DFO Jindalee Market review and sales potential - September 2015
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DFO Jindalee
Market review and sales potential
September 2015MacroPlan Dimasi MELBOURNE SYDNEY Level 4 Level 4 356 Collins Street 39 Martin Place Melbourne VIC 3000 Sydney NSW 2000 (03) 9600 0500 (02) 9221 5211 BRISBANE GOLD COAST Level 15 Level 2 111 Eagle Street 89 -91 Surf Parade Brisbane QLD 4000 Broadbeach QLD 4218 (07) 3221 8166 (07) 3221 8166 ADELAIDE PERTH Ground Floor Level 1 89 King William Street 89 St Georges Terrace Adelaide SA 5000 Perth WA 6000 (08) 8221 6332 (08) 9225 7200 Prepared for: Riva Ridge Pty Ltd MacroPlan Dimasi staff responsible for this report: Tony Dimasi, Managing Director – Retail James Turnbull, Senior Manager – Retail Adelaide Timbrell, Analyst
Table of contents
Executive summary i
Introduction v
Section 1: Outlet centres: Key success factors 1
1.1 History of outlet centre retail 1
1.2 Australian outlet centre experience 2
1.3 Key success criteria 3
Section 2: Centre location, composition and performance 7
2.1 Location and context 7
2.2 Centre composition and trading performance 10
2.3 Recent historical performance 12
Section 3: Trade area analysis 13
3.1 Trade area definition 13
3.2 Trade area population 17
3.3 Socio-demographic profile 21
3.4 Retail expenditure 24
Section 4: Competitive framework 31
4.1 Outlet retail centres 31
4.2 Traditional retail shopping centres 33
Section 5: DFO Jindalee future outlook 35
5.1 Recent retail trends 35
5.2 Current market share and base sales potential 36Executive summary
This report provides an assessment of the market served by DFO Jindalee and a high level
analysis of the sales and expansion potential for the centre. The following key points
summarise our analysis:
• DFO Jindalee is a factory outlet centre located in south-western Brisbane, collocated with
the Jindalee Home large format retail centre, which together create a substantial retail
precinct with around 40,000 sq.m of retail and ancillary floorspace.
• DFO Jindalee occupies a very prominent position on the Centenary Highway, at the
Sinnamon Road turn off, which provides convenient access to the south-western suburbs
of Brisbane including the growing Greater Springfield and Ripley Valley growth areas, as
well as Ipswich.
Centre composition & performance
• DFO Jindalee contains 16,485 sq.m of gross lettable area (GLA), and included 13,829 sq.m
of retail GLA as at June 2015. Since 2011, DFO Jindalee has improved considerably, with
tenancy improvements including the introduction of Nike, Adidas, and Kathmandu, which
together have strengthened enormously the northern end of the centre’s main mall.
• Furthermore, a development application has been submitted to Brisbane City Council for
an expansion of the centre of around 2,500 – 3,000 sq.m, which would entail the
reconfiguration of existing tenancies as well as 6 new tenancies in a new mall to the east
of the centre. We understand that a decision regarding this application is imminent.
• DFO Jindalee achieved growth in annual sales of 25% over the period 2011 - 2015, in spite
of major expansions at Mount Ommaney SC in 2011/12, and Indooroopilly in 2014/15.
Sales increased from $35.9 million to $44.8 million (ex GST), between 2011 and 2015,
partly due to an increase in floorspace but also due to improvements in sales per sq.m, as
a result of the improved tenant mix.
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Market review and sales potentialExecutive summary
• Annual gross rent paid by retailers at DFO Jindalee totalled $4.3 million for the year to
July 2015, at an average rate of $338 per sq.m, with an addition $0.6 million in gross rent
generated from the Goodlife Health Club.
Trade area
• DFO Jindalee serves a trade area consisting of a large primary sector, two secondary
sectors and a tertiary sector, generally including much of south-west Brisbane and
Ipswich. The total trade area population served by DFO Jindalee is estimated at 488,400
in 2015, including some 379,100 residents in the main trade area and close to
198,000 residents in the primary sector.
• Massive future population growth is expected to occur in both of the secondary sectors,
with the secondary south including the ongoing growth in the Greater Springfield area
and the secondary north sector undergoing massive urban renewal.
• The total trade area population is estimated to increase by almost 50% by 2026, to reach
721,000, reflecting average annual growth of 3.6%. The main trade area population is
estimated to grow by 164,500 persons by 2026, an increase of 43%, equivalent to an
average annual rate of 3.0%.
• The main trade area population is characterised by high income, a young average age,
and is predominantly Australian born but relatively ethnically diverse, as compared with
the Brisbane average. The overall level of affluence across the trade area is expected to
improve in the future as a new, wealthier population establishes in the major greenfield
growth areas and in the inner-city urban renewal areas.
• Total retail expenditure per capita across the main trade area is slightly above the
Brisbane average, but notably per capita expenditure on apparel is about 7 – 8% above
the Brisbane average.
• The total trade area retail expenditure market is expected to double in size by 2026, from
about $6.33 billion in 2015 to $12.8 billion, at an average annual growth rate of 6.6%.
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Market review and sales potentialExecutive summary
• The total apparel expenditure generated by the total trade area population in 2015 is
estimated at $587 million, including $479 million in the main trade area. The apparel
expenditure market is expected to grow by around 6.1% per annum, to reach $1.13 billion
by 201, including $898 million in the main trade area.
Competition
• DFO Jindalee is focused almost entirely on apparel retailing, therefore, the major
competition to the centre comprises other relevant outlet centres and major traditional
shopping centres with significant apparel offerings.
• There are no other major factory outlet centres located within south-western Brisbane,
with the only other significant outlet centre in Brisbane being DFO Brisbane Airport,
located approximately 25 km north-east of DFO Jindalee. There is only one other outlet
centre of any significance in South East Queensland, i.e. Harbour Town on the Gold Coast.
• The closest and most relevant regional centres to DFO Jindalee include Indooroopilly SC
to the north and Mt Ommaney SC to the south. Both of these centres have undergone
major redevelopments over the past 5 years, with Mount Ommaney Centre expanded in
2010 and Indooroopilly more recently, in 2014. In this context, we do not see either
centre under-going a major expansion in the foreseeable future.
• Orion Springfield, in the secondary south sector is currently undergoing a major
redevelopment, which will see the addition of a Target dds, as well as mini-major and
specialty floorspace and a new cinema complex. We expect the majority of impacts from
this expansion will be absorbed by traditional sub-regional shopping centres like
Mount Ommaney SC, Forest Lake and Redbank Plaza.
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Market review and sales potentialExecutive summary
Market potential
• The available apparel expenditure accessible to DFO Jindalee is expected to grow very
strongly in the future, in aggregate volume terms, driven by the massive future
population growth in the region. We consider that there is further upside to the recent
sales growth achieved by DFO Jindalee, particularly as its reputation improves and new
retailers are introduced to the centre.
• In our estimations DFO Jindalee currently captures about an 11.5% market share of the
available apparel expenditure generated by the primary sector population; an estimated
7.7% market share of apparel expenditure of the main trade area; and an estimated
market apparel expenditure market share of 6.6% from the total trade area.
• Having regard to estimated growth in the apparel expenditure market across the trade
area, and assuming that the centre maintains its market shares, we estimate that the
centre could achieve sales in the order of $60 million (ex GST) by 2020.
• We consider there is a good opportunity for DFO Jindalee to achieve total retail sales
much higher than the figures detailed above, through an improved tenancy mix,
increased levels of occupancy of existing floorspace and assuming that the additional
2,500 – 3,000 sq.m of proposed space is developed and tenanted with retail tenants.
• Assuming the quality of the tenancy mix can continue to be improved, and with a
potential expansion of the retail offering, we consider that the centre can achieve an
increase in market share, with a sales potential of around 20 – 25% higher than the ‘base
case’, i.e. in the order of $73 – 74 million by 2020.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialIntroduction
This report provides an assessment of the market served by DFO Jindalee and a high level
analysis of the sales and expansion potential for the centre.
The report has been prepared in accordance with instructions from Riva Ridge Pty Ltd, and is
structured as follows:
• Section 1 reviews the history and evolution of outlet centres in Australia, includes an
overview of key success criteria for outlet centres in Australia, and then details the
methodology that we have applied to assess the future potential of DFO Jindalee, based
on these factors.
• Section 2 reviews the local and regional context of the subject site, as well as providing a
detailed review of the composition and performance of the centre.
• Section 3 examines the trade area served by DFO Jindalee, assessing the current and
projected population levels in the trade area; the socio-demographic profile of the trade
area population; and the current and future spending levels of the trade area population,
with a particular focus on apparel expenditure.
• Section 4 reviews surrounding competitive environment of relevance to DFO Jindalee,
including existing and proposed retail facilities of relevance.
• Section 5 builds upon the earlier sections to provide a high level assessment of the sales
and market share potential for the centre in the future.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 1: Outlet centres: Key success factors
This section of the report reviews the history and evolution of outlet centres in Australia,
includes an overview of key success criteria for outlet centres in Australia, and then details
the methodology that we have applied to assess the future potential of DFO Jindalee, based
on these factors.
1.1 History of outlet centre retail
The initial rationale for the development of outlet centres, and their primary reason for
being, was to offer relatively low cost space for retailers to dispose of highly discounted
stock which was no longer able/desired to be sold through their traditional (full price) retail
outlets.
Because the stock is so highly discounted, and the gross profit margin on such stock is
relatively low, the sustainability of the concept depends on retail outlets being able to pay an
occupancy cost ratio (i.e. rental as a percentage of sales) which is well below the ratios that
are paid in either sub-regional or regional centres – typically between half and two-thirds of
such levels.
Historically, outlet centres were typically big box tenancies located outside major cities that
targeted price-sensitive shoppers. This model has evolved significantly in Europe and the US
over more recent years to meet customer demand for higher quality premium outlet
centres.
As a consequence, more recent models of outlet centres feature much higher standards of
design, with genuine designer/premium brands extensively represented in the mix, and a
focus on dining/recreation, in order to create a destination that is visited for its own sake as
much as it is visited for the shopping bargains which it offers.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 1: Outlet centres: Key success factors
1.2 Australian outlet centre experience
The first outlet centre to open in Australia was DFO Moorabbin in 1997, located next to
Moorabbin Airport approximately 20 km from the Melbourne CBD. The centre is a typical
big box style outlet centre and has been expanded over the years to include a more
substantial food court and additional tenancies.
At present in Australia there are some 20 outlet centres of significance, and their sales and
rental performance levels vary enormously. DFO Homebush in Sydney sits very clearly at the
top, being by far the most successful outlet centre. Harbour Town Gold Coast is also very
successful, although it is a ‘hybrid’ centre, containing some traditional retail elements,
including a large supermarket and associated convenience shopping, as well as outlet
retailing.
The Australian outlet centre offer, in the main, is relatively ‘downmarket’ (i.e. there is no
‘premium outlet’ concept in Australia yet). The key attributes of most of the current outlet
centre offers in Australia include:
• Mainly mid-market to lower end fashion: The offer is typically focussed towards mid-
market or lower end fashion with a very limited amount of upmarket designer brands,
and in many centres, no upmarket brand representation at all. In terms of retailers
represented, the offer is also often a replication of what is provided in fashion shopping
at typical shopping centres, but with the emphasis on discounted merchandise.
• Big Box: Factory outlet centres are built as low cost big box ‘warehouses’, in large
enclosed buildings with no design features and minimal finishes to shop fronts.
• Minimal dining: Most centres include a limited provision of basic ‘foodcourt’ eating
options, with few or no restaurants.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 1: Outlet centres: Key success factors
DFO Homebush in western Sydney is by far the strongest performing outlet centre in
Australia, reporting sales of $273 million (inc. GST) for year 2014. Indeed, the performance of
this centre is also arguably constrained by the popularity of the centre, which means that it is
difficult to access at peak times on the weekends.
The centre is located 14 km west of Sydney CBD and was originally built partially as an outlet
centre and partly as a homemaker centre. It has recently undergone expansion to include a
number of genuinely premium designer stores – Armani Outlet, Ermenegildo Zegna, Escada,
Hugo Boss, Max Mara, Burberry, Calvin Klein, Brooks Brothers, Coach Factory and
Michael Kors. The redevelopment increased outlet floorspace to around 20,000 sq.m, and
also added an improved food catering offer at the centre.
Similar to DFO Homebush, DFO Jindalee is co-located with a bulky goods/homemaker retail
offer. In fact, the homemaker offer around DFO Jindalee is a much more significant offer
than the ground floor homemaker component at DFO Homebush.
Jindalee Home, located to the immediate south of the DFO Jindalee adds to the critical mass
of attraction of this precinct and includes major tenants like Nick Scali, Freedom Furniture,
Coles and Pet Barn.
1.3 Key success criteria
Over recent years, MacroPlan Dimasi has conducted numerous investigations of outlet
centres across Australia, having reviewed most of the existing centres in Australia, as well as
broad studies of the outlet centre industry in general.
On the basis of these studies, we have drawn the following conclusions, which can be
considered a summary of the key success criteria and benchmark performance levels for the
industry:
• The total outlet centre industry in Australia comprises about 20 centres, which generate a
combined turnover estimated at $1.5 billion, with an average trading level of $5,000 -
$6,000 per sq.m, and an average turnover volume per centre of $90 – $100 million. Sales
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Market review and sales potentialSection 1: Outlet centres: Key success factors
volumes per centre range from less than $40 million up to $270 million (at
DFO Homebush), with seven centres achieving sales over $100 million.
• The outlet centre industry in Australia is therefore still relatively small, and accounts for
only about 1% – 1.5% of total non-food retail sales in the country. In the USA, outlet malls
account for approximately twice the market share of non-food retail sales which the
sector achieves in Australia (i.e. 2.5 - 3.0%).
• The key lesson, in our view, which can be learnt from the experience to date of outlet
centre development in Australia, is that an outlet centre can only expect to succeed if it
has good access to a very large main trade area population. Outlet centres draw business
thinly across broad regions, i.e. they attract a low market share of available expenditure
and, therefore, require an extensive area from which to draw such a market share in
order to generate a large enough sales volume to sustain the necessary critical mass of
stores.
Two basic factors contribute to the low market shares of total available expenditure
typically achieved by outlet centres, namely:
- First, apart from a limited provision of food catering stores, outlet centres are almost
entirely focused on non-food retail expenditure, which accounts for only about half of
total retail expenditure.
- Second, within the total non-food categories, outlet centres operate almost
exclusively in the apparel segments, which typically generate 80-90% of total centre
sales. Apparel expenditure, defined to include clothing and footwear (including
sporting apparel), fashion accessories and jewellery, generally accounts for 25%-30%
of total non-food retail expenditure, or 10%-15% of all retail expenditure. Therefore,
outlet centres are shooting for a rather small target. The chart below summarises this
point.
Competition for such expenditure comes from CBD’s, regional centres, sub-regional
centres and larger strips, including department stores, discount department stores,
apparel mini-majors and apparel specialty stores at all of these centres. Therefore,
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Market review and sales potentialSection 1: Outlet centres: Key success factors
outlet centres can only achieve low market shares of total available retail expenditure
across any region.
As a result, the most important requirement for a successful centre, in our view, is
good accessibility to an extensive regional population, translating to a large apparel
expenditure pool. There are other essential requirements, discussed further below,
but this first one is the most important.
Our analysis of trade areas served by Australia’s outlet centres indicates that for a
truly successful outlet centre a main trade area population of 300,000 is required, and
that a greater level, say 400,000 plus, is highly desirable.
Chart 1.1
Total Australian Retail Turnover, 2014 ($ billion)
Department stores²
$7.2b
2% Other retailing
$38.8b
14%
Apparel¹
$32.1b Food, liquor and groceries
12% $113.4b
41%
Food catering
$38.7b
14%
Household goods
$46.3b
17%
¹Assumes that Apparel includes clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing, as well as 60% of department store retailling.
²Assumes that Department stores turnover excluding apparel is equivalent to 40% of trade
Source: ABS Retail Trade, Australia and MacroPlan Dimasi
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Market review and sales potentialSection 1: Outlet centres: Key success factors
Critical mass is the next requisite feature of successful outlet centres. DFO Homebush,
DFO Essendon, DFO Brisbane Airport, Harbour Town Perth and Harbour Town Gold Coast,
are the most successful outlet centres, and are also generally among the largest, each being
at least 17,000 sq.m in size.
Critical mass is necessary to ensure the centre can achieve a reasonable market share of the
available expenditure pool – because outlet centres draw thinly across large areas, it follows
that a ‘small’ outlet centre is highly likely to trade poorly. However while critical mass is
highly desirable in successful outlet centres, it is not of itself a factor which guarantees
success. There are a number of examples of large outlet centres which trade either
moderately or poorly.
Accessibility is the third key element required for a successful outlet centre. If such a centre
needs to draw business from an extensive region, then it must be reasonably accessible to
the residents of such a broad region.
What has also now emerged in regards to the outlet centres industry in Australia is that
branding is fundamental, both for the centre itself and, increasingly, for the retailers which
are represented. Outlet centres that are ill considered, or that have been put together by
small, inexperienced operators, have generally floundered. Examples of this include Brands
on Sale at Campbelltown and the Brand Smart Outlet Centre in the Parramatta CBD, which
closed more than 5 years ago.
As detailed in the remainder of this report, the DFO Jindalee site meets all of the criteria
required for a successful outlet centre, except that it is currently at the mid-lower end of the
spectrum in terms of total size.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 2: Centre location, composition and
performance
This section of the report reviews the local and regional context of the subject site, as well as
providing a detailed review of the composition and performance of the centre.
2.1 Location and context
The suburb of Jindalee is located approximately 12 km south-west of the Brisbane CBD, a
short distance south of the Brisbane River. The Centenary Highway is the main traffic route
through the region which connects the inner-western suburbs of Toowong and
Indooroopilly, with the Ipswich Motorway and continues south to the rapidly growing
Greater Springfield region and Ripley Valley. Map 2.1 shows the location of DFO Jindalee
within the context of the Brisbane metropolitan area.
DFO Jindalee is located at the intersection of Amazons Place and Sinnamon Road,
immediately occupying a prominent position fronting the Centenary Highway, while
Seventeen Mile Rocks Road provides direct access to the centre for residents to the south-
east around Oxley. The centre is, therefore, easily accessible from a broad surrounding
region in south-western Brisbane.
Map 2.2 illustrates the key features of the local area. The centre is collocated with Jindalee
Home, a hybrid retail asset which predominantly consists of homemaker/large format retail,
but also includes the Coles anchored neighbourhood shopping centre, previously called
Jindalee Village. Major national brand tenants include Barbeques Galore, Forty Winks,
Freedom, Nick Scali, Beacon Lighting and Snooze.
Together these retail centres form a key retail destination in the region, serving both local
and broader area residents. The retail offers of the centres generally tend to complement
one another, offering substantial cross-shopping opportunities for their respective
customers.
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Market review and sales potentialMap 2.1: DFO Jindalee Regional context
Map 2.2: DFO Jindalee Site location
Section 2: Centre location, composition and performance
2.2 Centre composition and trading performance
DFO Jindalee is laid out in a racetrack design. The centre has recently undergone an upgrade
which saw the replacement of the poorly performing food court with a strongly performing
Nike store. Adidas and Kathmandu have also replaced a number of smaller tenancies in the
northern part of the centre and an additional four leases have also been executed in the past
two months.
Furthermore, a development application has been submitted to Brisbane City Council for an
expansion of the centre of around 2,500 – 3,000 sq.m, which would entail the
reconfiguration of existing tenancies as well as 6 new tenancies in a new mall to the east of
the centre. We understand that a decision regarding this application is imminent.
Table 2.1 following summarises the current composition of DFO Jindalee, as well as its
trading and rental performance for the year ended July 2015. Key points to note are as
follows:
• DFO Jindalee contains 16,485 sq.m of gross lettable area (GLA), including 13,829 sq.m of
retail GLA, which places the centre at the small to medium end of the spectrum for
factory outlet centres in Australia.
• Total reported retail sales at the centre were $44.8 million (ex GST) for the year to June
2015, an increase of about 9.5% compared with 2013. (NB: This includes sales for tenants
that have now left the centre).
• These sales consisted of $12.1 million from the 7 mini-major tenants; $24.2 million in
apparel specialty sales; $5.7 million from the remaining specialty stores; and around
$2.7 million for tenants that previously traded at the centre (e.g. Supre).
• Specialty sales productivity levels averaged $3,216 per sq.m and mini-major tenants
averaged $3,838 per sq.m.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 2: Centre location, composition and performance
• Although, only consisting of a small amount of floorspace, sales productivity levels
achieved by food catering tenants were strongest, at $9,474 per sq.m.
• Annual gross rent paid by retailers currently at DFO Jindalee (i.e. excluding Supre) totals
$4.3 million, at an average rate of $338 per sq.m gross.
• The average gross rents for specialty retailers was $342 per sq.m, equivalent to an
average occupancy cost ratio of 10.6%.
• A further $583,000 in gross rental income is generated by the non-retail tenants,
primarily driven by the Goodlife Health Clubs gym.
Table 2.1
DFO Jindalee - Composition & performance*
GLA Sales** Gross rent Occ cost
Category (sq.m) ($'000) ($/sq.m) ($'000) ($/sq.m) ratio
Mini-majors*** 3,164 12,142 3,838 1,044 330 8.6%
Retail specialties
Food catering 249 2,359 9,474 254 1,021 10.8%
Apparel 7,634 24,240 3,175 2,439 320 10.1%
Household 914 1,435 1,570 240 262 16.7%
Leisure 266 960 3,608 96 362 10.0%
General 248 955 3,851 153 615 16.0%
Total retail spec. 9,311 29,948 3,216 3,182 342 10.6%
Accountant 237 85 359
Storage 47 4 79
Shop 39 (ex. Supre - now leased)*** 501
Vacant 569
Other sales recorded to July 2015***** n.a. 2,700 n.a.
Total centre - retail 13,829 44,791 n.a. 4,315 338 n.a.
Goodlife Health Clubs 2,656 583 220
Total centre 16,485 4,898 297
*For the year ended July 2015
** Exclusive of GST
***i.e. Tenants greater than 400 sq.m.
**** Leased post July 2015
***** Previous tenants that traded through part of year to July 2015. No GLA has been recorded against these sales.
Source: Australian Unity; MacroPlan Dimasi
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Market review and sales potentialSection 2: Centre location, composition and performance
2.3 Recent historical performance
The DFO Jindalee asset has previously been reviewed by MacroPlan Dimasi in May 2011 and
again in October 2013. Since 2011, the asset has improved considerably, with tenancy
improvements including the introduction of Nike, Adidas, and Kathmandu, which together
have strengthened enormously the northern end of the centre’s main mall.
Other tenancy mix improvements have occurred throughout the rest of the centre, and the
level of vacant space has been substantially reduced as a result, from more than 1,300 sq.m
in February 2011 to 569 sq.m as at July 2015.
One of the most promising signs for the future potential of the centre has been the
continued growth in annual sales over the period 2011 - 2015, in spite of major expansions
at Mount Ommaney SC in 2011/12, and Indooroopilly in 2014/15. Indeed sales increased by
25%, from $35.9 million to $44.8 million, between 2011 and 2015, partly due to an increase
in tenanted floorspace but also the result in improvements in sales per sq.m.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
This section of the report examines the trade area served by DFO Jindalee, assessing the
current and projected population levels in the trade area; the socio-demographic profile of
the trade area population; and the current and future spending levels of the trade area
population, with a particular focus on apparel expenditure.
3.1 Trade area definition
The extent of the trade area or catchment that is served by any shopping centre or retail
facility is shaped by the interplay of a number of critical factors. These factors include:
• The relative attraction of the centre, in comparison with alternative competitive retail
facilities. The factors that determine the strength and attraction of any particular centre
are primarily its scale and composition (in particular the major trader or traders that
anchor the centre); its layout and ambience; and carparking, including access and ease of
use.
• The proximity and attractiveness of competitive retail centres. The locations,
compositions, quality and scale of competitive retail facilities all serve to define the
extent of the trade area which a shopping centre is effectively able to serve.
• The available road network and public transport infrastructure, which determine the ease
(or difficulty) with which customers are able to access a shopping centre.
• Significant physical barriers which are difficult to negotiate, and can act as delineating
boundaries to the trade area served by an individual shopping centre.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
The trade area estimated to be served by DFO Jindalee has been defined taking into
consideration all of the above factors, and includes one primary sector and two secondary
sectors, illustrated on Map 3.1 and described as follows:
• The primary sector extends approximately 5 km north and 10 km east, south and west of
the centre. The sector is bounded by the Beenleigh/Gold Coast railway line to the east
and extends south to the Logan Motorway
• The secondary north sector extends west to Ipswich Road and includes the inner Brisbane
suburbs of Auchenflower, Toowong, Taringa, St Lucia, Indooroopilly, West End, South
Brisbane, Highgate Hill, Dutton Park, Fairfield and Yeronga.
• The secondary south sector contains the suburbs of Goodna, Redbank, Redbank Plains,
Camira, Collingwood Park as well as the developing suburbs around Springfield.
• The tertiary sector extends some 30 km west of Jindalee and encompasses Ipswich, as
well as the surrounding suburbs within a 10 km radius.
The combined primary and secondary sectors are referred to the main trade area throughout
this report, from which typical factory outlet centres draw 70 - 80% of their sales. The main
trade area and tertiary sector combined are referred to as the total trade area.
Map 3.2 highlights the key access routes trade area residents use to visit the centre, and also
provides 20 and 30 minute drive times around the centre.
The location of DFO Jindalee on the Centenary Highway ensures the centre is readily
accessible from a broad surrounding region of south-western Brisbane. Access from the
secondary north sector is provided via the Western Highway; while residents of the
secondary south sector enjoy good access to DFO Jindalee via the convergence of the
Centenary Highway, Logan and Ipswich Motorways. Access from the tertiary sector is also
relatively straightforward via Warrego Highway, Cunningham Highway and Brisbane Road.
It is also worth highlighting that the majority of the main trade area of DFO Jindalee is
located within a 20 minute drive time of the centre, while the entire total trade area is
located within a drive time of 30 minutes. Given the destinational nature of outlet shopping,
this is considered reasonable in terms of travel times to the centre.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialMap 3.1: DFO Jindalee Trade area and competition
Map 3.2: DFO Jindalee Drivetimes (20 and 30min)
Section 3: Trade area analysis
3.2 Trade area population
Table 3.1 details the current and projected population levels within the trade area. This
information has been collected from a range of sources, including the following:
• Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census of Population and Housing (2006 and 2011);
• ABS Dwelling Approvals Data (2010–14);
• ABS Estimated Residential Population Data (ERP) (2011-14);
• Queensland Department of Treasury Population Information and Forecasting Unit (PIFU);
and
• Other investigations of future residential development, undertaken by this office.
The total trade area population is estimated at 488,400 in 2015, including some
379,100 residents in the main trade area and close to 198,000 residents in the primary
sector. Over the most recent intercensal period (2006-2011), the total trade area population
increased at an average rate of 2.6% per annum, or around 12,000 residents per annum, and
the main trade area increased at an average rate of 2.8% per annum.
While this trade area population is at the lower end of the range typically served by
successful outlet centres in Australia, it is certainly, in our opinion, sufficient to sustain an
outlet centre such as DFO Jindalee which is easily accessible, particularly given the massive
growth expected to occur in the trade area over the next 10 – 15 years.
Massive future population growth is expected to occur in both of the secondary sectors, with
the secondary south including the ongoing growth in the Greater Springfield area and the
secondary north sector undergoing a massive transformation, with a number of very
significant high density residential developments currently under construction or proposed
around Toowong, Milton, West End and Woolloongabba.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
Table 3.1
DFO Jindalee trade area population, 2006-2026*
Estimated population Forecast population
Trade area sector 2006 2011 2015 2018 2021 2026
Primary 168,590 183,750 197,950 205,450 213,700 227,450
Secondary sectors
• North 76,040 85,130 93,130 103,630 117,130 142,130
• South 52,040 71,240 88,040 112,040 139,040 174,040
Total secondary 128,080 156,370 181,170 215,670 256,170 316,170
Main trade area 296,670 340,120 379,120 421,120 469,870 543,620
Tertiary sector 89,750 100,310 109,310 123,410 139,910 177,410
Total trade area 386,420 440,430 488,430 544,530 609,780 721,030
Average annual growth (no.)
Trade area sector 2006-11 2011-15 2015-18 2018-21 2021-26
Primary 3,032 3,550 2,500 2,750 2,750
Secondary sectors
• North 1,818 2,000 3,500 4,500 5,000
• South 3,840 4,200 8,000 9,000 7,000
Total secondary 5,658 6,200 11,500 13,500 12,000
Main trade area 8,690 9,750 14,000 16,250 14,750
Tertiary sector 2,112 2,250 4,500 5,500 7,500
Total trade area 10,802 12,000 18,500 21,750 22,250
Average annual growth (%)
Trade area sector 2006-11 2011-15 2015-18 2018-21 2021-26
Primary 1.7% 1.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%
Secondary sectors
• North 2.3% 2.3% 3.6% 4.2% 3.9%
• South 6.5% 5.4% 8.4% 7.5% 4.6%
Total secondary 4.1% 3.7% 6.0% 5.9% 4.3%
Main trade area 2.8% 2.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.0%
Tertiary sector 2.2% 2.2% 4.1% 4.3% 4.9%
Total trade area 2.7% 2.6% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4%
*As at June
Source: ABS Census 2011; QLD Office of Economic and Statistical Research; MacroPlan Dimasi
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
The major residential developments in the trade area are summarised as follows and major
growth areas are outlined on Map 3.3:
• Greater Springfield (secondary south): is planned to accommodate in excess of
100,000 persons in the future, once fully developed. Major estates include:
Springfield Lakes by Lend Lease (up to 10,000 dwellings); Spring Mountain
(4,000 dwellings); Springview Estate (2,000 – 2,500 dwellings); Brentwood and
Brentwood Forest (1,600 dwellings); and Mountview Estate by Devine (1,400 dwellings).
• Toowong/Milton (secondary north): which is undergoing significant gentrification, with
significant increases in residential densities, particularly between the corridor from
Toowong Village to the northern parts of Milton, between Coronation Drive and
Milton Road.
• West End/Woolloongabba/Yeerongpilly (secondary north): are also undergoing
significant urban renewal with more than 10,000 potential dwellings identified in the
pipeline in these areas. Major projects include: Yeerongpilly Green (in excess of
1,100 dwellings); Kurilpa Point (more than 11,000 residents).
• Ripley Valley (tertiary sector): is the major greenfield release area west of Greater
Springfield which is expected to accommodate in excess of 120,000 persons and has
already begun to accommodate new residential development. Major estates include:
Amex Corporation’s Providence estate (up to 7,000 homes); Stockland’s Sovereign
Pocket/Grampian Hills (more than 2,000 dwellings).
Having regard to the above, the total trade area population is estimated to increase by
almost 50% by 2026, to reach 721,000, reflecting average annual growth of 3.6%. The main
trade area population is estimated to grow by 164,500 persons by 2026, an increase of 43%,
and equivalent to an average annual rate of 3.0%.
In summary, the analysis of future population growth highlights the excellent future
potential for DFO Jindalee.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialMap 3.3: DFO Jindalee Major growth areas
Section 3: Trade area analysis
3.3 Socio-demographic profile
Table 3.2 illustrates the socio-demographic profile of the total trade area population,
compared with benchmarks for metropolitan Brisbane and Australia, based on data sourced
from the 2011 ABS Census of Population and Housing, with the key highlights as follows:
• Overall, the population available to DFO Jindalee is relatively affluent compared with the
metropolitan Brisbane average. The population of the primary (6.7%) and secondary
north sectors (26.1%), in particular, enjoy income levels which are well above average.
While incomes in the secondary south sector, and indeed, the tertiary sector, are below
average, these areas are undergoing rapid change and much of the new population
establishing in new Greenfield residential areas is much more affluent than the existing
residential population in areas like Collingwood Park, Redbank and Ipswich etc.
• The age profile of the population of each of the trade area sectors varies, with an age
distribution broadly comparable with overall Brisbane averages in the primary sector; a
population heavily skewed to 20–29 year olds (reflecting the high numbers of young
professional couples and singles) in the secondary north sector; and a population very
much skewed towards young families in the growing secondary south sector (i.e. low
proportion of persons aged over 50 and a very high proportion of children).
• The proportion of home ownership, broadly, across the total trade area population
(61.4%) is slightly below the Brisbane average (65.5%). However there is a higher than
average level of home ownership in the primary sector and below average home
ownership levels within the secondary sectors, particularly the secondary north sector
(due to the high proportion of young, working professionals).
• The proportion of Australian born residents in the main trade area residents (66.2%), is
significantly lower than the Brisbane average of 73.9%. This is driven by reflects the high
proportion of Asian born residents in the primary sector (11.6%) and secondary north
sector (16.4%), compared with the Brisbane average and higher than average share of
New Zealanders/Pacific Islanders in the secondary south sector (16%).
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
• The proportion of traditional family households (i.e. households with parents and
dependent children) across the main trade area and total trade area, in aggregate, is
comparable with the Brisbane average, however there are major variations within each
of the main trade area sectors. The primary and secondary south sectors contain very
high proportions of traditional families; the secondary north sector consists of a high
proportion of lone person and couple households, which is typical of an inner-city
population.
The main trade area population is characterised by high income, a young average age, and is
predominantly Australian born but relatively ethnically diverse, as compared with the
Brisbane average.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
Table 3.2
DFO Jindalee main trade area - socio-demographic profile, 2011
Primary Secondary sectors Main Tertiary Total Bris Metro Aust.
Census item sector North South TA sector TA avg. avg.
Per capita income $37,805 $44,662 $28,984 $37,673 $29,309 $35,768 $35,420 $34,467
Var. from Bris Metro benchmark 6.7% 26.1% -18.2% 6.4% -17.3% 1.0%
Avg. household income $107,379 $103,081 $86,378 $102,115 $77,717 $96,463 $95,634 $88,205
Var. from Bris Metro benchmark 12.3% 7.8% -9.7% 6.8% -18.7% 0.9%
Avg. household size 2.8 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6
Age distribution (% of population)
Aged 0-14 20.9% 11.4% 26.6% 19.7% 22.3% 20.3% 20.1% 19.3%
Aged 15-19 7.3% 8.1% 7.5% 7.6% 7.5% 7.5% 6.9% 6.5%
Aged 20-29 13.2% 30.9% 16.4% 18.3% 13.9% 17.3% 15.2% 13.8%
Aged 30-39 13.9% 15.9% 16.5% 15.0% 13.2% 14.6% 14.6% 13.8%
Aged 40-49 15.1% 11.1% 13.7% 13.8% 14.1% 13.9% 14.2% 14.2%
Aged 50-59 12.4% 9.6% 9.9% 11.2% 11.9% 11.3% 12.0% 12.8%
Aged 60+ 17.1% 13.0% 9.5% 14.5% 17.2% 15.1% 16.9% 19.6%
Average age 36.4 34.5 30.7 34.7 35.7 34.9 36.2 37.9
Housing status (% of households)
Owner (total) 69.9% 45.2% 58.8% 61.4% 64.5% 62.1% 65.5% 68.7%
• Owner (outright) 30.0% 23.2% 16.3% 25.4% 27.5% 25.9% 27.9% 32.9%
• Owner (with mortgage) 39.9% 22.1% 42.5% 36.0% 37.0% 36.2% 37.6% 35.8%
Renter 29.2% 54.1% 40.9% 37.9% 35.0% 37.2% 33.7% 30.4%
Other 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9%
Birthplace (% of population)
Australian born 66.2% 63.4% 69.6% 66.2% 86.8% 70.9% 73.9% 74.0%
Overseas born 33.8% 36.6% 30.4% 33.8% 13.2% 29.1% 26.1% 26.0%
• Asia 11.6% 16.4% 5.8% 11.6% 2.1% 9.4% 7.1% 8.6%
• Europe 9.7% 9.7% 8.5% 9.4% 5.9% 8.6% 8.9% 10.5%
• Other 12.5% 10.5% 16.0% 12.7% 5.2% 11.0% 10.1% 7.0%
Family type (% of households)
Couple with dep't children 52.1% 37.4% 52.7% 47.9% 45.3% 47.3% 46.7% 45.3%
Couple with non-dep't child. 7.2% 4.1% 6.5% 6.2% 7.2% 6.4% 7.2% 7.7%
Couple without children 19.9% 28.7% 17.6% 22.1% 20.9% 21.8% 22.7% 23.0%
One parent with dep't child. 9.3% 6.3% 13.5% 9.2% 12.6% 10.0% 9.7% 9.2%
One parent w non-dep't child. 3.3% 2.7% 3.2% 3.1% 3.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5%
Other family 1.1% 4.1% 1.0% 2.0% 1.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1%
Lone person 7.1% 16.7% 5.7% 9.6% 9.1% 9.5% 9.0% 10.2%
Source: ABS Census of Population & Housing, 2011; MacroPlan Dimasi
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
3.4 Retail expenditure
MacroPlan Dimasi estimates retail expenditure capacity generated by the main trade area
residents based on information sourced from Market Data Systems (MDS), which utilises a
detailed micro simulation model of household expenditure behaviour for all residents of
Australia. The model takes into account information from a wide variety of sources including
the regular ABS Household Expenditure Surveys, national accounts data, Census data and
other information. We consider MarketInfo data to be an accurate measure of available
retail expenditure and it is widely relied on in the retail industry.
Total retail expenditure is detailed in a number of categories, as follows:
• Take-home food and groceries – goods typically sold in supermarkets and specialty fresh
food stores.
• Packaged liquor – packaged beer, wine and spirits such as those purchased at bottle-
shops and liquor outlets.
• Food catering – cafes, take-away outlets and restaurants, including liquor consumed on
such premises.
• Apparel – clothing, footwear, fashion and accessories.
• Household Goods – giftware, electrical, computers, furniture, homewares, and hardware
goods.
• Leisure – sporting goods, music, DVDs, games, books, newsagents and film
processing/photography.
• General Retail – pharmaceutical goods, cosmetics, toys, florists, mobile phones.
• Retail Services – retail services such as key cutting, shoe repairs, hair and beauty.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
Chart 3.1 shows the retail expenditure capacity per person for residents of the identified
main trade area for the year 2014/15, and compares these estimates with the average for
metropolitan Brisbane and Australia. Spending estimates are presented inclusive of GST. The
following points are noted:
• Total retail expenditure per capita is estimated to be about 1 – 2% above the Brisbane
average.
• Per capita expenditure on discretionary/non-food retail categories is about 3 – 4% above
average.
• Per capita expenditure on apparel is about 7 – 8% the Brisbane average.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
Table 3.3 presents estimates of total retail spending generated by the main trade area
population, by trade area sector, over the period from 2015 to 2026. Spending forecasts are
presented inclusive of GST and in inflated dollars, with inflation assumed to average 2.0% per
annum.
The total trade area retail expenditure market is expected to double in size in the next 10 –
11 years, from about $6.33 billion in 2015 to $12.8 billion by 2026, at an average annual
growth rate of 6.6%.The average annual growth rate of 6.6% comprises three components,
as follows:
• Residential population growth, which is expected to average 3.6% per annum;
• Real growth in per capita retail expenditure, which is expected to average 0.9% per
annum over the forecast period; and
• Retail inflation, which is assumed to average 2.0% per annum.
The total retail expenditure capacity of the main trade area population is expected to grow
at 6.4% per annum, from $5.0 billion at 2015 to $9.9 billion by 2026.
Table 3.4 presents projections of spending for the total trade area by retail category, and
Table 3.5 presents the estimated spending directed to the apparel category, which is the key
category of relevance for DFO Jindalee, disaggregated by trade area sector.
Apparel expenditure generated by the total trade area population in 2015 is estimated at
$587 million, including $479 million in the main trade area, and $252 in the primary sector.
Over the forecast period, apparel expenditure by the total trade area population is projected
to increase by 6.1% per annum, to reach $1.13 billion, including $898 million in the main
trade area and $386 million in the primary sector.
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
Table 3.3
DFO Jindalee total trade area - retail expenditure ($M), 2015-2026*
Year ending Primary Secondary sectors Main Tertiary Total
June sector North South TA sector TA
2015 2,636.5 1,370.0 1,001.6 5,008.1 1,325.0 6,333.1
2016 2,755.7 1,451.7 1,101.9 5,309.3 1,406.6 6,715.8
2017 2,871.4 1,548.4 1,229.0 5,648.8 1,507.4 7,156.1
2018 2,992.0 1,651.6 1,370.7 6,014.3 1,615.4 7,629.7
2019 3,120.3 1,767.1 1,523.2 6,410.6 1,733.3 8,143.9
2020 3,257.0 1,896.6 1,686.4 6,840.0 1,862.0 8,701.9
2021 3,401.3 2,036.6 1,868.0 7,306.0 2,001.2 9,307.2
2022 3,552.7 2,185.8 2,042.4 7,780.9 2,158.1 9,939.0
2023 3,709.7 2,343.4 2,203.1 8,256.1 2,333.8 10,590.0
2024 3,873.6 2,512.4 2,376.4 8,762.3 2,523.9 11,286.3
2025 4,044.8 2,693.5 2,563.4 9,301.7 2,729.5 12,031.3
2026 4,223.5 2,887.8 2,765.2 9,876.6 2,951.9 12,828.5
Average annual growth ($M)
2015-2026 144.3 138.0 160.3 442.6 147.9 590.5
Average annual growth (%)
2015-2026 4.4% 7.0% 9.7% 6.4% 7.6% 6.6%
*Inflated dollars & including GST
Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
Table 3.4
DFO Jindalee total trade area - retail expenditure by product group ($M), 2015-2026*
Year ending FLG Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail Total
June catering goods retail services retail
2015 2,769 763 587 1,200 331 497 187 6,333
2016 2,941 813 619 1,270 349 525 198 6,716
2017 3,139 872 656 1,350 370 558 211 7,156
2018 3,353 934 696 1,435 393 592 225 7,630
2019 3,585 1,003 740 1,529 418 630 240 8,144
2020 3,837 1,078 786 1,630 445 670 257 8,702
2021 4,110 1,159 837 1,739 474 714 275 9,307
2022 4,395 1,245 889 1,853 504 759 293 9,939
2023 4,690 1,334 943 1,970 534 806 313 10,590
2024 5,005 1,430 1,001 2,094 567 855 334 11,286
2025 5,342 1,534 1,061 2,228 602 908 356 12,031
2026 5,704 1,645 1,126 2,370 640 964 379 12,828
Average annual growth ($M)
2015-2026 267 80 49 106 28 42 17 590
Average annual growth (%)
2015-2026 6.8% 7.2% 6.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6%
*Inflated dollars & including GST
Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi
Retail expenditure category definitions:
• FLG: take-home food and groceries, as well as packaged liquor.
• Food catering: expenditure at cafes, take-away food outlets and restaurants.
• Apparel: clothing, footwear, fashion accessories and jewellery.
• Household goods: giftware, electrical, computers, furniture, homewares and hardware goods.
• Leisure: sporting goods, music, DVDs, computer games, books, newspapers & magazines, stationery and
photography equipment.
• General retail: pharmaceutical goods, cosmetics, toys, florists, mobile phones and pets.
• Retail services: hair & beauty, optical goods, dry cleaning, key cutting and shoe repairs.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialSection 3: Trade area analysis
Table 3.5
DFO Jindalee total trade area - apparel expenditure ($M), 2015-2026*
Year ending Primary Secondary sectors Main Tertiary Total
June sector North South TA sector TA
2015 252.0 142.0 85.5 479.5 107.0 586.5
2016 262.3 149.8 93.7 505.9 113.2 619.1
2017 272.3 159.2 104.1 535.6 120.8 656.3
2018 282.6 169.1 115.7 567.3 128.9 696.3
2019 293.5 180.2 128.0 601.7 137.8 739.5
2020 305.2 192.6 141.2 638.9 147.4 786.3
2021 317.5 205.9 155.7 679.1 157.8 836.9
2022 330.3 220.1 169.6 720.0 169.5 889.5
2023 343.5 235.0 182.2 760.7 182.6 943.3
2024 357.2 250.9 195.7 803.9 196.7 1,000.5
2025 371.5 267.9 210.3 849.7 211.8 1,061.5
2026 386.4 286.0 225.9 898.3 228.1 1,126.5
Average annual growth ($M)
2015-2026 12 13 13 38 11 49
Average annual growth (%)
2015-2026 4.0% 6.6% 9.2% 5.9% 7.1% 6.1%
*Inflated dollars & including GST
Source: MarketInfo; MacroPlan Dimasi
DFO Jindalee
30
Market review and sales potentialSection 4: Competitive framework
This section of the report reviews surrounding competitive environment of relevance to
DFO Jindalee, including existing and proposed retail facilities of relevance.
DFO Jindalee is focused almost entirely on apparel retailing, therefore, the major
competition to the centre comprises the following:
• Other relevant outlet centres; and
• Major traditional shopping centres with significant apparel offerings.
Table 4.1 details the retail facilities which are considered to be the main competitors to
DFO Jindalee, with Map 4.1 and 3.1 illustrating their locations.
As previously mentioned, the broader precinct within which DFO Jindalee is located, contains
around 40,000 sq.m of retail floorspace, which is a considerable critical mass.
4.1 Outlet retail centres
There are no other major factory outlet centres located within south-western Brisbane, with
the only other significant outlet centre in Brisbane being DFO Brisbane Airport, located
approximately 25 km north-east of DFO Jindalee.
The centre includes approximately 125 retailers across 20,900 sq.m of floorspace and
generally serves the population of northern Brisbane/Sunshine Coast and south-east
Brisbane/Logan. This centre is currently undergoing an expansion, which will see a further
30 stores added to the centre and more than 1,000 additional car-spaces.
In addition, to the two DFO centres, Jindalee and Brisbane Airport, there is only one other
outlet centre of any significance in South East Queensland, i.e. Harbour Town on the
Gold Coast.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialSection 4: Competitive framework
Table 4.1
DFO Jindalee - schedule of competing retail facilities
Retail Dist. by road from
Centre GLA Major traders DFO Jindalee
(sq.m) (km)
Factory outlet centres
DFO Brisbane 25.0
• Existing 27,300 n.a.
• Under construction c. 5,000 n.a.
Regional centres
Mt Ommaney Centre 48,700 Kmart, Target, Big W, Woolworths, 3.0
Coles, Aldi
Indooroopilly SC 115,000 Myer, David Jones, Target, Kmart, 5.3
Woolworths, Coles
Sub-regional centres
Toowong Village 35,000 David Jones, Kmart, Coles 7.0
Forest Lake Village SC 20,200 Target, Woolworths, Coles, Aldi 14.0
Redbank Plaza 34,500 Kmart, Target, Coles 15.0
Redbank Plains 18.0
• Redbank Plains SC (existing) 5,600 Woolworths
• Redbank Plains SC (p) 18,000 Target (p), Coles (p)
Orion Springfield Central 19.0
• Existing 37,200 Big W, Woolworths, Aldi
• Under construction 13,800 Target (u/c), Coles (u/c)
Booval Fair 19,900 Big W, Woolworths 24.0
Riverlink (Ipswich) 51,400 Target, Kmart, Coles, Woolworths, Aldi 27.0
Source: Property Council of Australia; MacroPlan Dimasi
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Market review and sales potentialSection 4: Competitive framework
4.2 Traditional retail shopping centres
The closest and most relevant regional centres to DFO Jindalee include Indooroopilly SC to
the north and Mt Ommaney SC to the south. Both of these centres have undergone major
redevelopments over the past 5 years, with Mt Ommaney Centre expanded in 2010 and
Indooroopilly more recently, in 2014. In this context, we do not see either centre under-
going a major expansion in the foreseeable future.
Indooroopilly SC is a double department store anchored regional shopping centre situated
approximately 5.3 km north-east of DFO Jindalee. A major 30,000 sq.m upgrade of this
centre was completed in 2014, which means the centre now contains both department store
operators, Kmart and Target discount department stores (dds), Coles and Woolworths
supermarkets, as well as additional specialty food and fashion retailing, including H&M.
Mt Ommaney Centre is situated around 3 km south of DFO Jindalee and is anchored by three
discount department stores (Kmart, Target and Big W) and three supermarkets, as well as
including around 130 specialty stores. The centre contains a decent fashion offer of around
50 – 60 tenants.
Other competition in the trade area for apparel spending comes from Orion Springfield
Central – which is currently undergoing a major expansion, Redbank Plaza and Forest Lake
Village SC to the south, Riverlink SC in Ipswich, and from Toowong Village to the north –
which has recently undergone a major refurbishment.
Orion Springfield, in the secondary south sector is currently undergoing a major
redevelopment, which will see the addition of a Target dds, as well as mini-major and
specialty floorspace and a new cinema complex. We expect the majority of impacts from this
expansion will be absorbed by traditional sub-regional shopping centres like
Mount Ommaney SC, Forest Lake and Redbank Plaza.
DFO Jindalee
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Market review and sales potentialSection 4: Competitive framework
The Redbank Plains SC (currently a small Woolworths anchored) has approval for a major
expansion and redevelopment, including a new retail building to the west of the existing
centre including a Target dds, a Coles supermarket, and specialty space, totalling around
18,000 sq.m of retail GLA, as well as the refurbishment and integration of the existing
Woolworths anchored centre. Upon completion the centre will contain around 23,000 –
24,000 sq.m of retail GLA.
Riverlink Shopping Centre in Ipswich is the largest retail centre within the tertiary sector. The
urban regeneration of the Ipswich CBD (i.e. Ipswich City Heart) is mooted to include a major
shopping centre, though there are currently no development plans for the retail component
of the project.
DFO Jindalee
34
Market review and sales potentialSection 5: DFO Jindalee future outlook
This section of the report builds upon the earlier sections to provide a high level assessment
of the sales and market share potential for the centre in the future.
5.1 Recent retail trends
As mentioned earlier, the sales performance of DFO Jindalee improved considerably
between 2011 and 2015, increasing in sales by around 25%. This primarily reflects an
improved tenancy mix at the centre and particularly the introduction of a number of new
mini-majors.
While aggregate national sales growth in the apparel category has not grown as quickly as
other retail categories in recent times, much of this low growth has been driven by strong
price discounting and price deflation, rather than a reduction in volumes of stock being
purchased.
The arrival of new international mini-major entrants has continued to place pressure on local
apparel retailers, however, discount apparel outlet retail in our view, should remain
insulated to some extent, as these centres perform a different role in the retail hierarchy,
providing an avenue for traditional, well-branded retailers to sell heavily discounted stock.
Furthermore, the available apparel expenditure accessible to DFO Jindalee is expected to
grow very strongly in the future, in aggregate volume terms, driven by the massive future
population growth in the region.
We consider that there is further upside to the recent sales growth achieved by DFO
Jindalee, particularly as its reputation improves and new retailers are introduced to the
centre. This potential increase in sales performance is discussed further and quantified in the
next sub-section.
DFO Jindalee
35
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