulbrich
Meteorological Institute,University of Bonn, H.Paeth
University of Augsburg, Institute of Geography, J.Jacobeit
Greece
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Thessaloniki,
P.Maheras
Hellenic Centre Marine Research / Institute of Oceanography, A.Theocharis
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric
Environment , Athens, C.Zerefos
University of the Aegean, Department of Marine Sciences, Mytilene,V.Zervakis
Israel
Open University of Israel, B.Ziv
Tel Aviv University Weather Research Center (TAU WeRC), P.Alpert
Italy
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – National Research Council of Italy, A.Provenzale
Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council (IBIMET – CNR), M.Baldi
National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics – OGS, B.Manca
National Agency for New Tecnologies, Energy and the Environment (ENEA), V.Artale
University of Lecce, Department of Science of Materials, P.Lionello
University of Milan, Istituto di Fisica Generale Applicata, M.Maugeri
15Morocco
Direction de la Météorologie Nationale of Morocco, O.Baddour
Portugal
Centro de Geofisica, University of Lisboa, R.Trigo
Institute of Oceanography, University of Lisbon, I.Ambar
Romania
Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie, Bucharest, R. Bojariu
Spain
Climate Research Laboratory (LRC-PCB), Catalunya, Barcelona, X.Rodo,
Institute of Chemical and Environmental Research (IIQAB-CSIC), Barcelona, Catalonia,
J.A.Grimalt
University of Almeria, F.S. Rodrigo
University of Barcellona, M.Barriendos
University of Basque Country, Dept. of Applied Physics II J.Saenz
University of Complutense de Madrid (UCM)- Department of Earth Sciences II, R. García-Herrera
University of Complutense de Madrid (UCM-MCAM), Department. Astrophysics and Atmospheric
Sciences, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco
University of Granada (UGR), Atmospheric Physics Research Group. Applied Physics Department,
Granada, Y. Castro-Díez
Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, E.Fisher
Institute of Geography and NCCR Climate, University of Bern, Bern, E.Xoplaki
Tunisia
National Institute of Marine Science and Technology, A.Harzallah
Turkey
Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University , Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Department of Geography, M.
Türkes
Instanbul Technical University Y.Unal
Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University, T.Oguz
UK
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, C.Goodess
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, T.Jung
National Oceanographic Centre Southampton, M.Tsimplis
USA
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston , P.Malanotte-Rizzoli
University of Maryland, N.Zeng
16alphabetic list of participating institutions as listed in the following
description
• Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie
Bucharest, Romania
• Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Meteorology and Climatology.
Thessaloniki, Greece
• Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Department of
Geography
Turkey
• Centro de Geofisica, University of Lisboa
Lisboa, Portugal
• Climate Research Laboratory (LRC-PCB)
Barcelona, Spain
• Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia,
Norwich, UK
• Danish Meteorological Institute
Copenhagen, Denmark
• Department of Meteorology and Geophysics (DMG) University of Sofia
Bulgaria
• Direction de la Météorologie Nationale of Morocco
Morocco
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Reading, UK
• GKSS Forschungszentrum – Institute for Coastal Research
Geesthacht, Germany
• Hellenic Centre for Marine Research / Institute of Oceanography
Athens, Greece
• Istanbul Technical University
Istanbul, Turkey
• Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH
Zürich, Switzerland
• Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – National Research Council of Italy
Italy
• Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council of Italy, Italy
• Institute of Chemical and Environmental Research (IIQAB-CSIC),
Barcelona, Spain
17• Institute of Geography and NCCR Climate, University of Bern
Bern, Switzerland
• Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University
Turkey
• Institut für Meteorologie der Freien Universität
Berlin,Germany
• Institute of Oceanography, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon
Portugal
• Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL)
Paris, France
• Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Boston, USA
• Météo-France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques
France
• Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn
Germany
• National Agency for New Tecnologies, Energy and the Environment (ENEA)
Rome, ITALY
• National Institute of Marine Science and Technology, A.Harzallah
Tunisia
• National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology,
Sofia, BULGARIA
• National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric
Environment
Athens, Greece
• National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics – OGS
Trieste, Italy
• National Oceanography Centre, Southampton
United Kingdom
• Observatoire Oceanologique de Villefranche sur mer
France
• Open University of Israel
Israel
• Tel Aviv University, Weather Research Center (TAU WeRC)
Israel
• University of the Aegean, Department of Marine Sciences
Greece
18• University of Almeria
Spain
• University of Augsburg, Institute of Geography
Germany
• University of Barcelona
Spain
• University of the Basque Country - Dept. of Applied Physics II
Spain
• University of Bretagne Occidentale,
Brest, France
• University of Complutense de Madrid (UCM)- Department of Earth Sciences II
Spain
• University of Complutense de Madrid (UCM-MCAM), Department Astrophysics and
Atmospheric Sciences
Spain
• University of Granada (UGR), Atmospheric Physics Research Group. Applied Physics
Department.
Granada, Spain
• University of Lecce, Department of Science of Materials
Lecce, Italy
• University of Maryland
USA
• University of Milan, Istituto di Fisica Generale Applicata
Italy
• ZAMG: Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics
Vienna, Austria
19Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie
Bucharest, Romania
Romanian Meteorological Service was set up in July 1884, by the decision of the Department of Agriculture,
Industry, Commerce and Domains. The first Director was Dr. Stefan Hepites. This moment marked the
beginning of a systematic, unitary activity at national level. Now, the Romanian Meteorological Service is
represented by Administratia Nationala de Meteorologie (ANM) which is a legal entity directly subordinated
to the Ministry of Water and Environment. ANM (http://www.inmh.ro) carries out activities in meteorology
which include: meteorological short, medium and long range forecasts; meteorological warnings of
hazardous phenomena; dynamic meteorology and aerology studies; atmospheric ozone and pollution
measurements; theoretical and applied climatology research; radar and remote-sensing applications; air-sea
interaction in the Black Sea (e.g. wave models). ANM coordinates the National Meteorological Observations
Network which includes: 151 stations, 3 aerological stations, 7 radar centers, 60 agrometeorological stations
and 8 actinometrical stations. ANM has participated in more than 15 international projects in the Framework
Programmes of European Commission since 1991. The specialists from ANM have been also involved in
international projects supported by the NATO Science Programme and Environmental Protection Agency of
USA.
Contribution to MedCLIVAR and available facilities
ANM has participated at international projects relevant to MedCLIVAR objectives, such as:
ARENA - A Regional Capacity Building and Networking Program to Upgrade Monitoring and Forecasting
Activity in the Black Sea;
MEDHYCOS – a project which develops an automatic hydrometeorological stations network with satellite
transmission;
ENSEMBLES – an integrated project in FP6;
DYNAMITE – a STREP project in FP6 for understanding the dynamics of the coupled climate system;
ACTION 718 - meteorological applications improvement in agriculture.
National programmes support research in the field of climate predictability and global climate change
projection on regional level. ANM is equipped with the modern computers and communication equipment.
Workstations and personal computers are linked in a Novell intranet with adequate software, printers,
scanners, copy machines, phones, fax devices and Internet connection.
Personnel involved
Dr. Roxana Bojariu, responsible scientist
PhD student Liliana Velea; PhD student Rodica Dumitrache; Dr. Mihaela Caian; Dr. Victor Pescaru; Dr.
Constanta Boroneant; Dr. Sorin Cheval; Dr. Aristita Busuioc; Dr. Liana Cazacioc.
Brief CV of responsible scientist
Roxana Bojariu (1962) graduated Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, in 1984. Since 1995 she has
been Principal Scientist at the Research Division from the ANM, Bucharest. She has scientifically co-
coordinated several national research projects in the fields of North Atlantic Oscillation and climate variability
and predictability for the Atlantic - European regions. Dr. Bojariu has participated at several European
projects (e.g. Go West Fellowship/PECO; Human Capital and Mobility/PECO - "Integration of remote
sensing, in situ observation and modelling of North East Atlantic"; the European component of Global Ocean
Ecosystem Dynamics - EuroGLOBEC). She has been involved in international projects, too (e.g. Small
Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change – SPACC/IGBP). She is a lead-author for Chapter 3 of the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Dr. Bojariu was visiting
scientist at Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris (1996,1999), Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géodésie et
Océanographie Spatiale - LEGOS/GRGS, Toulouse (1997,1998,1999), University of Vigo (2000-2001),
International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (2003), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (2004). She
th
is the scientific manager of the Romanian team in the DYNAMITE, a project in the European 6 Framework.
20Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Department of Meteorology and Climatology
Thessaloniki, Greece
The Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the University of Thessaloniki has a long tradition of
work on topics related to climate change, climate variability and scenarios. This work is mostly concerned
with: regional climatology, atmospheric weather regimes classification, statistical data analysis including
multivariate statistical analysis, times series analysis, extreme event studies and the development of climate
change scenarios.
The Department has an effective interdisciplinary research team, which will assure the quality of the
MedCLIVAR project. The researchers to be involved in the MedCLIVAR project have expert knowledge in
the following areas: climatology, meteorology, climate change, objective classification of circulation types,
hydrological analysis, statistical analysis, climate change scenarios and software for climatological analysis.
Contribution to MedCLIVAR and available facilities
In MedCLIVAR, the role of AUTH will be to collect daily timeseries data for Greece and to analyze these data
in order to identify the trends of several climate parameters as well as the magnitude and frequency of
occurrence of extremes.
AUTH will define the most expectable rainfall regime (MERR) over the Greek area, will calculate a rainfall
regime uncertainty (RRU) index and will evaluate it for the study area based on the calculated MERR. Then,
the time series of the RRU index will be analyzed. AUTH will also use the output of GCMs/RCMs in order to
evaluate their ability to simulate climate parameters, extremes and predictor variables for Greece. Also,
AUTH will evaluate several statistical downscaling techniques. Finally, AUTH will apply the more robust
downscaling method to provide scenarios for regional parameters (precipitation, temperature) and extremes
st
for Greece for the end of the 21 century.
Personnel involved
Prof. Panagiotis Maheras : Responsible scientist:
Assoc. Prof. Margaritis Vafiadis (environmental software)
Ass. Prof. Fotini Kolyva-Machera (statistician)
Prof. Haim Kutiel (external collaborator, climatologist)
Dr. Christina Anagnostopoulou (PostDoc, climatologist)
Msc. Konstantia Tolika (PhD student)
Brief CV of responsible scientist
Panagiotis Maheras, Professor of Climatology, is the director of the Department of Meteorology and
Climatology of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece. His PhD thesis (Doctorat d’ Etat), from the
University of Dijon (France), was on the climate of Aegean Sea. He is the author of several papers in
refereed journals (in English and French) on the climate change, atmospheric circulation, extreme events
and empirical or objective classification of circulation types in Mediterranean areas, statistical downscaling
approaches, evaluation of present day and future scenarios from GCMs. He has worked as contractor on the
ADVICE (ENV4-CT95-0129), on the ACCORD (ENV4-CT97-0530), on the STARDEX (EVK2-CT-2001-
00115), on ENSEMBLES (No 505539) and on GABARDINE (No 518118), projects funded by the EC.
Professor Maheras has been President of the International Association of Climatology during the period
1994-2000 and the editor of eight volumes (Vols. 6-13) of the “ Publications de l’ Association Internationale
de Climatologie”.
21Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University
Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Department of Geography
Turkey
The aim of the Faculty of Sciences and Arts is to provide the students with contemporary scientific and
occupational knowledge and enable them to improve their social skills. The Department of Geography was
established in the 1994-1995 educational year. The Department of Geography also has a Master of Art (MA)
Program. Unfortunately, the department of Geography does not have its own labs yet. Because it is a new
and small department, we do not have sufficient computers and computing facilities. However, it is rapidly
developing and could have a GIS class with sufficient computer facilities and a physical geography lab in the
future. On the other, my colleague in this project Dr. Hasan TATLI of ITU has got these kinds of computer
and computing facilities in his faculty in the ITU.
Contribution to MedCLIVAR
This group will contribute to the following subjects: - Observed climate change and variability (time-series
and homogeneity analyses of series of climatic observations); - Synoptic climatology (relationships with
circulation types and atmospheric teleconnection patterns; etc.); - Re-gridding the instruments records over
the Mediterranean basin for constructing gridded level data and homogenous sets of meteorological station
data; - Statistical analysis of climate variability in the Mediterranean region and the global climate; -
Statistical downscaling of precipitation and other climatic parameters in Turkey; - Detection of “climate
change” and its effects on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The Computer facilities of Istanbul Technical
University are available. They include clusters for massive parallel computing and workstations.
Personnel involved
Prof. Murat Türkeş: responsible scientist
Hasan Tatli (Ph.D., Department of Meteorology, ITU)
Faize Sarış (Research Assistant, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University)
Brief CV of responsible scientist
Present position: Head of the Department of Geography, Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Çanakkale Onsekiz
Mart University, Terzioğlu Campus, 17020 Çanakkale, Turkey
Years within the institution: One year, but -in the past- about 23 years in the Turkish State Meteorological
Service (TSMS);
Key qualifications (Relevant to the program): Murat Türkeş was responsible for the Climate Change and
Variability Unit for about eleven years when he was working for the TSMS. He was also responsible for
following up the climate-related scientific and intergovernmental activities implemented by the United Nations
(UN) and its organizations, in particular those by the WMO/UNEP IPCC and the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change.
Areas of Expertize: National Climate Change Activities and Studies dealing with the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol; Sustainable Development and Climate Change;
Observed Climate Variability and Change; Drought and Desertification with respect to Climate and Climatic
Variations; Synoptic Climatology and Meteorology.
22Centro de Geofisica, University of Lisboa
Lisboa, Portugal
The Geophysical Centre of the University of Lisbon (CGUL) is a research group established in 1976. It
covers the fields of Solid Earth Physics, Meteorology and Natural Hazards. Most of the researchers from
CGUL have academic responsibilities and actively collaborate in undergraduate and graduate teaching.
CGUL integrates knowledge from several physics based disciplines to the study of Earth processes. This
combination of research skills shapes the centre and allows the development of interdisciplinary approaches
in a diversity of fundamental areas: Natural Hazards, Global Change, Earth Observation and Earth
Dynamics. Currently there are 22 Researchers (with PhD) working in CGUL and a similar number of post-
graduates students. CGUL keeps a high level of collaboration with the major state laboratories, particularly
IM (Meteorological Institute) that is the institution responsible for meteorology and seismology. Some of our
collaborators are the leading staff of that Institute. The scientific output of CGUL between 1999 and 2001
was evaluated in 2002 by an international panel and rated as Excellent (only 2 out 18 institutions in Earth
Sciences achieved this classification). More information in the web site: http://www.cgul.ul.pt/
Contribution to MedCLIVARP and Available Facilities
CGUL handles a group of 7 facilities: AMC (Atmospheric Modelling Cluster), GPL (Geomagnetism and
Paleomagnetism Lab), EPL (Electromagnetic Prospection Lab), ULISSEIS (University of Lisbon Seismic
Network), ESL (Experimental Seismology Lab), OBS Lab, and also supports some fixed seismic stations.
Within MedCLIVAR it will be possible to use computing resources from the Atmospheric Modelling Cluster,
mostly to run regional or mesoscale atmospheric models. Moreover, CGUL possesses a considerable
number of working stations and late generation PCs where a vast amount of analysis can be performed
CGUL or invited researchers within the MedCLIVAR framework.
CGUL has been strongly involved with the SIAM (Science Impacts and Adaptation Measures) project that
produced, in 2002, the first integrated assessment of Portuguese climate change (Santos et al 2002),
gathering observations (direct and reanalysed) and climate change scenarios and using them to drive impact
models in different areas. This study was followed by a similar initiative (SIAM II) with updated results,
particularly with integrated assessment developed for certain river basins and Atlantic Islands.
Understanding and predicting climate change will be one of the main areas of Earth Science research in the
next decades. In the last few years CGUL has increased its involvement in this area of research, taking profit
of the availability of open access climate databases (such as the NCEP reanalysis) and scenarios (e.g. the
Hadley Centre simulations). That trend will be reinforced in the next years, as the new ERA-40 reanalysis
becomes available and a new generation of climate simulations is ready.
Names of responsible scientist and involved personnel
Dr. R. Machado Trigo (responsible scientist)
Dra. Isabel Franco Trigo
Prof. Carlos da Camara
Prof. Pedro Miranda
Dra. Maria Antónia Valente
CV of responsible scientist
Ricardo Machado Trigo is, since 2002, a Senior Research Associate at the Geophysical Centre (CGUL),
Faculty of Sciences, at Univ. of Lisbon. He is also a Reader of Physics at the Lusófona University (Lisbon).
Over the last 10 years he has devoted his research activity to the following topics: a) Climate variability and
associated large-scale circulation modes, with a special emphasis to the North Atlantic Oscillation, b)
Development of climate change scenarios for the Iberian Peninsula (IP), including impact studies on water
resources and human health, c) Statistical methods (including neural-networks and wavelets) applied to
hydrology and meteorology. Since 2002 he has been the scientific coordinator of a large project funded by
the Portuguese Power Transportation Company (REN), to develop rainfall-runoff models for specific
hydroelectric dams. Over the last years he has maintained fruitful collaborations with the Climatic Research
Unit (Univ. of East Anglia) a world class leading institution in climate research. Furthermore, important
partnerships have been forged with two Spanish groups based in Granada and Complutense (Madrid)
universities. He has published (or in press) 18 papers indexed in SCI.
Qualifications: Bsc in Physics, Msc in Meteorology and PhD in Climatology (Univ. East anglia).
23Climate Research Laboratory (LRC-PCB)
Barcelona, Catalunya (Spain)
The LRC-PCB was settled at the Barcelona Science Park in 2003, evolved from the CIAG and the CRG at the
University of Barcelona since 1993, and it is now formed by an interdisciplinary team of scientists. The LRC-PCB
has a remarkable experience in the analysis and modeling of climate variability from regional to global scales. The
study of interannual and longer-term frequency components of the climate system using model results,
instrumental data, or proxy records is one of the central research topics in the activity of LRC-PCB. Specifically,
the group has been trying to understand the relationship between Mediterranean climate and tropical dynamics, in
particular ENSO, as well as the interaction and genesis of midlatitude climate variability in the context of transitory
impacts and threshold triggered effects. Some work has also been done to assess future projections of
mediterranean climate under projected EGE scenarios by means of both empirical and dynamical approaches. We
are also engaged in developing new statistical and mathematical tools to better describe the nonlinear nature of
some important climatic processes and the signature they lay on natural and human systems. In particular, we are
actively involved in the study of the influence of climate and global change in the dynamics of epidemic outbreaks
(essentially cholera in Bangladesh and also other infectious diseases in SE Asia and Central Africa) and in the
emergence of new and old diseases, as well as in the relationship between heatwaves and mortality. The LRC-
PCB currently coordinates and/or participates in a series of national, european and mainly american projects (two
NOAA/NSF projects) in collaboration with other groups, as well as in two international research networks. Our
group also published in the last five years more than twenty papers in SCI journals, and participates in training and
education activities.
Contribution to MedCLIVAR and available facilities
In addition to facilities common to most research centers in terms of computing capacity, labs and working
space, the main value of our group is the people that form the CRL and the varying expertise they have.
Regarding specific topics of interest to MedCLIVAR, we are engaged in the development of new
parameterisations to improve the atmosphere-ocean coupling processes dominating ENSO dynamics and
can therefore contribute to MedCLIVAR with our experience on working with ENSO and from our expertise in
climate diagnosis, modelling of climate-disease relationships, and the development and implementation of
new statistical and mathematical tools (e.g., SDC and SDCMAPS). The LRC-PCB has notable expertise on
data analysis, coupled modelling techniques and/or on regional models (mainly MM5). Our lab is in the
process of implementing this high-resolution regional model among our facilities which together with the new
version of CSM currently operated at the LRC-PCB, may help improving the regional representation over
mid-latitudes and the NAE region in particular, essentially as a response to tropical forcings. LRC also
studies the role of climate on the carbon cycle, operating a network of 6 high towers for sampling air at the
boundary layer, runs a routine tropospheric aircraft profile over NE Spain and operates the Atmospheric Lab
within the LRC-PCB aimed at high-quality EGE gases quantification.
Personnel involved
Responsible scientist: Prof. Xavier Rodó
Other scientists: Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias, Josep-Anton Morguí Castelló, Ben Cash, F. Justino, A. Font.
Brief CV of responsible scientist
Dr. Xavier Rodó is a senior scientist leading the Climate Research Laboratory (LRC) at the PCB-University of
Barcelona. The bulk of his research centers on climate diagnosis and modelling, mainly for ENSO and in particular
in relation to tropical climate variability and tropical-extratropical interactions modulated by ENSO dynamics. In this
area, his research centered in particular in the North Atlantic European sector and the Mediterranean (western)
regions and the role of the tropical atmospheric bridge in the connection with the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. He
also studies interactions between ENSO and the PDO. Another important topic deals with the development of new
diagnosis tools for the determination of transitory forcings in the climate system. We indeed have a very vigorous
program in the research of energy transfer between climate and the dynamics of infectious diseases in southeast
Asia and central Africa and on how these external forcings structure epidemics. Understanding the interplay of
external and internal forcings on the dynamics of infectious diseases linked to climate variability and change is one
of his main topics of research. He hold his PhD degree at the University of Barcelona in 1997, exerted as
associate professor in advanced statistics at the UPC and lectured on climate diagnosis at the UB. He performed
several postdoctoral stages at Princeton, COLA, GATECH and Scripps. He participates/ed in ten competitive
research projects in the last five years and within this interval published twenty scientific papers in diverse journals,
such as Science, PNAS, Climate Dynamics, J. Climate and Nature.
24You can also read
