COVID-19 economic data tracker - Truist
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COVID-19 economic data tracker
Michael Skordeles, AIF®
Week 3 – January 21, 2021
Senior U.S. Macro Strategist
Trend watch and what’s new this week have improve to such an extent that several countries, including
Ireland, France, and England, have dramatically scaled back pandemic
As we mentioned here last week, the omicron wave in the U.S. restrictions and rules (though most were significantly stricter than U.S.
appears to have peaked (slide 7). This is reinforced by the regional rules). These moves should incrementally help boost international
U.S. view (slide 7) and the state-level view, which shows cases in growth in coming months.
states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Ohio have peaked.
Furthermore, we’re encouraged that activity-based U.S data appears
Moreover, hospitalizations have clearly peaked based on the rate of to be picking up some following holiday and year-end seasonality,
hospitalizations (slide 8). Still, the percentage of beds occupied by though omicron cases peaking may be contributing to the
COVID-19 patients is currently at 21%, down a couple ticks in the past improvement.
week (slide 9). It’s encouraging but being above 20% is problematic as
it stresses hospital staffs and resources. Also, it is winter, when heavy snowfall and frigid temperatures can
depress activities across much of the northern states and periodically
While vaccinations don’t entirely avoid omicron infections, several ambush some southern states. Thus, we should be prepared for some
studies show they limit the chance of developing severe symptoms. bumps along the way through the first quarter.
We updated the massive West Coast port traffic tsunami (slide 11). It
shows that port logjam is clearing dramatically.
Lastly, we also revisited temporary staffing (slide 12). Staffing levels
have rebounded after the typical lull around the holidays.
Bottom line
We’re encouraged by the most recent virus trends, which suggest the
omicron wave is peaking in the U.S. Similarly, virus trends in Europe
Securities and insurance products and services –
Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose valueU.S. COVID-19 economic data tracker matrix
Relative
Indicator What we’re watching
trend
Activity data appears to be picking up some following holiday and year-end seasonality, though
U.S. state reopenings omicron cases peaking may be contributing to the improvement. Overall activity levels are consistent
with recent trends and seasonal norms.
TSA air passenger Weekly passengers rose 1.9% WoW, snapping a 3-week decline, to 10.2 million, which was -36.7% below the
throughput
2019 weekly average of 16.1M. Passenger counts are -22% under the same week in January 2019.
Reservations up to -24.5% from -29.2% in the prior week. Top positive states were led by Missouri (+6%) and
OpenTable restaurant
bookings
Nevada (+5%); bottom was NY (-58%) and Maryland (-52%). Top cities were Miami (+18%) and Naples
(+10%); bottom were Philly (-70%), NYC (-68%), and San Fran (-67%).
Frigid temps are holding down activities in some areas. 7-day averages relative to 2020: Parks -15%, Transit
Google mobility D -33%, Grocery/Pharmacy -7%, Residential +9%, Retail/Restaurant/Recreation -19%, Workplaces -27%.
Occupancy rose to 48.8% from 45.4%. The average daily rate also rose, to $122.12, down 1.6% from the same
Hotel occupancy week in Jan. 2019, while revenue per available room rose to $59.57, down 17.6% from Jan. 2019.
Apartment rent Payments through December 6 slipped to 77.1% from 78.2% in November. Full month rents for December ’21
slipped to 92.0% from 93.1% in November, but were down from 93.8% in December ’19.
payments
Rail carloads jumped 24.8% in the first two week of ’22. Overall 2021 carloads fell 2.4% due to 12.1% decline in
Freight auto freight. Long Beach, the #2 U.S. port, processed 15.7% more containers YoY in ’21.
Jumped to 96.8 during the first full week of January, which is in-line with the 96.9 average during 2021. We
Staffing index expect it rebound further in the next few weeks. The low for this cycle was 59.6 set in April 2020.
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Our World in Data, Transportation Security Administration, OpenTable,
Trend relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, STR/CoStar, National Multifamily Housing Council Rent
Positive qNegative DNeutral / Mixed Payment Tracker, American Staffing Association. Week-over-weak and year-over-year change are abbreviated
as WoW and YoY, respectively.U.S. cases, hospitalizations rolling over, but death rate ticking higher (as
expected due to the lag)
New confirmed cases 7-day moving average Tests performed 7-day moving average
3,500,000
1,000,000
749,430 3,000,000 2,883,399
800,000 2,500,000
2,000,000
600,000 1,500,000
1,000,000
400,000 500,000
0
200,000
0
Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Total hospitalized currently U.S. COVID-19 deaths
200,000 160,714 4,000 Total deaths (r-axis) 1,000,000
Change in deaths 7-DMA (l-axis)
3,000 800,000
150,000
1,969 600,000
100,000 2,000
400,000
50,000 1,000 200,000
0 - 0
Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through January 20, 2021. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S.
Virgin Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).Global vaccinations climbing after slowing to start 2022
3.5 Cumulative vaccine doses administered Fully vaccinated by region (in billions)
(in billions)
3.0 China (2.96B) 4.07
2.5 India (1.60B)
European Union (800.2M) 2.79
2.0
United States (531.9M) World
1.5
Brazil (350.6M) (9.8B, not shown)
1.0 Indonesia (301.5M) 0.47 0.36 0.29 0.21 0.14
0.5
0.0 World Asia Europe North South United Africa
America America States
Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22
Daily pace of vaccine doses administered in Global vaccine doses administered per day
25 China (7-DMA, in millions) 50 (7-DMA, in millions)
20 40
15 30 36.4
10 20
5 10
4.6
0 0
Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Data sources: Truist IAG, Our World in Data, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 20, 2021. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and
territories. Figures for the United Kingdom are not included in the European Union. 7-day moving average (DMA).About 75% of Americans adults are fully vaccinated (nearly 210 million) and
over 40% have received a booster
U.S. vaccinations (percentage of population) Number of Americans fully vaccinated
(in millions)
Fully vaccinated* At least one dose Booster dose 250 209.1
95.0%
85.3% 87.2% 88.1% 200
75.3% 72.1% 73.7%
63.2% 62.5%
150
39.3% 42.4%
100
50
% of total % of Americans % of adults % of Americans 0
population age 12 and over over 65 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22
U.S. pace of fully vaccinated U.S. COVID-19 percentage of cases and
2.0 (7-DMA, in millions) deaths by age
27.7%
26.0%
Cases Deaths
1.5 21.7% 22.1%
18.9%
16.8% 17.5%
1.0 13.7% 14.4%
0.5 0.07 7.0%
3.0% 4.0% 3.5%
1.8% 1.8%
0.0% 0.1% 0.8%
0.0
Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 0-4 5-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Data sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left, bottom right: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 20, 2021. Top right, bottom left: Our World in Data,
Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 20, 2022. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories. *Fully vaccinated is defined as receiving
two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or receiving a single-dose vaccine regimen.Activity-based trends seasonally weak following the holidays
NY Fed weekly economic index U.S. community mobility (7-day average)
75
12% 50
8% 25
4% 0
-25
0%-4.6%
-50
-4% Grocery & Pharmacy Transit
-75 Workplaces Parks
-8% -100 Residential Retail & Recreation
-12%
Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
OpenTable bookings year-over-year TSA checkpoint traveler throughput
% change (7-day average) (7-day average, in millions)
10% 3 2019 2020 2021 2022
-5%
2
-20%
1.45
-35%
1
-50% -24.5%
-65% 0
-80% 1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361
Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Day of the year
Data sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left: Bloomberg, NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index through January 15, 2022. Top right: (U.S. Community Mobility) Google
COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports 7-day average through January 11. Bottom left: Bloomberg, OpenTable 7-day average through January 20. Bottom right: Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration (TSA)
7-day average through January 20.Omicron cases appear to be peaking in the U.S.
Regional trends continue to look ugly. However, some of the states that were early in the spike from omicron infections higher – such as New York, New
Jersey, Illinois, and Ohio – appear to be peaked last week. Meanwhile, cases in California are climbing states dramatically higher, while infections in
Texas and Florida are bouncing around.
COVID-19 new cases by region COVID-19 new cases – select states
(7-day moving average) (7-day moving average)
West Midwest Northeast South Texas
140,000 Ohio
350,000
California
120,000
300,000 Illinois
100,000 New Jersey
250,000 New York
80,000
200,000
60,000
150,000
40,000
100,000
20,000
50,000
-
-
Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
Data source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University, data through January 20, 2022.Rate of U.S. hospitalizations clearly peaked last week
The national average is 21% of hospital beds are occupied by COIVD-19 patients. Still 23 states, plus Washington, D.C., are currently above 20%.
Change in hospitalizations (7-DMA)
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
385
0
-2,000
-4,000
Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Department of Health & Human Services. Data through January 20, 2022.23 states have COVID-19 patients occupying over 20% of hospital beds, but
key states are peaking
The national average of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients is at 21%, down after briefly touching 22.3% this past week. New York state, which
was among the worst hotspots, saw the number of hospitalizations drop this week. Still, 23 states, plus Washington, D.C., are currently above 20%.
Percentage of inpatient beds occupied by Number of inpatient beds occupied by
30% COVID-19 patients COVID-19 patients – New York
16,000
25% 14,000
21%
20% 12,000
15% 10,000
8,000
10%
6,000
5%
4,000
0%
Nevada
Ohio
Utah
Alabama
Vermont
Missouri
Virginia
Colorado
Indiana
North Dakota
Wyoming
DC
Kentucky
US Average
Michigan
Texas
Minnesota
Nebraska
Idaho
Georgia
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
2,000
Massachusetts
-
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Department of Health & Human Services. Data through January 20,
2022.U.S. school-aged new cases jumped after winter break
The total number of new COVID-19 cases of school-
New COVID-19 cases of school-aged children
aged children jumped to 13.5% of all new U.S. cases
in the first week after winter break.
as a percentage of total new U.S. cases
New cases in the 5-11 age group rose to 6.3% in the Total cases (r-axis) Ages 5-11 (l-axis)
past week. Meanwhile, the 12-15 age cohort rose for
Ages 12-15 (l-axis) Ages 16-17 (l-axis)
a second straight week to 4.6% and the 16-17 age
group held steady at 2.8%. 7% 6.3% 14.0%
There’ve been 765 deaths in school-aged children 6.2% 13.5%
during the entire pandemic, or 0.1% of all U.S. 6.0%
6% 5.8% 13.0%
COVID deaths. 5.6%
5.4%
5.1% 12.5%
4.9%
5% 4.7% 12.0%
4.5%
4.2% 4.3% 11.5%
4.6%
4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 11.0%
4.1% 4.2%
3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 10.5%
3% 10.0%
2.8% 9.5%
2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
2% 9.0%
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
Data sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Data from July 29, 2021 through January 20, 2021.Easing of massive West Coast port traffic continuing
The two largest U.S. ports—Los Angeles and Long
Ships in port of LA/Long Beach
Beach—share San Pedro Bay. Prior to late 2020,
most ships never anchored in San Pedro Bay aside 180 Total ships Container ships anchored* 167
from rare occasions due to storms, maintenance, or
an accident, and it would be a handful of ships if it did 160
occur. In 2021, an average of 54 container ships
carrying cargo were anchored* per day, peaking at
109 in early November. It has fallen to 37 this week. 140
Meanwhile, the ports have averaged 1.7 million
containers per month in 2021, which is above the pre- 120
pandemic all-time record of 1.66 million set back in 109
October 2018. 100
80 91
60
40
37
20
0
Nov-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Dec-21
Sources: Truist IAG, Marine Exchange of Southern California; data from November 12, 2020 through January 14, 2022.
* Container ships anchored includes anchored, loitering or in designated drift areas.Temp staffing levels rebound after the typical lull around the holidays
Temp positions are traditionally very seasonal,
U.S. staffing index
making the data is quite volatile especially around
holidays. In the first full week of January, the staffing 120
index rebounded to 96.8, which is in-line with the 96.9
average during 2021.
110
Also, an increase indicates a need for more workers,
a good harbinger of eventually increasing permanent
jobs. 100 96.8
90
80
70
60
50
Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21
Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, American Staffing Association through January 10, 2022. The index tracks weekly changes in
temporary and contract employment, with a reference value set at 100 for the week of June 12, 2006. Figures are not seasonally
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