Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights - S&P Global
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Emerging Markets Credit Research
Jose Perez Gorozpe
Economic Research
Tatiana Lysenko
Monthly Highlights Xu Han Elijah Oliveros
Vincent Conti Vishrut Rana
Valerijs Rezvijs
October 13, 2021
Contents
Key Takeaways
Economic And Credit Conditions Highlights
Macro-Credit Dashboards
GDP Summary
Monetary Policy/FX
Financing Conditions Highlights
Ratings Summary
This document does not constitute a rating action.
2Key Takeaways
The recent increase in energy prices threatens to keep inflation in most emerging markets (EM) above central bank targets
for longer than previously expected, putting upward pressure on local interest rates. Hydrocarbon prices continue to trend
upwards, as strong recovery in demand on the back of re-opening of economies interacts with supply constraints. Oil prices
surged to a multi- s the
world could switch from high-priced natural gas and LNG to oil. Markets have reacted by pricing in more rate hikes in several
EMs, especially those outside of Asia. In EM Asia, the impact of energy prices on headline inflation tends to be more muted, while
central banks are more patient than in other EMs. Therefore, the tightening in that region is likely to continue to lag that in most
other major EMs.
Rising energy prices, amid elevated food prices and unemployment, raise concerns over potential bouts of social instability
in several EMs, ultimately lowering policy predictability. This is especially the case in Latin America, where several countries
have already experienced periods of widespread protests this year, in some cases, causing a watering down of proposed fiscal
consolidation bills (Colombia). A heavy electoral cycle in the region this year and next means the greater likelihood of less known
candidates, with less predictable policies, becoming more popular.
Higher energy prices are a net negative for trade in most major EMs. With the notable exception of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and
Colombia, most of the major EMs are net importers of energy products. The impact of higher energy prices on inflation for net
importers can be amplified through a potentially weaker exchange rate. Trade accounts are generally in a good shape across
EMs, given strong exports and the sharp decline in imports during the pandemic-driven downturn. However, as economic activity
continues to recover, a higher energy import bill could start worsening current account balances and increase external financing
needs among some EMs.
Financing conditions remain broadly supportive, but persistently high energy prices is a key emerging risk. Local interest
rates have started to rise, but mostly in an orderly manner. However, greater concerns over higher energy priced for longer could
accelerate the rise in rates and crimp domestic financing conditions. Persistently high energy prices could also result in a re-
pricing of expectations of monetary policy normalization in the U.S., and lead to less favorable external financing conditions.
3Energy Prices| Oil Prices Are Likely To Face More Upward Pressure
Energy Prices (Dec. 31, 2019 = 100)
Oil prices are high but could go higher.
Natural Gas Brent Hydrocarbon prices continue to trend
350 upwards, as strong recovery in demand on the
back of re-openings of economies interacts
300 with supply constraints. Oil prices surged to a
multi-
250 to go higher as utilities and industrial
companies across the world could start
200
switching from high-priced natural gas and
LNG to oil.
150 S&P Global Ratings revised its oil and gas
price assumptions upwards on October 4. We
100 now expect Brent averaging $75/bbl for the
remainder of the year, up from $65. Natural
50 gas has favorable fundamentals as a bridge
fuel in the energy transition story. We now
0 project Henry Hub to average $4.5/mmBtu for
the remainder of 2021, up from $3.5
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Aug-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
Nov-13
Aug-14
Nov-14
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Nov-16
Aug-17
Nov-17
Aug-18
Nov-18
Aug-19
Nov-19
Aug-20
Nov-20
Aug-21
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
previously.
Note: for natural gas prices we use a generic contract traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange. Source: Bloomberg.
4EM Inflation | High Energy And Food Prices, Not A Good Combination
Energy And Food Price Median For Major EMs
Inflation is looking less transitory and more
persistent, given the recent increase in
Energy Food energy prices. Oil prices reached a multi-year
high, and electricity prices are rising rapidly
18
16
economies are experiencing. In the median
14
EM, energy price inflation is running at about
12 15% year over year, and the recent increase in
10 global energy prices means it will likely remain
8 high in the coming months.
6 Food prices are also stubbornly high. Food
4 tends to have a much higher weight (about
2 25%) in the CPI than energy (about 10%). The
0
combination of rapidly growing food prices and
higher energy costs, amid high unemployment,
-2
increase the risk of social instability. This is
-4
especially the case in Latin America, where
-6 several countries have already experienced
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
periods of widespread protests this year. A
heavy electoral cycle in Latin America could
Percentage year over year. Note: median inflation for both energy and food is from 13 major EMs. If energy price index is not available, we
use whichever has a highest wave in the CPI between housing-related energy prices and transportation-related energy prices. The trigger more protests, influence political
exception is South Africa, for which we calculated our own energy inflation index based on weights for housing and transportation energy campaigns, and reduce policy predictability.
Source: Haver Analytics and S&P Global Ratings.
5EM Monetary Policy | Markets Are Pricing In More Hikes, Except In
Asia
Market Implied Cumulative Policy Rate Changes In The Next Six Months The recent uptick in energy prices showed up
in local rates. Inflation in most EMs is running
above central bank targets, and the recent
Beginning Of September Beginning Of October
increase in energy prices could keep headline
400 inflation higher for longer. High food inflation,
and the impact of ongoing supply-chain
350
helping. As a result, implied interest rate hikes
300
by markets increased last month across most
250
major EMs. Asia is the exception, where
200 Energy prices tend to have a lower impact on
overall inflation in EM Asia, and central banks
150 tend to be more cautious in moving interest
rates.
100
More EMs are starting to normalize monetary
50
policy. The central banks of Poland and
Colombia started increasing their policy rates
0 last month. Poland surprised with a 40 basis
Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Russia Poland South India Philippines Thailand Malaysia point (bps) hike to 0.50%, and Colombia raised
Africa
its rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in a widely
In basis points. Note: Implied policy rates are based on six-month vanilla interest rate swaps. Source: Bloomberg.
expected move.
6EM Energy Trade | Not Many Winners In EM From Higher Energy Prices
Energy Trade Balance Only a handful of key EMs reap trade benefits
from higher energy prices. These include oil
35
producing Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Colombia.
Most other major EMs are net importers of
30 energy-related products (see chart). Trade
accounts are generally in good shape across
25 EMs, given strong exports and the sharp
decline in imports during the pandemic-driven
20 downturn. However, as economic activity
continues to recover, a higher energy import
15 bill could start worsening current account
(%)
balances and increase external financing
10
needs among some EMs.
5
Inflation pressures can be amplified among
0
net energy importers, given that exchange
rates tend to face more depreciatory pressures
-5
in those countries when oil prices rise.
-10
THA CHL PHL IND POL CHN MEX TUR ZAF ARG BRA IDN MYS COL RUS SAU
Percentage of GDP (2019). Source: Oxford Economics, WITS, and S&P Global Ratings.
7Regional Economic Highlights
EM Asia Economics| Severe Pandemic Wave Is Easing
Vishrut Rana, Singapore, +65-6216-1008, vishrut.rana@spglobal.com
-19 Cases New COVID-19 cases across EM Asia remain
relatively high but are now declining as the
10 300
severe COVID-19 wave looks to have peaked.
0
250
-10 Vaccination rates are gradually improving.
% from baseline
200 Over the past month, the proportion of
-20
population with at least one vaccine dose
-30 150 increased 9.4 percentage points.
-40
100
-50 Lockdowns are slowly easing, partly due to
50 slowing of new case numbers, but also due to
-60
a move towards living with and managing the
-70 0 virus.
28-Sep-20
30-Sep-21
28-Feb-20
28-Feb-21
28-Mar-20
28-Aug-20
31-Aug-21
28-Jul-20
31-Mar-21
31-Jul-21
28-May-20
28-Oct-20
31-May-21
28-Jun-20
28-Nov-20
28-Jan-21
30-Jun-21
28-Apr-20
28-Dec-20
30-Apr-21
As a result, economic activity is now
improving, but the sharp downturn in the third
quarter has led to labor market deterioration
Mobility New cases per million people (Right axis)
and weakened household balance sheets.
Excluding India and China. Countries included are Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Seven-day moving averages
shown. Mobility shown is for retail and recreation, where baseline refers to median mobility between Jan. 3 and Feb. 6, 2020. Source:
Google Community Mobility Report, Our World in Data, and S&P Global Economics.
9EM EMEA Economics | Exports Continue To Perform Strongly
Tatiana Lysenko, Paris, +33-1-4420-6748, tatiana.lysenko@spglobal.com
Valerijs Rezvijs, London, +44-7929-651386, valerijs.rezvijs@spglobal.com Russia and GCC economies are among key beneficiaries
from a recent rally in energy markets. Value of Russia's exports
Exports Of Goods surged to $49.5 billion in July, the highest level since December
2013, mostly reflecting higher prices. Oil export volumes have
160
started rising gradually amid the tapering of supply restrictions
as part of the OPEC+ deal. We note that a price-smoothing
formula used in long-
140 state-controlled energy giant, reduces potential gains from
favorable prices this year (see
Gas Bridge share of sales in
Index (July 2019=100)
-term contracts is tracing the oil price with a lag,
120
which suggests an upside for gas export revenues next year.
-of-
trade is fading.
100
commodities, have fallen from their peak values, while prices for
-
high current account surplus of 5.5% of GDP in the second
80 quarter should start narrowing, as exports soften and imports
rise in line with the recovering demand and higher energy
import bill.
60
rebalancing. Strong goods exports, and rising services exports
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Feb-20
Mar-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Aug-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Aug-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-21
Oct-19
Apr-20
May-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
May-21 amid a faster-than-expected recovery in international travel
South Africa Turkey Russia
bolstered the current account, which turned to a surplus of
$500 million in August. While exports should continue to
perform well, rising energy imports will likely limit further
In U.S. dollars, three-month moving average. Source: CBR, SARB, TCMB, and S&P Global Ratings.
10LatAm Economics | Pandemic Is Easing, But Benefits To Growth Are
Fading
Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, New York, +1-212-438-2228, elijah.oliveros@spglobal.com
New Daily COVID-19 Cases Per Million Population New daily cases have reached their lowest
level since last year. New daily COVID-19
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico EM Median related deaths are also among their lowest
2500 rates since the pandemic started. Vaccination
progress has helped, with the median major
Latin American country having vaccinated half
2000 of its population.
1500 But reopenings are having a smaller impact
on GDP growth. Just like lockdowns are less of
a drag on growth, reopenings are providing less
1000 and less of a boost. Although most of the
sectors, which are operating significantly
below capacity, will benefit from further
500 progress in vaccination, they account for a
relatively small share of GDP. A further
delinking between pandemic-specific
0 developments and GDP is likely.
Seven-day moving average. Note: EM Median is the median value of 16 of the largest EMs. Source: OWID and S&P Global Ratings.
11Macro-Credit Dashboards
GDP Summary | Uneven Recovery Continues, EM-Asia Underperformed In Q2
Latest reading Five-year
Country Period 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
(y/y) avg
Argentina 17.9 Q2 -0.2 -2.0 -9.9 7.2 2.1 2.2
Brazil 12.4 Q2 -0.5 1.4 -4.4 5.1 1.8 2.2
Chile 18.1 Q2 2.0 0.9 -6.0 9.0 2.5 3.0
Colombia 17.6 Q2 2.4 3.3 -6.8 7.3 3.0 3.3
Mexico 19.6 Q2 2.0 -0.2 -8.5 6.2 2.9 2.2
China 7.9 Q2 6.7 6.0 2.3 8.0 5.1 5.0
India 20.1 Q2 6.9 4.0 -7.3 9.5 7.8 5.7
Indonesia 7.1 Q2 5.0 5.0 -2.1 3.4 5.6 4.8
Malaysia 16.1 Q2 4.9 4.4 -5.6 3.2 6.0 5.2
Philippines 11.8 Q2 6.6 6.1 -9.6 4.3 7.7 7.4
Thailand 7.5 Q2 3.4 2.3 -6.1 1.1 3.6 4.2
Poland 11.2 Q2 4.4 4.7 -2.7 5.1 5.3 3.3
Russia 10.5 Q2 1.0 2.0 -3.0 4.0 2.6 2.0
Saudi Arabia 1.8 Q2 1.6 0.3 -4.1 2.2 5.1 3.3
South Africa 19.3 Q2 1.0 0.2 -7.0 3.8 2.5 2.4
Turkey 21.7 Q2 4.2 0.9 1.8 8.6 3.3 3.1
Note: Red means GDP growth is below five-year average (2015-2019). Blue means the opposite. F Forecast. Source: Haver Analytics and S&P Global Ratings.
13Monetary Policy/FX | Colombia & Poland Started Hiking Rates Over The Last Month
Latest September YTD
Latest rate
Country Policy rate Inflation target inflation Next meeting exchange exchange
decision
reading rate chg. rate chg.
Argentina 38.00% No target 51.4% N/A N/A -1.0% -14.8%
Brazil 6.25% 3.75% +/- 1.5% 9.7% 100 bps hike Oct. 28 -5.3% -4.5%
Chile 1.50% 3% +/- 1% 4.8% 75 bps hike Oct. 14 -4.4% -12.1%
Colombia 2.00% 3% +/- 1% 4.5% 25 bps hike Oct. 29 -0.9% -9.9%
Mexico 4.75% 3% +/- 1% 5.6% 25 bps hike Nov. 12 -2.8% -3.5%
China 4.35% 3% 0.6% N/A N/A 0.3% 1.3%
India 4.00% 4% +/- 2% 5.3% Hold Dec. 8 -1.7% -1.6%
Indonesia 3.50% 3.5% +/- 1% 1.6% Hold Oct. 21 -0.3% -1.8%
Malaysia 1.75% No target 2.0% Hold Nov. 3 -0.7% -4.0%
Philippines 2.00% 3% +/- 1% 4.8% Hold Nov. 11 -2.4% -5.8%
Thailand 0.50% 1%-3% 1.7% Hold Nov. 10 -4.7% -11.5%
Poland 0.50% 2.5% +/- 1% 5.4% 40 bps hike Nov. 3 -3.8% -6.2%
Russia 6.75% 4.00% 7.4% 25 bps hike Oct. 22 0.7% 2.3%
Saudi Arabia 1.00% 3% +/- 1% 0.3% Hold N/A 0.0% 0.0%
South Africa 3.50% 3%-6% 5.1% Hold Nov. 18 -3.6% -2.5%
Turkey 18.00% 5% +/- 2% 19.6% 100 bps cut Oct. 21 -6.5% -16.3%
Note: Red means inflation is above the target range, policy is tightening, and exchange rate is weakening. Blue means the opposite. A positive number for the exchange-rate change means
appreciation. Argentina's central bank no longer targets inflation, nor does it set the policy rate directly (it is set based on monetary aggregates targeting). For China, we use the PBOC's seven-day
reverse repo. Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, and S&P Global Ratings.
14Real Effective Exchange Rates | Most Currencies Weakened Last Month
10.0
Stronger
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
Weaker
-25.0
-30.0
MYR
MXN
COP
PLN
BRL
CLP
SAR
PHP
TRY
ARS
THB
INR
ZAR
IDR
RUB
CNY
Percentage change from 10-year average. Note: Data is computed on 10 years of the monthly average data of the J.P. Morgan Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate Index (PPI-deflated). Data as of Sept.
31, 2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings, Haver Analytics, and J.P. Morgan.
15Real Interest Rates | Monetary Policy Normalization Still Had Ways To Go
Deviation In Current Real Benchmark Interest Rates From 10-Year Average
CNY
SAR
IDR Tighter
TRY
ZAR
MYR
INR
THB
MXN Looser
RUB
COP
PHP
CLP
PLN
BRL
-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200
available data to calculate the average. We exclude Argentina. For China, we
use the seven-day reverse repo rate. Data as of October 8. Source: Haver Analytics and S&P Global Ratings.
16EM Heat Map
Color Coding
Sovereign-- h
Financial Institutions BICRA--The overall assessment of economic risk and industry risk, which ultimately leads to the classification of banking systems int -grade scale. The points range fro
ry 011.
Nonfinancial Corporates-- p °We assess return on capital by using
the median of our rated corporates in their respective countries, then we adjust for inflation, we then rank it based on our bal debt monitor with data as of March 2020.
Source: *-IIF 1Q 2020. t - Source: Bangko Sental NG Pilipinas; Corporate Variables Capital IQ 1Q 2020. S&P Global Ratings. 18Financing Conditions Highlights
EM Yields | Benchmark Yields Rose Significantly, Except In Asia
Change In Local Currency 10-Year Bond Yields Since The End Of 2020
− Local currency benchmark yields
Sept Aug rose across most EMs. Rising
541 359 inflation expectations have prompted
600
500 406 420 106 153 144 231 central banks to lift rates in most
400 284 economies outside Asia, with a
(bps)
300 202 184
141
200
100
54 26 38 19 85 36 73 55 94 59
36 35 majority continuing an upward rate
0
(100)
Turkey Brazil Russia Colombia Mexico Chile Thailand Indonesia South Malaysia Poland India
-27-29
China potential for further upward pressure,
Africa given the surge in energy prices
C
globally.
Note: Data pulled at the end of September 2021. The selection of country/ economy is subject to data availability. Chile data is as of Sept. 29, 2021. Source: S&P
Global Ratings Research and Bloomberg.
− Asian benchmarks were more stable,
given that inflation trends there are
Change In Dollar-Denominated 10-Year Bond Yields Since The End Of 2020 more benign.
Sept Aug − Where available, 10-year yields for
138
150
109
dollar-denominated bonds
100 increased in line with U.S. Treasury
53 62 61 yields.
(bps)
41 35
50 24 14
9
0
Turkey Brazil Philippines Mexico Indonesia
C
Note: Data pulled at the end of September 2021. The selection of country/ economy is subject to data availability. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and
Bloomberg.
20EM Credit Spreads| Funding Access Remains Broadly Steady With Increasing
Selective Risk Appetite In Asia
− EM risk premia held mostly steady
EM Spreads By Region outside Asia, in contrast to rising
Covid-19 Worst Beg. of 2021 12-Month Average Aug. 31, 2021 Recent benchmark yields.
1,000 924 − LatAm and EM EMEA continued to
800 see stable spreads in the past
641 652 month, preventing corporate
Spreads
600 518
financing costs from outpacing the
346 348 324 327 increase in benchmark rates.
400 283 286 273 289 261 272 273 303 264 253 221 220
200 − Meanwhile, -yield
spreads widened, raising financing
0
costs despite having relatively
C EM Corp EM Corp Asia EM Corp LatAm EM Corp EEMEA
Note: bps levels. Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research, Refinitiv, ICE Data Indices, and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. steady benchmarks. This mostly
owed to the recent uncertainly over
U.S. And EM Spreads
Covid-19 Worst Beg. of 2021 12-Month Average Aug. 31, 2021 Recent the relatively stable investment-
1,500 1308 grade market, the main channel
1058
1,000 investor confidence. We expect to
Spreads
611 continue to see high volatility and
520 553 559
366 430 398 342 378 selective risk appetite during this
500 329
136 130 118 113 162 155 137 137 period in EM Asia.
0
C US IG US HY EM Corp IG EM Corp HY
Note: bps levels. Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. HY High Yield; IG Investment Grade. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research, Refinitiv, ICE Data Indices, and Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
21EM Corporate Issuance | By Market
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
− After a dip in August, EM issuances are
again roughly on pace to match the 2020
total. But divergence remains among the
140
sub-regions.
124 123
118 118 120 −
120 112 generally wider high-yield spreads in the
106 second half of the year. Over this time
101 102
(US$ Bil.)
100 period, the drop in high-yield issuances
has been more than made up for by strong
investment-grade activity.
80 74
70 71 − Meanwhile, the rest of the EMs are on
60 issuance volumes.
− We will also continue to watch the
40 potential impacts of the upcoming
external financing costs, but the markets
20
have so far taken recent developments in
stride.
C 0
Domestic Foreign
Excluding Greater China. Data as of Sept. 30, 2021, and full year data for 2016-2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and Refinitiv.
22EM | Financial And Non-Financial Corporate Issuance
EM Cumulative Corporate Bond Issuances EM Regional Bond Issuances
EMEA (LHS) Emerging Asia (ex. GC) (LHS)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
Latin America (LHS) Greater China (RHS)
120 1800
300
1600
100
250 1400
(US$ Bil.)
80 1200
200
(US$ Bil.)
(US$ Bil.)
1000
60
150 800
100 40 600
400
50 20
200
0 0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
C C Year
Month
Excluding Greater China. Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Data includes not rated and both financial and non- Data as of Sept. 30, 2021, and full year data for 2006-2020, for both financial and non-financial
financial entities. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and Refinitiv. entities. Left Hand Side (LHS), Right Hand Side (RHS). Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and
Refinitiv.
23Issuance | Sovereign Top Deals By Debt Amount In The Past 90 Days
S&P sovereign
rating (as of Issuance (mil.
Issue date Issuer Economy Market place S&P issue rating Sept. 30, 2021) Security description Currency $)
22-Jul-21 Chile Chile U.S. public A A 2.550% global notes due '33 USD 2,244
13-Sep-21 Turkey Turkey U.S. public BB B+ 6.500% global notes due '33 USD 1,500
6-Jul-21 Mexico Mexico U.S. public BBB BBB 2.250% global bonds due '36 EUR 1,476
21-Jul-21 Chile Chile Euro public A A 0.100% sr unsec nts due '27 EUR 1,167
14-Sep-21 Chile Chile U.S. public A A 0.555% global notes due '29 EUR 1,083
14-Sep-21 Chile Chile U.S. public A A 3.250% global notes due '71 USD 959
21-Jul-21 Chile Chile Euro public A A 1.300% sr unsec nts due '36 EUR 883
13-Sep-21 Indonesia Indonesia U.S. public BBB BBB 3.200% global notes due '61 USD 639
13-Sep-21 Indonesia Indonesia U.S. public BBB BBB 1.300% global notes due '34 EUR 587
21-Jul-21 Indonesia Indonesia U.S. public BBB BBB 1.000% global notes due '29 EUR 587
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021 (last 90 days); includes local/foreign currencies; EM excludes China. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
24Issuance | EM Sovereign Debt
2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD (US $ Bil.)
250
20
18
200
16
14
(US$ Bil.)
150
12
10
8 100
6
4 50
2
0 0
C
C
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021; includes local/foreign currencies. China includes mainland China and Hong Kong. Source: Refinitiv and Dealogic.
25Issuance | EM Financial And Non-Financial Top 20 Deals For The
Past 90 Days
Maturity Market S&P issue Curren Issuance (mil.
Issue date date Issuer Economy Sector place rating Security description cy $)
U.S. Mdm-trm sub nts due
15-Sep-21 23-Sep-36 Bangkok Bank PCL Thailand Banks private NR '36 US 1,000
Oi Movel S.A. - In Euro 8.750% gtd sec nts due
27-Jul-21 30-Jul-26 Judicial Brazil Telecommunications public B '26 US 880
U.S. 4.375% sr sec nts due
1-Sep-21 8-Sep-24 Adani Green Energy LtdIndia Utility private NR '24 US 750
U.S. 1.483% mdm-trm sr nts
29-Sep-21 6-Oct-26 APICORP Saudi Arabia Finance company private NR due '26 US 750
Euro
15-Sep-21 21-Sep-27 mBank SA Poland Banks public BBB- Fix/flt MTNs due '27 EUR 591
Eskom Holdings SOC Euro 4.314% gtd sr unsec nts
19-Jul-21 23-Jul-27 Ltd South Africa Utility public BB- due '27 US 500
U.S. 2.720% sub global nts
29-Jul-21 11-Aug-31 Bancomext Mexico Banks private NR due '31 US 500
U.S. 3.950% sr unsec nts due
15-Sep-21 5-Apr-27 JSW Steel Ltd India Metals, mining & steel private NR '27 US 500
U.S. 5.050% sr unsec nts due
15-Sep-21 5-Apr-32 JSW Steel Ltd India Metals, mining & steel private NR '32 US 500
Turkiye Vakiflar U.S. 5.500% global MTNs due
9-Sep-21 1-Oct-26 Bankasi TAO Turkey Banks private NR '26 US 497
Summit Digitel U.S. 2.875% sr sec nts due
4-Aug-21 12-Aug-31 Infrastructure India Capital goods private BBB- '31 US 492
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021 (last 90 days); excludes sovereign issuances and China. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Table is for foreign currency only
without perpetual. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
26Issuance | EM Financial And Non-Financial Top 20 Deals For The
Maturity Market S&P issue Curren Issuance (mil.
Issue date date Issuer Economy Sector place rating Security description cy $)
Adani Ports & SE Zone U.S. 5.000% sr unsec nts due
26-Jul-21 2-Aug-41 Ltd India Transportation private BBB- '41 US 450
Azure Power Energy U.S.
11-Aug-21 19-Aug-26 Ltd India Utility private NR 3.575% sr nts due '26 US 414
Euro 2.750% mdm-trm nts
6-Jul-21 13-Jan-27 Rec Ltd India Financial institution public NR due '27 US 400
Power Finance Corp 1.841% global MTNs due
13-Sep-21 21-Sep-28 Ltd India Finance company U.S. public NR '28 EUR 354
Euro
9-Sep-21 16-Dec-31 Kt21 T2 Co Ltd Turkey Finance company public NR Islamic Finance due '31 US 350
U.S.
29-Jul-21 10-Aug-26 India Cleantech Energy India Finance company private NR 4.700% sec nts due '26 US 335
Adani Ports & SE Zone U.S. 3.828% sr unsec nts due
26-Jul-21 2-Feb-32 Ltd India Transportation private BBB- '32 US 300
Adani Electricity U.S. 3.867% sec MTNs due
15-Jul-21 22-Jul-31 Mumbai Ltd India Utility private NR '31 US 300
Hyundai-Assan Euro 1.625% gtd sr unsec nts
6-Jul-21 12-Jul-26 Otomotiv Sanayi Turkey Automotive public BBB+ due '26 US 299
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021 (last 90 days); excludes sovereign issuances and China. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table is for foreign currency only
without perpetual. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
27Maturing Debt | EM Financial And Non-Financial
Deals Coming Due In October And November 2021
Issue Maturity S&P issue Issuance (mil.
date date Issuer Economy Sector Market place rating Security description Currency $)
23-Mar- TMB Bk PUBLIC CO 3.108% mdm-trm nts
16 1-Oct-21 LTD (CAYMAN Thailand Banks Euro public BBB- due '21 US 300
30-Mar- 5.375% sr mdm-trm nts
16 6-Oct-21 Turkiye Is Bankasi AS Turkey Banks EURO/144A NR due '21 US 747
2.503% mdm-trm nts
29-Sep-166-Oct-21 RHB Bank Bhd Malaysia Banks Euro public BBB+ due '21 US 500
2.050% mdm-trm nts
5-Oct-16 12-Oct-21MayBank Malaysia Banks Euro private NR due '21 HK 49
4-Oct-18 12-Oct-21CII Mexico Broker Euro public AA Mdm-trm fl nts due '21 US 500
17-Jun-19 12-Oct-21CII Mexico Broker Euro public AA Mdm-trm fl nts due '21 US 250
Grupo Financiero 6.862% sub bnds due
5-Oct-06 13-Oct-21 Banorte SA de Mexico Banks EURO/144A NR '21 US 200
Chemicals, packaging & 3.250% sr unsec nts
5-Oct-16 13-Oct-21UPL Ltd India environmental services EURO/144A BBB- due '21 US 500
COOPEUCH LTDA 1.050% mdm-trm nts
28-Sep-1715-Oct-21 (DNU) Chile Finance company Foreign public NR due '21 SFR 129
International Russian
11-Oct-18 15-Oct-21 Investment Bank Federation Banks Euro public NR Sr unsec nts due '21 RL 75
International Russian 1.503% sr unsec nts
11-Oct-18 15-Oct-21 Investment Bank Federation Banks Euro public NR due '21 EUR 93
Santander Consumer
12-Feb-19 18-Oct-21 Bank Sa Poland Banks Euro public A- Mdm-trm fl nts due '21 SKR 27
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021; excludes sovereign issuances. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table does not include
China deals and for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
28Maturing Debt | EM Financial And Non-Financial
Issue Maturity Market S&P issue Curre Issuance (mil.
date date Issuer Economy Sector place rating Security description ncy $)
Export Import Bank of 2.480% mdm-trm nts
13-Oct-16 20-Oct-21 Malaysia Malaysia Banks Euro public NR due '21 US 500
2.625% mdm-trm nts
17-Oct-16 24-Oct-21BDO Unibank Inc Philippines Banks Euro public NR due '21 US 300
Centrais Eletricas 5.750% sr unsec nts
20-Oct-11 27-Oct-21 Brasileiras Brazil Utility EURO/144A BBB- due '21 US 1,750
Turkiye Vakiflar 5.500% mdm-trm nts
20-Oct-16 27-Oct-21 Bankasi TAO Turkey Banks EURO/144A NR due '21 US 498
KT Kira Sertifikalar 5.136% Islamic Finance
25-Oct-16 2-Nov-21 Varlk Turkey Finance company Euro public NR due '21 US 500
Foreign 0.300% mdm-trm nts
19-Oct-17 2-Nov-21 PKO Bank Polski SA Poland Banks public NR due '21 SFR 410
Metals, mining &
27-Oct-11 3-Nov-21 Codelco Chile steel EURO/144A A 3.875% sr nts due '21 US 1,134
Sixsigma Networks 8.250% fxd/straight bnd
4-Nov-14 7-Nov-21 Mexico Sa Mexico High technology EURO/144A NR due '21 US 500
5.875% loan part certs
27-Oct-16 7-Nov-21 Cbom Finance PLC Russia Broker EURO/144A BB- due '21 US 500
Cia General de
2-Nov-16 7-Nov-21 Combustibles SA Argentina Integrated oil & gas Euro public B- 9.500% glbl nts due '21 US 300
10-Nov- Empresa De Energia
3-Nov-11 21 De Bogota Colombia Utility EURO/144A BB+ 6.125% sen nts due '21 US 610
10-Nov- Empresa De Energia 6.125% sr unsec nts
13-Nov-13 21 De Bogota Colombia Utility EURO/144A BB+ due '21 US 112
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021; excludes sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table does not include China deals and
for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
29Maturing Debt | EM Financial And Non-Financial
Issue Maturity S&P issue Curre Issuance (mil.
date date Issuer Economy Sector Market place rating Security description ncy $)
11-Nov- Mezhdunarodnyi
3-Nov-16 21 Aeroport Russia Transportation Euro public BB+ 5.875% gtd bnd due '21 US 350
12-Nov- Turkiye Garanti 11.500% mdm-trm nts
27-Oct-16 21 Bankasi AS Turkey Banks Euro private BB due '21 TL 64
14-Nov- Global Ports Holding 8.125% fxd/straight bnd
7-Nov-14 21 PLC Turkey Transportation EURO/144A BB- due '21 US 250
15-Nov- Pt Indonesia Asahan 5.710% sr unsec nts
7-Nov-18 21 Aluminium Indonesia Metals, mining & steel U.S. private NR due '21 US 993
16-Nov- Standard Bank of 8.600% mdm-trm nts
6-Dec-06 21 South Africa South Africa Broker Euro public NR due '21 SAR 71
17-Nov- Banco de Credito e
9-Nov-16 21 Inversiones Chile Banks Foreign public NR Zero cpn MTNs due '21 SFR 92
18-Nov- 3.000% grntd bnds due
15-Nov-16 21 KNM Group Bhd Malaysia Integrated oil & gas Euro public NR '21 BA 78
19-Nov- 3.503% gtd sr nts due
7-Dec-09 21 Tricahue Leasing LLC Chile Finance company U.S. public NR '21 US 73
22-Nov- Perusahaan Listrik 5.500% sr unsec nts
21-Nov-11 21 Negara PT Indonesia Utility EURO/144A BB due '21 US 991
23-Nov- PKO Bank Hipoteczny
21-Jan-19 21 SA Poland Broker Euro public NR 0.250% bonds due '21 EUR 568
24-Nov- Petroleos Mexicanos 7.650% grntd bnds due
7-Nov-11 21 SA Mexico Integrated oil & gas EURO/144A A- '21 MP 522
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021; excludes sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table does not include China deals
and for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
30Maturing Debt | EM Financial And Non-Financial
Issue Maturity S&P issue Curre Issuance (mil.
date date Issuer Economy Sector Market place rating Security description ncy $)
24-Nov- Petroleos Mexicanos 7.650% grntd bnds due
7-Nov-11 21 SA Mexico Integrated oil & gas EURO/144A A- '21 MP 224
19-May- 26-Nov- Icbc (Thai) Leasing Co 1.770% sr unsec nts
20 21 Ltd Thailand Finance company Malaysia private NR due '21 BA 28
28-Nov- Santander Chile
10-Nov-16 21 Holding SA Chile Broker EURO/144A A Float rate nts due '21 US 185
29-Nov- Ayudhya Capital Auto 1.730% sr unsec nts
29-Nov-19 21 Lease PCL Thailand Financial institution Malaysia private NR due '21 BA 33
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021; excludes sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means not rated. Table does not include China deals
and for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
31Ratings Summary
Ratings Summary | Sovereigns In September
Economy Rating Outlook 5 Year CDS spread Median rating financials Median rating Non-financials
Argentina CCC+ Stable 2094 CCC+
Brazil BB- Stable 204 BB-
Chile A Stable 88 BBB
China A+ Stable 47 A BBB
Colombia BB+ Stable 168 BB+
India BBB- Stable 89 BBB-
Indonesia BBB Negative 82 B
Malaysia A- Negative 51 BBB+
Mexico BBB Negative 102 BB+ BBB-
Philippines BBB+ Stable 52 BBB+
Poland A- Stable 50 A- BB
Russia BBB- Stable 88 BB BB+
Saudi Arabia A- Stable 54 BBB BBB+
South Africa BB- Stable 210 BB-
Thailand BBB+ Stable 40 A- BBB+
Turkey B+ Stable 426 B+
Note: Foreign currency ratings. Red means speculative-grade rating, and blue means investment-grade rating. Data and CDS spread are as of Sept. 30, 2021. China median rating includes China, Hong Kong, Macau,
Taiwan, and Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Capital IQ.
33Rating Actions | Top 15 By Debt Amount In The Past 90 Days
Debt amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Action type (mil. $)
21-Jul-21 Concern Rossium LLC Russia Bank B B- Upgrade 4,399
20-Aug-21 Genting Bhd. Malaysia Media & entertainment BBB- BBB Downgrade 3,275
Chemicals, packaging &
2-Sep-21 Braskem S.A. (Odebrecht S.A.) Brazil environmental services BBB- BB+ Upgrade 3,250
3-Aug-21 Tata Steel Ltd. India Metals, mining & steel BB BB- Upgrade 2,300
CLISA-Compania Latinoamericana de Infraestructura
13-Aug-21 & Servicios S.A. Argentina Capital goods SD CC Downgrade 1,175
Chemicals, packaging &
30-Sep-21 Braskem Idesa, S.A.P.I. and subsidiary Mexico environmental services B+ B Upgrade 900
21-Sep-21 Holding Co. Metalloinvest JSC Russia Metals, mining & steel BBB- BB+ Upgrade 800
Oil & gas exploration &
18-Aug-21 Serba Dinamik Holdings Berhad Malaysia production CCC B- Downgrade 500
28-Jul-21 Movida Participacoes S.A. (JSP Holding S.A.) Brazil Transportation BB- B+ Upgrade 500
Ratch Group Public Co. Ltd. (Electricity Generating
23-Sep-21 Authority of Thailand) Thailand Utility BBB BBB+ Downgrade 437
12-Aug-21 PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk. Indonesia Automotive B- CCC+ Upgrade 425
28-Sep-21 PT Profesional Telekomunikasi Indonesia Indonesia Telecommunications BBB- BBB Downgrade 133
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021, excludes sovereigns, Greater China and the Red Chip companies and includes only latest rating changes. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
34EM | Total Rating Actions
By Economy
Positive Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions Upgrade Downgrade Negative Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions
60
40
Number Of Issuers
20
0
(20)
(40)
(60)
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Greater India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Poland Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Thailand Turkey
C China
Note: Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Sept. 30, 2021. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
35EM | Total Rating Actions
By Sector
Positive Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions Upgrade Downgrade Negative Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions
40
30
20
Number Of Issuers
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
Aerospace and Banks Business and Chemicals Energy Homebuilders Insurance Metals and Real Estate Sovereign Telecom Transportation
C defense consumer and developers Mining infra
services
Note: Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Sept. 30, 2021. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
36EM | Total Rating Actions By Grade
By Sector
Investment Grade Speculative Grade
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Aerospace and defense
Automotive
Banks
Building materials
Business and consumer services
Capital Goods
Chemicals
Consumer products
Energy
Health care
Homebuilders and developers
Hotels and gaming
Insurance
Media and Entertainment
Metals and Mining
NBFI
Real Estate
Retailing
Sovereign
Technology
Telecom
Transportation
Transportation infra
Utilities
C
Number Of Issuers
Note: Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Sept. 30, 2021. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao, and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
37EM | Total Rating Actions
Negative Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions Downgrade − The rating actions slightly
Upgrade Positive Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions increased from the same period
last year. For September 2021, we
saw four downgrades, one
40
CreditWatch listings/outlook
20 revisions to negative, seven
0 upgrades, and nine CreditWatch
listings/outlook revisions to
Number Of Issuers
-20 positive in EMs.
-40
-60 − The largest number of downgrades
-80 since last February was in May
-100
impact was on credit markets was
-120 deepest.
Sept
Jan
Sept.
March
Dec
Feb
April
Aug
Oct
July
Feb
April
July
May
Nov
Mar
May
June
June
Aug.
− The most CreditWatch
2020 2021
listings/outlook revisions to
negative occurred in April 2020
Data includes sovereigns. Data from Feb. 3, 2020, to Sept. 30, 2021. EMs consist of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
(94).
Thailand, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
38EM Downgrade Potential | By Bias
The Number Of Sectors With Above-Average Downgrade Potential Is Declining Steadily
The Number Of Sectors With Above-Average Downgrade Potential Is Declining Steadily
(%) Count of EM 16 Corporate Sectors With Above-Average Downgrade Potential (RHS) (count)
EM 16 Corporate Negative Bias (LHS)
60 12-mos trailing average EM 16 Corporate Negative Bias (LHS) 18
16
50
14
40 12
10
30
8
20 6
4
10
2
0 0
Dec-11
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Jun-04
Jun-17
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Data as of Sept. 30. 2021. Negative bias is the percentage of ratings with negative outlooks or that are on CreditWatch with negative implications. Count of Corporate Sectors With Above-Average Downgrade Potential shows
the number of sectors with a negative bias that is above the long-term negative bias for that sector. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
39Downgrade Potential | Regional Negative Bias
EM Downgrade Potential Differentiated Across Region − EM Asia (excluding China). The September
2021 downgrade potential was 25%, down
10-Year Average 5-Year Average 09/30/2021
from August 2021 (27%), but much higher
than the five- and 10-year historical
36% averages.
30% − EEMEA. The September downgrade
27% potential (5%) remains the same with the
25% prior month and remains the lowest among
24%
EMs.
20%
19%
17% 17% 16% − LatAm. The September downgrade
potential (27%) was slightly below its five-
year average (36%) but above its 10-year
9% average (30%).
5%
− Greater China. The September downgrade
potential (9%) remains the same with the
C
prior month and is below both of its
EM Asia (ex. China) EEMEA Latin America Greater China historical averages.
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021, and excludes sovereigns. Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. EM Asia: India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Thailand, and the Philippines. EEMEA: Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. Greater China: China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Red
Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
40EM Downgrade Potential | By Sector
The Retail And Restaurants, And Transportation Sectors Lead The September Downgrade Potential
Current Negative Bias (Sept. 30, 2021) 5-Year Averages
Retail (11)
Transportation (14)
Financial institutions (145)
Media/entert (5)
Utilities (68)
Home/RE (57)
Telecommunications (23)
Sector (# of Issuers)
CP&ES (16)
Consumer products (33)
Forest (9)
Automotive (11)
Capital goods (13)
High technology (13)
Insurance (21)
Oil & Gas (22)
Metals/mining/steel (33)
Health care (5)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Negative Bias
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021, and includes sectors with more than five issuers only; excludes sovereigns. EMs consist of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines,
Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. Greater China--China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Red Chip companies. Media/entert--Media and entertainment, Retail--Retail/restaurants, CP&ES--Chemicals,
packaging, and environmental services, Home/RE--Homebuilders/real estate companies, Forest -- Forest products and building materials. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
41By Sector
Neg/Negative Stable Pos/Positive
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Debt (US$Mn)
3000
2000
1000
0
Based on local currency ratings. CP&ES -- Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services, Metals/mining/steel -- Metals, mining and steel, Retail -- Retail/restaurants, Media/entert -- Media and entertainment,
Home/RE -- Homebuilders/real estate co., and Forest -- Forest products and building materials. Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
42Rating Actions | -
Debt amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From (mil.)
Oil and gas exploration and
8-May-20 YPF S.A Argentina production CCC+ B- 1,969
18-Jun-20 Oi S.A. Brazil Telecommunications CC B- 1,654
8-May-20 Pampa Energia S.A. Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 1,550
27-Apr-20 CAR Inc. Cayman Islands Transportation CCC B- 557
30-Apr-20 PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk. Indonesia Homebuilders/real estate CCC+ B- 545
8-May-20 Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS) (Compania De Inversiones de Energia S.A.) Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 500
8-Apr-20 GCL New Energy Holdings Ltd. (GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd.) Bermuda Utilities CCC B- 500
17-Mar-20 IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. (Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A.) Argentina Homebuilders/real estate CCC+ B- 431
8-May-20 Telecom Argentina S.A. Argentina Telecommunications CCC+ B- 400
29-Apr-20 Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A. Argentina Utilities CC B- 400
19-Jun-20 PT Modernland Realty Tbk. Indonesia Homebuilders/real estate CCC B- 390
16-Mar-20 Banco Hipotecario S.A. Argentina Bank CCC B- 350
6-Apr-20 Grupo Kaltex, S.A. de C.V. Mexico Consumer products CCC B- 320
13-Jan-20 Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 300
Oil and gas exploration and
8-May-20 Compania General de Combustibles S.A. Argentina production CCC+ B- 300
8-May-20 CAPEX S.A. Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 300
8-May-20 AES Argentina Generacion S.A (AES Corp. (The)) Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 300
9-Apr-20 PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk. Indonesia Automotive CCC+ B- 250
8-May-20 Banco De Galicia Y Buenos Aires S.A.U. Argentina Bank CCC+ B- 250
19-Mar-20 PT MNC Investama Tbk. Indonesia Media and entertainment CCC B- 231
8-Apr-20 Pearl Holding III Ltd. China Automotive CCC+ B- 175
13-Apr-20 Compania de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension TRANSENER S.A. Argentina Utilities CCC+ B- 99
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Dec. 31, 2020; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
43Rating Actions | -
-
Debt amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From (mil. $)
22-Apr-21 Alpha Holding S.A. de C.V. Mexico Financial institutions CCC B- 300
18-Jun-21 Sichuan Languang Development Co., Ltd. China Homebuilders/real estate co. CCC- B- 750
5-Aug-21 China Evergrande Group Cayman Islands Homebuilders/real estate co. CCC B- 16,260
18-Aug-21 Serba Dinamik Holdings Berhad Malaysia Oil & gas exploration & production CCC B- 500
22-Sep-21 Xinyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd. Cayman Islands Homebuilders/real estate co. CCC B- 300
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Sept. 30, 2021; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
44Rating Actions | EM Fallen Angels In 2020 And 2021 YTD
Debt
amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From (mil. $)
15-Jun-20 Embraer S.A. Brazil Aerospace and defense BB+ BBB- 500
26-Jun-20 Axis Bank Ltd. India Bank BB+ BBB- 1,095
8-Jul-20 Braskem S.A. (Odebrecht S.A.) Brazil Chemicals, packaging and environmental services BB+ BBB- 4,150
14-Jul-20 Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. China Metals, mining and steel BB+ BBB- 350
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Dec. 31, 2020; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
Five EM fallen angels so far in 2021 including one sovereign.
Debt
amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From (mil. $)
25-Mar-21 Empresa Nacional del Petroleo Chile Utilities BB+ BBB- 2,480
19-May-21 Republic of Colombia Colombia Sovereign BB+ BBB- 30,184
20-May-21 Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana S.A. Colombia Diversified BB+ BBB- 550
Financiera de Desarrollo Territorial S.A.
20-May-21 FINDETER Colombia Bank BB+ BBB- 500
20-May-21 Ecopetrol S.A. Colombia Integrated oil & gas BB+ BBB- 9,850
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Sept. 30, 2021; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
45Rating Actions | EM Rising Stars In 2020 And 2021 YTD
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Debt amount (mil. $)
Mobile TeleSystems PJSC (Sistema
17-Sep-20 (PJSFC)) Russia Telecommunications BBB- BB+ 1,000
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Dec. 31, 2020; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
Five EM rising stars so far in 2021.
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Debt amount (mil. $)
12-Apr-21 Sovcomflot PAO Russia Transportation BBB- BB+ 750
8-Apr-21 Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. Cayman Islands Homebuilders/real estate co. BBB- BB+ 2,100
Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua S.A.B.
18-Mar-21 de C.V. Mexico Forest products & building materials BBB- BB+ 260
Chemicals, packaging & environmental
2-Sep-21 Braskem S.A. (Odebrecht S.A.) Brazil services BBB- BB+ 3,250
21-Sep-21 Holding Co. Metalloinvest JSC Russia Metals, mining & steel BBB- BB+ 800
Debt volume includes subsidiaries and excludes zero debt. Note: Red means speculative-grade rating. Data as of Sept. 30, 2021; includes sovereigns and Greater China and Red Chips companies. Source: S&P Global
Ratings Research.
46Rating Actions | List Of Defaulters In 2020 And 2021 YTD
Action Debt
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From type amount (mil. $)
14-Jan-20 Qinghai Provincial Investment Group Co. Ltd. China Metals, mining and steel D CCC- Downgrade 850
21-Jan-20 Panda Green Energy Group Ltd. Bermuda Utilities SD CC Downgrade 350
21-Jan-20 Republic of Argentina Argentina Sovereign SD CCC- Downgrade 137,602
21-Feb-20 Tunghsu Group Co. Ltd., China High technology SD CCC- Downgrade 390
Cayman Homebuilders/real
27-Mar-20 Yida China Holdings Ltd. Islands estate SD CC Downgrade 300
7-Apr-20 Republic of Argentina Argentina Sovereign SD CCC- Downgrade 139,092
10-Apr-20 Vestel Elektronik Sanayi Ve Ticaret A.S. Turkey High technology SD CCC+ Downgrade -
Media and
24-Apr-20 Enjoy S.A. Chile entertainment D B- Downgrade 300
11-May-20 Yihua Enterprise (Group) Co. Ltd. China Consumer products SD CCC Downgrade -
19-May-20 Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A. Argentina Utilities SD CC Downgrade 750
27-May-20 Latam Airlines Group S.A. Chile Transportation D CCC- Downgrade 1,800
2-Jun-20 Grupo Famsa, S.A.B. de C.V. Mexico Retail/restaurants SD CCC- Downgrade 81
1-Jul-20 Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Mexico Transportation D B- Downgrade 400
Media and
1-Jul-20 Grupo Posadas, S. A. B. de C. V. Mexico entertainment D CC Downgrade 400
Homebuilders/real
8-Jul-20 PT Modernland Realty Tbk. Indonesia estate SD CCC- Downgrade 390
9-Oct-20 Oi S.A. Brazil Telecommunications SD CC Downgrade 1,654
Data is by end of year for 2020, and as of Sept. 30 for 2021. Includes both rated and zero debt defaults. Includes sovereigns, Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Excludes five confidential issuers in 2020 and five
in 2021 YTD. D Default; SD Selective Default. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.
47Rating Actions |
Action Debt amount
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From type (mil. $)
14-Oct-20 Banco Hipotecario S.A. Argentina Bank SD CC Downgrade 350
Corp Group Banking S.A. (Inversiones CorpGroup
16-Oct-20 Interhold, Ltda.) Chile Financial institutions D CC Downgrade 500
28-Oct-20 PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk. Indonesia Homebuilders/real estate co. D CC Downgrade 545
IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. (Cresud
12-Nov-20 S.A.C.I.F. y A.) Argentina Homebuilders/real estate co. SD CC Downgrade 360
Oil & gas exploration &
26-Feb-21 YPF S.A Argentina production SD CC Downgrade 2,900
Cayman Homebuilders/real estate
2-Mar-21 Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd.(A) Islands companies SD CCC- Downgrade -
13-Apr-21 YPF Energia Electrica S.A. (YPF S.A) Argentina Utilities SD CCC- Downgrade 400
27-Apr-21 Maxcom Telecomunicaciones, S.A.B. de C.V. Mexico Telecommunications D CCC- Downgrade 57
28-Apr-21 Future Retail Ltd. India Retail/restaurants SD CCC- Downgrade 500
Homebuilders/real estate
13-Jul-21 Sichuan Languang Development Co. Ltd., China companies D CCC- Downgrade -
20-Jul-21 Alpha Holding S.A. de C.V. Mexico Financial Institutions D CC Downgrade 300
Data is by end of year for 2020, and as of Sept. 30 for 2021. Includes both rated and zero debt defaults. Includes sovereigns, Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Excludes five confidential issuers in 2020 and five
in 2021 YTD. D Default; SD Selective Default. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.
48Rating Actions |
Rating date Issuer Economy Sector To From Action type Debt amount (mil. $)
Homebuilders/real
11-Aug-21 Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. (B) Cayman Islands estate companies SD CCC- Downgrade -
CLISA-Compania Latinoamericana de
13-Aug-21 Infraestructura & Servicios S.A. Argentina Capital goods SD CC Downgrade 905
Data is by end of year for 2020, and as of Sept. 30 for 2021. Includes both rated and zero debt defaults. Includes sovereigns, Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Excludes five confidential issuers in 2020 and five
in 2021 YTD. D Default; SD Selective Default. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.
49Rating Actions | Fallen Angels And Potential Fallen Angels
Five EM Fallen Angels In 2021 YTD, The Potential Fallen Angels (PFA) Level Inches Down
− Five EM fallen angels. Through
Fallen Angels Average Potential Fallen Angels September 2021, Chile based Empresa
40 Nacional del Petroleo and four Colombia-
30 based entities, including the sovereign,
Issuers
20 were the fallen angels in EMs.
10 − Among the current EM PFAs, there were
0 none on CreditWatch, indicating lower
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 immediate downgrade risk, as potential
C fallen angels with negative outlooks
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Parent only. Include Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
typically have a one-in-three chance of a
downgrade within two years of receiving
the negative outlook.
EM PFAs By Economy − The number of global PFAs fell to 46 in
Sept. 30, 2021 PFAs Oct. 12, 2020 PFAs September decreased, representing
6 close to $232 billion in debt. The sectors
with the largest amounts of associated
4 debt include aerospace and defense (with
PFA Count of
$61 billion) and media and entertainment
Issuers
2 (with $48 billion).
0 − For more information, see
Brazil Chile Greater China Colombia India Indonesia M&A Rebound Could Put The Corporate
C
Credit Recovery On The Back Burner
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Include Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
published Oct. 11, 2021.
50Rating Actions | Rising Stars And Potential Rising Stars
Five EM Rising Stars So Far In 2021
Rising Stars Average Potential Rising Stars − Five EM rising stars. Through
20 September 2021, there were two from
15 Russia, and one each rising star from
Brazil, the Cayman Islands, and
Issuers
10
Mexico.
5
− Among the current EM Potential
0 Rising Starts (PRS), there were none
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 on CreditWatch positive.
Year
−
C
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Parent only. Include Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
Globally, there were 25 PRS in
September. Of the PRS (issuers rated
'BB+' with positive outlooks or ratings
EM PRS By Economy on CreditWatch with positive
implications), the largest amounts of
Sept. 30, 2021 PRSs Oct. 12, 2020 PRSs associated debt are in health care
(with $37.6 billion) and consumer
PRS Count of
4
3 products sectors (with 21.9 billion).
Issuers
2
1
− 'BBB'
0 Pulse: M&A Rebound Could Put The
Brazil Mexico South Africa Russia Greater China Corporate Credit Recovery On The
Economy Back Burner
C
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Include Red Chip companies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.
51Rating Actions | Weakest Links And Defaults
EM Weakest Links Reached Record Highs In 2020
− Weakest links. EMs saw 11
Weakest Links Count (left scale) Weakest Link Share of Speculative-Grade Population (%) (right scale) issuers on the weakest links list
40 20%
Number of Issuers
(nearly 5% of total speculative-
30 15% grade issuers), reflecting default
prospects for the weakest issuers.
20 10%
10 5%
− Default rates. The August default
0 0%
rates slightly increased for all
Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21
regions, except for EM Asia
Data as of Sept. 30, 2021 (OLCW). Parent only. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research . (excluding China; see chart). The
August default rate in EEMEA was
Default Rates Fell Across Regions After Reaching Record Level In 2020 stable compared with that of the
prior month.
EM Asia (ex. China) EEMEA Latin America Emerging Markets (ex. China)
Latin America, 3.99
8
Default Rate (%)
− The
6 Emerging Markets
Global Weakest Links Tally
(ex. China), 2.84
4 Reaches Pre-Pandemic Levels
EM Asia (ex. China), 2.04 published Sept. 29, 2021.
2
EEMEA, 0.00
0
C
Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21
CreditPro data as of Aug. 31, 2021. Default rates are trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rates. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market
Intelligence's CreditPro®.
52Rating Actions | Defaults
Year-End Global Corporate Defaults By Reason
Bankruptcy-Related Distressed Exchanges / Out-Of-Court Restructuring
Missed principal/interest payments and default on financial obligations Regulatory Intervention
Confidential
Number Of Defaults
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
*Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Data has been updated to reflect confidential issuers. Excludes sovereigns, includes Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global
Year-End EM 16 Corporate Defaults By Reason
Bankruptcy-Related Distressed Exchanges / Out-Of-Court Restructuring
Missed principal/interest payments and default on financial obligations Regulatory Intervention
25 Confidential
20
Number Of
15
Defaults
10
5
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
*Data as of Sept. 30, 2021. Data has been updated to reflect confidential issuers. Excludes sovereigns, includes Greater China, and Red Chip companies. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global
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