Digitalisation and the Belgian labour market - Shaping the future of work - Agoria
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Digitalisation and the Belgian labour market
Shaping the future of work
Table of contents 1 What you absolutely should know ...................................................... 04 2 The labour market through to 2030 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 08 3 Four strategies for a sustainable labour market .............................. 16 4 From study to action: a programme for the future .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Shaping the Future of Work is a study performed by Agoria in cooperation with VDAB, Forem and Actiris and created by Roland Berger on behalf of Agoria © Agoria - September 2018 The content of this study shall not be published, reproduced, translated or adapted in whole or in part in any format and shall not be stored in an automated data file without Agoria’s express prior consent. Agoria does authorise the publication of this study (for non-commercial purposes), provided that the source is acknowledged (and distribution is free). Agoria makes every effort to ensure that the information in this study is as complete, accurate and up-to-date as possible, but cannot guarantee that the provided information is free from shortcomings. Agoria shall not be held liable for any damage resulting from incorrect information in the study or arising from the use of this information.
A first for Belgium and Europe
Inleiding
Are robots making human labour superfluous? Will labour market in the coming years. The overview is based
digitalisation lead to job losses? Everyone knows that the on interviews with more than 60 experts and well-informed
De Belgische telecomsector geldt als een belangrijke beh
way we supply our products and services is undergoing observers.
stuwende kracht voor de economie. We vormen dan in in
massive changes but, until now, the impact of these
ook het kloppend hart van de digitale samenleving en
dynamics on the labour market has never been accurately The labour market is transforming fast and this affects Enke
zijn vastbesloten om ook de toekomst op dit vlak veilig
measured. Agoria has worked with regional employment everyone. Fortunately, we have the opportunity to deze
te stellen.
agencies VDAB, Forem and Actiris and used a tool developed approach this transformation with confidence, even digit
especially by Roland Berger to obtain a detailed overview though adjustments
Zoals must
de informatie in be
dit made.
boekjeTo this end,worden
aantoont, we onze ond
of the upcoming evolution in the national labour market: provide a number
klanten echterofalmaar
recommendations
veeleisender grouped into kwaliteit,
qua volume, en a
the first of its kind in Europe. four snelheid,
employment development
veiligheid strategies. WeWij
en betrouwbaarheid. would
van onze kant bela
also ontwikkelen
like to make an appeal:
intussen Letdynamisch
een us all implement these ten
serviceaanbod sluit
Shaping the Future of Work presents the results of the analysis recommendations together – people in politics, education,
and recommendations. A summary of this publication is business, everyone. Let us be the change!
provided in this booklet. We now know the major trends
on the national labour market through to 2030 and the
evolution for each region, sector and job profile. Shaping
the Future of Work also provides an overview of the digital MarcMARC
Lambotte JEAN-MICHEL PETER HANS
LAMBOTTE ADANT VEENMAN WITDOUCK
competencies and related skills people will need on the CEO CEO
Agoria MANAGING DIRECTOR MANAGING DIRECTOR CEO
AGORIA BRUTÉLÉ COLT TECHNOLOGY EUROFIBER
SERVICES
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 3
1 4 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET
1 I WHAT YOU ABSOLUTELY SHOULD KNOW
What you absolutely should know
Digitalisation has a major impact on the labour
market. Some 4.5 million workers will have to upskill 4.5 million
WORKING PEOPLE NEED
regularly. Some jobs will disappear and others will TO UPSKILL
change. But above all, many new vacancies will arise.
If we fail to take action, as many as 584,000 Belgian
vacancies will remain unfilled in 2030. This means we 584,000
UNFILLED VACANCIES
would miss out on €60 billion of additional GDP in IN BELGIUM IN 2030
2030. Additionally, 310,000 workers and unemployed
people will require retraining for a new, sustainable
job. If this is done, we will avoid job losses with
310,000
WORKERS AND UNEMPLOYED
a GDP value of €35 billion. In total, 95 billion euros are PEOPLE IN RETRAINING
at stake in 2030 alone, or 16.5% of GDP.
95 billion euros
of GDP
AT STAKE IN 2030 ALONE
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 5
1 I WHAT YOU ABSOLUTELY SHOULD KNOW
Shifts in the labour market
DECLINING CHANGING INCREASING NEW
n Unskilled manual n Sales representative n Nursings and n Mobility planner
labourer n Shop assistant caring staff n Consumption coach
n Cashier and n Production operator n Digital expert n Information filtering,
counter clerk n Scientist and processing
n Administrative clerk engineer and security
6 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET
1 I WHAT YOU ABSOLUTELY SHOULD KNOW
The ideal candidate of the
future will be the result of
‘co-creation’, not recruitment:
companies will have to offer
resources and clear paths
allowing candidates to
develop, and candidates will
have to be motivated and
willing to invest their time!
Jeroen Franssen
Lead Expert Talent and Labour Market
Agoria
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 7
2 I DE ARBEIDSMARKT TOT 2030
2
8 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET2 I THE LABOUR MARKET THROUGH TO 2030
The labour market
through to 2030
Not one industry in the Belgian
The digitalisation and economic dynamics that have already
economy will escape the
started will certainly lead to job losses. However, for every
job that is not demanded anymore in the future, there will consequences of digitalisation,
be 3.7 new ones demanded. The demand for workers will but the impact will be different
exceed the supply as of 2021. The gap between supply and on each sector. We already
demand will continue to grow until at least 2030. The content know the extent of the effect.
of many jobs will also change in the period through to 2030,
making further education and retraining necessary.
Patrick Slaets
More jobs available
Chief Data Analyst
Agoria
Between now and 2030, the demand for labour in Belgium
will increase by 0.9% every year. This means that by 2030,
total labour demand will increase by 629,000 jobs. The service
industry, education and healthcare will experience the most
significant increases. Today, these sectors show a relatively
low digitalisation rate.
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 92 I THE LABOUR MARKET THROUGH TO 2030
CURRENT LABOUR DEMAND (2016)
% of total 100 16.6 14.3 13.4 9.2 8.3 6.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 3.7 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.2
employment
Vacancy rate 2.5 3.4 2.5 1.6 2.3 1.6 3.3 2.5 3.6 2.3 2.4 2.1 5.5 1.6 2.1 0.3 0.3
(in % of labour demand)
STEM/ICT employees 11 8 5 3 7 4 22 10 24 11 0 9 66 28 21 0 31
(% of employed people)
4,777 794
121 27
2016 labour demand 4,656 767
in thousands 681
17
664
640
10
630
438
10
428
7
398
391
328
11
317 284
7 277 233
8 225 208 178
TOTAL
3
205 4
3
137 129 109 97 66 56
174 7 0 66 1 55
134 122 2 107 2 95
Services to companies
and individuals
Wholesale and retail
Healthcare
Public sector
Education
Construction
Transport and logistics
Metal and electrical
engineering
Food, textile, woodwork
and construction
Catering
Financial sector
ICT
Chemicals and
pharmaceuticals
Media and digital
entertainment
Agriculture
Utilities
Vacancies
Employment
Higher than average share
Source: National Bank of Belgium, Statbel, Forem, VDAB, Actiris, Agoria, Roland Berger
10 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET2 I THE LABOUR MARKET THROUGH TO 2030
EVOLUTION OF LABOUR DEMAND (2016-2030)
Labour demand
Growth annual growth
in demand
2016-2030 5,406,000 percentage
+ 629,000
4,777,000
+ 864,000
774,000 +0.6%
-235,000
712,000 Labour Labour
demand demand
losses gains
by 2030 by 2030 1,412,000 +0.8%
1,267,000
3,220,000
+1.0%
2,798,000
+0.9%
Labour demand Labour demand
2016 2030
Source: National Bank of Belgium; Federal Planning Agency; CEDEFOP; Agoria; Roland Berger
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 112 I THE LABOUR MARKET THROUGH TO 2030
EVOLUTION OF LABOUR DEMAND PER SECTOR (2016-2030)
-32,000
4.0
Metal
+ 151,000
Annual labour productivity growth (in %)
Catering
and elec-
Agriculture trical engi-
3.5 neering Public
sector
+ 510,000
Chemicals and
pharmaceuticals
3.0
Utilities
2.5 Media
and digital Financial
entertainment sector ICT Services to
Food, companies
2.0 textile, wood- and individuals
work and Wholesale
construction and retail
1.5 Construction
Education Healthcare
1.0 Transport
and
logistics
0.5
0
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Annual labour demand growth (in %)
Source: National Bank of Belgium; Federal Planning Agency; CEDEFOP; Agoria; Roland Berger
12 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET2 I THE LABOUR MARKET THROUGH TO 2030 DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 13
2 I THE LABOUR MARKET THROUGH TO 2030
Limited inflow of labour supply
As demand for jobs rises by 0.9% education. Other factors such as Measures must be taken to fill these
annually until 2030, labour supply migration play only a limited role. vacancies. This forecast takes into
increases by only 0.3% annually in From 2021, the inflow will therefore account the gradual increase of the
the same period. This growth in supply no longer be sufficient to meet the retirement age to 67 in 2030.
is mainly due to the outflow from growing demand for labour.
LABOUR MARKET INFLOW AND OUTFLOW (2016-2030)
+160,000 5,070,000
-50,000
4,900,000 Migration Other factors
Unemployment - Death
250,000 -1,670,000 +1,730,000
- Incapacity for work
+ Employment
Employment activation
4,650,000 Outflow Inflow
due to of school
retirement leavers
Labour supply 2016 Labour supply 2030
Source: National Bank of Belgium; Federal Planning Agency; CEDEFOP; Agoria; Roland Berger
14 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET2 I THE LABOUR MARKET THROUGH TO 2030
584,000 unfilled jobs by 2030
% OF LABOUR DEMAND THAT WILL REMAIN
UNFILLED IN 2030: TOP 3 SECTORS
On average, one in 10 vacancies in Belgium (11%) is at
risk of not being filled in 2030 due to insufficiently adapt-
ed competencies and a structural shortage of workers.
However, there are clear differences between the
18%
regions and sectors. Flanders (12%) and Brussels
(10%) are most at risk and Wallonia (7%) the least.
The healthcare (18%), ICT (18%) and education (13%)
Healthcare
sectors will experience the most difficulties filling
vacancies. This is mainly due to an increasing demand
for employees and the limited influx of graduates.
18%
ICT
1 in 10 13%
Education
If we do nothing, 1 in 10 vacancies
will not be filled in 2030.
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 153 16 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET
3 I FOUR STRATEGIES
Four strategies
for a sustainable labour market
The previous section provided a concise macroeconomic analysis of the national labour market and identified
some differences between regions and sectors. Agoria has also conducted a microeconomic analysis of 75 job
profiles. This comprehensive approach has allowed us to make concrete labour market recommendations
through to 2030 and to implement the right measures in advance together with all stakeholders.
We have grouped the
recommendations into
four strategic categories:
Upskilling Retraining Activation Productivity
Skills upgrading, retraining and activation alone are not sufficient to fill all vacancies.
A further rise in productivity is necessary to compensate for the demand for jobs.
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 173 I FOUR STRATEGIES
DIGITAL SKILLS INDICATOR BY PROFILE FOR 2016-2030 (IN % OF SKILLS)
STRATEGY 1
Upskilling of 75
all employees
ACTION x 1.2
1 I Proactively upgrade the 50
digital and accompanying x 1.4
skills of 4.5 million workers
The digitalisation and economic
x 1.3
25
dynamics will have an impact on
the content of almost all jobs at all x 1.5
levels. The average required level of
digital competencies is increasing
everywhere, and the required level 0
of general skills is also on the rise. 2016 2030
Almost all workers will feel the wind
of change. Labourers Administrative & technical personnel
Experts Managers
Source: Roland Berger
18 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET3 I FOUR STRATEGIES
STRATEGY 2
Retraining workers and the unemployed
It will be essential to always
ACTION
2 I Targeted communications on opportunities on the labour
think in terms of the ‘team’.
market The team of the future will
3 I Develop professional retraining programmes for the
include human co-workers,
unemployed
4 I Launch retraining programmes for job profiles that are but also artificially intelligent
at risk robots and cobots.
5 I Facilitate travel between regions
6 I Increase labour market flexibility and implement changes
to the social security system to make it easier for people to
switch to a sustainable job
Mieke Vermeiren
Chief Expert Talent and Labour Market
310,000 (working and unemployed) people must be retrained
Agoria
by 2030 to ensure they have sustainable jobs. Agoria proposes
five measures to achieve this. Some people (150,000) will need
moderate retraining that takes two to six months. Others (160,000)
require intensive retraining during six to eighteen months.
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 193 I FOUR STRATEGIES
I
STRATEGY 3
Activating the unemployed
Employment activation
ACTION
584,000 vacancies will not be filled in 2030 if we fail to
implement the necessary measures. To meet this high 7 I Increase the financial difference of people
demand for workers, people will need to be activated as working and not working
much as possible. The Shaping the Future of Work analysis 8 I Make it easier to achieve work-life balance
indicates that 268,000 vacancies will be filled through 9 I Increase the employability of unskilled workers
activation. In Shaping the Future of Work, Agoria proposes through technology
various activation measures. 10 I Improve access to employment for people with
an immigration background
We have divided these into four categories: 11 I Adjust the working conditions of workers over 55
and make their pay less dependent on seniority
I Activating the unemployed and more dependent on their market value
12 I Accelerate the phasing out of the early
II Encouraging economic migration
retirement system
III Working more hours and/or working longer
IV Ensuring study programmes and students’ choices The implementation of the above six action items
are more in line with labour demand will fill 193,000 vacancies.
20 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET3 I FOUR STRATEGIES
II
Fuelling economic migration
ACTION
13 I Attract economic immigrants specifically for high-demand jobs
Proactive economic migration will fill 29,000 vacancies. Economic
migration is particularly useful as a solution for specific sectors with
the highest number of vacancies, such as healthcare and ICT.
Below you will find some job profiles that can be partially filled by
stimulating economic migration and a forecast of the total number
of vacancies in 2030.
Sector Job Vacancies
Healthcare Nurse 73,000
Cross-sector Digital expert 53,000
Services Cleaner and domestic help 16,000
ICT Software developer and IT business consultant 15,000
Cross-sector Engineer 14,000
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 213 I FOUR STRATEGIES
III
Working more and/or working longer Please find below some job profiles that can be partially filled by
encouraging people to work longer and a forecast of the total number
ACTION of vacancies in 2030.
14 I Offer incentives to work more and/or work longer Sector Job Vacancies
15 I Encourage taking on specific roles, such as coaching/
Cross-sector Technician 29,000
training at the end of a career
Education Teacher in nursery and primary education 27,000
Teacher in secondary education 16,000
At least 15,000 vacancies can be filled by giving people
Cross-sector Carer 6,000
who are approaching the end of their careers the oppor-
tunity to work longer. Incentives to extend careers are
particularly useful in education and for specific cross-
sector profiles, such as technicians. In certain sectors Below are some job profiles that can be partially filled by encouraging
and for certain profiles, alternative work may encourage people to work more and a forecast of the total number of vacancies
people to extend their careers. in 2030.
Sector Job Vacancies
Healthcare Doctor 20,000
Cross-sector Digital expert 53,000
Transport & logistics Mechanic 3,000
Metal & electrical engineering Electrical engineer 4,000
22 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET3 I FOUR STRATEGIES
IV
Ensuring that study programmes and students’
choices are more in line with labour demand
The positive prospects
ACTION
of our study provide a
16 I Inform students better on labour market evolution
favourable climate for
17 I Introduce financial and other mechanisms to encourage young
people to choose courses that are geared towards the future taking effective measures.
18 I Increase the budget for STEM study programmes This means we can promote
19 I Give digital and related skills a more prominent place in all
study programmes
the evolution of skills that
digitalisation requires.
If students should choose fields of study that are in demand at
companies more frequently, 31,000 vacancies could be filled.
To achieve this, a wide range of measures is needed. Students
should be informed better and targeted measures can be taken to
reward ‘favourable study choices’. In view of the existing demand Bart Steukers
for STEM profiles, the budget for STEM programmes should be Director, Project Manager
increased and digital and related skills given a more prominent Shaping the Future of Work
place in all fields of study. Agoria
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 233 I FOUR STRATEGIES 24 I DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET
3 I FOUR STRATEGIES
RESULTS OF STRATEGIES 3 & 4
STRATEGY 4
Increase productivity
ACTION
268,0000
20 I Reduce labour demand through accelerated
Activation
digitalisation, particularly in education, increases
healthcare and service sectors labour supply
Only some of the 584,000 unfilled vacancies can 584,000
be filled through employment activation. There Total number
of unfilled Productivity
will still be 316,000 job vacancies after activation.
vacancies 208,0000
A more intensive increase in productivity is there-
increase
reduces
fore required. The easiest way to achieve this is to
labour demand
speed up automation and digitalisation in the
sectors with the highest number of vacancies.
Natural
108,000 vacancies
By increasing productivity, we can respond to 208,000
extra jobs. Of the 584,000 unfilled vacancies, 108,000
will remain, which is 2% of the active labour force in
2030. We regard this as the ‘natural vacancy rate’.
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 254 I VAN STUDIE TOT ACTIE: EEN PROGRAMMA VOOR DE TOEKOMST
4
26 I TELECOM,
DIGITALISATION
SOCIETY
ANDAND
THEECONOMY
BELGIAN LABOUR
IN BELGIUM
MARKET4 I FROM STUDY TO ACTION: A PROGRAMME FOR THE FUTURE
From study to action:
a programme for the future
The far-reaching changes in the labour market outlined briefly in this summary
require a joint approach. After all, work in the future is of interest to everyone:
governments, companies and federations, educational institutions, those who are
working and those who are not.
Be the change Request a presentation
Agoria wants to investigate other potential measures in a dialogue Agoria offers customised presentations on Shaping the Future
with all stakeholders to make the most of opportunities that of Work with the most relevant findings and recommendati-
present themselves. Be the change calls on everyone to come up ons for your region, sector or company. We also have a ge-
with ideas and actions for the ‘work of the future’. The programme neral introductory presentation with the content provided
will include debates, workshops and training courses. in this summary.
> Follow us at: > Contact Jeroen Franssen to request the presentation you need:
www.agoria.be/en/bethechange jeroen.franssen@agoria.be
DIGITALISATION AND THE BELGIAN LABOUR MARKET I 27This is a summary of Shaping the Future of Work.
The first thorough study of the Belgian labour market through to 2030
n Trends for Belgium, the three Belgian regions, 16 business sectors and 75 job profiles
n Quantitative and qualitative forecast
Responsible publisher: Agoria vzw, Reyerslaan 80, 1030 Brussels, Belgium
n Job losses, gains and trends
n Number of vacancies and unemployment per region, sector and profile
n Inflow and outflow of workers
n Gap between supply and demand
n Digital skills for the future
n Recommendations and call for action and cooperationYou can also read
