GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council

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GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council
GAM REPORT 2020   | 1
GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council
Acknowledgements
                                                                   REPORT PREPARATION TEAM
                                                                             Braimoh Bello
                                                                           Pedzisai Ndagurwa
                                                                             Seyi Omogiate
                                                                       Layout design: Joshua Ekeh

                   2020 GLOBAL AIDS                                         SANAC TEAM
                  MONITORING REPORT                                           Billia Luwaca
                                                                            Lifutso Motsieloa
                                                                           Zwebuka Khumalo
                                                                            Anthony Odama

                                                                       SUGGESTED CITATION
                                                    Bello B, Ndagurwa P, Omogiate S, Luwaca B,  Motsieloa L. Republic
                                                       of South Africa: 2020 Global AIDS Monitoring Report (2021).
                                                                      Johannesburg: CESAR; 2021.

                         REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA

                                                             Harrow Court 2, Isle of Houghton Office Park,
                                                         36 Boundary Rd, Houghton Estate, Johannesburg, 2198
                                                                        www.cesar-africa.com

2 |   Acknowledgements
GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council
Table of                                                                                                                                                             List of
Contents                                                                                                                                                             Tables
Acknowledgements   ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 2             Table 1: Prevention of mother-to-child transmission performance indicators
                                                                                                                                                                     in South Africa, 2017–2019�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������17
Table of Contents  �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 3

List of Tables  ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 3   Table 2: Mother-to-child transmission rates of HIV in South Africa, 2018–2020�����������������������17

List of Figures  ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 4    Table 3: Number of new HIV infections in South Africa by sex and age, 2016–2020���������������21

Abbreviations  ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5      Table 4: Number of new HIV infections in South Africa by sex and age, 2016–2020���������������22

Introduction  ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 6    Table 5: Number of male and female condoms distributed in South Africa, 2018–2020��������24
Summary of Progress Towards Commitments  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 8
                                                                                                                                                                     Table 6: South Africa Family Planning 2020 core indicators performance, 2018–2020�����������29
Overview of the Epidemic HIV/AIDS Epidemic in 2020  ����������������������������������������������������������������� 10
                                                                                                                                                                     Table 7: Number of South Africans social grants by grant type 2018/19 and 2019/2020������32
Commitment 1  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 13
                                                                                                                                                                     Table 8: Functionality of community engagement through provincial and district
Commitment 2  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16           AIDS councils in South Africa, 2021��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������35

Commitment 3  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 20           Table 9: South Africa Government expenditure (amount and percentage)
                                                                                                                                                                     on HIV/AIDS by program����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������38
Commitment 4  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 25

Commitment 5  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 28           Table 10: HIV Funding by entities for three fiscal year periods������������������������������������������������������39

Commitment 6  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 31           Table 11: South Africa’s total expenditure (amount and percentage)
                                                                                                                                                                     on HIV/AIDS by program����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������40
Commitment 7  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34

Commitment 8  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 37

Commitment 9  ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 41

Commitment 10  �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 43

Discussion and Recommendations  ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 46

Conclusion  ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 50

References  ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 51

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      GAM REPORT 2020               | 3
GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council
List of
Figures
Figure 1: Trends in HIV prevalence in South Africa, 2016–2020���������������������������������������������������������������������������10         Figure 19: Trends in the numbers of gender-based offences reported to SAPS, 2016/17 to 2020/21����� 26

Figure 2: Prevalence of HIV in males and females in South Africa, disaggregated by age, 2020����������������� 10                                   Figure 20: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 5������������������������������������������������������28

Figure 3: Trends in HIV prevalence among AGYW and ABYM, 2016–2020��������������������������������������������������������10                        Figure 21: Knowledge about HIV prevention among young people aged 15–24 years���������������������������������� 29

Figure 4: Prevalence of HIV in South Africa by district, 2020���������������������������������������������������������������������������������11   Figure 22: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 6������������������������������������������������������31

Figure 5: Prevalence of HIV in South Africa by province, 2016 and 2020����������������������������������������������������������11                 Figure 23: Social Protection in South Africa���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32

Figure 6: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 1���������������������������������������������������������13                  Figure 24: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 7������������������������������������������������������34

Figure 7: Trends in number of PLHIV in South Africa, 2016–2020�����������������������������������������������������������������������14            Figure 25: NACOSA primary focus areas in the HIV/AIDS and TB response effort������������������������������������������ 35

Figure 8: South Africa’s achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets by 2020���������������������������������������������� 14                       Figure 26: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 8������������������������������������������������������37

Figure 9: Trends in AIDS-related deaths in South Africa, 2016–2019�����������������������������������������������������������������14              Figure 27: Total expenditure on HIV and TB in South Africa, 2017/18 – 2019/20������������������������������������������� 37

Figure 10: HIV testing volumes and positivity rate among adults in South Africa, 2016–2020��������������������� 15                                 Figure 28: Breakdown of ART cost by item, 2019/20�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������38

Figure 11: HIV testing volumes and positivity rate among children in South Africa, 2016–2020����������������� 15                                   Figure 29: Percentage distribution of funder’s contributions to HIV intervention categories, 2019/20���� 39

Figure 12: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 2������������������������������������������������������16                    Figure 31: Regional ART unit cost comparison����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������40

Figure 13: Number of HIV PCR tests conducted at birth (less than 7 days) in South Africa, 2016–2020��� 16                                          Figure 30: Financial gap in HIV funding in South Africa (2017–2020)������������������������������������������������������������������40

Figure 14: Quarterly number of congenital syphilis cases in South Africa, 2018–2020��������������������������������� 18                            Figure 32: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 9������������������������������������������������������41

Figure 15: Number of infections transmitted from mother to child at birth and after birth, 2016–2020� 19                                           Figure 33: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 10����������������������������������������������������43

Figure 16: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 3������������������������������������������������������20                    Figure 34: Co-management of TB and HIV, 2016–2020�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������43

Figure 17: South Africa’s legal and policy environment for Commitment 4������������������������������������������������������25                    Figure 35: TB/HIV co-infected client on ART rate, 2015–2018������������������������������������������������������������������������������44

Figure 18: External and internalized stigma among PLHIV, 2020/2021�������������������������������������������������������������26

4 |     List of
GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council
Abbreviations                                                             NASA
                                                                          NACOSA
                                                                                     National AIDS Spending Assessment
                                                                                     Networking HIV & AIDS Community of Southern Africa

and Acronyms
                                                                          NDMP       National Drug Master Plan
                                                                          NDoH       National Department of Health
                                                                          NDP        National Development Plan
                                                                          NGO        Non-Governmental Organization
AGYW          Adolescent Girls and Young Women
                                                                          NHI        National Health Insurance
AIDS          Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
                                                                          NICD       National Institute of Communicable Diseases
ANC           Antenatal Care
                                                                          NHLS       National Health Laboratory Service
ART           Antiretroviral Therapy
                                                                          NSP        National Strategic Plan for HIV, TB and STIs
ARV           Antiretroviral
                                                                          OST        Opioid Substitution Therapy
AYP           Adolescents and Young People
                                                                          OVC        Orphans and Vulnerable Children
CBO           Community-Based Organization
                                                                          PCR        Polymerase Chain Reaction
CCMDD         Centralized Chronic Medicines Dispensing and Distribution
                                                                          PEPFAR     United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief
CESAR         Centre for Statistical Analysis and Research
                                                                          PHC        Primary healthcare
CHC           Community Health Center
                                                                          PLHIV      People living with HIV
CHW           Community Healthcare Worker
                                                                          PMTCT      Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission
COP           Country Operational Plan
                                                                          PrEP       Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis
COVID-19      Coronavirus Disease 2019
                                                                          PSE        Population size estimate
CSO           Civil Society Organizations
                                                                          PWID       People Who Inject Drugs
DBE           Department of Basic Education
                                                                          PWUD       People Who Use Drugs
DHET          Department of Higher Education and Training
                                                                          SABSSM     South African National HIV Prevalence Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey
DHIS          District Health Information System
                                                                          SAG        South African Government
DOJ&CD        Department of Justice and Constitutional Development
                                                                          SAHRC      South African Human Rights Commission
DSD           Department of Social Development
                                                                          SANAC      South African National AIDS Council
EID           Early Infant Diagnosis
                                                                          SAPS       South African Police Service
eMTCT         Elimination of Mother-to-Child Transmission
                                                                          SASSA      South African Social Security Agency
FSW           Female Sex Workers
                                                                          SDG        Sustainable Development Goal
GAM           Global AIDS Monitoring
                                                                          SRH        Sexual and Reproductive Health
GBV           Gender-Based Violence
                                                                          SMART      Specific, measurable, achievable, realistic and time-bound
GDP           Gross Domestic Product
                                                                          SRD        Social Relief of Distress
Global Fund   Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
                                                                          Stats SA   Statistics South Africa
GPS           Governance, Public Safety and Justice survey
                                                                          STI        Sexually Transmitted Infections
HIV           Human Immunodeficiency Virus
                                                                          SWEAT      Sex Worker Education and Advocacy Task Force
HTC           HIV Testing and Counselling
                                                                          TB         Tuberculosis
IPV           Intimate Partner Violence
                                                                          Thembisa   Thembisa Model Version 4.4
LGBTI         People with Disabilities, Other Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual,
                                                                          Model
              Transgender and Intersex
                                                                          TPT        Tuberculosis preventive therapy
MDR-TB        Multi-drug-resistant TB
                                                                          UN         United Nations
M&E           Monitoring and evaluation
                                                                          UNAIDS     Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
MMC           Medical Male Circumcision
                                                                          UTT        Universal Test and Treat
MSM           Men who have sex with men
                                                                          WHO        World Health Organization
MTCT          Mother-to-Child Transmission
MTEF          Medium Term Expenditure Framework

                                                                                                                                                      GAM REPORT 2020      | 5
GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council
Introduction                                                    PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2020 FAST-TRACK                           The 2020 GAM report is important for several reasons. First,
                                                                COMMITMENTS AND EXPANDED TARGETS TO END                        it is the year by which countries should have achieved the
                                                                AIDS                                                           90-90-90 targets. Second, it serves as the baseline for the
2016 UNITED NATIONS POLITICAL DECLARATION                       The 2020 Fast-Track commitments and expanded targets to
                                                                                                                               revised Global AIDS Strategy 2021–2030, and for moving
ON ENDING AIDS                                                  end AIDS resulted from the UNAIDS’ acknowledgement that
                                                                                                                               towards the global AIDS targets set for 2025 and 2030.

The 2016 Political Declaration on Ending AIDS: On the Fast-                                                                    Third, it was a peculiar year for HIV services due to the
                                                                without a rapid scale-up of HIV services, the epidemic will
Track to Accelerate the Fight against HIV and to End the AIDS                                                                  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In January
                                                                continue to outstrip the response. The Fast-Track approach
Epidemic by 2030 was adopted at the United Nations (UN)                                                                        2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the
                                                                means working towards the 10 commitments and reaching
General Assembly High-Level Meeting on AIDS in June                                                                            novel coronavirus an international public health emergency
                                                                the following key milestones by 2020.
2016. The Declaration, built on three previous five-yearly                                                                     and, on 11 March 2020, it declared it a pandemic.1 An
                                                                1.   Reduce the number of people newly infected with HIV       important part of the 2020 GAM report is the impact of
declarations (2001, 2006 and 2011), sets the world on the
                                                                     to fewer than 500 000 globally by 2020                    the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated lockdown
Fast-Track strategy to end the HIV/AIDS epidemic by 2030.
Through the Declaration, all signatory countries, including     2.   Reduce the number of people dying from AIDS-related       regulations on the HIV response in the country

South Africa, agreed to a laudable agenda to accelerate              causes to fewer than 500 000 globally by 2020
efforts towards ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030.               3.   Eliminate HIV-related stigma and discrimination by        DATA SOURCES AND INCLUSIVENESS OF THE
                                                                     2020                                                      REPORT
The 2016 Political Declaration on Ending AIDS focuses on
                                                                The cornerstone strategy for reaching these milestones is
the five-year period ending 2021. In 2016, the international                                                                   The South African National AIDS Council (SANAC), which
                                                                the 90-90-90 targets, which requires countries to ensure
community reviewed progress towards reaching the 2020                                                                          manages the country’s multi-sectoral response to the
                                                                that by the end of 2020, 90% of people living with HIV know
Fast-Track commitments and expanded targets to end                                                                             HIV epidemic, coordinated the 2020 GAM report, as
                                                                their HIV status; 90% of people who know their HIV status
AIDS, highlighting that a successful AIDS response should                                                                      with previous GAM reports. Technical experts from the
                                                                are receiving antiretroviral treatment; and 90% of people on
be measured by the achievement of concrete, time-bound                                                                         Centre for Statistical Analysis and Research (CESAR)
                                                                treatment have a suppressed viral load.
targets. The 2016 Declaration calls for careful monitoring                                                                     synthesized and triangulated diverse data for evidence
of progress in implementing commitments and requires            The annual Global AIDS Monitoring (GAM) report is              of progress towards the Fast-Track commitments and
countries to issue annual progress reports.                     the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) document that              led the report writing. While short term trends for key
                                                                provides evidence of country progress towards the Fast-        indicators focused on the last three years (2018 to 2020),
                                                                Track commitments and expanded targets. The report             interesting comparative analyses between 2016 and 2020
                                                                describes the epidemic and status of the national response,    were also conducted. Various existing source documents
                                                                identifies challenges and constraints, and makes bold          were accessed and critically appraised. These included
                                                                recommendations to accelerate the achievement of targets.      government departments’ annual reports; relevant national
                                                                The 2020 GAM report contains South Africa’s monitoring         policies, strategies and guidelines; data from national
                                                                data and narrative for the year ending December 2020.          surveys and bio-behavioral surveys; data from projection
                                                                The report is important to the country and its local and       models (Thembisa and Naomi models); the country’s
                                                                international partners in that it documents the country’s      national health management information system; program
                                                                progress, so far, towards signed commitments. It is also       data; and scientific publications.
                                                                important to the country for advocacy and resource
                                                                mobilization from local and international partners.

6 |   Introduction
GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council
STATUS AT A GLANCE                                                                 POLICY AND PROGRAMMATIC RESPONSE                                           The NSP 2017–2022 involved multi-sectoral partnerships
                                                                                                                                                                and embraced innovative interventions with community-
                                                                                     South Africa’s National Strategic Plan for HIV, STIs and
                                                                                                                                                                centered delivery in a supportive legal and policy
                                                                                     TB (2017–2022), also written as “NSP 2017–2022”, is the
  ON THE FAST-TRACK, NSP 2017–2022                                                                                                                              environment. The NSP 2017–2022 identifies the
                                                                                     fulcrum of the country’s response to the HIV/AIDS and TB
              To significantly reduce new HIV infections                                                                                                        heterogeneity of the epidemic and sets plans to intensify
                                                                                     epidemics. The NSP 2017–2022 is largely aligned to the
              To increase the number of people on ART                                                                                                           efforts in geographical areas and sub-populations
              To decrease HIV-related deaths in the country                          UNAIDS 2016 Political Declaration, aiming to significantly
                                                                                                                                                                disproportionately affected by the epidemic. Also reflected
                                                                                     reduce new HIV infections, increase the number of people
                                                                                                                                                                in the NSP 2017–2022 is the 2016 Political Declaration call
                                                                                     on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and decrease HIV-related
                                                                                                                                                                for a successful AIDS response to be measured by specific,
                                                                                     deaths in the country, among other targets. Furthermore,
                                                                                                                                                                measurable, achievable, realistic and time-bound (SMART)
                                                                                     the NSP 2017–2022 contains the strategic framework for
                                                                                                                                                                indicators.
                                                                                     achieving targets set in the period under review.

                         1                 2                        3                         4                       5                 6                   7                     8                  9                10
COMMITMENTS

                      Ensure that 30     Eliminate new        Ensure access to             Eliminate gender    Ensure that 90%       Ensure that 75%     Ensure that at       Ensure that HIV     Empower            Commit to
                      million people     HIV infections       combination prevention       inequalities and    of young people       of people living    least 30% of all     investments         people living      taking AIDS
                      living with HIV    among children       options, including pre-      end all forms       have the skills,      with, at risk of    service delivery     increase to US$     with, at risk of   out of isolation
                      have access        by 2020 while        exposure prophylaxis,        of violence and     knowledge and         and affected by     is community-        26 billion by       and affected       through people-
                      to treatment       ensuring that        voluntary medical male       discrimination      capacity to protect   HIV benefit from    led by 2020          2020, including     by HIV to know     centred systems
                      through            1.6 million          circumcision, harm           against women       themselves from       HIV-sensitive                            a quarter for HIV   their rights       to improve
                      meeting the        children have        reduction and condoms,       and girls, people   HIV and have          social protection                        prevention and      and to access      universal health
                      90–90–90           access to HIV        to at least 90% of people    living with         access to sexual      by 2020                                  6% for social       justice and        coverage,
                      targets by 2020    treatment by         by 2020, especially          HIV and key         and reproductive                                               enablers            legal services     including
                                         2018                 young women and              populations by      health services                                                                    to prevent         treatment for
                                                              adolescent girls in high-    2020                by 2020, in order                                                                  and challenge      tuberculosis,
                                                              prevalence countries                             to reduce the                                                                      violations of      cervical cancer
                                                              and key populations—                             number of new HIV                                                                  human rights       and hepatitis B
                                                              gay men and other men                            infections among                                                                                      and C
                                                              who have sex with men,                           adolescent girls
                                                              transgender people, sex                          and young women
                                                              workers and their clients,                       to below 100 000
                                                              people who inject drugs                          per year
                                                              and prisoners

  Achieved by
  end 2020?

  If not,
  likely to be
  achieved by
  end 2025?

              Yes          No

                                                                                                                                                                                                             GAM REPORT 2020     | 7
GAM REPORT 2020 | 1 - South African National AIDS Council
Summary of Progress                                                     Commitment 3: Ensure access to combination                            PLHIV still exist. The overall levels of internalized and external
                                                                        prevention options, including pre-exposure                            stigma in 2020 were 23.4% and 15.4%, respectively. Members of
                                                                                                                                              key populations commonly experience stigmatization and poor
                                                                        prophylaxis, voluntary medical male circumcision,
Towards Commitments                                                     harm reduction and condoms, to at least 90%
                                                                        of people by 2020, especially young women and
                                                                                                                                              treatment when accessing public healthcare.

                                                                                                                                              South Africa has one of the highest intimate partner violence (IPV)
                                                                        adolescent girls in high-prevalence countries                         rates in the world, with 29% of ever-married or partnered women
Commitment 1: Ensure that 30 million people
                                                                        and key populations — gay men and other men                           aged 15-49 years reporting physical or sexual violence from a
living with HIV have access to treatment through
                                                                        who have sex with men, transgender people, sex                        male intimate partner in the past 12 months. South African Police
meeting the 90–90–90 targets by 2020                                                                                                          Service (SAPS) data suggest that IPV increased during the COVID-19
                                                                        workers and their clients, people who inject drugs
In 2020, there were 7.9 million people living with HIV (PLHIV) in                                                                             pandemic (2020). However, these reported increases may not be
                                                                        and prisoners
South Africa. Of those, 92% knew their HIV status. Of those who                                                                               fully reflected in the national crime statistics for the 2020/21 period
knew their status, 72% were on ART, and of those on ART, 91%            Due to the country’s HIV response efforts, HIV incidence in South
                                                                                                                                              because of increased under-reporting by victims. Despite this grim
were virologically suppressed. Thus, by 2020, South Africa had          Africa has been on the decline since 2016. In 2016, the total
                                                                                                                                              picture, there have been developments in a positive direction, such
achieved only the first of the three targets since the achievement of   number of new HIV infections in the country was 285,000. This
                                                                                                                                              as the introduction of five policy documents in 2019 and 2020; an
the third target is conditional on achieving the second target.         declined by 24% to 216,000 in 2020. It is also good news that the
                                                                                                                                              increased number of convictions for sexual offences in 2019 and
                                                                        declining HIV incidence is observable in both genders and all age
                                                                                                                                              2020; and the 2020 commitment by the media to fight Gender-
The country has continued to revise the policy environment for HIV      groups, with the fastest decline during this period seen among
                                                                                                                                              Based Violence (GBV).
treatment in the bid to achieve these targets, with the most recent     adolescent boys and young men (ABYM).
policy revisions released in 2019. The 2019 guidelines introduced
an ART formulation that will reduce viral resistance and side effects   However, it should be stated that the decline is not rapid enough     Commitment 5: Ensure that 90% of young people
and increase viral load suppression. Also, to offset the negative       to achieve the NSP target of less than 100,000 new infections by      have the skills, knowledge and capacity to protect
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on this commitment, the country         2021/22. This is because the country’s prevention program has         themselves from HIV and have access to sexual
embarked on initiatives to increase the number of PLHIV who             not been optimum. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake is           and reproductive health services by 2020, in
initiate treatment. While the 90-90-90 targets were not achieved by     low. Condom use is abysmally low, notably among adolescents           order to reduce the number of new HIV infections
                                                                        and young people (AYP). Key population programs have primarily
2020, the country should work hard to achieve them by 2022, while                                                                             among adolescent girls and young women to
pursuing the updated UN 95-95-95 targets set for 2025.                  been left in the hands of civil society and ABYM are often left out
                                                                                                                                              below 100,000 per year
                                                                        of community prevention programs. And then, in 2020, there was
                                                                        the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. For example,            Although HIV incidence has been declining among young people in
Commitment 2: Eliminate new HIV infections                              there was a drastic reduction in the number of voluntary medical      South Africa, the incidence rate remains high. In 2020, adolescent
among children by 2020 while ensuring that 1.6                          male circumcisions (MMCs) from 600,000 in 2019/20 to 130,000 in       girls and young women (AGYW), i.e., 15–24-year-old females, had
million children have access to HIV treatment by                        2020/21.                                                              the highest HIV incidence rate by age group in South Africa (1.35%),
2018                                                                                                                                          contributing 56,974 to the total 216,008 new infections in the
                                                                        It is unlikely that the country can achieve the current NSP target    country in 2020. This means that there were more than 1,000 new
South Africa did extremely well to drastically reduce new HIV
                                                                        for HIV incidence by 2021/22. However, if the government can          HIV infections among AGYW, weekly, in 2020. Among adolescent
infections among children by 2020. The aforementioned 2019
                                                                        prioritize increasing comprehensive HIV knowledge among AYP           boys and young ABYM, i.e.,15–24-year-old males, there were 16,453
revisions to the HIV treatment guidelines also aimed to reduce
                                                                        and increasing PrEP and MMC uptake in the general population,         new infections in 2020.
unintended pregnancies and arrest the currently high rate of
                                                                        the target may be achieved by 2025. The role of high ART coverage
postpartum mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV. Despite
                                                                        in reducing HIV incidence in the general population should also be    Despite these high rates of HIV incidence among AYP, the country
the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of children tested at birth and
                                                                        highlighted.                                                          still lags significantly in ensuring that 90% of young people have
the early infant diagnosis (EID) rate increased annually from 2016
                                                                                                                                              the skills, knowledge and capacity to protect themselves from HIV
to 2020. Furthermore, the percentage of HIV-positive pregnant
                                                                                                                                              infection. The most recent data (2017 and 2019) showed that less
women who received antiretroviral (ARV) medicines to prevent            Commitment 4: Eliminate gender inequalities
                                                                                                                                              than 50% of AYP have the necessary skills, knowledge and capacity
MTCT of HIV increased from 2018 to 2020. These efforts resulted         and end all forms of violence and discrimination                      to protect themselves from HIV. Thus, Commitment 5 was not
in the continuous decline of the MTCT rate of HIV at birth, at 12       against women and girls, people living with HIV                       achieved by 2020.
months, and at 18 months: 0.8%, 1% and 3.5%, respectively, in           and key populations by 2020
2020. However, the high rate of postpartum MTCT of HIV needs to                                                                               However, South Africa continues to look for ways to achieve
                                                                        Despite being armed with a cocktail of human rights legislation and
be addressed to complete the admirable success the country has                                                                                this commitment in a bid to realize the vision of the National
                                                                        policy documents to build a progressive society; the country is far
achieved towards this commitment.                                                                                                             Development Plan (NDP) of an HIV-free generation of under-20s
                                                                        from achieving this commitment. Discriminatory attitudes towards

8 |   Summary of Progress Towards Commitments
by 2030. In pursuance of this, the country introduced the National      community-led monitoring of HIV and TB services reflects the              the country is yet to fully empower its people to know their rights
Adolescent and Sexual Reproductive Health and Rights Strategy           widening involvement of civil society in the national response. The       and to access justice and legal services to prevent and challenge
(2019–2030) in 2019 and the National Youth Policy 2020–2030             Networking HIV & AIDS Community of Southern Africa (NACOSA)               violations of those rights. The most recent South Africa index
in 2020. By implementing these policies and intentionally taking        comprises more than 2,500 civil society organizations (CSOs)              Survey (2020/2021), which tracks stigma and discrimination among
educational programs to in-school and out-of-school young people,       working in 21 primary focus areas in the HIV/AIDS response.               PLHIV, showed that only 54.1% of PLHIV had knowledge of the laws
the country can hope to achieve this target by 2025.                                                                                              that protect people living with HIV from discrimination, and only
                                                                        Commitment 8: Ensure that HIV investments                                 56% were aware of organizations that can protect the rights of
Commitment 6: Ensure that 75% of people living                                                                                                    people affected by HIV.
                                                                        increase to US$ 26 billion by 2020, including a
with, at risk of and affected by HIV benefit from                       quarter for HIV prevention and 6% for Social                              Nonetheless, the country appears to be doubling its efforts towards
HIV-sensitive social protection by 2020                                 Enablers                                                                  achieving this goal. Human rights awareness programs are being
South Africa has a responsive and HIV-sensitive social protection       The most recent National AIDS Spending Assessment (NASA)                  implemented by the government and civil society. There are
system, which ensures care and assistance for poor and vulnerable       showed that R37.5 billion was expended on HIV programs                    programs that provide rights- and ethics-related training to law
populations, as ingrained in the Constitution. About a third of the     in 2019/20, which is a R7 billion increase from the 2017/18               enforcement officers, members of the judiciary and healthcare
population benefits from the county’s social safety net. By the end     expenditure. This increase in HIV expenditure was due to the              workers. Also, the South Africa Human Rights Commission (SAHRC),
of the financial year 2019/20, there were 18.3 million South Africans   increased funding commitment from the South African Government            an organ of government, monitors human rights violations.
benefiting from one or other forms of social grant. This was            (SAG) and its development partners, notably the United States             However, some of these programs were interrupted by the
500,000 more than the number of beneficiaries a year earlier.           President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the Global        COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
                                                                        Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). About
South Africa’s social protection system is beyond social grants, as
                                                                        three quarters (71%) of the total HIV expenditure in 2019/20 went         Commitment 10: Commit to taking AIDS out of
there are multiple social assistance programs implemented across
                                                                        into the antiretroviral treatment program. As a result, the fraction of   isolation through people-centered systems to
different government agencies. UNAIDS defines HIV-sensitive social
                                                                        the HIV expenditure spent on prevention was less than the target          improve universal health coverage, including
protection as being inclusive of people who are either at risk of HIV
                                                                        of 25%. Also, less than 6% was spent on social enablers. However,
infection or susceptible to the consequences of HIV. Although the                                                                                 treatment for tuberculosis, cervical cancer and
                                                                        if the expenditure on the country’s social protection is considered,
South Africa social grants program does not specifically define an                                                                                hepatitis B and C
                                                                        the amount spent on social enablers will exceed 6%. The critical
HIV category, it is HIV-sensitive in many ways. This comprehensive                                                                                This commitment focuses on the linkage of HIV with TB and sexually
                                                                        issue under this commitment is the widening financial gap in HIV
and expanding social protection system means that the country                                                                                     transmitted infections (STIs). The co-management of TB and HIV
                                                                        spending in the country. The total HIV expenditure of R37.5 billion
achieved this commitment by 2020.                                                                                                                 has recently declined. UNAIDS data showed that the proportion of
                                                                        in 2019/20 was R6 billion less than the amount needed. In 2017/18,
                                                                        the gap was R2 billion.                                                   HIV-positive incident TB cases that were on ART and TB treatment
Commitment 7: Ensure that at least 30% of all                                                                                                     declined during the review period. Furthermore, the proportion of
service delivery is community-led by 2020                               Although South Africa has done well in mobilizing resources for its       the population co-infected with TB/HIV  and on ART decreased from
                                                                        HIV and TB response programs, attainment of this commitment               91% in 2015 to 87% in 2018.
The NSP 2017–2022 paved the way for achieving this indicator by
                                                                        cannot be confirmed due to the widening gap between needed and
recognizing the need to strengthen community-based responses                                                                                      However, the proportion of PLHIV who started tuberculosis
                                                                        available resources,  the less than 25% spent on HIV prevention
to HIV. SANAC’s role in the HIV response, through its sub-national                                                                                preventive treatment (TPT) appears to have increased significantly.
                                                                        programs and the less than 6% spent on social enablers.
structures, and the coordination of civil society multi-sectoral                                                                                  In 2019, the country’s achievement for this indicator was 69%, but
players in the response, has been central to this commitment.                                                                                     the National Department of Health (NDoH) 2020 data showed that
Although there are no clear indicators for measuring the                Commitment 9: Empower people living with, at
                                                                                                                                                  it was 93% in 2020. It is noteworthy that reporting on all indicators
achievement of this commitment, a conscientious scoping of the          risk of, and affected by HIV to know their rights                         under Commitment 10 was hampered by the unavailability of data.
HIV response landscape showed that South Africa achieved it by          and to access justice and legal services to prevent
2020.                                                                   and challenge violations of human rights
                                                                        South Africa’s Constitution, considered by many to be the most
Diverse types of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and
                                                                        progressive in the world, includes laws that endorse human rights,
smaller community-based organizations (CBOs) play significant
                                                                        access to justice, gender equality, and non-discrimination of any
roles in the HIV response. These roles include HIV testing and
                                                                        kind. In addition to the Constitution, other policies and guidelines
counselling (HTC), treatment and care, and advocacy, among
                                                                        exist to protect human rights and challenge their violations.
others. The formation of the Ritshidze Project in 2019 for
                                                                        Despite this supportive legal environment for Commitment 9,

                                                                                                                                                                                             GAM REPORT 2020       | 9
Overview of the                                                                         Figure 1: Trends in HIV prevalence in South Africa,
                                                                                        2016–2020
                                                                                                                                                  Figure 3: Trends in HIV prevalence among AGYW and
                                                                                                                                                  ABYM, 2016–2020

HIV/AIDS Epidemic                                                                               13.1%     13.2%     13.3%     13.4%       13.4%      AGYW

in 2020                                                                                                                                              (15 - 24)

OVERALL HIV PREVALENCE AND TRENDS
South Africa’s HIV prevalence, which rose rapidly from lower
than 1% 30 years ago, has plateaued at about 13% in the
last five years, evident by the overlapping 95% confidence
intervals1  in Figure 1. In 2020, the HIV prevalence was                                                                                                   2020
                                                                                        Source: Thembisa Model, V4.42
13.4%, translating to 7.9 million PLHIV in the country.                      2                                                                          10.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                  2019
Although the HIV prevalence has plateaued, the number
                                                                                                                                                                                  10.8%
of PLHIV continues to increase annually as the country’s                                Figure 2: Prevalence of HIV in females and males in                2018
population size increases. In 2016, there were 7.3 million                              South Africa, disaggregated by age, 2020                        11.1%
people living with HIV.                                                                                                                                                           2017
                                                                                                                                                           2016                   11.3%
HIV PREVALENCE BY AGE AND SEX                                                                                                                           11.5%
HIV prevalence generally increases with age, reflecting
changes in risk behavior and accumulated risk of infection.
                                                                                                                                                    ABYM
The known pattern of HIV prevalence by sex in the country
                                                                                                                                                    (15 - 24)
subsists, with women more disproportionately affected than
men. A hurdle that the country continues to face is the fact
that this disproportionality by sex is more pronounced in the
younger age groups, with AGYW from 15 and 24 years old
being three times more likely to be HIV infected than their
male counterparts (Figure 2).                                                                                                                              2020
                                                                                                                                                         4.0%
It should be noted that, despite the high disproportionality
                                                                                        Source: Thembisa Model, V4.42                                                             2019
in HIV prevalence between AGYW and ABYM, recent trends                                                                                                                            4.0%
                                                                                                                                                           2018
show a decreasing prevalence in the former group, while
                                                                                                                                                         4.0%

                                                                                                  3
the prevalence is increasing in the latter (Figure 3).
                                                                                                                                                                                  2017
                                                                                                            The ratio of HIV prevalence
                                                                                                                                                                                  3.9%
 A 95% confidence interval is a range of values around an estimate where we can be                          AGYW:ABYM                                      2016
                                                                                                                                                         3.8%
 95% certain the true (population) value we have estimated lies. For example, a study
 can estimate the HIV prevalence in a population to be 13% and provide the 95%
 confidence interval to be 11 to 15%. This means that although the study estimated
 the HIV prevalence to be 13%, the researchers are 95% certain that the actual HIV
 prevalence in the population lies between 11 and 15%.                                                                                            Source: Thembisa Model, V4.42

10 |   Overview of the
HIV PREVALENCE BY RACE                                        Figure 4: Prevalence of HIV in South Africa by district, 2020
Race is an important determinant of HIV infection in South
Africa as it is also a determinant of education, income
and health access. The most recent general population
survey (the 2017 South African National HIV, Prevalence,
Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey (SABSSM
V)) showed that the burden of the epidemic in South Africa
is overwhelmingly borne by Black Africans (17%), while only
1% of White and Asian South Africans are living with the
virus.

HIV PREVALENCE IN ANTENATAL CARE (ANC)
ATTENDEES
The Thembisa Model Version 4.4 (or Thembisa Model for
short) shows that the HIV prevalence among pregnant
women in the country decreased only slightly from 27.2% in
2016 to 25.7% in 2020. The most recent national antenatal
care (ANC) survey, conducted in 2017 among pregnant
women using public facilities, showed the prevalence to       Source: Thembisa Model, V4.42

be slightly higher at 30.7%. The Thembisa Model included
pregnant women accessing private and public healthcare
                                                              Figure 5: Prevalence of HIV in South Africa by province,        By district
facilities.                                                   2016 and 2020
                                                                                                                              The Naomi Model allows for the generation of subnational
                                                                                                                              estimates of HIV prevalence in the country.3 This helps to
HIV PREVALENCE BY GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS
                                                                                                                              further understand the heterogenicity of the HIV epidemic
By province                                                                                                                   across geographical subgroups. Sorting the 52 health
The relative distribution of HIV by province in 2020 was                                                                      districts in South Africa by HIV prevalence shows a pattern
the same as that in 2016. In 2020, the HIV prevalence was                                                                     that is congruent with HIV prevalence by province. The
highest in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga provinces and                                                                         top eight districts (with the highest HIV prevalence) were
lowest in the Western Cape and Northern Cape provinces,                                                                       in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga provinces, while the
as it was in 2016 (Figure 5). While the HIV prevalence                                                                        bottom eight districts (with the lowest prevalence) were in
plateaued in most provinces between these comparative                                                                         the Western Cape and Northern Cape provinces (data not
years, an approximate 10% increase was seen in the Cape                                                                       shown).
provinces: 10% increase in the Western Cape and 7%
increase in the Eastern and Northern Cape.

                                                              Source: Thembisa Model, V4.42

                                                                                                                                                                   GAM REPORT 2020     | 11
The Naomi Model showed that as of September 2020,
the burden of HIV (number of PLHIV) was highest in
Johannesburg in Gauteng Province (686,600) and eThekwini
in KwaZulu-Natal province (666,000) and lowest in Namakwa
in the Northern Cape province (4200) and Central Karoo in
the Western Cape province (2900), as shown in Figure 4.3

By urban-rural locality
The Naomi and Thembisa models do not provide HIV
estimates by urban-rural breakdown. The most recent
national estimates of HIV across this dichotomy showed
that the HIV prevalence was lower in urban areas (13.2%)
than in rural areas (15.2% in tribal rural areas and 17.5%
in formal rural areas).

HIV PREVALENCE IN KEY POPULATIONS
The two largest key populations in South Africa are men
who have sex with men (MSM) and sex workers. Their
respective population size estimates, as of 2020 were
309,686 and 146,048.4 The Thembisa Model estimated
the HIV prevalence in MSM in 2020 as 30.3%, which is a
decline from 32.3% in 2016. The prevalence for female
sex workers (FSW) in 2020 was 63.8%, down from 67.6%
in 2016.1

HIV INCIDENCE
In 2016, there were 285,258 new HIV infections in South
Africa.2 By 2020, the total number of new infections was
216,008, a 24% decline in four years. This overall decline
is examined by age and sex in Chapter 3 of this report.

12 |   Overview of the
Commitment 1                                                                                                                          CURRENT STATUS AND RECENT TRENDS
                                                                 viral load suppression. In March 2020, the 2019 guidelines
                                                                 were updated to include:
                                                                                  5
                                                                                                                                      Number of people living with HIV
Ensure that 30 million people                                    1.     The CD4 count threshold for TB Preventive Treatment           In 2020, there were 7.9 million PLHIV in South Africa (Figure
living with HIV have access to                                          (TPT) eligibility in pregnancy was amended from 100           7).2 This is 622,140 more PLHIV than in 2016, when this
treatment through meeting the                                           cells/μL to 350 cells/μL.                                     Declaration was signed. It is notable, however, that the HIV

90–90–90 targets by 2020                                         2.     All clients with a positive CrAg test should be referred      prevalence — the percentage of the population infected —
                                                                        for a lumbar puncture.                                        has plateaued at around 13%. The significant upward trend
                                                                 3.     Removal of resistance testing for adults and                  in the number of PLHIV (annual increase 155,000, p
Figure 7: Trends in number of PLHIV in South Africa,          Antiretroviral medicine stock-outs                              Late HIV diagnosis
2016–2020
                                                              The NDoH National Surveillance Center measures the              Late HIV diagnosis, the percentage of PLHIV with CD4 count
                                                              percentage availability of medicines as they appear             less than a particular threshold at the time of diagnosis,
                                                              on facility formularies at health establishments.7 The          monitors how early PLHIV are diagnosed. Data from the
                                                              percentage is calculated as a fraction of the total number of   District Health Information System (DHIS) show that late HIV
                                                              medicine lines on the formulary at all fixed primary health     diagnosis was 30.5% in 2020 when using the threshold of
                                                              care (PHC) and community health centers/community day
Figure 10: HIV testing volumes and positivity rate            and planning of resources. Data on the positivity rate among       and 73% of PLHIV should be virally suppressed. However,
among adults in South Africa, 2016–2020                       those tested is important for determining the number of            ART coverage remains low. In 2020, the ART coverage was
                                                              PLHIV diagnosed, and the effectiveness of testing modalities,      a mere 66% — much lower than the target of 81%. The
T E S T V O LU ME                         POSITIVITY RA T E
                                                              in addition to other parameters. Figures 10 and 11 show            coverage is lower in men (62%) than in women (72%).
11                         2020                      6.3%     data on both indicators, first for adults 15 years and older;
                                                              and for children aged 19 months to 14 years. The number            Gaps in policies
                                                              of tests conducted among adults increased from 14 to 18            There are gaps in the adoption and implementation of
18                         2019                      6.7%     million from 2018 to 2019 before falling sharply to 11 million     policies that affect this commitment. One example is the
                                                              in 2020. The positivity rate among those tested continued          area of multi-month ART dispensing. South Africa has not
                                                              to decrease annually, to 6.3% in 2020. The test volume and         yet expanded ART refills for HIV medicines to four to six
14                         2018                      7.4%     positivity rate trends are similarly decreasing in children, but   months as the WHO recommends.9
                                                              they are lower, as expected.
                                                                                                                                 Children did not exceed 75% for all three
13                         2017                      8.3%     ACHIEVEMENTS                                                       treatment fast track targets
                                                              The first 90% target achieved in men and women                     While the first and third 90% targets were achieved in
                                                              across all districts                                               adults, children younger than 15 years did not exceed 75%
14                         2016                      9.2%                                                                        for these targets.
                                                              The Naomi Model allows us to assess the UNAIDS 90-90-
                                                              90 targets across all 52 health districts. The data showed
                                                                                                                                 Antiretroviral medicines stockout not negligible
Source: Thembisa Model, V 4.42                                that, by 2020, the percentage of PLHIV diagnosed was at
                                                                                                                                 Although the 93% average antiretroviral medicine availability
                                                              least 90% in all districts, except in Mangaung Metropolitan
Figure 11: HIV testing volumes and positivity                                                                                    exceeded the 90% current target set by the NDoH, the
                                                              Municipality, where it was 89%.
rate among children in South Africa, 2016–2020                                                                                   shortfall of 7% is not negligible. The percentage translates
T E S T V O LU ME                         POSITIVITY RA T E   Declining AIDS-related mortality                                   into many PLHIV who could potentially default on their
                                                                                                                                 medication and/or be lost to care due to stockouts.
                                                              AIDS-related mortality declined by 16% between 2016 and
8                          2020                      2.1%
                                                              2020, when using data from the Thembisa Model; 19%
                                                                                                                                 Negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic
                                                              when using data from Statistics South Africa. Data from the
                                                                                                                                 The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated lockdown
13                         2019                      2.2%     Thembisa Model showed that the observed decline in AIDS-
                                                                                                                                 regulations had a substantive impact on the country’s
                                                              related mortality in the last five years is sharper from 2018
                                                                                                                                 performance regarding Commitment 1. For example,
                                                              to 2020 than from 2016 to 2018. This steeper decreasing
                                                                                                                                 the number of HIV tests conducted in 2020 decreased
                                                              trend is unlikely to be related to the COVID-19 pandemic as
11                         2018                      2.5%                                                                        dramatically from 2019, and the number of PLHIV starting
                                                              the number of deaths in 2020 were similar to that reported
                                                                                                                                 ART declined in 2020 compared to 2019. This is within
                                                              in 2019.
                                                                                                                                 the context of the renewed commitment by the NDoH in
10                         2017                      2.9%                                                                        2019 to rapidly initiate more clients. An interrupted time-
                                                              KEY ISSUES
                                                                                                                                 series analysis of data from 65 clinics in rural South Africa
                                                              Second and third 90% targets not achieved by                       found a 47.6% decrease in HIV testing after lockdown
10                         2016                      3.2%     2020                                                               implementation.10 Within the first week of lockdown
                                                              If all three Fast-Track targets are achieved, 90% of PLHIV         implementation in 2020, ART initiation decreased by
Source: Thembisa Model, V 4.42                                                                                                   46.2%.10
                                                              should know their status, 81% of PLHIV should be on ART,
                                                                                                                                                                       GAM REPORT 2020      | 15
Commitment 2
                                                               of MTCT of HIV and related infections, including syphilis          These revisions, which have been adopted in public and
                                                               and TB, a revision to the policy environment regarding this        private healthcare settings, are expected to help the
Eliminate new HIV infections                                   commitment became imminent. The most recent revision               country surmount the current challenge of the increasing

among children by 2020 while                                   — the National Guideline for the Prevention of Mother to           number of babies who acquire HIV infection during the
                                                               Child Transmission of Communicable Infections (2019)11  —          postnatal period.
ensuring that 1.6 million children                             provided guidance for:
have access to HIV treatment by                                                                                                   CURRENT STATUS AND RECENT TRENDS
                                                               1.   “Strengthening antenatal and postnatal care for both
2018                                                                HIV negative and positive mothers.                            Early infant diagnosis
                                                               2.   The introduction of a dolutegravir-based ART regimen          Current testing guidelines recommend that HIV-exposed
SCORECARD                                                           which is more efficacious in reducing the risks of            infants should have a routine HIV Polymerase Chain
                                                                    transmission of HIV.                                          Reaction (PCR) test at birth, at 10-weeks for those who
 Is this a priority commitment for the country?   Yes          3.   Promoting integrated management of the mother-                tested negative at birth, and at six months for those who

                                                                    baby pair by aligning prevention of mother-to-child           tested negative at 10 weeks, unless indicated by HIV-related
 Does the National Strategic Plan address this                                                                                    symptoms. In South Africa, HIV-PCR tests conducted at
                                                  Yes               transmission (PMTCT) interventions with BANC [basic
 commitment?
                                                                    antenatal care] visits during antenatal period and            birth (within seven days after birth) are used for monitoring
 Has the country reached the target and                             Expanded Programme on Immunization visits during              this indicator. Figure 13 shows that the number of birth
                                                  Yes
 commitment?                                                                                                                      HIV-PCR tests conducted increased from 230,000 in 2016
                                                                    postnatal period.”
                                                                                                                                  to 286,000 in 2020. The figure also shows the testing
                                                                                                                                  coverage using total births to HIV-positive mothers from
LEGAL AND POLICY ENVIRONMENT                                   Figure 12: South Africa’s legal and policy environment             the Thembisa Model Version 4.4 as the denominator. In
                                                               for Commitment 2
The commitment to eliminate new HIV infections among                                                                              2020, the coverage was 95%. These achievements, although
children by 2020 is one that has been demonstrated by                           2019                                              excellent, may be slightly underestimated, as National
                                                                         Prevention of                                            Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) testing numbers are for
the development of relevant policies and guidelines that                   unintended
create the environment for doing so (Figure 12). These                    preganncies,                                            public health facilities while the Thembisa Model estimates
                                                               monitoring of maternal                                             are for the entire country.
policies — heralded in 2013 by the introduction of fixed-
                                                                  viral load, ensuring
dose combination ARV for all HIV positive pregnant women            viral suppression,                    2015
                                                                  post-partum Infant                      Introduction of birth   Figure 13: Number of HIV PCR tests conducted at birth
and mothers and consolidated in 2015 — seek to improve                                                    PCR testing to HIV      (less than 7 days) in South Africa, 2016–2020
                                                                           prophylaxis
the quality of treatment and care pregnant women receive                                                  exposed babies
                                                                                                                                            No. of PCR
before, during and after delivery. Although South Africa                                                                                   tests at birth             EID coverge
                                                                                   2015

                                                                                                                                           230
has achieved great feats in reducing the rate of MTCT of
                                                                               Immediate
HIV in the country, it has not yet met the WHO’s criteria                lifelong ART for                                          2016
for validating countries that have eliminated MTCT of HIV                 all HIV positive                                                                                                74%
                                                                       pregnant women                                                         Millions
infection. The high antenatal HIV prevalence means that                     and mothers                  2013

                                                                                                                                           286
vertical transmission of HIV still exceeds the WHO threshold                                             FDC ART for all HIV
                                                                                                         positive pregnant
for eliminating MTCT.                                                                                                              2020
                                                                                                         women and mothers                                                                95%
                                                                                                         (PMTCT), no need for                 Millions
As the country continue to strive towards the elimination                                                CD4 results
                                                                                                                                  Source: Corporate Data Warehouse, NHLS12

16 |   Commitment 2
HIV testing among pregnant women                                 Preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV
The percentage of pregnant women with known HIV status           This indicator measures the number of pregnant women living with HIV who delivered during the past 12 months and
was 90% in 2019 - a decline from 94.8% in 2018.17 The            received antiretroviral medicines to reduce the risk of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. The UNAIDS reports that in 2020,
2017 ANC survey reported the HIV testing rate among              of the 310,000 women needing ARVs for PMTCT, 299,033 received them (Table 2). This translated to 97% of pregnant HIV-
pregnant women to be 99%.15 In 2020, DHIS data showed            positive women who received ARVs for PMTCT in 2020, up from 95% in 2018. The number of new HIV infections averted due
that 1,133,478 women attended an antenatal clinic or gave        to the PMTCT program is estimated to be around 52,000 to 55,000 annually from 2018 to 2020.
birth at a facility in the preceding12 months. Out of these,
1,095,716 were tested for HIV or already knew their positive     Table 1: Prevention of mother-to-child transmission
status, translating to 97%, which is the same percentage         performance indicators in South Africa, 2017–2019
reported in 2018 and 2019.13
                                                                  Indicator (and data source)        2018       2019     2020

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV
The MTCT rate has continued to drop (Table 1). Data from
                                                                  Pregnant women who needed
                                                                  ARV for PMTCT (n)
                                                                                                   320,000   320,000   310,000
                                                                                                                                        300,000
the NHLS showed that, in 2020, of the 286,460 babies born         Pregnant women who received
                                                                  ARV for PMTCT (n)
                                                                                                   304,933   302,936   299,033          HIV-positive women
to HIV-exposed mothers tested at birth, 2,150 were HIV-                                                                                 reached with PMTCT in 2020
                                                                  Coverage of pregnant who
positive — a positivity rate of 0.75%. In 2018, the positivity                                        95%       96%       97%
                                                                  received ARV for PMTCT (%)
rate was 0.9%.12 The Thembisa Model shows a similar
                                                                  New HIV infections averted due
estimate of the MTCT rate at birth, viz. 0.8% in 2020.2                                             54,000    55,000    52,000
                                                                  to PMTCT (n)

The MTCT rates around two months, at 12 months, and              Source: UNAIDS14
later than 12 months, which capture early, mid and later
postpartum transmissions respectively, also continued to         Table 2: Mother-to-child transmission rates of HIV in South Africa, 2018–2020
decline, although the numbers and rates were, as expected,
higher than the MTCT rates at birth, which reflects               Indicator (and data source)                                                   2018              2019              2020
antepartum and intrapartum transmission of HIV (Table 1).         MTCT rate at birth

                                                                  HIV-diagnosed mothers (NHLS Data)                                            0.90%             0.79%             0.75%

         MTCT rate at birth,   0.75%          in 2020             HIV-diagnosed mothers (Thembisa Model)                                       0.83%             0.80%             0.77%

                                                                  MTCT rate after birth

                                                                  HIV-diagnosed mothers at 2 months (NHLS Data)                                1.14%             0.92%             0.87%

                                                                  All HIV-positive women at 12 months (DHIS)                                   1.75%             1.65%             0.96%

                                                                  All HIV-positive women at 18 months (Thembisa Model)                         3.82%             3.65%             3.48%

                                                                 Source: NHLS12, Thembisa Model, V4.42 and DHIS13

                                                                                                                                                                         GAM REPORT 2020   | 17
ACHIEVEMENTS

  Syphilis among pregnant women                                                                                         Early Infant Diagnosis increased despite the
                                                               Congenital syphilis rate                                 COVID-19 pandemic
  South Africa’s guidelines for PMTCT includes those for       Data from the Congenital syphilis (CS) surveillance
                                                                                                                        The COVID-19 pandemic appeared to have had little or
  screening and treating maternal syphilis, in line with       team at the National Institute for Communicable
                                                                                                                        no impact on the country’s performance for this indicator,
  WHO’s call for dual elimination of HIV and syphilis.         Diseases (NICD) showed upwards trends in notified
                                                                                                                        as the number of birth PCR tests conducted by the NHLS
  However, because syphilis testing and positivity rate in     cases in the last three years, at the rate of seven
                                                                                                                        increased by about 12,000, from 274,813 in 2019 to
  pregnant women are not part of the National Indicators       additional cases per quarter (p
Hence, this 2020 GAM report, as with previous editions           The NSP target for congenital syphilis may not be
of the report, presents birth testing data (testing done         achieved
within the first seven days of birth), which has a negligible    The NSP 2017–2022 aims to “virtually eliminate congenital
likelihood of duplications. The NDoH should work to              syphilis by reducing incidence to 50 or fewer cases per
introduce a unique identifier at birth that can be linked to     100,000 live births” by 2022. For this to occur, the incidence
the SA ID number, as the latter is not available at birth.       of congenital syphilis in the country should be less than
                                                                 600 cases annually. However, the incidence data showed
High uninetended pregnancies                                     an upward trend for the last three years and the current
One of the four pillars of PMTCT for HIV in the country is the   annual incidence is likely higher than 600, considering that
prevention of unintended pregnancies among women living          373 cases were notified in 2020 from only 23 facilities in 17
with HIV. However, the numbers of unintended pregnancies         districts.
remain high in the country, including among teenagers and
women living with HIV.                                           Figure 15: Number of infections transmitted from
                                                                 mother to child at birth and after birth, 2016–2020
Is PMTCT going down?
Although the coverage of HIV-positive pregnant women who
received ARVs for PMTCT increased from 95% to 97%, from
2018 to 2020, there was a decrease in the absolute number
of women served. It is not known if this decrease was due
to lower projections and target setting at the NDoH, budget
constraints, or the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is,
however, noteworthy that, with decreasing HIV incidence in
pregnant women, if the target for absolute numbers served
is maintained or increased slightly, PMTCT coverage can be
bumped to 100% in the next two to three years.

High post-partum MTCT rate
Although MTCT rate at birth was lower than 1% in 2020, by
18 months, the overall rate was 3.5%, reflecting a high post-
partum transmission of HIV infection from mother to child        Source: Thembisa Model, V4.42
(Figure 15). Although the number of post-partum infections
decreased by 25% from 2016 to 2020 (P=0.001), the actual
number remained high.

                                                                                                                                  GAM REPORT 2020   | 19
Commitment 3                                                      LEGAL AND POLICY ENVIRONMENT                                  regarding this commitment. The NSP 2017–202218, the
                                                                  Commitment 3 is another area in which the country has         guiding document for the country’s coordinated HIV/AIDS
Ensure access to combination                                      seen rapid and progressive developments in legal and          response, is the pivot policy document for this commitment.
                                                                  policy environment. The laws of the land, and healthcare      It sets clear goals and measurable targets to reduce new
prevention options, including pre-
                                                                  policies and guidelines, do not discriminate against          HIV infections among AGYW and key populations. The
exposure prophylaxis, voluntary                                   individuals regarding employment, movement, sexuality,        period for the current South African National Sex Worker
medical male circumcision, harm                                   marriage, healthcare or other rights of gay men, sex          HIV Plan (2016–2019)19 has ended, and discussions with

reduction and condoms, to at least                                workers and members of other key populations.                 SANAC officials have revealed progress in the development
                                                                                                                                of the next version of the plan, although delayed by the
90% of people by 2020, especially                                 Having dedicated policy documents to reduce new HIV
                                                                                                                                COVID-19 pandemic. However, at the end of 2020, sex work
young women and adolescent girls                                  infections in the general and key populations is the
                                                                                                                                remained decriminalized in South Africa.
                                                                  country’s way of putting its money where its mouth is
in high-prevalence countries and                                                                                                One of the latest additions to the country’s policy framework
key populations—gay men and                                       Figure 16: South Africa’s legal and policy environment        for this commitment in the period under review was the
other men who have sex with men,                                  for Commitment 3                                              South African Guidelines for the Provision of Pre-exposure
                                                                                                                                Prophylaxis (PrEP) to Persons at Substantial Risk of HIV
transgender people, sex workers and                                                   2020                                      Infection.20 These guidelines, which were based on research
their clients, people who inject drugs                             South African Guidelines
                                                                                                                                evidence and WHO recommendations, were developed by
                                                                    for the Provision of Pre-
and prisoners                                                   exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP)
                                                                                                        2020
                                                                                                                                the NDoH to boost comprehensive combination prevention
                                                              to Persons at Substantial Risk
                                                                                                        National Drug Master    among South Africans. On 26 June 2020, the Minister of
                                                                             of HIV Infection
                                                                                                        Plan 2019–2024          Social Development, Ms Lindiwe Zulu, officially launched
SCORECARD                                                                             2018                                      the fourth edition of the National Drug Master Plan (NDMP)
                                                                        Health Sector Drug                                      2019–2024, which reflects the country’s responses to the
Is this a priority commitment for the country?   Yes                           Master Plan
                                                                                                                                substance abuse problem as set out by the United Nations
                                                                                                         2018                   Conventions and other international bodies.21 This edition
Does the National Strategic Plan address this                                                            Roll-out of PrEP for
                                                 Yes                                                                            of the NDMP acknowledges the ineffectiveness of punitive
commitment?                                                                                              adolescent girls and
                                                                                                         young women was        approaches to drug control, placing emphasis on  rights-
Has the country reached the target and                                                2017               started at selected
                                                 No                                                      public clinics
                                                                                                                                based, evidence-based and multisectoral principles for
                                                                         National Strategic
commitment?                                                            Plan for HIV, TB and                                     social protection and health.
                                                                          STIs (2017–2022)
How likely is the country to reach the target                                                           2016
                                                 Not likely                                                                     Important legal and policy instruments in South Africa
by 2025?                                                                                                South African
                                                                                                        National Guidelines     that ensure that AGYW and members of key populations
                                                                                                        for Medical Male        have access to HIV combination prevention options are
                                                                                       2016             Circumcision
                                                                          National launch of                                    summarized in Figure 16.
                                                                           oral PrEP for sex
                                                                                     workers
                                                                                                         2016
                                                                                                         South African
                                                                                                         National Sex
                                                                                                         Worker HIV Plan

20 |   Commitment 3
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